Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the active performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (Guangfa, 520900) as the Chinese New Year approaches, highlighting the debate between holding stocks versus cash during the holiday period [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Recommendations - CITIC Securities believes that external disturbances have not significantly impacted the fundamental aspects of the Chinese industry, and the concentrated cooling operations have ended, suggesting that market sentiment has been fully released and adjustments are adequate, with a potential continuation of the spring market rally after the holiday [1] - Guangfa Securities indicates that during a bull market, every time the Wind All A Index falls below the 20-day moving average, it typically presents a good opportunity to increase positions within about a week, encouraging investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the market's upward cycle in the Year of the Horse [1] - Galaxy Securities notes that pre-holiday market hotspots are experiencing phase rotation, with low volatility and high dividend sectors such as dividends, banks, and consumer stocks likely to continue attracting funds, suggesting a balanced allocation as the market may maintain a range-bound fluctuation [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (Guangfa, 520900) and its offshore links (022719/022720) provide investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, allowing for a combination of stable returns and long-term value [1]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者卢梦雪 北京报道 又一省份切换农信社改革路线。 近日，甘肃省在2026年政府工作报告中明确提出"组建运营甘肃农商银行"，标志着该省正式放弃此前规 划的农商联合银行模式，转向省级统一法人的农商银行改革路径。 农商联合银行和省级农商银行最大的差别在于是否保留基层行社的法人地位。相关分析人士指出，农信 社改革是中小金融机构改革化险的重点，改革路线的切换既折射出部分省份在改革推进中的现实考量， 也反映出本轮农信社改革在顶层设计、模式选择上的探索与调整。 甘肃官宣转向：从联合银行到省级统一法人 作为西北重要的农业省份，甘肃农信系统是当地支农支小的主力军，改革动向备受市场关注。梳理时间 线可见，甘肃农信改革路径经历了清晰的转向过程。 2023年，甘肃省政府工作报告明确提出"稳妥推进农信社改革，组建甘肃农商联合银行"，按照此方案， 该省计划构建"省联社+县级法人行社"的二级法人体系，延续基层行社独立法人地位，是当时全国多地 探索的联合银行模式。 然而此后两年，甘肃省政府工作报告未再提及"联合银行筹建"相关内容，改革方向悄然调整。2025年， 甘肃省内多家农信机构在年度工作会议中 ...

今日周二(2月10日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于81.80一线上方，今日开盘于83.22美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报82.27美元/盎司，下跌0.95%，最高触及83.75美元/盎司，最低下探80.42美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 花旗策略师表示，美联储主席提名人沃什很可能会采取循序渐进的方式缩减美联储规模达6.6万亿美元 的资产组合，以避免重新引发货币市场紧张。任何重启缩表的尝试都可能再次给规模达12.6万亿美元的 回购市场带来压力。 花旗策略师表示："鉴于去年回购市场经历了剧烈波动，重启QT的门槛相当高。可以推测，FOMC会更 倾向于采取渐进式做法。"不过沃什领导下的美联储仍有多种方式缩减资产规模。 最小阻力路径可能是通过将到期的长期国债转换为短期债务，缩短持仓的加权平均期限；也可能选择将 目前约每月400亿美元的国库券购买规模下调，甚至完全停止；其他选项还包括允许其所持有的抵押贷 款支持证券自然到期。花旗预计，决策者将自4月中旬起把购债规模降至每月约200亿美元，并持续至年 底。 【最新comex白银行 ...

来源：中华合作时报农村金融 记者：李彩琴 导 读： 马百党是陕西省渭南市澄城县韦庄信用社魏家斜分社原主任兼信贷员，他用41年的职业生涯诠释了"乡 党的事就是最大的事" 。 作为马百党工作过的地方，澄城县农村信用合作联社始终锚定"走在前、做示范"目标，以党建引领 找准方向、以企业文化凝聚力量、以网格化营销巩固阵地，传承"背包精神"，谱写高质量发展新篇章。 2025年盛夏，电影《老马的背包》在北京举行了首映礼。之后不久，陕西省委金融委员会办公室、金融 工作委员会印发了《关于号召全省金融系统广大党员干部职工向马百党同志学习的倡议书》，陕西省农 村信用社联合社也发出向马百党同志学习倡议书，传承"背包精神"，培育中国特色金融文化。 这让澄城县农村信用合作联社干部职工倍感荣耀与激动。作为马百党工作过的地方，该联社始终锚 定"走在前、做示范"目标，以党建引领找准方向、以企业文化凝聚力量、以网格化营销巩固阵地，谱写 澄城联社高质量发展新篇章。 全面推进"一区一岗两队"红色先锋机制创建（即党员责任区，红星示范岗，红旗攻坚队和红马甲服务 队），与网格化营销、业务拓展、风险防控、客户服务深度融合，使党建工作真正成为推动发展的"红 ...

