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时报观察丨利率下行存款搬家 认知升级重塑理财观
证券时报· 2026-01-28 23:53
近期,在存款利率下行、大量高息定存到期的背景下,居民存款搬家入市再度成为市场的关注焦 点。 一场寻求"存款替代"的浪潮正悄然兴起,这些昔日安稳"躺"在银行账户中的储蓄资金,既不满足 于存款的微薄利息,又对纯权益类产品的高波动心存顾虑,转而希望寻求一种既能获取稳健基础 收益又能分享资本市场成长红利的"中间路线"产品。 在此背景下,以"固收+"基金为代表的低波含权产品,以及部分分红型增额终身险产品逐渐走 红,成为这股资金浪潮的"新大陆"。最新披露的公募基金2025年四季报显示,截至2025年末,名 义"固收+"基金(含一级债基、二级债基、偏债混合基金、转债基金)在管规模突破2.735万亿 元,创历史新高。分红型增额终身险等产品的热销,以及银保渠道的业绩贡献,也间接反映出居 民资金配置偏好的变化,其中兼具保本、保证收益与浮动收益属性的分红险更受市场青睐。 居民储蓄从银行体系向资本市场的有序搬家,一方面反映了居民财富管理意识的觉醒和资产配置 能力的日趋成熟;另一方面,这些风险偏好相对较低的长期资金入市,也有助于改善资本市场资 金来源结构,为市场平稳健康发展注入宝贵的"活水"。 当然,相比银行存款,相关替代产品并非稳赚 ...
单季度重大赔付金额超千万元,渔业互助保险社如何应对“水上风险”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2026-01-28 13:24
相关较大金额的赔付事项对互助保险社产生哪些影响?针对渔业相关风险,保险保障机制是如何转移的? 单季赔付"风暴"袭来 渔业,看似传统,实际上与煤矿、危险化学品等行业一样属于高危行业。一旦发生安全事故,会造成重大损失。 即将成立满两年的全国性相互保险组织中国渔业互助保险社披露了2025年的最新业绩。1月28日,北京商报记者通过该公司第四季度偿付能力报告了解到, 该公司全年累计实现保险业务收入3.47亿元,净利润0.07亿元。透过四季度业绩数据来看,2025年第四季度该组织出现净亏损578.31万元。需要关注的是, 从重大赔付事项来看,2025年第四季度该组织再保后赔付金额(含未决估损)前五位的事项,合计赔付金额超1500万元。 需聚焦专业化、创新与成本控制 中国渔业互助保险社成立于2023年2月15日,是一家全国性相互保险组织,注册地在北京。据了解,该组织的主要发起会员为中国渔业互保协会和7家省 (市)渔业互保协会,初始运营资金为5亿元。 彼时获批筹建之际,在业内人士看来,渔业领域迎来专属相互保险组织,这不仅将补齐行业短板,也有望拓展渔业保险产品种类和范围,为渔民带来更多物 美价廉的保险保障。 进一步而言,这家组 ...
高管变动叠加股东拟退场,诚泰保险迎双重变局
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2026-01-28 13:04
一起人事变动将总部位于云南的诚泰财产保险股份有限公司(以下简称"诚泰保险")推至聚光灯下。1月28日,北京商报记者了解到,近日的一纸公告宣告 了公司党委书记的悄然更迭。需要关注的是,诚泰保险董事长一职仍空缺,这一位置自上任董事长离职后已空置超过一年。 与此同时,该公司国资背景股东拟再次挂牌转让股权的消息,亦在产权交易市场引发涟漪。那么,国有股东"去意已决"的背后,诚泰保险业绩成色如何?能 否支撑其穿越行业深度调整的周期? 要职落定,董事长仍缺位 诚泰保险高层人事日前落定。1月28日,北京商报记者获悉,诚泰保险近日发布公告称,自2025年12月19日起,王锐任公司党委委员、书记。 "70后"王锐曾任富滇银行风险管理总部副总经理,信用审批委员会办公室副主任,审批委员会办公室主任,零售银行管理部总经理,昆明中山支行党支部书 记、行长,交通金融创新中心主任,云南省康旅控股集团有限公司投资管理中心总经理,云南水务投资股份有限公司党委书记。2022年9月至今,任诚泰保 险董事。 若此次云南冶金转让股权成功,这意味着其将完全退出诚泰保险股东名单。 目前,上述股权拟转让项目点击量为380次,对于该项目是否已有意向方,该项目负 ...
