格隆汇10月9日｜由于美联储会议纪要显示参与者愿意在今年再次降低利率，这可能为非生息资产带来 潜在提振，铜价上涨。继周三收低后，伦敦金属交易所铜期货上涨多达0.8%。美联储9月份会议纪要显 示，多数官员认为进一步放松政策是合适的，但许多人强调了通胀风险。投资者目前预计美联储可能在 10月和12月降息。受包括全球第二大铜生产商印尼Grasberg矿在内的一系列矿山停产导致供应受限，铜 价目前正逼近历史最高点。据印尼国家新闻社Antara援引当地官员消息，自由港-麦克莫兰公司的该矿 运营可能要到2026年年中才能恢复。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of rising international gold prices on the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to a surge in mining ETFs and stock prices of key companies [1] - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the mining ETF (159690) surged by 7%, marking a six-day winning streak, with several component stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The price of Comex gold reached a historical high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and increased central bank gold purchases [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests that the weakening dollar and the ongoing competition in economic development will support strong resource prices, particularly in copper, which has recently exceeded $10,500 per ton [1] - The report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance in copper is exacerbated by production halts at major mines due to accidents, further driving up prices [1] - Additionally, the analysis from Founder Securities points to a favorable environment for continuous interest rate cuts in the U.S., which could support a long-term bullish trend for gold and silver [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating", and the short - term prices of various varieties are expected to be mainly in an oscillating state [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - During the long holiday, the spot market of the black building materials industry remained stable. Industry demand was restricted by poor domestic demand and frequent overseas tariffs, but the furnace material side continued to support the prices of sector varieties. In this pattern, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will mainly oscillate. Attention should be paid to domestic meetings and overseas interest rate cuts to boost market sentiment again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - During the long holiday, steel and billet prices remained stable. Iron ore swaps and spot prices rose slightly by 0.3 - 1.3%. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, while coking coal, alloy, glass, and soda ash prices remained stable. The demand performance in early October was still lackluster, and frequent overseas tariff disturbances limited the upside potential of post - holiday prices. High hot metal production supported the demand and prices of furnace materials, thus stabilizing steel costs [1]. 3.2 Specific Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - During the holiday, the inventory of steel accumulated too quickly, and the current pressure still existed. The spot market transactions were generally weak, and the prices were basically stable. The output of the five major steel products remained at a relatively high level during the holiday, but the demand shrank significantly, and the inventory accumulation was obvious. Overseas tariff policies were constantly disturbing, but the short - term impact was expected to be limited. Although the current steel inventory was at a moderately high level and the short - term disk was under pressure, there were still expectations for anti - involution policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan, the macro - environment was still warm, and the cost side had certain support, so the downside space of the disk was limited [7]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, and the overseas market rose slightly. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the port arrivals increased. The demand for iron ore was supported by high hot metal production, and some steel mills had restocking plans after the holiday. The inventory pressure was not prominent. However, the general performance of the building materials peak - season demand limited the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8][9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - During the holiday, the supply and demand of scrap steel were stable, and the spot price fell slightly. After the steel enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the spot price decreased. The current pressure on finished product prices led to a contraction in electric furnace profits. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - During the holiday, the coke price increase was implemented, and the supply and demand decreased slightly. The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, but the high raw coal price still restricted the overall start - up. The demand was supported by high hot metal production. The upstream inventory was still at a low level. It is expected that the post - holiday price will remain oscillating [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - During the holiday, some coking coal mines were on holiday, and the market operated stably. After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and Mongolian coal imports will also reach a high level. The overall supply is expected to increase, but the increase will be restricted. The demand for coking coal will remain high in the short term. Overall, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. 3.2.6 Glass - During the holiday, the glass production and sales were weak, and manufacturers tried to raise prices to boost sentiment. A large amount of inventory was accumulated during the National Day. If the post - holiday price increase fails to stimulate restocking sentiment, the fundamental logic may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12][13]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - During the holiday, soda ash was expected to accumulate inventory, and the fundamental supply - demand situation changed little. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - During the holiday, the manganese silicon market remained stable, and the pessimistic supply - demand situation suppressed the price. In the short - term, high production costs and peak - season demand expectations supported the price, but the market supply - demand expectation was pessimistic, and there was still downward pressure on the price center after the peak season [2][16]. 3.2.9 Silicon Iron - During the holiday, the silicon iron market operated stably, and the loose supply - demand situation pressured the price. In the short - term, peak - season expectations and firm costs supported the price, but the market supply - demand relationship was becoming looser, and there was still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2][17]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides basis seasonal charts for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon iron, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash, as well as profit seasonal charts and steel daily trading volume data. In addition, it shows the performance of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index and the steel industry chain index [19][20][61][81].

