Group 1 - China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with automotive retail sales showing a decline [1] - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking ten consecutive months of actual retail sales growth, although consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in August [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlighted concerns over inflation, indicating a hawkish stance, with attention on Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] Group 2 - Copper prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a decline in copper processing rates and increased imports amid a seasonal demand lull [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply and sluggish domestic consumption, despite recent high price levels [1] - Zinc production exceeded 600,000 tons in July, with continued recovery in August, although there are pressures from increased social inventory [1] Group 3 - Nickel prices are experiencing volatility due to increased domestic inventory and weak demand, with a surplus in primary nickel globally [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with potential support for the non-ferrous sector from anticipated Fed rate cuts in September [1] - Operational strategies suggest short-term trading with a focus on selling high and managing risks [1]

8月21日，公司以每股23.28-23.7港元回购331.8万股,回购金额7840万港元。 8月22日，中国宏桥(01378)盘中上涨2.07%，截至14:14，报24.6元/股，成交8.41亿元。 中国宏桥集团有限公司是一家涵盖热电、采矿、氧化铝、液态铝合金、铝合金锭、铝合金铸轧产品、铝 母线、高精铝板带箔、新材料的全产业链产铝特大型企业。截至2023年，其总资产达到2003.2亿元，是 全球领先的铝产品制造商之一。 截至2025年中报，中国宏桥营业总收入810.39亿元、净利润123.61亿元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of indices a listed company is included in, along with the market recognition of these indices, serves as an important reference for evaluating the investment value of the company [1] Group 1: Market Context - Since August, the bullish atmosphere in the Chinese capital market has intensified, with major A and H-share indices reaching new highs, indicating a potential acceleration in index performance [1] - High-quality stocks that are included in multiple indices and index-linked funds are particularly noteworthy, as they are likely to attract more buying interest from external investors during a bull market [1] Group 2: Company Profile - China Hongqiao - China Hongqiao (01378) is highlighted as a representative company with significant potential, having been included in a total of 216 indices, with 16 of these indices linked to fund products, amounting to a total fund size of approximately 42.6 billion yuan [1] - The average market value of China Hongqiao shares held by each index fund is about 946 million yuan [1] Group 3: Investment Value Recognition - China Hongqiao has a substantial weight in several actively managed index funds, reflecting its recognized investment value among professional investors [2] - In the CSI Hong Kong 100 Equal Weight Index, China Hongqiao accounts for approximately 1.41% of the fund, making it the second-largest holding by market value [2] - The company has been newly included in 24 indices this year, with the latest inclusion being in the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Resource Series Index on August 11 [2] Group 4: Dividend and Share Buyback Strategy - China Hongqiao has been enhancing its shareholder return mechanism by increasing its dividend payout ratio and implementing share buybacks, with dividends projected to rise from 0.51 HKD per share in 2022 to 1.61 HKD in 2024 [3] - The company has spent 2.61 billion HKD to repurchase approximately 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, with plans to initiate a new buyback program of at least 3 billion HKD [3] Group 5: Financial Performance - The latest financial report shows that China Hongqiao's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reached 81.039 billion yuan and 12.361 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.1% and 35% [3][4] - The company is also expanding its production capacity through strategic acquisitions and international projects, which are expected to enhance its competitive advantage and profitability [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - With the increasing number of indices including China Hongqiao, the number of index funds holding the company is expected to grow, enhancing its attractiveness to external investors [4] - Given its strong growth potential and high dividend characteristics, the company's stock price is anticipated to maintain robust support, with expectations for continued upward momentum in a bullish market environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The number of indices a listed company is included in, along with the market recognition of these indices, serves as an important reference for evaluating the investment value of the company. A higher number of inclusions in well-recognized indices typically indicates greater investment value for the company [1]. Group 1: Index Inclusion and Market Performance - Since August, the bullish atmosphere in the Chinese capital market has intensified, with major A and H-share indices reaching new highs, indicating a potential acceleration in index performance [1]. - Companies that are included in multiple indices and index-linked funds are particularly noteworthy, as they are likely to attract more buying interest from investors, especially during a bull market [1]. - China Hongqiao (01378) is highlighted as a representative company with significant potential, having been included in a total of 216 indices, with 16 of these having linked fund products [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Statistics and Weighting - Among the 216 indices, there are 45 linked fund products, with a total estimated scale of approximately 42.6 billion yuan, and an average market value of about 946 million yuan held in China Hongqiao shares per fund [2]. - China Hongqiao has a significant weight in several actively managed index funds, reflecting its recognized investment value among professional investors. For instance, it accounts for approximately 1.41% of the China Securities Hong Kong 100 Equal Weight Index, making it the second-largest holding in that fund [2]. Group 3: Recent Index Additions and Dividend Focus - In 2023, China Hongqiao has been newly included in 24 indices, with the latest being the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Resource Series Index on August 11 [3]. - Many of the indices that have included China Hongqiao focus on "dividend" and "high dividend yield" themes, indicating a strong emphasis on shareholder returns [3]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Growth Strategy - China Hongqiao's