此次抛售潮的直接导火索，是美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一届美联储主席。市场普遍将沃什 解读为鹰派人选，其提名打破了此前市场对美联储激进降息的乐观预期，引发市场对货币政策转向的担 忧。分析人士指出，沃什被视为能"重新锚定美联储公信力"的人选，其提名缓解了市场对美联储独立性 丧失的担忧，直接挑战了"货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的主流叙事，成为贵金属多头集中平仓的核心触发 器，推动美元指数反弹至96.52的月内高位，进一步压制以美元计价的贵金属价格。 一纸美联储主席提名，引爆全球贵金属市场史诗级抛售潮。北京时间1月30日夜间至31日凌晨，伦敦现 货白银盘中一度暴跌36%，最低触及74.28美元/盎司，创2020年以来最大单日波动幅度；伦敦现货黄金 同步重挫，盘中跌破5000美元/盎司关键关口，最大跌幅超12%，最低下探至4682美元/盎司，回吐近期 全部涨幅。国内市场同步承压，黄金T+D单日跌幅近10%，沪银主连暴跌17%，A股贵金属板块超20只 个股跌停，这场由单一事件触发的连锁抛售，背后是多重利空因素的共振叠加。 影响后续走势的关键变量持续演化。美联储主席提名的参议院批准进程、沃什后续政策表态，将直接定 调货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the silver market and the impact of U.S. economic policies, particularly the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which has led to significant volatility in precious metals prices. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $80.26 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 23,420 yuan per kilogram and the Shanghai silver main contract at 24,832 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 30, the dollar index rose by 1.02% to close at 97.136, while silver closed at $84.63 per ounce, down 26.93% [1] - The SLV silver ETF held 15,523.36 tons as of January 30, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Economic Policies and Predictions - Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, indicating that he believes it is inappropriate for the White House to pressure for interest rate cuts, although Warsh is expected to receive support from Democrats and may advocate for rate cuts [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement more than two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The silver market opened at 71.182 at the beginning of January, reached a historical high of 121.794, and then experienced a strong pullback, closing at 84.619 [6] - The market is expected to have a demand for a pullback in February, with potential targets set at 86 and 80, and further levels at 78.7, 76, and 75 if broken [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for silver deferred contracts due to significant price volatility [1] - Starting February 2, 2026, if a one-sided market occurs for the Ag (T+D) contract, the margin level will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price fluctuation limit will change from 19% to 25% [1] - If no one-sided market occurs, the margin level and price fluctuation limits for the Ag (T+D) contract will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - The exchange urged its members to enhance risk awareness and prepare detailed risk response plans to ensure market stability [1] - Investors are advised to manage their positions rationally and invest wisely to maintain a healthy market operation [1]

1月的金价暴跌并非单一因素造成，而是多重因素的共同作用。投资者的情绪变动和政策预期的变化，以及高盛报告中提到的期权市场的投机行为，都加剧 了金价的剧烈波动。黄金市场的暴涨背后隐含着投机泡沫，而市场情绪一旦逆转，便会迅速带来价格的下跌。 尽管短期内金价出现了大幅回调，但分析师普遍认为，这一波暴跌并不意味着黄金牛市的终结。瑞银等机构仍对黄金保持乐观预期，认为美联储降息和全球 经济压力可能推动金价在2026年继续上涨。地缘政治风险、美国债务增加等因素依然可能推动黄金需求，给金价提供支撑。 不过，市场的变化也给黄金投资带来了不小的风险。黄金的价格不仅受到基本面影响，还容易受到市场情绪和政策预期的波动。若央行暂停购买黄金，或者 美元因鹰派政策走强，金价可能面临更大的回调。2026年，黄金价格可能会面临进一步的下行压力，分析师的年末预测价位在4000美元至5000美元之间，最 极端情况下甚至可能跌至3500美元。 2026年1月，黄金和其他贵金属市场经历了剧烈波动。黄金价格一度从历史新高5596美元/盎司暴跌至4686美元/盎司，跌幅接近10%。尽管整体上涨超过 12%，但价格的快速下跌仍然让市场措手不及。 白银的波动尤 ...