Group 1 - Hong Kong high-speed rail infrastructure stocks surged significantly, with China Railway rising over 10%, China Metallurgical increasing by 7%, and other companies like Times Electric and China CNR rising over 4% [1] - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to supply shortages and the logic of a computing power revolution, prompting CITIC Securities to suggest focusing on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper [1] - China Metallurgical's copper-gold project in Pakistan has a design production scale of 12,800 tons of ore per day and an annual smelting capacity of 20,000 tons, producing crude copper [1] Group 2 - The Aynak copper mine project in Afghanistan has a resource volume of 662 million tons, with a copper metal content of 11.08 million tons and an average copper grade of 1.67%, classified as a world-class super-large copper deposit [1] - China Railway currently has five modern mines built through wholly-owned, controlling, or joint ventures both domestically and internationally, with stable production operations in its mineral resources business [1] - Longjiang Securities previously pointed out that there is a focus on the revaluation of mineral resources for China Railway [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong high-speed rail infrastructure stocks surged, with China Railway leading with a rise of over 10%, followed by China Metallurgical with a 7% increase, and other companies like Times Electric and CRRC rising over 4% [1] - The recent increase in copper prices is attributed to supply shortages and the logic of a computing power revolution, prompting CITIC Construction Investment to suggest focusing on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper [1] - China Metallurgical's copper-gold project in Pakistan has a design capacity of 12,800 tons of ore processed daily and an annual smelting capacity of 20,000 tons, producing crude copper [1] Group 2 - The Aynak copper mine project in Afghanistan has a resource volume of 662 million tons, with a copper metal content of 11.08 million tons and an average copper grade of 1.67%, classified as a world-class super-large copper deposit [1] - Changjiang Securities previously noted that China Railway currently has five modern mines invested in, either wholly or partially, both domestically and internationally; the company's mineral resource business operates steadily, and there is a focus on the revaluation of its mineral resources [1] - The stock performance of key companies includes: China Railway (4.190, +8.27%), China Metallurgical (3.090, +6.92%), Times Electric (45.440, +4.36%), CRRC (6.250, +4.17%), and China Railway Construction (5.570, +3.53%) [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1][5] - The US stock market saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach new intraday and closing highs, with the Nasdaq rising 1.1% to 23,043 points [2] - The market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 82.799 billion, while the net inflow of funds through the Stock Connect was 484 million [1][5] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, local real estate, software, and 5G concept sectors faced the largest declines, while gold stocks performed well [1][5] - The AI and consumer sectors showed weak performance, whereas gold and nuclear power stocks rose against the trend [1][5] - In the US, technology, utilities, and industrial sectors reached closing highs, with Nvidia's CEO confirming increased demand for computing [2] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the continued value of Hong Kong stocks centered on Chinese assets, recommending focus on sectors such as AI applications, semiconductors, and industrial software [3] - Companies benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong mid-term performance in upstream non-ferrous metals are also suggested for attention [3] - The report emphasizes the potential of domestic products in government procurement, which is expected to boost related hardware manufacturing and software applications [9] Notable Company Developments - Geely Automobile's stock rose by 3.36% following the announcement of a 2.3 billion Hong Kong dollar share buyback plan [1] - Longwind Pharmaceuticals saw a significant increase of 161% on its first trading day, with turnover exceeding 600 million Hong Kong dollars [1][15] - The report suggests monitoring companies like ZTE Corporation and Kingsoft Software, which are expected to benefit from domestic product standards in government procurement [9]

（文华综合） 沪铜和国际铜节后高开，目前主力合约涨幅都在2%附近。智利8月铜产量同比减近一成，环比也有明显 下滑，主要受Codelco旗下矿山事故影响，叠加前期印尼Grasberg矿遭逾不可抗力，市场对于铜矿端脆弱 性担忧继续笼罩。宏观方面，美国非农推迟发布，ADP就业人口表现疲弱，继续推升市场对美联储年内 继续降息两次的预期，铜价和贵金属涨势联动。整体来看，矿端担忧持续叠加宏观氛围偏暖，铜价仍然 偏强运行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Railway (00390) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 6% in early trading, attributed to recent major project wins totaling approximately 502.15 billion RMB, which represents 4.34% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 under Chinese accounting standards [1][1][1] Group 1 - China Railway's stock price rose by 5.94%, reaching 4.1 HKD, with a trading volume of 132 million HKD [1][1] - The company recently won bids for 11 major projects, with a total bid amount of 502.15 billion RMB [1][1] - The bid amount constitutes about 4.34% of the company's expected revenue for 2024 [1][1] Group 2 - According to Changjiang Securities, China Railway currently has investments in five modernized mines, either wholly-owned, controlled, or partially owned [1][1] - The company's mineral resources business is operating steadily, indicating potential for resource revaluation [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Group Limited (601390) saw its stock price increase by over 6% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following the announcement of winning significant contracts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company recently announced it has won 11 major engineering contracts, with a total bid amount of 50.215 billion RMB, which represents approximately 4.34% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 under Chinese accounting standards [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Longjiang Securities highlighted that China Railway currently has five modernized mines that are fully owned, controlled, or partially owned, indicating a strong presence in the mining sector [1] - The company's mineral resources business is operating steadily, suggesting a robust operational performance in this segment [1] - There is an ongoing focus on the revaluation of the company's mineral resources, which may present further investment opportunities [1]

消息面上，龙资源发布公告，已获得近期在芬兰南部Jokisivu金矿(Jokisivu)进行的金刚石取芯钻孔活动 的结果。其包括在Arpola飞鼠区170米至225米水平(Arpola-3)的19个地下金刚石取芯钻孔活动中最初18 个钻孔活动以及7个用于评估Jokisivu主体结构向东南延展程度的地面金刚石取芯钻孔活动(Jokisivu勘探) 的结果。 该等活动已发现数个优质样段，为公司提供关于Jokisivu矿床东南部分金矿化的性质与特征的资料。 据介绍，Jokisivu的露天采矿于2009年开展，地下开采则始于2011年。截至2025年6月30日，Jokisivu的 井下掘进已延伸至645米深，已通过露天开采及井下作业开采出约3.5百万吨品位为2.5克╱吨黄金的矿 石。 Jokisivu的地下金刚石取芯钻孔作业持续进行，目前正推进15个钻孔的钻探计划，目标为于175米至190 米水平的Basin Zones区域。该计划的钻探阶段预计将于未来数周内完成，相关结果可望于12月初公布。 Basin Zones区域钻探完成后，钻机将转移至Arpola区域，进行目标为340米至380米水平的Arpola主矿区 的19 ...