深圳:在风险可控前提下,合理提高消费贷款额度、延长贷款期限
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-28 11:21
钛媒体App 1月28日消息,深圳市市场监督管理局等五部门印发《深圳市优化消费环境三年行动计划 (2026—2028年)》。其中提出,加强财政金融支持。运用服务消费与养老再贷款,从供给端加强服务 消费和养老产业的融资对接。充分运用融资担保、风险补偿等增信措施,提升服务消费领域企业融资便 利度和可获得性。在风险可控前提下,合理提高消费贷款额度、延长贷款期限。建立消费信贷监测机 制,加强消费信贷用途和流向监管。支持保险机构优化产品和服务,在依法合规、风险可控的前提下探 索开发无理由退换货服务的保险产品。强化资金绩效管理和评价,精准发挥财政促消费作用。(深圳市 监局网站) ...
深圳:在风险可控前提下合理提高消费贷款额度、延长贷款期限
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-28 11:03
深圳市市场监督管理局等五部门印发《深圳市优化消费环境三年行动计划(2026—2028年)》。其中提 出,加强财政金融支持。运用服务消费与养老再贷款,从供给端加强服务消费和养老产业的融资对接。 充分运用融资担保、风险补偿等增信措施,提升服务消费领域企业融资便利度和可获得性。在风险可控 前提下,合理提高消费贷款额度、延长贷款期限。建立消费信贷监测机制,加强消费信贷用途和流向监 管。支持保险机构优化产品和服务,在依法合规、风险可控的前提下探索开发无理由退换货服务的保险 产品。强化资金绩效管理和评价,精准发挥财政促消费作用。 ...
再探超长债供需
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 last year, there have been strong concerns about the supply of ultra - long bonds in the market. In January this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long government bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with the increment mainly from new special bonds, indicating a decent demand for capital for major project construction at the beginning of the year. The central bank's relatively active liquidity injection and banks' increased purchases at the ultra - long end have alleviated market concerns to some extent [3]. - From the perspective of achieving the annual economic target, the annual fiscal increment may exceed market expectations, and fiscal policies may be supplemented in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long government bonds will be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan, with certain supply pressure in February and March [3]. - Insurance is likely to have a good start, with an expected annual premium growth of 6.6% and the growth rate of the balance of funds utilization remaining at around 15%. It is estimated that in 2026, the proportion of ultra - long bonds allocated by insurance in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will remain basically flat at about 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2025 [3]. - It is estimated that the investment scale of commercial banks in ultra - long bonds in 2026 will be about 4.82 trillion yuan, accounting for about 67.7% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, a year - on - year increase of 0.66 trillion yuan [3]. - For trading institutions, based on a neutral judgment of the interest rate trend, the investment scale of funds and securities firms in ultra - long bonds may be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, totaling about 10 billion yuan [3]. - The 30 - 10 - year term spread in 2025 mainly widened due to the contraction of trading desks' demand for ultra - long bonds and frictions in the trading process, rather than being mainly determined by primary supply [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How is the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year calculated according to the upper limit? - It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, including 7.143 trillion yuan for treasury bonds and 7.938 trillion yuan for local bonds. In terms of issuance, the issuance of general treasury bonds will be 14.1377 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds 2 trillion yuan, new general bonds 80 billion yuan, new special bonds 550 billion yuan, special refinancing bonds 200 billion yuan, and ordinary refinancing bonds 325.8 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of ultra - long government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 225 billion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long local bonds will be 5.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 475 billion yuan [8]. - For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds in Q1 is usually low because special treasury bonds need to be approved by the Two Sessions and are expected to start issuing at the end of April. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 is about 2.38 trillion yuan, with a relatively high refinancing ratio, and the issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be in the front, making room for new bonds for construction projects later. The issuance progress of new special bonds is expected to be faster than last year [9][10]. 3.2 How is the demand for ultra - long bonds? 3.2.1 Insurance - In 2025, the premium income of insurance companies from January to November was 5.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. Property insurance increased by 2.48% year - on - year, with auto insurance as the main source of income, accounting for over 52% and highly correlated with the growth rate of vehicle ownership. Personal insurance increased by 9.2% year - on - year, with life insurance accounting for about 77% and growing by 11.47%, mainly driven by the popularity of savings - type insurance products [12][13]. - In 2026, the probability of a "good start" for premium income is high. Favorable factors include high - interest fixed - deposit maturities, the correlation between the stock market's good start in January and premium income growth, and a low base in 2025. Unfavorable factors include pressure on traditional life insurance and the over - consumption of demand due to previous "panic - buying" promotions. It is expected that the annual premium income will achieve stable growth, with property insurance growing by about 2% and personal insurance by about 8%, and the overall insurance premium income increasing by about 6.6% [14][15]. - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds utilization was 37.