Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 779, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 week - on - week; PB powder is at 782, down 3 and up 3 respectively; Macfarlane powder is 770, down 1 and up 4; Jinbuba powder is 749, down 2 and down 1; Super Special powder is 688, up 3 and up 15; Carajás powder is 897, up 3 and up 6 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 805, down 5 and down 11; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 787, down 3 and up 3; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 792, down 3 and up 3 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; 61% Indian powder is 738, down 2 and down 1; Karara concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; Roy Hill powder is 752, down 3 and up 3; KUMBA powder is 841, down 3 and up 3; 57% Indian powder is 628, down 2 and up 10; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 and up 4; Tangshan iron concentrate is 996, up 7 and up 7 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 789.5, down 2.0 and up 2.0; i2605 is 765.0, down 2.5 and up 1.5; i2509 is 834.5, up 3.5 and up 31.5 [1]. - **FE Contracts**: FE01 is 101.53, up 2.31 and down 1.46; FE05 is 99.16, up 2.35 and down 1.47; FE09 is 104.67, up 2.12 and up 0.47 [1]. Price Differences - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, it's 45.0, with a day - change of - 3.4 and a week - change of - 7.5; for i2605, it's 24.5, with a day - change of - 2.9 and a week - change of - 7.0; for i2509, it's - 69.5, with a day - change of - 8.9 and a week - change of - 37.0 [1]. - **Other Price Differences**: FE01 has a price difference of 3.14, with a day - change of 1.9 and a week - change of 12.7; FE05 has a price difference of 2.37, with a day - change of 0.4 and a week - change of 13.8; FE09 has a price difference of - 5.51, with a day - change of 7.3 and a week - change of 16.1 [1].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 进入旺季需求检验时点 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/09/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算8月全球铁矿石发运周均值3277.54万吨，环比+204.54万吨；8月，澳洲发往中国周均值1462.02万吨，较上月变化+43.57万吨。 巴西发运量周均值892.78万吨，较上月变化+78.71万吨。45港到港量周均值2457.12万吨，较上月环比+17.70万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算8月国内日均铁水产量239.72万吨，较上月变化-1.54万吨。 ◆ 库存：8月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13763.02万吨，较上月末变化+76.79万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值320.72万吨，较上月变 化+1.55万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值298.01万吨，较上月变化-2.40万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral situation in terms of fundamentals, a bullish situation in terms of basis and price trend on the disk, and a bearish situation in terms of the main positions. The market is also affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' molten iron production has started to decrease, and the arrival volume this month has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there are plans for crude steel production reduction and trade - war easing, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - equivalent prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend in Rizhao Port have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 14388.02 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions of iron ore are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Positive Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - The terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - The latest prices of Newman powder, PB powder, and Mac powder are 781, 785, and 771 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 10, and 11, and weekly changes of 4, 4, and 4 [1] - The latest prices of Kumba powder, 57% Indian powder, and Atlas powder are 844, 630, and 720 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 9, and 13, and weekly changes of 4, 12, and 7 [1] - The latest price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 989, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 3 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - The latest prices of i2601, i2605, and i2509 are 791.5, 767.5, and 831.0 respectively, with daily changes of 14.5, 13.0, and 18.0, and weekly changes of 1.0, 2.0, and 20.0 [1] - The latest prices of FE01, FE05, and FE09 are 99.97, 97.60, and 103.34 respectively, with daily changes of 1.47, 1.54, and 1.63, and weekly changes of -1.62, -1.60, and 0.84 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period was 3657 (+24) million tons. Specifically, Australia's shipping volume decreased quarter - on - quarter, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries' shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter. The domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 (+133) million tons, as the ore from the previous shipping peak period arrived successively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalog Global Shipping Volume - On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 241 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 107.9 million tons [3]. Shipping Volume by Region - **Australia**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 1811.5 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 69.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6 million tons. Rio Tinto and non - mainstream mines decreased quarter - on - quarter, FMG's shipping volume slightly decreased, and BHP's shipping volume increased. Overall, Australia's shipping volume decreased [2][3]. - **Brazil**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 996.6 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 184.9 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62.4 million tons. Vale's shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter, while non - mainstream mines decreased [2][3]. - **Non - mainstream countries**: The shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter [2]. Shipping Volume by Major Mines - **Rio Tinto**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 611 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 114.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 472.1 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 124.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **BHP**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 522.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.5 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 447.4 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 62 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **FMG**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 435 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60.9 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 388.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 28.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 70.9 million tons [3]. - **Vale**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 803.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 230.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.6 million tons [3]. Domestic Ore Arrival Volume - On August 29, 2025, the domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 132.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 316.8 million tons [3]. Shipping Ratio to China from Australia - On August 29, 2025, the ratio of Australia's shipping volume to China was 0.801, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.081 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01 [3].

