周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、焦炭 下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生变大 幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎司，周 跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金总需 求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴国家 央行延续购金态势，进一步 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The A-share market is expected to experience a short - term correction, while the mid - term performance depends on economic and policy efforts. A long - term and stable bull market also requires fundamental support [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: The stock market faces short - term adjustment pressure. The recent sharp correction will calm the market, and the weakening PMI in January indicates that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns [10] - **This - week Key Events**: - On January 26, Premier Li Qiang held a symposium to listen to opinions on the "Government Work Report" [11] - On January 27, it was announced that the industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year [12] - On January 29, Chinese leaders met with the British Prime Minister, and both sides agreed to develop a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership [13][14] - On January 29, the State Council issued a plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [15] - On January 30, it was reported that in December 2025, China had a goods trade surplus of 853.3 billion yuan and a service trade deficit of 96.6 billion yuan [16] 2. One - week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.65%, with emerging markets (+1.80%) > developed markets (+0.50%) > frontier markets (-0.13%). The South Korean stock market rose 8.0%, while the Canadian stock market fell 2.03% [17] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, Chinese equities declined. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0636 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Most of the A - share broad - based indexes fell, with the Shanghai 50 Index rising 1.13% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index falling 3.59% [20] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most of the global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the energy industry leading (+4.16%) and the optional consumption industry having the largest decline (-1.33%). In the Chinese market, the energy industry had the largest increase (+6.42%), and the optional consumption industry lagged (-4.21%) [23] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among the A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 rose (20 last week) and 20 fell (10 last week). The petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest increase (+6.92%), and the national defense and military industry had the largest decline (-7.60%) [24] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The large - cap value style outperformed this week [29] - **Overview of Index Futures Basis**: Information about the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [30][33] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various broad - based indexes this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [40] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [41] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERP of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [42][47] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 8.35%, and in 2026 to 9.63%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 25.66%, and in 2026 was raised to 23.00%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 27.37%, and in 2026 was raised to 24.03% [48] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10 - year Treasury yield declined, the 1 - year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.1, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [57] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 50.6 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.7 billion yuan [56] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 13.2 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.2 billion shares [61][65] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate recovered after the Spring Festival [67] - **Consumption Side**: The second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [73] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials declined, while the prices of agricultural products rebounded [83]

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026/2/1 1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货铁合金周报 ——底部震荡，下方受到成本支撑 铁合金目前的矛盾是成本支撑与供需压力的博弈，形成底部有支撑，上方有压力的震荡格局。 供应端，铁合 金利润回升但仍未摆脱亏损区间，铁合金产量减产至目前的状态下继续大幅减产的可能性不大，预计产量维 持目前水平上下小幅波动，硅铁产量处于近几年历史同期最低点的水平，硅锰产量处于近几年历史同期中下 的水平。硅铁产量环比上周+0.10%，硅锰产量环比上周-0.43% 。需求端，钢厂利润近期尚可，盘面利润走 强，给了钢厂套保的机会，后续钢厂可能有复产和增产的驱动，铁水产量可能稳中回升，但下游终端钢材进 入消费淡季，消费需求季节性走弱，对铁合金的需求增量有限。库存端，硅铁库存环比上周+0.10%，硅铁仓 单库存环比上周-6.55%；硅锰库存环比上周+0.08%，硅锰仓单库存环比上周+6.70%， 硅锰库存基数仍偏 大，为近5年库存最高水平，去库压力较大，仍要需要减产来实现，并且仓单数量的增加对盘面也造成一定的 压力。 铁合金下方受到成 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）近期，贵金属期货价格剧烈波动。为确保市场正常交易，全球主要期货交易所持续加码风控措施，通过提高交易保证金比例等方 式为市场投机情绪降温。 美国芝商所集团于当地时间1月30日发布公告，宣布上调多个贵金属期货保证金比例。黄金方面，非高风险账户的保证金将从合约名义价值的6%提高至 8%，而高风险账户的保证金则从6.6%上调至8.8%。白银方面，非高风险账户的保证金将从合约名义价值的11%提高至15%，而高风险账户的保证金则从 12.1%提高至16.5%。此外，铂金和钯金期货的保证金比例也有所上调。 此次保证金调整将于当地时间下周一，即2月2日收盘后正式生效。芝商所集团表 示，此举基于对市场波动的定期评估，旨在确保保证金能够充分覆盖交易风险。 此外，上海期货交易所也于1月30日宣布，自2月3日收盘结算时起，上调白银期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和保证金比例。涨跌停板幅度从16%调整为17%， 套保持仓交易保证金比例从17%调整为18%，一般持仓交易保证金比例从18%调整为19%。 