瑞银发表研报，将民生银行评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，基于其估值处于深度折让，2026年预测市账率 仅0.22倍；以及受益于营收改善及资产负债表风险已大规模释放，盈利很可能自2026年开始迎来拐点。 该行认为，市场当前仍以盈利压力将持续存在的定价逻辑来看待民行，而瑞银分析认为其拨备风险可能 已见顶。随着盈利预计在2026年达到平衡，并自2027年起转为正增长，该行认为其估值重评潜力将超过 近期的股本回报率疲软。瑞银将民行2026至29年每股盈利预防上调5-6%，但同时因短期市场波动，轻 微上调资金成本(CoE)至11.5%，目标价从5.43港元轻微下调至5.3港元。 ...

证券研究报告 2026.02.07 量化策略 量化策略周报（467）：静观其变 全周回顾：市场有所震荡，食品饮料与纺织服装强势，价值强于成长，贴水低位震荡 1）市场有所震荡：A 股市场在本周有所震荡，表征市场走势的宽基指数均有所下跌，最终沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指在本周涨跌幅分别为-1.33%、-2.68%、-3.28%。 2）食品饮料与纺织服装强势：本周食品饮料与纺织服装行业表现出色，涨幅在所有行业中排在前两 位，其它表现较好的行业还包括银行、电力设备及新能源、交通运输等。而有色金属与通信行业在本 周表现不佳，跌幅在所有行业中排名前两位，其它表现偏弱的行业还包括电子、计算机、传媒等。 3）价值强于成长：本周价值风格的收益强于成长风格，对应国证价值指数全周下跌 0.53%，而国证 成长指数全周下跌 1.99%。根据中金量化风格因子体系，本周表现较好的因子主要包括分红、低换 手、低流动性、低波动等。 4）贴水低位震荡：本周小盘股期指当季合约周均年化贴水震荡收窄。本周五 IH、IF、IC 和 IM 当季 年化基差率分别为-0.4%、-2.1%、-4.7%和-8.0%。IV 情绪指标本周一收盘发出开多仓信 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the software sector, highlighting a significant net selling and shorting activity, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [7][14]. Core Insights - The software industry has seen a substantial decline in valuation, with forward P/E ratios dropping from 35x at the end of 2025 to 20x currently, indicating a more comparable valuation to other sectors [14]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the software sector continues to show strong sales growth relative to other industries, suggesting potential for recovery [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming AI model updates and tools, which may maintain high volatility in sectors perceived to be at risk from AI disruption [10][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that many themes are experiencing high volatility, with the 10-day actual volatility for several indices at the 99th percentile since 2010, indicating a turbulent market environment [4]. - The software sector has been the most shorted and has seen a 55% increase in short positions year-to-date, reflecting investor caution [7]. Valuation Comparisons - Current P/E ratios for various sectors are provided, with the software sector at 26.9x for 2026, significantly lower than the previous year's 50.6x, indicating a major revaluation [9]. - The report highlights that while the software sector's earnings growth remains higher than other sectors, the recent sales growth and profit margins suggest a more reasonable valuation [7][11]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies regional banks as a favorable investment due to benefits from a steepening yield curve and regulatory easing, suggesting a positive outlook for this sector [8][31]. - The UK real estate sector is highlighted as undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by improving earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions [33][34]. Global Themes - The report discusses the importance of domestic manufacturing and national security themes, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, which may drive investment in these areas [36][40]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is noted as a potential catalyst for market movements, with historical data suggesting strong performance during this period [42].

