本周是五一长假前的最后一个交易周，上市公司年报和一季报也将披露完毕，泓德基金表示，市场未来 三个月将进入业绩的真空期，外部环境的变化可能的对国内资本市场产生一定程度的扰动，但我们相 信，按照政治局会议的部署，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧 变化的不确定性，中国经济这艘巨轮可以行稳致远。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 整体来看，泓德基金分析，当前政策仍处于以"筹备"和"积蓄弹性"为主的阶段，结构性调控和局部支持 依然是主旋律，这使得市场将更多将目光聚焦于中美谈判进展以及潜在的降关税交易预期上。 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率普遍上行。信用债收益率也多数上行。MLF超额续 作短暂提振但未能扭转观望情绪，超长端波动收窄显示市场分歧仍在，市场仍在等待央行降准降息。 上周国内权益市场延续小幅反弹走势，日均成交量相较上上周变化不大，维持在1.1万亿元附近，万得 全A周涨幅为1.15%。具体来看，国内主要股指中，小型股股指涨幅较大，中证1000（+1.8%）和中证 2000（ ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide signals for equity allocation based on macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity indicators[26] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses dynamic macro event factors to construct a stock-bond rotation strategy. The signal strength for economic growth and monetary liquidity is calculated monthly. For April, the signal strength for economic growth is 0%, and for monetary liquidity is 50%[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown a return of 1.06% from the beginning of 2025 to the present, compared to a 1.90% return for the Wind All A index during the same period[26] 2. Model Name: Micro Cap Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model focuses on timing and rotation signals for micro-cap stocks based on volatility and interest rate indicators[30] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses two mid-term risk warning indicators: 1) Ten-year government bond yield YoY indicator and 2) Volatility congestion YoY indicator. On October 15, 2024, the volatility congestion indicator fell below the threshold, lifting the risk warning signal. The interest rate YoY indicator was -20.45%, not triggering the risk control threshold of 0.3[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has not triggered risk control, suggesting investors continue holding micro-cap stocks[30] Model Backtest Results 1. Macro Timing Strategy - **Economic Growth Signal Strength**: 0%[27] - **Monetary Liquidity Signal Strength**: 50%[27] - **Equity Allocation Recommendation**: 25%[27] - **Return from 2025 to Present**: 1.06%[26] 2. Micro Cap Timing Model - **Ten-year Government Bond Yield YoY**: -28.69%[31] - **Volatility Congestion YoY**: -50.09%[31] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to capture the value characteristics of stocks based on fundamental metrics[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: The value factor includes metrics such as the latest annual report book value to market value (BP_LR), future 12-month consensus expected net profit to market value (EP_FTTM), and past 12-month operating income to market value (SP_TTM)[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The value factor performed best in the CSI 300 stock pool last week[37] 2. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to capture the size characteristics of stocks based on market capitalization[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: The size factor includes metrics such as the logarithm of circulating market capitalization (LN_MktCap)[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor showed strong positive returns in the CSI 1000 stock pool last week[37] Factor Backtest Results 1. Value Factor - **IC Mean (CSI 300)**: 25.88%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 500)**: 10.56%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 1000)**: 6.32%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 300)**: 10.84%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 500)**: 10.56%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 1000)**: 6.32%[38] 2. Size Factor - **IC Mean (CSI 300)**: 3.33%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 500)**: -3.23%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 1000)**: -1.84%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 300)**: 3.33%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 500)**: -3.23%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 1000)**: -1.84%[38]

- The report discusses two main quantitative models: the Diffusion Index Model and the GRU Factor Model[6][7][14][33] Diffusion Index Model 1. **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model 2. **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, capturing industry trends by observing the diffusion index of various sectors[6][27] 3. **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the diffusion index for each industry - Rank industries based on their diffusion index values - Select top industries for investment based on their diffusion index rankings - Formula: $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of advancing stocks}}{\text{Total number of stocks}} $ 4. **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[26][30] 5. **Model Test Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -3.16%[25] - April 2025 excess return: -1.08%[30] - Weekly excess return: 0.43%[30] GRU Factor Model 1. **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model 2. **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data, aiming to capture trading information and trends[7][33] 3. **Model Construction Process**: - Collect minute-level price and volume data - Train a GRU network on historical data to identify patterns - Rank industries based on GRU factor scores - Select top industries for investment based on their GRU factor rankings - Formula: $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $ 4. **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance in short cycles but may struggle in long cycles or extreme market conditions[33][36] 5. **Model Test Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -3.33%[33] - April 2025 excess return: 0.92%[36] - Weekly excess return: -0.31%[36] Factor Rankings and Performance 1. **Diffusion Index Rankings (as of April 25, 2025)**: - Top industries: Banking (0.986), Non-Banking Financials (0.948), Comprehensive Financials (0.926), Computers (0.873), Retail (0.847), Communication (0.841)[14][27] - Bottom industries: Coal (0.105), Oil & Petrochemicals (0.175), Food & Beverage (0.257), Agriculture (0.396), Steel (0.423), Utilities (0.491)[27][28] 2. **GRU Factor Rankings (as of April 25, 2025)**: - Top industries: Banking (3.81), Transportation (2.77), Non-Banking Financials (2.37), Textiles & Apparel (2.34), Media (1.98), Light Manufacturing (1.81)[7][34] - Bottom industries: Automobiles (-5.31), Agriculture (-4.05), Pharmaceuticals (-4.03), Home Appliances (-3), Coal (-2.67), Defense (-2.64)[34] Weekly and Monthly Performance 1. **Diffusion Index Weekly Performance**: - Top weekly gainers: Construction (0.189), Real Estate (0.187), Building Materials (0.136), Light Manufacturing (0.089), Textiles & Apparel (0.081), Communication (0.069)[29] - Top weekly losers: Steel (-0.111), Utilities (-0.038), Non-Ferrous Metals (-0.018), Coal (0.003), Transportation (0.007), Computers (0.009)[29] 2. **GRU Factor Weekly Performance**: - Top weekly gainers: Banking, Textiles & Apparel, Consumer Services[34] - Top weekly losers: Coal, Automobiles, Construction[34]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in the robotics and renewable energy sectors, showcasing the investment strategies of Huazhong Fund, particularly through the expertise of fund manager Xiong Zheying, who focuses on AI and advanced manufacturing opportunities [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Xiong Zheying employs a three-pronged investment framework: "grasp structure + adjust rhythm + select stocks," aiming for a more comfortable experience in growth stock investments [3]. - The investment approach emphasizes controlling drawdowns while maintaining a balanced exposure to advanced manufacturing sectors, with a focus on high-concentration individual stocks [4]. - The portfolio of Huazhong New Energy Theme A is diversified across three major sectors: electric equipment and new energy (30.22%), non-ferrous metals (28.24%), and basic chemicals (23.38%), with individual stock concentration reaching 44.44% [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The renewable energy sector is expected to enter an upward cycle, with lithium batteries, electric vehicles, and energy systems leading the global competitiveness ranking [8]. - By the end of 2024, the renewable energy industry is anticipated to experience a supply-side turning point, leading to improved capacity utilization and ROE [8][9]. - Xiong Zheying predicts that the renewable energy sector will surpass the ROE bottom by 2025, with potential volume and price increases in the lithium battery and wind power supply chains [9]. Group 3: AI and Robotics Investment - The AI industry, particularly in application development, is seen as a significant growth area, transitioning from training to inference applications, which will foster innovation [9]. - The investment in robotics is entering a second phase driven by AI, with advancements in cognitive capabilities and sensor technology expected to create new demand [9]. - The development of AI applications is likened to industrial automation, evolving from discrete needs to broader process requirements, indicating a potential explosion in demand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.773 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 46.5% to 419 million yuan [4][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 831 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [4][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve conversion of 4 shares for every 10 shares held [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue structure is optimizing, with a notable shift towards overseas markets, where revenue grew by 68.7% to 1.164 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 24.4% of total revenue [7][8]. - The gross margin improved to 22.9% in 2024, up from 19.2% in 2023, with the net margin also increasing to 8.73% [7][10]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 632 million yuan in 2025 and 1.083 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a leading position in the photovoltaic and energy storage inverter markets, ranking fourth globally in photovoltaic inverter shipments in 2023 [8]. - The company is expanding its presence in key overseas markets, including Europe, India, and the Middle East, to mitigate risks associated with domestic policy fluctuations [8][10]. - The focus for 2025 includes advancing large-scale energy storage markets and enhancing supply chain and after-sales service networks in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 6.066 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% from 2024 to 2025 [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 1.16 yuan in 2024 to 1.76 yuan in 2025, and further to 3.01 yuan by 2027 [6][10]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2024 to 9.4 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [10].

