证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周美股、A 股领涨全球股指，其中纳指、标普 500 指数再创新高，沪指一度逼近 3500 点。行业板 块方面，煤炭、有色、建材（光伏）等周期板块在"反内卷"政策预期下表现突出，银行指数在上周五大跌后再 度回升，创历史新高。此外，美越贸易协议和中美贸易关系缓和交易下，部分消费电子、纺织服饰等板块也有表 现。外汇方面，美元指数持续走低，弱美元下全球商品价格普遍走强，国内螺纹钢、双焦价格也从底部反弹。 ·市场展望：下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变。短期来看，全球市场定价核心在于 7 月 9 日 美国与各国贸易协定进展，此前美国总统特朗普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限，但此种表态也可能是一种谈 判策略，美国对部分国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增长动能强劲，全年经济增速目标达成的压力减 轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终结果如何，出口对增长 ...

| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

Core Insights - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 360.598 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 1.783 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in financing activities [1][2] - On July 3, the ChiNext index rose by 1.90%, and the total margin balance reached 361.652 billion yuan, reflecting a healthy market sentiment [1][2] Financing Balance Growth - A total of 530 stocks in the ChiNext saw an increase in financing balance, with 33 stocks experiencing a growth rate exceeding 10% [1][3] - The stock with the highest increase in financing balance is Xinling Electric, which saw a rise of 81.43% to 60.5776 million yuan, despite a 5.00% drop in its stock price [1][3] - Other notable stocks with significant financing balance growth include Jiama Clothing and Dongyue Silicon Materials, with increases of 65.73% and 40.01% respectively [1][3] Market Performance of Stocks - Among the stocks with over 10% increase in financing balance, the average price increase on the same day was 2.30%, with notable gainers including Honggong Technology, Jiangxin Home, and Tongguan Copper Foil, which rose by 15.98%, 14.79%, and 13.67% respectively [1][2][4] - Conversely, stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products and Xinling Electric faced declines of 7.57% and 5.00% respectively [1][2][4] Financing Balance Decline - A total of 403 stocks experienced a decline in financing balance, with 11 stocks showing a decrease of over 10% [4][5] - The stock with the largest decline in financing balance is Zerun New Energy, which fell by 19.89% to 41.285 million yuan [4][5] - Other stocks with significant declines include Haojiang Intelligent and Darui Electronics, with decreases of 16.92% and 15.33% respectively [4][5]

7月3日，A股市场整体上涨。 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出48.18亿元，尾盘净流入4.1亿元，全天净流出24.75亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 人提供随圆 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-7-3 | -24. 75 | -48. 18 | 4. 10 | 36. 21 | | 2025-7-2 | -331.90 | -120. 22 | -18.91 | -157.53 | | 2025-7-1 | -231. 12 | -105.84 | -1.95 | -90. 80 | | 2025-6-30 | -39.95 | -29.38 | 12. 66 | 17.18 | | 2025-6-27 | -154. 13 | -87.80 | -22.52 | -36. 69 | 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出超60亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出66.99亿元，创业板净流出12.37亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据( ...

| 综合 | | | | 中程退 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -0.54 | 262.71 | -17.23 | 合金投资 | -6.93 | | 钢铁 | -0.94 | 69.95 | 118.77 | 盛德鑫泰 | -7.00 | | 煤炭 | -1.12 | 36.37 | 90.78 | 大有能源 | -3.02 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指跌0.12%，A股成交量505.05亿股，成交金额5863.66亿 元，比上一个交易日减少11.63%。个股方面，2554只个股上涨，其中涨停35只，2567只个股下跌，其 中跌停4只。从申万行业来看，电子、美容护理、纺织服饰等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.11%、1.00%、 0.96%；煤炭、钢铁、有色金属等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.12%、0.94%、0.54%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Jin Hong Group is a leading fashion group in China, with a diverse brand matrix that includes high-end women's wear brands VGRASS, mid-to-high-end retro academy style brand TEENIEWEENIE, and high-end boutique brand Yuanxian, catering to different consumer segments and sharing resources for product development and channel expansion [3][17] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.395 billion yuan in 2024, with TEENIEWEENIE contributing 3.477 billion yuan (80% of total revenue) and VGRASS contributing 780 million yuan (18% of total revenue) [3][23] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 4.786 billion yuan, 5.127 billion yuan, and 5.433 billion yuan respectively, with net profit growth of 8%/23%/11% [5][96] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jin Hong Group is a top-tier fashion group in China, focusing on high-end women's wear design, production, and sales, with brands targeting various consumer demographics [17][31] Brand Performance - TEENIEWEENIE is the core brand, with a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in 2024 and a gross margin of 67%. The brand has shown a CAGR of 8% from 2018 to 2024 [4][46] - VGRASS, a high-end women's wear brand, generated 780 million yuan in 2024, down 19% year-on-year [31][23] - Yuanxian, focusing on traditional cloud brocade craftsmanship, achieved a revenue of 81.37 million yuan in 2024, growing 64% year-on-year [5][72] Financial Analysis - The company maintained a gross margin of approximately 70%, with 2024's gross margin at 68.63% [78] - The company has been managing its financial expenses effectively, with a gradual reduction in debt pressure expected to enhance profit margins [83][84] - Inventory turnover days have decreased to 255 days, indicating improved operational efficiency [88] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% for 2025-2027, with net profit expected to grow by 8%/23%/11% during the same period [92][96] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.52 [6][93] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Jin Hong Group's valuation is below the industry average, with a P/E ratio of 11/9/8 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for valuation appreciation due to its rich IP resources and cultural heritage [93][96]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as the official strategic partner of the Suzhou Super League, which has gained significant popularity, enhancing brand exposure and sales conversion [7] - The company has a strong historical performance in sports sponsorship, including the Wuxi Marathon, which further strengthens its brand value [7] - The expected recovery in retail sales in Q2 2025 is anticipated due to the high-profile events and partnerships [7] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected static dividend yield of 5.6% based on the current stock price [7] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a steady increase in net profit from 24.1 billion in 2025 to 30.5 billion in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 15 to 12 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 20,957 million in 2024 to 27,004 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 10% [3][17] - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,159 million in 2024 to 3,047 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 12.6% in 2027 [3][17] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 44.5% in 2024 to 47.6% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][17] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 12.7% in 2024 to 16.4% in 2027, showcasing improved profitability [3][17]

截至收盘，上证指数报收3457.75点，上涨0.39%；深证成指收于10476.29点，上涨0.11%；创业板指下 跌0.24%；科创50指数下跌0.86%。 | 605006 | 山东玻纤 | 7.39 | 8.15 | 710.06 | 5247.38 | 建筑材 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 料 | | 603936 | 博敏电子 | 10.37 | 11.69 | 495.73 | 5140.68 | 电子 | | 603091 | 众鑫股份 | 69.60 | 10.08 | 73.46 | 5112.57 | 轻工制 | | | | | | | | 造 | | 000900 | 现代投资 | 4.65 | 3.59 | 1098.30 | 5107.1 1 | 交通运 | | | | | | | | 输 | | 600353 | 旭光电子 | 14.67 | 12.69 | 321.23 | 4712.44 | 电子 | | 002102 | 能特科技 | 3.48 | 4.70 | 1317.38 | 45 ...