证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the CSI 300 Utilities (secondary industry) index reported at 2669.83 points [1] - The CSI 300 Utilities index has decreased by 1.10% over the past month, increased by 5.80% over the past three months, and has declined by 1.36% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 index categorizes its 300 sample stocks into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the CSI 300 Utilities index are: Changjiang Electric (49.31%), China Nuclear Power (10.16%), Three Gorges Energy (8.03%), Guodian Power (5.52%), State Power Investment (4.65%), Huaneng International (4.17%), Chuanwei Energy (4.09%), China General Nuclear Power (3.81%), Zhejiang Energy (2.82%), and Huadian International (2.5%) [1] - The market share of the CSI 300 Utilities index is dominated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 95.87%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 4.13% [2] - In terms of industry composition, hydropower constitutes 60.36%, thermal power 15.01%, nuclear power 13.97%, wind power 8.36%, and gas power 2.31% of the index [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the regular sample adjustments, which occur at the same time as the index sample adjustments [2] - Temporary adjustments to the index samples occur when the CSI 300 index undergoes changes, and special events affecting sample companies may also lead to corresponding adjustments in the CSI 300 industry index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The total installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power in China has surpassed 1 billion kilowatts, marking a significant advancement in the development of renewable energy [1] Group 1: Installed Capacity Growth - In the first five months of this year, the cumulative newly connected capacity reached nearly 20 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 57% [1] - The total installed capacity of PV power in China has reached 1.08 billion kilowatts, equivalent to approximately 48 Three Gorges power stations, accounting for 30% of the country's total power generation capacity and nearly half of the global PV installed capacity [1] Group 2: Industry Competitiveness - The achievement of 1 billion kilowatts in installed capacity not only signifies a substantial amount of clean electricity but also fosters a complete and internationally competitive PV industry chain [1] - There are over 1 million enterprises in China's PV industry chain, generating an annual output value exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Key materials such as high-purity crystalline silicon are now under domestic control, with continuous breakthroughs in large-sized silicon wafers, high-efficiency battery technology, and record-high component efficiency [1] - The integration of smart inverters and energy storage systems showcases the leading technological level of various segments within China's PV industry chain [1] Group 4: Shift in Energy Mix - As of the end of May, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power was approximately 1.46 billion kilowatts, with its share of the total power generation capacity in China decreasing to about 40% [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration between China and Russia in the context of evolving international dynamics, highlighting the need to maintain supply chain stability and support multilateral trade systems [5][8] - The macroeconomic environment in China shows signs of gradual recovery, with consumer spending and investment being the main drivers of growth, while the A-share market is expected to experience steady fluctuations [9][12] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and dividend-paying assets for investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, driven by supportive policies and improving market conditions [15][30] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,359.90, down 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,005.03, down 0.47% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.83 and 36.38 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][17] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced declines, with the Dow closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the S&P 500 at 3,801.78, down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines several industry strategies for the second half of 2025, focusing on technology self-sufficiency, boosting domestic consumption, and identifying dividend-paying assets as key investment themes [15][32] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its potential growth due to increasing demand for domestic production capabilities amid external pressures [26][34] Key Data Updates - The report includes updates on stock performance, with significant trading volumes indicating active market participation, and highlights the importance of monitoring market trends and external factors [7][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and telecommunications for potential investment opportunities, given their expected growth trajectories [23][30] - Specific companies within the semiconductor and AI sectors are identified as having strong growth potential, driven by technological advancements and market demand [27][34]

证券代码：601669 股票简称：中国电建 公告编号：临 2025-034 中国电力建设股份有限公司 2025 年 1 月至 5 月主要经营情况公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 现将中国电力建设股份有限公司2025年1月至5月主要经营情况公布如下，供投 资者参阅。 一、按业务类型统计 | 业务类型 | 新签项目数量（个） | 新签合同金额 | 同比增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源电力 | 2408 | 3012.48 | 4.44% | | 水电 | 488 | 653.87 | 60.66% | | 其中：抽水蓄能 | 238 | 256.51 | 4.63% | | 风电 | 531 | 1018.01 | 67.33% | | 太阳能发电 | 482 | 854.81 | -32.61% | | 火电 | 224 | 146.99 | -62.28% | | 新型储能 | 65 | 107.50 | / | | 其他 | 618 | 231.30 | / | | ...

Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

强化燃料采购管理，严格供应商资质审查与入厂煤质量验收标准。确保燃料品质符合要求，从源头规避 因燃料问题（如高硫、高灰、高水分、异物等）引发的设备磨损、结焦、腐蚀、甚至锅炉灭火等运行风 险。严控劣质燃料入厂，就是为设备健康运行筑起第一道屏障。 保障输煤皮带、碎煤机、给煤机、管道阀门等）安全可靠运行是燃料"颗粒归仓"的关键。加强巡检频次 与质量，及时发现并消除皮带跑偏、撕裂、堵煤、设备异常振动等隐患。严格执行设备定期维护保养制 度，确保系统时刻处于良好备用状态。畅通的"粮道"，是机组"饱腹"的保障。 值此全国"安全生产月"活动如火如荼开展之际，国能大武口热电有限公司聚焦火电厂稳定运行的核心命 脉——燃料保供安全。保障燃料的安全、稳定、充足供应，不仅是满足机组"口粮"的基本需求，更是夯 实全厂安全生产根基、履行能源保供社会责任的首要前提。安全保供，须臾不可放松！ 安全生产月是集中强化安全意识的契机，但安全保供的弦必须时刻紧绷。让国能大武口热电有限公司 以"时时放心不下"的责任感，以更坚定的决心、更扎实的举措、更严谨的作风，全力以赴抓好燃料保供 各环节的安全工作。只有确保燃料供应的全程安全，才能为机组的安全稳定运行提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains an "outperform" investment rating for the power and utilities sector based on industry development prospects, performance growth expectations, and valuation levels [1] Industry Overview - The power and utilities sector is characterized by strong defensiveness and stable performance growth, with projected revenue and net profit growth in 2024 [1] - As of June 15, 2025, the power and utilities index increased by 2.25%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.05 percentage points [1] Subsector Analysis - Hydropower shows the most stable performance and highest dividend ratio, while nuclear power is affected by declining market electricity prices [2] - In 2024, power generation companies contributed over 82% of the net profit in the power and utilities sector [2] - Hydropower revenue and net profit are expected to grow due to favorable water conditions and reduced financial costs [2] Investment Themes - Hydropower is highlighted as a representative of dividend assets with a deep natural monopoly and significant profit potential due to low generation costs [3] - Long-term investment focus is recommended on major hydropower operators such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Chuanwei Energy [3] - Coal-fired power is gradually enhancing its utility attributes, with a recommendation to consider the joint development of hydropower and coal-fired power by Guotou Power [3] - Nuclear power operators are expected to maintain strong profitability, although market price declines may impact their performance in 2025 [3] - New energy generation faces challenges from declining average electricity prices despite rapid capacity growth [3]

今年以来，长城发电公司已在西北网调完成启停调峰4次，既保障了区域电力充足供 应，又展现了机组灵活性调节能力，在新能源大力发展的背景下，充分发挥了火电"压舱 石"的关键作用。 走进几十米高的发电厂房，一台巨大的汽轮机正以每分钟3000转的转速带动发电机组高 速运转，震耳的轰鸣声让人们切身感受到"大工业"的强烈震撼，发电机产生的强大电力正从 这里通过±800千伏特高压直流输电线路，送到1200多公里外的用电大省山东。 这是日前笔者在位于内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市上海庙能源化工基地的内蒙古能源集团长 城发电公司内看到的场景。 深度调峰 做好能源保供"压舱石" "这里有两台100万千瓦高效超超临界燃煤发电机组，是国家大气污染防治行动计划中确 定的重点输电通道——上海庙至山东临沂±800千伏特高压直流输电工程配套电源项目，属 于国家特急能源保供项目。"长城发电公司董事长赵志强说。 据介绍，这两台机组于2023年7月和9月先后投产，设计年发电量可达110亿千瓦时，可 向山东省持续输送稳定电力，有效缓解我国东部电力供应紧张的局面。 据了解，目前这条"昭沂直流"的输电通道同时输送火电和新能源电力，并采用新能源电 力优先的模式。但 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose only 0.4% last week, closing at 23,892 points, influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.9% to 5,239 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.7%, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains[1] - The healthcare sector index surged by 8.8%, and the materials index rose by 7.0%, driven by gold and non-ferrous metal stocks[1] Economic Indicators - May's core CPI showed mild growth, while PPI's decline widened, indicating uneven economic recovery[1] - Export data was supported by "grabbing exports" and "grabbing transshipments," but imports fell more than expected, reflecting weak domestic demand[1] - M1's year-on-year growth accelerated to 2.3%, the highest since January 2024, indicating improved business activity[1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector saw a continued interest in new consumption stocks, with companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mx Group rising between 2% and 11% last week[3] - The automotive sector experienced a decline, with traditional car manufacturers averaging a drop of 1.3% and new energy vehicle companies down 3.8%[3] - The healthcare index rose 8.5%, with major players like China Biopharmaceuticals announcing significant overseas licensing deals[3] Investment Recommendations - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index has recovered to around the 60th percentile over the past seven years, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the second half of the year[2] - Short-term outlook indicates a lack of catalysts for the market, with expectations of high-level consolidation and sector rotation opportunities[2] - Focus on defensive dividend sectors (energy, telecommunications) and relatively undervalued, high-growth potential stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index[2] Company Insights - Weisheng Holdings is projected to see net profits rise from RMB 710 million in FY24 to RMB 1.4 billion in FY27, with a CAGR of 25.7%[5] - The company has been rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.20, reflecting a 23.8% upside potential[5] - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its strong overseas licensing potential, with companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biopharmaceuticals showing promising growth prospects[10][13]