此前，黄金期货相关合约套保持仓交易保证金比例已从16%上调 至17%，一般持仓交易保证金比例从17%上调至18%，这一调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contradiction of finished steel products is that the blast furnace operating rate remains high due to good steel mill profits, but terminal demand gradually shrinks before the Spring Festival, leading to a lack of trading volume and inventory accumulation. Constrained by cost support and policies, the prices are in a range - bound state [1]. - The profit of electric arc furnaces continues to weaken, and there are signs of marginal weakening in blast furnace profits. In the short - term, steel mills may continue to increase production, and the possibility of significant production cuts is low [1]. - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils will weaken seasonally, and the inventory of rebar will continue to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - The steel mill's iron ore inventory replenishment is accelerating and may end next week. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high, but high blast furnace operating rates and potential increases in molten iron production will support iron ore prices. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. - Steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Electric arc furnace profits weaken due to the narrowing of the iron - scrap price difference, while blast furnace profits remain stable. Steel mills may continue to increase production in the short - term [1]. - Demand side: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils weakens seasonally. Rebar inventory will continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - Raw material side: Iron ore inventory replenishment by steel mills is accelerating and may end soon. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: Steel mill profits are good, providing opportunities for hedging. Iron ore port inventory is rising, and the replenishment logic is weakening. Terminal demand is shrinking, and high blast furnace operating rates support iron ore prices. The nomination of the new Fed Chairman may impact market liquidity [6]. - Long - term trading expectations include anti - involution expectations for steel production cuts, demand support from major projects in the first year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and export controls [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [7]. - Month - spread strategy: Wait and see. Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [7]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits, and sell call options to reduce costs [7]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low inventory, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 1.4 Data Overview - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices: Most prices decreased slightly compared to the previous week [8]. - Hot - rolled coil overseas data: Most export and import prices increased slightly compared to the previous week [9]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Bullish information: Good steel mill profits and high operating rates support iron ore prices. Hot - rolled coil inventory is in a de - stocking trend. Coking coal operating rates are seasonally weak, supporting coking coal prices [9][10]. - Bearish information: No relevant information provided. - Spot trading information: No relevant information provided. 2.2 Next - week Important Event Concerns - Next Monday: The US will release the January manufacturing PMI. - Next Wednesday: The US will release the January ADP employment figures. - Next Thursday: The US will release the weekly initial jobless claims. - Next Friday: The US will release the January unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [20]. Chapter 3:盘面解读 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - Basis: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts shows seasonal changes [17]. - Coil - rebar spread: The coil - rebar spread shows seasonal changes in different regions and contracts [19]. - Term structure: The term structure of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal futures shows different price differences at different time points [24][25]. - Month - spread structure: The month - spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures shows seasonal changes [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The profits of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, show different trends in the short - term and with raw material lag [36]. - The profit ratios of different steel products and the ratio of steel to iron ore and coke show seasonal changes [47]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The estimated export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal changes and has a leading relationship with export volume [52]. - The price differences between overseas and domestic hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between export profit and export orders are analyzed [57][59]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance and Forecast 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products show different year - on - year changes, and inventory is at a certain level [76]. 5.2 Supply Side and Forecast - The supply of steel is affected by factors such as molten iron and scrap steel consumption, steel mill profitability, production capacity, and maintenance [80]. 5.3 Demand Side and Forecast - The demand for steel, including crude steel apparent demand, consumption of five major steel products, and consumption of different types of steel, shows seasonal trends [90].

