近日，秘鲁总统博鲁阿尔特宣布，该国日前发生矿工集体遇害事件的帕塔斯地区从即日起实施宵禁，以 应对当地日益猖獗的犯罪活动。根据宵禁令，帕塔斯地区的所有采矿活动暂停30天。 作为全球第三大铜生产国，秘鲁2024年铜产量为273.6万吨，约占全球总产量的10%。光大期货有色金 属研究总监展大鹏告诉期货日报记者，此次事件发生地帕塔斯地区并未直接涉及大型铜矿，但秘鲁政府 宣布暂停该地区采矿活动30天，可能加剧市场对秘鲁铜矿供应稳定性的担忧。铜精矿资源紧张叠加再生 铜供应不足，供应端忧虑再起使铜价下方支撑较强。 "不过，该地区以生产金银为主，铜等其他金属相对较少。贵金属价格主要受投资逻辑拉动，该地区生 产暂停对贵金属价格影响相对有限。"中泰期货有色金属分析师彭定桂补充说。 值得注意的是，一季度国内铜消费表现超预期，表观消费实现了8%的增长。李瑶瑶分析，从4月国内精 铜产量及去库幅度来推算，预计4月表观消费进一步超预期增长。废铜供应偏紧，提振了精铜消费。不 过，5月之后国内铜消费将季节性回落，需求端对铜价的提振力度减弱，铜价或面临高位回落压力。 展望后市，展大鹏认为，在宏观和基本面共振下，铜暂时看不到大幅看空的理由，这可能 ...

1. 关税-①据悉印度提议对一定数量的美国汽车零部件和钢铁实行对等零关税 ②知情人士：美国拒绝了 日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求 ③白宫称尚未就电影关税做出最终决定 ④特朗普：将在未 来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 14. 中东-①伊朗外长：如果目的是防止核武器，与美国的协议是可以达成的 ②以色列对也门进行空袭 ③以色列总理：新的加沙行动将会是一次密集的军事行动。将对加沙的人口进行迁移 ④伊朗否认指使 胡塞武装袭击以色列。 1. 国家加大投入支持长远性数据基础设施建设。 2. "五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%。 3. 央行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会。 4. 港元汇率再触强方兑换保证，香港金管局4日共注资1166.14亿港元。 2. OpenAI放弃转型为营利性公司。 3. 克宫：普京接受莫迪的访印邀请。 4. 刚果（金）政府与反政府武装开启新一轮对话。 5. 苹果准备分四部分发行公司美元债，规模未公布。 6. 美国提供1000美元津贴鼓励移民自愿离境 比强制驱逐"划算"。 7. 德国基民盟、基社盟和社民党签署联合协议，候任总理默茨誓言"改革德国"。 ...

美国关税传来最新消息。 刚刚，据日本共同社报道，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等关税"全面豁免。另据彭博社报道，在与美国的贸易谈判 中，印度提议在对等的基础上，对一定数量的钢铁、汽车零部件和药品实行零关税。 与此同时，美国宏观数据也持续扰动市场。今晚，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国4月ISM 服务业PMI指数录得51.6，重回扩张区间，大幅高于预期的50.2。分析称，数据表明，在美国制造业受关税影 响持续收缩的背景下，服务业仍表现稳健。 受此影响，美股三大指数跌幅收窄，道指率先转涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.14%，纳指跌幅收窄至0.45%。美国 财政部长贝森特在最新的讲话中表示，美国股市具有"抗脆弱性"，美国将巩固"全球资本中心"的地位。 关税的变数 北京时间5日晚间，日本共同社援引知情人士的话报道，在最近的关税谈判中，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等 关税"全面豁免。 消息人士透露，上周华盛顿会晤期间，美国财政部长贝森特等美国官员告知日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正，特朗 普政府只愿意考虑降低14%的特定关税，该关税已暂停实施至今年7月初。但日本一直主张彻底取消"对等关 税"，包括对汽车加征25%的关税以及对钢铁和铝加 ...