Summary of Conference Call on Banking Sector Outlook Industry Overview - The conference focused on the banking sector, specifically discussing the performance and outlook of 11 listed banks in China for the year 2025 and beyond [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Overall Performance of Banks - The performance of the 11 banks exceeded expectations, indicating a robust resilience in the banking sector [1][6]. - The net interest margin (NIM) showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline contributing significantly to interest income and revenue growth [1][2]. 2. Sensitivity of Interest Income - Interest income is highly sensitive to changes in NIM; a decrease of 10 basis points (BP) in NIM could reduce net interest income growth by 7 percentage points, while a 5 BP decrease would result in a 3.5 percentage point reduction [2]. 3. Fee Income Recovery - There has been a recovery in fee income due to improved capital market conditions and asset allocation by residents, leading to a continuous improvement in bank fees [2][4]. 4. Potential for Old Bond Gains - The banks hold significant unrealized gains on old bonds, which presents a substantial opportunity for realization [3]. 5. Positive Outlook for 2026 - The overall judgment is that the situation in 2026 will be better than in 2025, driven by stable basis points, improving fees, and gains from old bonds [3]. 6. Investment Perspective - The investment strategy focuses on absolute returns, targeting a return on equity (ROE) of around 13% and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 times, indicating a reasonable pricing range [3][4]. - The recommendation is to select stocks based on high growth and high dividend yield, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Qilu [4][5]. 7. Performance of Specific Banks - Notable banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank showed positive revenue growth, with some banks transitioning from negative to positive growth [6][7]. - City commercial banks like Nanjing Bank and Qingdao Bank reported double-digit revenue growth, indicating strong performance [7][10]. 8. Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) - The asset quality remains stable, with many banks reporting a decrease in NPL ratios. For instance, Qingdao Bank's NPL ratio dropped significantly [10][11]. - The overall trend suggests a gradual improvement in asset quality, with expectations for continued stability in 2026 [11][12]. 9. Credit Growth and Demand - Credit growth is expected to remain strong, particularly in major provinces like Sichuan and Jiangsu, which reported credit growth rates above 8% [12][13]. - The demand for corporate loans remains robust, while retail loan demand is weaker [12]. 10. Future Risks and Projections - There are concerns regarding the potential exposure of retail loans, particularly in mortgage and consumer credit segments, but the overall increase in NPLs is expected to be limited [16][17]. - Projections for 2025 indicate a slight increase in NPL ratios for retail loans, but overall asset quality is expected to remain stable [17][18]. 11. Revenue Growth Expectations - The banking sector is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of approximately 1.2% year-on-year, with city commercial banks leading in net profit growth [19][20]. 12. Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy emphasizes high ROE and high dividend yield, with recommendations for both Hong Kong and A-share listed banks [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of wealth management in driving fee income, with expectations for continued positive contributions to revenue [19]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the banking sector's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the coming years [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing significant upward momentum following the Liberal Democratic Party's overwhelming victory in the recent elections, with expectations for the Nikkei index to reach 61,000 by year-end, driven by anticipated fiscal expansion under the new government [2][4]. Market Performance - On February 9, the Nikkei average rose by 2,110 points (3.89%) to close at 56,363, marking a historical high [4]. - Analysts predict a 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year 2026, with the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) expected to increase from 16 to 17 times, indicating further valuation upside [4]. Economic Policies and Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with concerns about the sustainability of recent gains and the lack of clear economic policies impacting corporate fundamentals [4]. - Three conditions are identified for the Nikkei to reach 60,000: effective policy execution by the new government, clarity on economic policies such as consumption tax cuts, and no adverse impact from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5]. Currency Outlook - The yen is expected to face depreciation pressure in the medium to long term, with forecasts suggesting a USD/JPY exchange rate between 152 and 162 in the coming month [6]. - Analysts believe that the new government's stable majority will allow for long-term policy implementation, but the trend towards yen depreciation is likely to continue [6][7]. Interest Rate Trends - Long-term interest rates are projected to remain between 2.0% and 2.5% by mid-year, with a slight increase to 2.2% to 2.7% by year-end, reflecting improved potential growth rates [7]. - The bond market may experience upward pressure on interest rates, although the space for significant increases is limited due to already factored-in fiscal risk premiums [7][8].

敬请您妥善安排业务办理时间。如需帮助，请拨打中国农业银行客户服务热线：95599。 2026年1月9日，中国农业银行（601288）发布公告称，中国人民银行支付系统拟定于2026年开启6次系 统维护窗口，分别为2026年3月22日、4月19日、6月14日、7月19日、9月13日、11月15日00:00开始， 6:00前结束。维护窗口开启期间，人民银行小额支付系统、网上支付跨行清算系统暂停受理业务。 ...