报 告 摘 要 一、公募FOF基金2025年一季度概览 截至 2025Q1 ，全市场已成立 FOF 产品数量 512 只，合计规模为 1510.79 亿 元，相比 2024Q4 增加 13.47% 。根据穿透后权益资产占比将 FOF 划分为偏 债型 FOF 、平衡型 FOF 和偏股型 FOF ， 2025Q1 规模分别为 766.59 亿 元、 326.02 亿元、 418.18 亿元， 2025 年一季度收益中位数分别为 0.44% 、 1.57% 、 2.64% 。 二、 2025年一季报中FOF配置最多的基金 为了能更好地观察 FOF 基金经理的投资偏好，本文就市场关注度较高的几类基 金分别统计了 FOF 重仓数量最多和重仓规模最大的基金。 在主动权益基金中，重仓该基金的 FOF 数量最多的三只基金是 大成高鑫 A 、富 国稳健增长 A 、华夏创新前沿 ；重仓规模最大的三只基金是 华夏创新前沿、大 成高鑫 A 、易方达信息行业精选 C 。 在债券型基金中，重仓该基金的 FOF 数量最多的三只基金是 广发纯债 A 、易方 达安悦超短债 A 、富国纯债 AB ；重仓规模最大的三只基金是 易方达安悦超短 债 ...

- The report analyzes the active equity funds' allocation in Q1 2025, highlighting that the median position of active equity funds was 89.55%, which has remained stable around 90% since 2020[1][7] - The top three sectors with the highest allocation in Q1 2025 were machinery, TMT, and Hong Kong stocks, with allocation ratios of 22.30%, 21.01%, and 19.08%, respectively[1][13] - Compared to the previous quarter, the allocation ratio for Hong Kong stocks and pharmaceuticals increased by 4.74% and 0.03%, respectively, while the allocation ratio for machinery, TMT, consumption, finance, others, real estate infrastructure, and cyclical sectors decreased[1][13] - The top five industries with the highest allocation in Q1 2025 were Hong Kong stocks, electronics, pharmaceuticals, power equipment and new energy, and food and beverages, with allocation ratios of 19.08%, 15.29%, 8.63%, 7.91%, and 7.14%, respectively[1][20] - The top five stocks with the largest holdings by active equity funds in Q1 2025 were CATL, Midea Group, Luxshare Precision, Kweichow Moutai, and BYD, with holding values of 54.49 billion yuan, 32.32 billion yuan, 30.82 billion yuan, 37.53 billion yuan, and 23.09 billion yuan, respectively[1][24] - The top five Hong Kong stocks with the largest holdings by active equity funds in Q1 2025 were Tencent Holdings, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, Pop Mart, and Meituan-W, with holding values accounting for 4.1%, 1.2%, 1.1%, 0.5%, and 0.6% of the fund's heavy stock value, respectively[1][26][28] - The report defines fund clustering degree as determined by the clustering degree of heavy stocks and their holding ratios, with the calculation method provided[1][30][32] - The report lists the top 20 funds with the highest clustering degree and the top 20 funds with the lowest clustering degree, based on specific screening criteria[1][35][39]