Group 1 - The overall industrial economy in the province is showing a rapid recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - In March, the output value of key emerging industries grew by 10.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - Industrial fixed asset investment growth reached 14.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average, with manufacturing investment growth at 17.5%, exceeding the national level by 8.4 percentage points [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment growth was notably high at 57.9%, ranking fifth in the country, while manufacturing technological transformation investment growth reached 61.9% [1] - The mining industry added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average, while the manufacturing industry growth was 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industry growth was 5.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Among the top ten industries, the equipment industry led with an 18.9% growth rate, 8 percentage points higher than the national average, while the energy industry grew by 5.9% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a significant increase in added value growth of 10.1%, while the food industry grew by 5.2%, the petrochemical industry by 2.2%, the metallurgy industry by 5.4%, and the building materials industry by a remarkable 31.5% [2] - The provincial government aims to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [2]

Group 1 - Ghana announced a ban on foreign access to its gold market in April 2025, highlighting a severe water crisis despite its vast gold resources [1][3] - The country, which produces 130 tons of gold annually, faces a paradox of wealth and poverty, with a GDP per capita of only $2,500 and 40% of children suffering from chronic diarrhea due to contaminated water [3][8] - Illegal mining has led to a significant drop in groundwater levels, exacerbating the water crisis in a country with an annual rainfall of 2,000 mm [5][6] Group 2 - Chinese engineering teams have successfully drilled 1,000 wells in 832 villages, providing daily water supply of 200,000 cubic meters, benefiting approximately 500,000 people [6][8] - Chinese investments in infrastructure, such as the construction of a power plant supplying 15% of Ghana's electricity, have created 36,000 jobs and improved water access [8][9] - Ghana's external debt stands at $55 billion, accounting for 80% of its GDP, with a 60% currency depreciation and a 50% inflation rate in 2025 [8][9] Group 3 - Illegal mining has destroyed 4,726 hectares of land, leading to severe mercury pollution in local rivers, with projections indicating Ghana may need to import freshwater by 2030 [9][11] - In response to environmental challenges, Chinese companies are initiating green projects, including a 200 MW solar power plant expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 240,000 tons annually [11][13] - The Ghanaian government is shifting towards a "gold for technology" model, focusing on local capacity building and technology transfer, with over 400 local engineers trained [11][14] Group 4 - The mining sector is dominated by oligarchs who control 70% of gold revenues, complicating efforts to combat illegal mining and corruption [13][14] - The historical context of colonial exploitation continues to impact Ghana's economic structure, with a need for systemic change to ensure equitable resource distribution [3][14]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangmen's GDP reached 91.723 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [2][6] - Jiangmen's GDP growth rate is lower than the provincial average of 4.1% [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 5.238 billion yuan, growing by 0.1% [2] - The secondary industry added value was 37.980 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.7% [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 48.505 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.3% [2] Trade Performance - Jiangmen's total import and export volume in the first quarter was 47.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.1% [4] - The export volume was 40.44 billion yuan, increasing by 13.2% [4] County-Level GDP - Xinhui led the city with a GDP of 22.834 billion yuan, while Heshan showed the highest growth rate at 4% [5][7] - Other counties ranked by GDP include Pengjiang (21.361 billion yuan), Taishan (11.815 billion yuan), and Kaiping (10.978 billion yuan) [5][7] Industrial Growth - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 13.891 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.9% [8] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 3.4%, with manufacturing increasing by 4.7% [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 21.7% year-on-year [9] - The decline in investment was observed across all sectors, with the primary industry down by 36% and the secondary industry down by 26.1% [9] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 30.796 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% [10] - Urban retail sales grew by 1.7%, while rural retail sales increased by 2.1% [10]

2025年1—3月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.8% 1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同比增长0.8%（按可比口径计算）。 1—3月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额5599.5亿元，同比下降1.4%；股份制企业实 现利润总额11101.5亿元，增长0.1%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额3883.5亿元，增长2.8%；私营企业 实现利润总额3709.7亿元，下降0.3%。 1—3月份，采矿业实现利润总额2204.4亿元，同比下降25.5%；制造业实现利润总额10826.4亿元，增长 7.6%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额2062.8亿元，增长5.4%。 1—3月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长40.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增 长33.6%，专用设备制造业增长14.2%，通用设备制造业增长9.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长7.5%，纺织业 增长7.1%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长6.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长3.2%，化学原料和 化学制品制造业下降0.4%，石油和天然气开采业下降3.1%， 汽车制造业 ...