A jeweller shows gold and silver bars at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on Jan. 12, 2026.Gold and silver extended their sell-off Monday, deepening losses from last Friday's rout as a firmer dollar and profit-taking drains momentum from a rally that had propelled the precious metals to record highs just days earlier.Spot gold lost around 5% to $4,616.79 per ounce, having crashed nearly 10% on Friday, when prices plunged below $5,000 an ounce. Silver, which had surged alongside gold on safe haven demand and ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has decided to adjust the margin level and price fluctuation limits for silver forward contracts due to significant price volatility [1] - The margin level for the Ag(T+D) contract will increase from 20% to 26% if a one-sided market occurs on February 2, 2026 [1] - The price fluctuation limit will be adjusted from 19% to 25% starting the next trading day if a one-sided market is observed [1] Group 2 - If no one-sided market occurs, the margin level and price fluctuation limits for the Ag(T+D) contract will remain unchanged [1]

截至08:14，现货白银、黄金反弹。现货白银转涨，现货黄金跌幅收窄至1%。 截至08:21，现货白银持续反弹，涨超2%。 2月2日，现货白银走低，跌近8%，现货黄金跌超3%。截至07:25，现货黄金一度失守4700美元关口，跌 超4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with a historic drop in silver and gold prices, largely influenced by market reactions to potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the role of Chinese investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Silver prices plummeted by 26% in less than 20 hours, marking the largest single-day decline in history, while gold fell by 9%, the worst performance in over a decade [1]. - The surge in the U.S. dollar, driven by news of Trump's potential nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed chair, is seen as a direct trigger for the market downturn [1]. - Traders are now focusing on the performance of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange to gauge China's demand for precious metals following the sell-off [1]. Group 2: Trading Environment - The market has been described as "wild" and "untradeable," with significant volatility expected to characterize January 2026 as one of the most tumultuous months in precious metals history [2]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by profit-taking from Chinese retail investors and private equity funds, who had previously driven prices up due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of diminished Fed independence [2]. Group 3: Market Fundamentals - Prior to the crash, signs of overheating were evident, with the price surge driven more by speculative capital from China rather than traditional industrial demand [3]. - Data indicates that while global prices soared, there was a net outflow from silver ETFs outside of China since December, suggesting a disconnect between price movements and fundamental demand [3]. - Analysts have noted that the recent price increases were more reflective of momentum trading rather than fundamental value, leading to expectations of a market correction [3]. Group 4: Physical Market Dynamics - Despite turmoil in the futures market, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market for physical precious metals has remained relatively stable, with no panic selling observed [4][5]. - There has been a slight easing in the tight supply of silver, with more selling than buying, but traditional demand for physical gold remains strong as consumers prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [5]. Group 5: Regulatory Responses - In response to market volatility, Chinese financial institutions are tightening risk controls, with measures such as increasing minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation and limiting transaction volumes during holidays [6]. - These actions aim to guide investors towards more rational participation and prevent excessive speculation in the precious metals market [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The key question remains whether traditional physical demand ahead of the Spring Festival can offset the impact of retreating speculative funds [7]. - The market is at a crossroads, determining whether this unprecedented volatility will subside or if it will lead to a reorganization after adjustments [8].

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年2月2日，现货黄金周一低开80美元，现报4808美元/盎司；现货白银低开4.5%，现报80.7美元/盎 司。上周五，贵金属经历史诗级暴跌行情。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：赵思远 2026年2月2日，现货黄金周一低开80美元，现报4808美元/盎司；现货白银低开4.5%，现报80.7美元/盎 司。上周五，贵金属经历史诗级暴跌行情。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in precious metals, particularly gold, has raised concerns in the market, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years, leading to a significant impact on trading behavior and market sentiment [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reaction - As of January 31, gold prices fell to $4,865.35 per ounce, a decrease of 9.45%, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years [1]. - Silver also saw a significant decline, dropping 26.77% to $84.7 per ounce, the largest single-day drop since early 1980 [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices fell approximately 18% and 15%, respectively, reflecting a broader trend of declining precious metal prices [1]. Group 2: Trading Behavior - Many traders in the Shenzhen market are choosing to hold onto their inventory rather than sell, citing the sharp price drop and an inability to secure favorable prices from suppliers [2][3]. - A seller in the market noted that the price of gold bars has decreased by over 50 yuan per gram since January 29, indicating a significant market shift [2]. - Some traders are experiencing difficulties in sourcing gold bars, leading to a "first come, first served" situation for buyers [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are expressing confusion and frustration over the rapid price fluctuations, with some reporting significant losses after being caught in the volatility [7][8]. - Discussions in trading groups reveal a mix of strategies, with some investors considering "bottom fishing" for gold while others are contemplating exiting their positions [7][8]. - The volatility has led to increased risk perception among traders, with many opting to refrain from trading until market conditions stabilize [4][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility may lead to a period of adjustment lasting 3 to 6 months, as the market recalibrates after the sharp price movements [11]. - Despite the short-term fluctuations, there is a consensus that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [13]. - The market is expected to transition from a phase of rapid price increases to a period of wider fluctuations and consolidation [13].