南华期货镍&不锈钢产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 镍不锈钢尾盘跳水，周内主要跟随大盘以及宏观层面情绪带动偏多，贵金属以及有色领跌带领盘面大幅回 调，资金面同步炒作对盘面指引较深。此外配额发放节奏持续笼罩上方，PT Vale称目前获批配额仅为生产需 求的30%，进一步做实配额缩减预期。印尼方面周中有加强布局下游终端电池领域叙事，中长期或对供需格 局造成影响，短期推动不足。基本面上目前改善有限。菲律宾以及印尼主要矿区均进入雨季，产量以及装船 量均会受到影响，矿端发运受限。新能源方面目前价格跟随镍价上涨，节前大多厂商已经完成备货，目前高 价下进一步采购意愿不足。镍铁跟随盘面同步反弹，前期龙头采购价上行，但是目前成本高企下下游接受意 愿有所降低。不锈钢周内震荡偏强。目前盘面较高情况下库存有一定上升。现货方面盘价持续上调，试图借 趋势挺价，但是节前实际高位成交有限，下游高价接受度较低，目前多空博弈不减。 近端交易逻辑 —尾盘深度回调，受大盘影响为主 当前镍不锈钢期货盘面的近端逻辑以宏观以及大盘指引为主，近期贵金属以及有色均有不同程度的调整，沪 镍近期交易逻辑有所淡化，跟随大盘波动偏多。此外印尼端政策扰动仍有余波，基本面底部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices driven by a sudden shift in policy expectations following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced liquidations across various asset classes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices experienced a historic drop, with spot gold falling over 12% and silver plunging more than 35%, marking the largest single-day declines in nearly 40 years [1][2]. - Gold prices fell from a peak of 5598.75 USD/oz to a low of 4682 USD/oz, closing at 4880.03 USD/oz, while COMEX gold futures dropped 8.35% [2]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with prices hitting a high of 121.65 USD/oz before plummeting to 74.28 USD/oz, closing down 26.42% [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Warsh's nomination is perceived as a shift towards a more hawkish stance for the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the previously supportive narrative for gold prices, leading to a significant sell-off [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's approach may disrupt the narrative of central bank independence that had previously supported rising gold prices, resulting in a sharp increase in the dollar index [3]. Group 3: Margin Calls and Liquidation - The article highlights a vicious cycle of forced liquidations triggered by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a downward spiral of selling pressure [4][5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange and domestic exchanges raised margin requirements, exacerbating the liquidity crunch and forcing leveraged positions to liquidate [4][5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - Prior to the crash, the gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's RSI reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a correction [6]. - The implied volatility for gold ETFs surged to 39.67, reflecting a market with low tolerance for error and a need for significant price adjustments to absorb profit-taking and emotional premiums [6]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The article notes that retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at much higher prices [7]. - Retail policies regarding returns on gold products vary, with many retailers not accepting returns once the items are out of their possession, complicating consumer reactions to the price crash [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the sharp decline, gold and silver recorded substantial gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [8]. - Analysts express divided views on the future of gold and silver, with short-term volatility expected due to ongoing forced liquidations, while long-term trends may favor a shift away from the dollar and increased central bank gold purchases [8][9].

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 ★国债期货行情简评： Ø ★国债期货日频择时策略： ★风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债表现分化，30年期主力合约收跌-0.33%，十年期主力合约涨0.11%，五年期主力合约 涨0.01%，两年期主力合约收跌-0.02% Ø 上周各品种基差分化，十债CTD券为250018，30号基差收于0.05元左右，与历史平均水平持平； 三十年期CTD券为210005，30号基差收于0.27元，高于历史基差的平均水平。 Ø 期债受到金银铜等商品的影响较小，上周表现震荡偏弱。随着1月的经济数据逐渐公布，预计通胀 等数据不弱，同时市场对春节和两会的股市上涨有所 ...