Group 1: Fund Size and Performance - The total net asset value of public funds reached 31.62 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.63 trillion yuan compared to the end of Q4 2024 [3][16] - Non-monetary market fund size totaled 18.29 trillion yuan, down 0.35 trillion yuan from the previous quarter, reflecting a 1.87% quarter-on-quarter decline but an 11.84% year-on-year increase [3][16] - The total number of active equity funds was 4,533, with a combined size of 3.81 trillion yuan, showing a 1.10% increase from the previous quarter but a 5.73% decrease year-on-year [5][27] Group 2: Active Equity Funds Analysis - The average holding ratio of active equity funds was 86.36% at the end of Q1 2025, a slight increase from 86.29% in the previous quarter [5][30] - The top ten heavy-weight stocks accounted for an average of 38.63% of the net asset value of active equity funds, down from 40.75% in the previous quarter [5][30] - The concentration of active equity fund management is high, with the top ten fund companies accounting for 44.3% of the total active equity fund size [5][31] Group 3: Fixed Income Plus Funds - As of the end of Q1 2025, there were 1,547 fixed income plus funds with a total size of 1.39 trillion yuan [6][53] - The majority of fixed income plus funds are classified into medium and low elasticity groups, with medium elasticity funds accounting for 49.7% of the total size [6][57] - The investment in non-ferrous metals and banking sectors increased significantly, with respective increases of 3.0% and 1.2% in heavy-weight positions [6][82] Group 4: FOF, ETF, QDII, and Quantitative Funds - The total size of FOF funds reached 1510.79 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5% [7] - The ETF market size was 36,633.88 billion yuan, up 4.15% from Q4 2024 [7] - The QDII market had 257 funds with a total size of 524.80 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [7]

报 告 摘 要 一、基金仓位监控 普通股票型基金 仓位中位数为90.62%， 偏股混合型基金 仓位中位数为89.21%，与上一季 度相比基本持平，自2020年以来持续围绕在90%仓位震荡。普通股票型基金仓位处在历史 72.13%分位点，偏股混合型基金仓位处在历史78.69%分位点。 普通股票型和偏股混合型基金 港股仓位 均值分别为12.07%和15.3%，均较上一季度明显提 升。普通股票型配置港股基金数量为233只，偏股混合型配置港股基金数量为1572只，普通 股票型以及偏股混合型基金中配置港股的基金数量占比为57.85%。 二、基金持股集中度监控 基金重仓股占权益配置比重为53.21%，上一期为52.61%，有所提升；另一方面，基金持股 数量在2025年一季度相较于上一季度略有增加，基金经理总体持股数量为2331只，这意味 着，基金经理持仓的股票差异化有所提升。 三、板块配置监控 2025年一季报中披露的主板配置权重为55.08%、创业板配置权重为13.52%、科创板配置权 重为12.27%，港股配置权重为19.12%。 在2025年一季度内， 科技板块配置减仓较多 ，减少了1.73%，而 消费和医药板块配 ...

2025年一季报中披露的主板配置权重为55.08%、创业板配置权重为13.52%、科创板配置权 重为12.27%，港股配置权重为19.12%。 报 告 摘 要 一、基金仓位监控 普通股票型基金 仓位中位数为90.62%， 偏股混合型基金 仓位中位数为89.21%，与上一季 度相比基本持平，自2020年以来持续围绕在90%仓位震荡。普通股票型基金仓位处在历史 72.13%分位点，偏股混合型基金仓位处在历史78.69%分位点。 普通股票型和偏股混合型基金 港股仓位 均值分别为12.07%和15.3%，均较上一季度明显提 升。普通股票型配置港股基金数量为233只，偏股混合型配置港股基金数量为1572只，普通 股票型以及偏股混合型基金中配置港股的基金数量占比为57.85%。 二、基金持股集中度监控 基金重仓股占权益配置比重为53.21%，上一期为52.61%，有所提升；另一方面，基金持股 数量在2025年一季度相较于上一季度略有增加，基金经理总体持股数量为2331只，这意味 着，基金经理持仓的股票差异化有所提升。 三、板块配置监控 绝对市值配置最高 的三只股票为腾讯控股、宁德时代、贵州茅台，其配置绝对市值分别为 68 ...