光模块市场需求交流会议纪要 202506 会议要点 1. 800G 光模块市场需求情况 2024 - 2026 年整体需求规模：2024 年 800G 光模块整体需求约 800 万只，其 中英伟达约 300 多万，谷歌约 200 多万，其他云厂商每家小几十万不等。2025 年需求在 1800 - 2100 万只之间，英伟达需求约 500 多万只，谷歌约 350 万只， meta 约 250 - 300 万只，AWS 约 300 万只，oracle 约 100 万只，XAI 约 100 万只，微软直采部分约 50 - 80 万只。2026 年基于实际情况，行业需求预期在 3000 - 3200 万只左右，meta 需求预计翻倍至 600 万只，oracle 预计在 350 - 400 万只，XAI 至少 250 万只，微软直采约 250 万只，谷歌在 400 - 500 万只 之间，英伟达在 350 - 400 万只，一些小的算力、挖矿公司整体打包约 300 万 只，AWS 约 550 万只。 市场预期差异原因：市场有预期 2026 年 800G 光模块需求接近 4000 万只，与 保守预期差异的原因主要在于微 ...

证券分析师：杨海晏 A0230518070003 李国盛 A0230521080003 袁航 A0230521100002 李天奇 A0230522080001 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 林起贤 A0230519060002 刘洋 A0230513050006 研究支持： 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 联系人： 刘洋 A0230513050006 2025.6.9 结论 从科技树节点，看新型硬件 2025H2 新型硬件展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 串联2022H2、 2024年底、2025H2 科技创新的进展与前景，投资者可以感受到进展； • 前述"硬件-软件"创新轴，会指引投资方向。中短期需要讨论的机会：GPU+HPM、光器件、硅光、激光雷达、车载芯片、RoboVan、AI眼镜； 中长期需要讨论的机会与创新更重要。 ◼ 2B市场：光器件+硅光+GPU+高端化；2C市场：车载+RoboVan+可穿戴+生物电子互动设备 • 其中光器件机会来自MoE架构下的机会，它区别于"Scaling Law"下简单的算力升级，而是MoE架构"高带宽低时延"下光器件 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **optical communication** industry and its developments, particularly driven by advancements in AI and new technologies from companies like **Broadcom** and **Credo** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Broadcom's TH6 Network Chip**: The release of the TH6 network chip, which supports 102T switching, significantly enhances AI data center network performance and accelerates the development of 200G/224G SerDes technology, acting as a catalyst for the AI optical communication sector [1][5]. - **Credo's Financial Performance**: Credo reported a 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and nearly 180% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and plans to increase capital expenditures, reflecting optimism about AI's future [1][7]. - **Xena's Revenue Trends**: Xena's revenue grew by over 20% year-over-year, although gross margins declined due to rising costs. Despite this, overall revenue trends indicate benefits from industry growth [1][8]. - **Fiber Optic Cable Demand**: The demand for fiber optic jumpers is robust, with companies like **Hengtai Light** and others benefiting from the rollout of 800G/1.6T technologies [1][6]. - **Emerging Technologies**: New CPU technologies and silicon photonics are expected to improve the gross margins and profitability of optical modules, with demand for 1.6T and 800G modules anticipated to rise through 2026 [1][11][12]. Notable Companies and Their Prospects - **Hengtai Light**: Recognized as a core wiring solution provider, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed optical communication solutions [1][6]. - **Taiwanese Server Manufacturers**: Companies like **Weichuang** are seeing significant revenue growth in AI servers, reflecting the overall industry's positive outlook [1][10]. - **Ciena and Akasia**: These companies are noted for their unique positions in the global long-distance data center and network transmission markets, expected to continue benefiting from industry developments [1][10]. - **New Yi Sheng and Tianfu Communication**: These companies are highlighted for their potential growth due to increasing demand from major internet firms [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **ByteDance's Spring Conference**: The upcoming ByteDance conference is expected to positively impact the communication sector, particularly for companies closely collaborating with ByteDance, such as **Guanghe Tong** [1][14]. - **IDC Sector Outlook**: The IDC sector is projected to have a positive outlook in the second half of 2025, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to yield results [1][15][16]. - **NVIDIA's New Product Launch**: NVIDIA's upcoming product releases are anticipated to enhance computing infrastructure and AI application demand, presenting investment opportunities [1][17]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call, focusing on the optical communication industry and its key players.