recent mid-year financial report shows robust growth, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 81.039 billion yuan and 12.361 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.1% and 35% [5]. - The company is enhancing its growth strategy through acquisitions and international projects, such as the 90 billion yuan investment in acquiring a 25% stake in Yunnan Hongtai, which will increase its electrolytic aluminum capacity [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the increasing number of indices including China Hongqiao, the number of index funds, both active and passive, holding the company is expected to rise [6]. - Given the company's strong growth potential and high dividend characteristics, along with the bullish market conditions, China Hongqiao is likely to attract significant buying interest from external investors, potentially leading to sustained upward momentum in its stock price [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started shutting down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January. Individual mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity moves down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, aluminum prices fluctuated. The market is paying attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday to find clues about a possible interest - rate cut next month. New trade tariffs and inflation risks make some policymakers cautious about easing policies [1] - In terms of fundamentals, aluminum production is increasing slightly. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, under the influence of the off - season, terminal and processed material consumption is hard to exceed expectations. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [2] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - sectors, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly [2] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost aluminum foil and aluminum profile demand [2] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. It is expected to move within a range in the near term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact may still put pressure on the upside [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a positive outlook on aluminum prices, leading to a maintained "buy" rating and an increased target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29 [1] - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue rose to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, and net attributable profit grew by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1] Group 2 - The financial health of China Hongqiao is improving, with a significant increase in interest coverage ratio to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates, alongside plans to continuously reduce debt levels [1] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - Based on the expected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for the fiscal year 2025 and a 63% potential dividend payout ratio, the implied dividend yield is projected to be 7%, which is attractive for investors [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, DBS Bank anticipates that strong aluminum prices will continue, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - The management of China Hongqiao expects the average selling price of electrolytic aluminum to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and the average selling price of alumina to be between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a sustained strong outlook for aluminum prices [2] - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing a supply growth of 1.8% [2]

Group 1 - The Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for being "too weak" in dealing with the U.S. and China, claiming that Canada should adopt a "strong stance" [1][3] - Poilievre accused Trudeau of failing to protect Canadian interests, highlighting that despite concessions made to the U.S., such as the cancellation of the digital services tax, Canada still faced increased tariffs [1][3] - The Canadian government stated that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods remains one of the lowest among its trade partners, despite significant impacts from tariffs on specific sectors like lumber, steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1][4] Group 2 - China has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian products, including a 100% tariff on canola oil and oilseed meal, and a 25% tariff on Canadian seafood and pork [3][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch, citing a significant increase in imports at prices below domestic sales, which has harmed local industries [4] - The Canadian government is discussing support measures for farmers affected by the trade tensions, as China is a major market for Canadian canola, accounting for over 50% of its exports [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, raising the 12-month target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29, supported by an optimistic aluminum price outlook [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue increased to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, while net attributable profit rose by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1][2] Financial Health - China Hongqiao's financial condition is improving, with interest coverage ratio significantly rising to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates [2] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024, leading to an implied dividend yield of 7% based on the projected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for fiscal year 2025 [2] Market Outlook - DBS Bank anticipates strong aluminum prices to continue through 2026-2027, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - Management projects the average selling price for electrolytic aluminum in 2025 to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and for alumina between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a robust price outlook [2] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 1.8% [2] Competitive Position - Under China's "anti-involution" guidelines, supply control is expected to strengthen, benefiting leading companies like China Hongqiao from rising average prices and market consolidation [3] - China Hongqiao aims to complete the transfer of approximately 2.2 million tons of capacity to Yunnan by the end of fiscal year 2025, representing 34% of total capacity, enhancing its production cost advantages through an integrated supply chain and increased use of green power [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]