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of iron ore is returning to fundamentals as the hype sentiment fades. In September, the price is expected to be under pressure in the early stage and may rebound later, showing a trend of being weak first and then strong [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 3, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $1 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan per ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator is narrowing [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, last week's shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals in September are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half [10]. - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is slightly higher and remains above 2.4 million tons. The production and demand of the five major steel products continue to rise slightly, the steel mill inventory continues to decline slightly, and the social inventory has reached a new high since early May [10]. - Market expectations of the September 3rd production restrictions may lead to a situation of weak supply and demand for steel. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 120 - 150 yuan per ton, which may suppress raw material demand to some extent, but the impact is limited [11]. - Steel mills have resumed on - demand restocking, and port inventories have accumulated, with further accumulation expected in September [11]. 2. Industry News - As of August 30, the nine major construction central enterprises announced their new contract values in the first half of 2025, with a total new contract value of approximately 7.957727 trillion yuan [12]. - On September 2, data from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to a decline in output. However, the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the price index reached its lowest level since February, indicating a reduction in price fluctuations caused by tariffs [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates, with data sources mainly from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [5][8][14][21][23][28][29][36][42][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. It mainly contains data on various iron ore varieties, including their latest prices, daily and weekly changes, import profits, and futures contract information. 3. Content Summary by Category Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ores**: Newman powder is priced at 771 with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly increase of 4; PB powder is at 775, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; Mac powder is 760, rising 5 daily and 3 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 740, down 1 daily and unchanged weekly; mainstream mixed powder is 712, up 5 daily and 4 weekly; Super Special powder is 676, up 6 daily and 16 weekly; Carajás powder is 887, up 8 daily and 8 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is 802, unchanged daily and down 5 weekly; Brazilian coarse ore IOC6 is 780, up 6 daily and 2 weekly; Brazilian coarse ore SSFG is 785, up 6 daily and 2 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 897, up 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 729, down 1 daily and unchanged weekly; Karara concentrate is 897, up 7 daily and 10 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 745, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; KUMBA powder is 834, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 621, up 6 daily and 16 weekly; Atlas powder is 707, up 5 daily and 4 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 986, up 4 daily and 3 weekly [1]. Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 777.0, up 5.5 daily and 1.5 weekly; i2605 is 754.5, up 4.5 daily and 1.0 weekly; i2509 is 813.0, up 11.0 daily and 16.5 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 99.22, down 3.30 daily and 2.38 weekly; FE05 is 96.81, down 3.28 daily and 2.38 weekly; FE09 is 102.55, down 0.95 daily and up 0.22 weekly [1]. Spread Information - **DCE Contract Spreads**: The monthly spread of i2601 is 36.0, with the latest value at 38.7, down 3.3 daily and 0.4 weekly; for i2605, it's 22.5, with 61.2, down 2.3 daily and up 0.1 weekly; for i2509, it's -58.5, with 2.7, down 8.8 daily and 15.4 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contract Spreads**: The spread of FE01 is 3.33, with -28.0, down 0.3 daily and up 17.1 weekly; for FE05, it's 2.41, with -30.1, up 1.0 daily and 18.0 weekly; for FE09, it's -5.74, with -24.3, down 6.3 daily and up 6.1 weekly [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]