"金价暴跌， 手里的黄金基金该怎么办？" "大跌正好， 趁低买些首饰， 过年佩戴正合适。" 北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅。现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，遭遇40年来 单日最大跌幅。受国际金价急速下挫传导影响，国内首饰金价同步迎来大幅回调。 记者走访本地市场了解到，终端足金金饰销售持续火热，黄金回收业务亦同步升温，市场交投氛围十分活跃。有消费者一次性购入足金饰品263克，单笔 消费金额超过36万元。 市民购金热情未减。 黄金白银贵金属价格 为何"高台跳水"？ 受访分析人士均指出，金银价格的急跌，是受沃什获提名的消息触发，随后跌速加快。此前大量涌入贵金属市场的资金开始集中获利了结，叠加美元指数 快速拉升，使得以美元计价的黄金和白银对海外投资者而言成本陡增。数据显示，美元指数当日一度上涨约0.8%，对贵金属（价格）形成明显压制。 业内人士表示，本轮金价大幅波动之下，市民投资与消费心态呈现鲜明分化：有人逢低果断抄底、配置金银实物，有人担忧后续继续下跌而急于变现避 险，还有不少基金及实物持有者面对剧烈行情手足无措，多元心态交织，共同推高了整体市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum experienced a stage of unexpectedly large pullbacks, while palladium declined in tandem and was in a weak consolidation phase. Both platinum and palladium are considered weak. The price ranges are 500 - 600 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract in Guangzhou and 400 - 480 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract in Guangzhou [3][4]. - Platinum reached below the annual target value of $3000 per ounce and then lost its upward momentum. The forward discount in the London platinum market rapidly converged, and the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve disappeared. The change in the forward structure was likely due to the profit - taking of overseas forward long positions in the arbitrage portfolio after the narrowing of the internal - external price difference. There is a risk of further decline in the daily and weekly dimensions, but in the monthly and quarterly levels, platinum is expected to regain lost ground and revise its valuation upwards [4]. - Palladium showed more resilience than platinum in this pullback. Its London liquidity is tightening, ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, and there is a small inventory build - up in the US. It is still too early to say that palladium has returned to fundamental pricing, and it is expected to generally follow the fluctuations of other precious metals [4]. - Due to the significant fluctuations in the precious metals sector, all unilateral positions are recommended to enter on the right - hand side, and protection can be set through short - option positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) Trading Volume and Open Interest - As of the end of this week, the total open interest of platinum in Guangzhou was 33,860 lots, and the trading volume this week was 159,187 lots. The total open interest of palladium in Guangzhou was 12,615 lots, and the trading volume this week was 83,402 lots. Both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The price of platinum contract 08 is the lowest, and the structures of both platinum and palladium have switched to the B structure. Since platinum and palladium are in the initial listing stage, the inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has not been disclosed [8]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - In the short term, platinum has a large pullback and is expected to oscillate at a low level. One can consider the long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is below 1.2. In the first half of this week, palladium made up for its gains, and platinum had a significant pullback on Thursday and Friday, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to rapidly converge. As of the close on Friday, the overseas platinum - palladium ratio was 1.27, and the ratio in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.36 [10][12]. Overseas Futures - Spot Spread - **Platinum**: The spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract showed a large - scale inversion on Thursday but basically returned to the flat - water level on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply, changing from - $155 per ounce to $283 per ounce within the week [15]. - **Palladium**: The spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract fluctuated within a narrow range, reaching $10 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an enlarged fluctuation, with an average value of $40.2 per ounce this week [19]. Arbitrage Costs | Arbitrage Type | Cost | Spread | Profit Window | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Platinum Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 8.2 yuan/gram | - 7.8 yuan/gram | Not opened [21] | | Palladium Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 6.3 yuan/gram | - 20 yuan/gram | Not opened [23] | | Platinum Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 8.4 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [25] | | Palladium Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 6.2 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [27] | | Platinum Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 74.1 yuan/gram | 88.5 yuan/gram | 14.4 yuan/gram profit window [29] | | Palladium Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 57.5 yuan/gram | 51 yuan/gram | Not opened [31] | | Platinum Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Platinum Forward, Sell 2606) | 71.6 yuan/gram | 100.5 yuan/gram | 28.9 yuan/gram profit window [33] | | Palladium Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Palladium Forward, Sell 2606) | 54.7 yuan/gram | 59.5 yuan/gram | Almost no profit window [35] | Recycling Spread - This week, the platinum recycling discount widened and then rebounded to the level of - 86 yuan/gram, while the palladium recycling discount rapidly widened to the magnitude of - 100 yuan/gram [37]. ETF Holdings - This week, the platinum ETF holdings increased by 2.93 tons (about 94,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.92 tons (about 29,600 ounces). Both platinum and palladium ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, but the prices dropped significantly on Friday, so the subsequent flow of ETFs needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) Forward Discount Rates - In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discounts has diverged. The platinum forward discount continued to converge significantly, and on Friday, it broke the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve from Monday to Thursday, with the full - term discount now within 6%. The palladium forward discount quickly increased, reaching the level of 4% on Friday [44]. Inventory and Registered Warrant Ratio - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 655,200 ounces, approximately 20.37 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants increased accordingly, reaching 51.6% on Friday [45]. - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased to 224,000 ounces, approximately 6.97 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants continued to decline to 63.7% [48]. China's Import - Export Data - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and there has been a divergence between imports and net inflows. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both imports and exports increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. - **Palladium**: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, imports further increased to 5.68 tons, with a net inflow of 5.63 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance - A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance reached - 170 kg on Wednesday and returned to a positive value around Thursday. The London palladium fixing supply - demand balance also reached - 170 kg on Wednesday [57][58][59].