截止到今年四月底，中国光模块上市公司先后有8家公司发布2024年业绩报告，包括中际旭创、剑桥科技、新易盛、光迅科技、剑桥科技、天孚通信、天 辰光、联特科技。 | | | 八家光模块上市公司业绩统计表 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 验收 | 自席は长 | 净利润 | | 中际旭创 | 238.62亿 | 122.64% | 51.71亿 | | 剑桥科技 | 36.52亿 | 18.31% | 1.67亿 | | 新易盛 | 86.47亿 | 179.15% | 28.38亿 | | 光迅科技 | 82.72亿 | 36.49% | 6.61亿 | | 天孚通信 | 32.52亿 | 0. 67.74% | 13.44Z | | 太辰光 | 13.78亿 | 55.73% | 2.61亿 | | 联特科技 | 8.91亿 | 47.11% | 9295.26万 | | 华工科技 | 117.09亿 | 13.57% | 12.21亿 | 2024年营收超过百亿的光通信公司有2家，中际旭创位居榜首，营收达到238.62亿元；华工科技位列第二，2024年营收达到117.0 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 通信 博通和 Ciena 财报说明了什么？ 【博通：网络的重要性】 事件：博通发布 FY25 Q2 季报（截至 2025 年 4 月），实现营收 150 亿 美元，同比增长 20%，公司合并毛利率为 79%，业绩增长主要得益于 AI 业务的增长和 VMware 的并表整合。从产品结构来看，半导体解决 方案营收 84 亿美元，同比增长 17%截其中 AI 业务 44 亿美元，同比 增长 46%）；基础设施软件营收 66 亿美元，同比增长 25%。公司指引 FY25 Q3 营收 158 亿美元，其中 AI 业务 51 亿美元。 我们认为，在 AI 大模型驱动的算力经济中，网络不再是配角，而是 AI 系 统性能释放的前提，建议重视 AI 发展中网络的重要性： 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 截1）网络：AI 算力体系的"新瓶颈" 大模型集群要求系统内部具备极致的低延迟、高带宽和可扩展性，系统瓶 颈由此重构，过去的瓶颈在"单芯片算力"，现在及未来的瓶颈在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Oriental Communication, has authorized its management to sell part of its shares in Bochuang Technology within 12 months, following board approval, through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The board of directors approved the plan to sell trading financial assets during a meeting on June 6, 2025, allowing management to execute the sale within a year [1]. - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring and does not require shareholder meeting approval [1]. Group 2: Transaction Target Information - Bochuang Technology, established on July 8, 2003, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on October 12, 2016, specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of integrated optoelectronic devices in the optical communication field [2]. - Oriental Communication currently holds 6,915,961 shares of Bochuang Technology, which are free from any pledges, disputes, or legal issues [2]. Group 3: Sale Plan and Purpose - The sale will be executed based on the company's operational needs, with the selling price not to be lower than the initial public offering price of Bochuang Technology, adjusted for any corporate actions [2]. - The company acknowledges the uncertainty of returns due to market price fluctuations and commits to timely information disclosure regarding the sale's progress [2].

当前时点如何看光模块反弹行情 20250605 摘要 英伟达季报显示 Blackwell 产品占一季度收入 70%，部署速度达每周 1,000 架机架，预计二季度部署量超 6,000-10,000 架。GB300 可能 在二季度末出货，从 GB200 切换到 GB300 无太多障碍，采用有限创新 以保证稳健交付，核心变化包括 HBM 配置提升和标配 CX8 网卡。 Mellanox 网络业务超预期，MV link 销售额约 10 亿，ID 和以太坊贡献 10 亿环比增长。收入主要来自交换机、光模块、网卡及 Armlink 协议 授权，这些领域在第一季度有复苏迹象，利好英伟达供应链，如天孚通 信直接受益。 主权国家对 AI 投资超预期，沙特大单已促成，英伟达将在欧洲推动更多 主权 AI 大单。谷歌 IO 大会提到推理需求显著增加，每月 TOKEN 消耗 量达 480 万亿，同比增长 50 倍，支撑推理需求。 博通 Tomahawk 6 提前发布，加速行业迭代。Tomahawk 系列产品从 发布到批量出货通常需一到两年，预计 Tomahawk 6 将在 2026 年下 半年或 2027 年上半年开始规模交付，推动 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Shijia Photonics Company Overview - **Company**: Shijia Photonics - **Industry**: Optical Communication Key Points and Arguments Production and Capacity Expansion - The Thai factory of Shijia Photonics is expanding production in an orderly manner, with capacity gradually being released in Q2. Domestic expansion is also ongoing to meet increasing market demand [2][4] - The company has strategically stocked materials to mitigate supply shortages, including fiber optics and connectors, ensuring optimistic growth in overall performance for Q1 and Q2 [3] Demand and Market Trends - Significant growth in demand for optical modules is expected next year, particularly for FR2 and FR4 products, with a stable and optimistic supply situation for AWG components [2][8] - The data center construction is driving an increase in high-margin multi-core optical cable orders, with good performance in Q1 and growth in both gross profit and revenue [2][14] Financial Performance - The company reported a loss in Q1 but expects to narrow losses or achieve breakeven in Q2, contingent on successfully transitioning to three-inch indium phosphide substrates and price increases for 2.5G DFB products [2][11] - The traditional 2.5G DFB market is expected to remain flat compared to last year due to capacity constraints, with a gradual shift to three-inch wafers anticipated to improve capacity over time [10] Strategic Developments - The company has made breakthroughs with strategic large customers, particularly overseas component suppliers, with increasing demand for MPO products [2][5] - Continuous recruitment and training of personnel are being conducted to support MPO business development, with production lines operating in shifts to maximize output [2][27] Future Outlook - Over the next three years, the market demand for 800G optical modules is projected to grow significantly, with AWG product penetration expected to increase [2][26] - The company is optimistic about the future, particularly in the CW business, with incentive programs in place to enhance yield and gross margins [9] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in the traditional access network business, where profitability remains difficult if it continues to focus on 2.5G products. A