印尼此前提高了对镍、煤炭、铜、黄金及其他矿物生产所征收的税率，这一举措影响到了包括淡水河谷 和自由港麦克莫兰铜金公司（Freeport-McMoRan）在内的一些全球最大的矿业集团。镍的税率将从统 一的10%提高到14%至19%，具体税率取决于镍金属的价格。印度尼西亚是世界上最大的镍生产国，而 镍是不锈钢和电动汽车电池的关键成分。（英国金融时报） ...

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 本篇报告中，我们对2025年二季度印度尼西亚经济进行展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 宏观经济：在全球不利因素背景下应对内部结构性挑战 2025年一季度，印尼经济面临挑战。根据彭博一致预期，印尼全国GDP增速预计放缓至4.9%，内部结构性挑战大于外部不利因素。展望2025年二季度， 我们认为印尼有望通过采取更多措施应对对于资源过度依赖以及重建外国投资者信心：1）在印尼盾贬值和货币宽松之间寻求更加均衡的货币政策；2）战 略性开放市场，在保证核心技术留存的同时允许外国投资者加大对重点行业的持股；3）重振国内消费。 推出新的主权财富基金Danantara[1]以及新的资源出口外汇收益留存政策 对外贸易：印尼对美贸易敞口有限，对等关税风险可控 印尼出口市场较为多元化，对美出口敞口较小。2024年，对美出口在印尼整体出口中所占比重仅为10%，在此印尼不同于东盟内受到供应链回流以及"友 岸外包"影响的其他国家。此外我们认为对外贸易对于印尼经济增速的平均贡献较低（仅为0.3%，而2009年至2024年期间印尼实际GDP平均增速为4.8%） 可以使得印尼受关税影响较小。 采矿业面临的挑战：矿区 ...

Economic Overview - In 2021, China's GDP reached 114.4 trillion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 17.7 trillion USD, accounting for over 18% of the global economy, solidifying its position as the second-largest economy in the world [1] - The historical context highlights that during the Song Dynasty, China accounted for 60% of the world's GDP, and even during the Qing Dynasty, it held 35% before being surpassed by Western countries due to the Industrial Revolution [1] Historical Context - The establishment of a unified state in China began with the Qin Dynasty, followed by the Han Dynasty, which defined the Chinese nation. Population growth was significant during stable periods, with the Han population increasing from 18 million to 60 million in about 200 years [3] - The Ming Dynasty saw a population increase from under 60 million to over 200 million by the early 17th century, while the Qing Dynasty's population grew from 120 million to over 430 million by the 19th century due to stable agricultural conditions [3] European Context - In contrast, Europe was fragmented into numerous feudal states post-1453, leading to frequent wars and a smaller population due to the instability of the "Dark Ages" [5] - The rise of the Ottoman Empire disrupted trade routes, increasing costs for Western nations, which relied heavily on trade with China for resources [5] Industrial Revolution - The search for new trade routes led to the Age of Exploration, with European nations seeking maritime paths to Asia, culminating in the discovery of the Americas by Columbus in 1492 [7] - The need for labor to process the vast resources from colonies prompted European countries to innovate and develop machinery, marking the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [7][10] - By the late 18th century, the introduction of the spinning jenny and the steam engine revolutionized production, leading to the mechanization of the textile industry in Britain [10][12] - The transition from hand production to machine-based manufacturing in the cotton industry was largely completed by 1830, establishing Britain as the first industrialized nation [14] Conclusion - The Industrial Revolution represented a significant leap in productivity and wealth creation, enabling Britain to become a dominant global power, often referred to as the "empire on which the sun never sets" [14] - The conditions that led to the Industrial Revolution were unique to Britain, as other nations lacked the necessary preconditions to replicate this transformation [14]