shift towards 10G or 25G products is seen as a more favorable direction [11] - The impact of tariffs on various business segments is minimal, as the company has the ability to switch production origins to benefit from exemption policies [6][7] Additional Insights - The AWG component's gross margin is expected to improve as production scales up, with lower equipment amortization costs contributing to higher profitability [18] - The company is cautious about expanding production capacity blindly and will evaluate the situation based on order demand [22][25] Conclusion - Shijia Photonics is positioned for growth in the optical communication sector, with strategic expansions, a focus on high-demand products, and a commitment to improving financial performance through operational efficiencies and market adaptations [2][28]

Summary of Cambridge Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cambridge Technology - **Industry**: Optical Modules and AI Technology Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - Cambridge Technology expects to ship over **1.2 million optical modules** in 2025, with **800G modules** accounting for half of the total shipments [2] - The demand for **800G optical modules** is driven by the rapid growth of the global AI industry, particularly from North American CSPs like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft [2][6] - The **800G market** is anticipated to grow significantly, potentially outpacing the growth of NVIDIA's GPU market, presenting opportunities for Cambridge Technology [2][6] Business Strategy and Partnerships - Cambridge Technology has a deep partnership with **Cisco**, utilizing a **Joint Development Model (JDM)** for optical modules, which enhances collaboration in product design and development [7][8] - The company plans to use **50% of its IPO proceeds** for capacity expansion and **20% for R&D** [12] - The current monthly production capacity is approximately **200,000 optical modules**, with a target of **3 million modules** for the next year [2][11] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately **3.6 billion to 3.7 billion yuan**, with optical module business contributing around **500 million yuan** [3] - The expected revenue from optical modules is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026, with a potential total revenue of **7 billion yuan** in 2026 [23][52] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, despite anticipated long-term price declines for optical modules [19][20] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capabilities, with plans to reach a monthly capacity of **200,000 modules by the end of this year** and **300,000 modules next year** [11][17][50] - The production of **800G optical modules** primarily utilizes silicon photonics technology, with prices around **$400 to $500 per unit** [18][45] Customer Base and Demand Forecast - Major customers include **Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle, and Tesla**, with significant demand expected from these clients [9][42] - The demand for **800G modules** is projected to increase sharply, with Cisco's forecast indicating that **50% of its 800G demand** will be supplied by Cambridge Technology [42] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its future growth, driven by the increasing demand for optical modules from major cloud service providers and the expansion of its product offerings [53] - Cambridge Technology is preparing for its IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to become a leading player in the AI computing communication sector [48] Additional Insights - The company has a strong focus on R&D, particularly in new technologies like **25G PON, 50G PON, and WiFi 7**, to maintain competitiveness [4][32] - Cambridge Technology is actively engaging with new clients and exploring collaborative opportunities beyond traditional supply relationships [29][41] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market opportunities, and financial outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong institutional interest in certain stocks, particularly focusing on New Yi Sheng, which has shown significant net buying and positive growth projections from analysts [1] Group 1: Institutional Investment - Among the 30 stocks favored by institutions, four stocks including Runze Technology, New Yi Sheng, Chifeng Gold, and Tianfu Communication have seen substantial net buying, each exceeding 30 million yuan [1] - New Yi Sheng has been consistently favored by institutions for two consecutive years, with a net buying amount of 999.53 million yuan in 2024 and 1.56 billion yuan since 2025 [1] Group 2: Growth Projections - Analysts predict a remarkable net profit growth rate of 114.28% for New Yi Sheng in 2025, supported by its advancements in various optical module projects [1] - Zhongyuan Securities notes that New Yi Sheng's breakthroughs in silicon optical modules and related technologies are benefiting from the high demand for optical modules driven by global AI infrastructure development [1] Group 3: Market Performance - New Yi Sheng's stock has performed well in the secondary market, achieving a three-year consecutive annual increase, with a year-to-date rise of 17.85% [1]