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. In 2026, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the balance of insurance funds utilization will decline slightly to 15%. The proportion of bank deposits is expected to drop to 7%, the proportion of stock investment to rise to 11.5%, the proportion of fund investment to rise to 6%, the proportion of long - term equity investment to be stable at 8%, and the proportion of other investments to drop to 16%. The proportion of bonds will remain stable at 51.5%, with a net increment of about 3.1 trillion yuan [20][21]. - From 2022 - 2025, the net purchases of ultra - long bonds by insurance institutions in the secondary market were 0.48, 0.73, 1.71, and 2.28 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 13.62%, 20.7%, 31.3%, and 35.5% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, and 48%, 41%, 67%, and 72% of the annual bond investment respectively. In 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ultra - long bonds in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop from 35.5% in 2025 to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will drop slightly from 72% in 2025 to 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan [25][26]. 3.2.2 Banks - In 2025, the proportion of banks' bond allocation increased significantly. The government bond custody volume of commercial banks was 63.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.17% of the outstanding government bonds. The incremental custody of government bonds by commercial banks in 2025 was 10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of the net financing of government bonds in 2025 [29]. - It is estimated that in 2026, the passive allocation scale of commercial banks for government bonds will be 10.56 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond purchases will be 17.56 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long bonds that commercial banks need to undertake may be 4.48 trillion yuan. It is also expected that the excess allocation scale of commercial banks for ultra - long bonds in 2026 will increase slightly to 0.34 trillion yuan compared with last year. Overall, the scale of commercial banks' allocation of ultra - long bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 4.82 trillion yuan [30][32]. - After the implementation of the redemption new rules at the beginning of this year, part of the banks' entrusted - out investment has been transferred back to self - operated allocation. The probability of using this part of the funds to increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds is not high due to certain indicator pressures [33]. 3.2.3 Trading Institutions - In 2025, securities firms mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds, reduced their allocation of local bonds, and shortened the duration of government bonds. The investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds decreased by 1.493 billion yuan. In 2026, it is expected that the investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds will be basically the same as in 2025 [40][41]. - At the end of 2025, non - monetary funds held 12.51 trillion yuan in bond investments. In 2025, funds only net - bought 5.82 billion yuan of ultra - long interest - rate bonds. In 2026, due to the implementation of the fund sales new rules and concerns about the cancellation of tax exemption, the liability side of bond - type funds is unstable. It is expected that the investment scale of funds in ultra - long bonds will be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, about 10 billion yuan [41][42]. 3.3 Does the 30 - 10 - year term spread depend on primary supply? - The widening of the 30y - 10y treasury bond spread in 2025 mainly occurred in the second half of the year, mainly due to the significant improvement in the stock market sentiment, the fund sales new rules, and the interest - rate adjustment, which led to the selling of ultra - long bonds by trading - like desks. If primary supply were the decisive factor, the spread should have widened in Q2 2025 [45]. - The widening of the 30y - 10y local bond spread also shows that primary supply is not the main influencing factor, as the power of allocation desks is sufficient to hedge the selling pressure [45]. - For the secondary interest - rate trend, the willingness of trading desks to increase holdings and short - term frictions seem to be more crucial [48].
权威声音:港股IPO募资额登顶!基金净流入500亿美元!香港金融业交出硬核成绩单
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-28 05:41
在香港亚洲金融论坛中,香港财库局副局长陈浩濂对新浪财经表示,2025年,香港股票市场、银行业、 保险业及资产管理等主要板块交出理想答卷,彰显着香港资本市场的韧性与吸引力。 银行业方面,陈浩濂表示,香港银行业客户存款总额按年增长约一成。 市场数据显示,2025年香港银行体系流动性充裕,受资本市场交投活跃及资金持续净流入带动,香港银 行存款规模显著扩容。其中,外币存款增长尤为突出,同比增幅约15%,人民币存款规模较年初增长超 7%。 保险业表现同样优秀,陈浩濂介绍,香港保险业毛保费按年增长超30%。 股票市场方面,港股市场活跃度大幅攀升,日均成交同比增长约九成。 数据显示,2025年,香港现货市场日均成交额达2498亿港元,按年增长89.5%。全年IPO集资额高达 2858亿港元,时隔四年再度突破2000亿港元大关,按年增超2倍,超越美国纽约证券交易所,募资额居 全球首位。 股票市场方面,港股市场活跃度大幅攀升,日均成交同比增长约九成。 数据显示,2025年,香港现货市场日均成交额达2498亿港元,按年增长89.5%。全年IPO集资额高达 2858亿港元,时隔四年再度突破2000亿港元大关,按年增超2倍,超越美国 ...
于石漠之上 筑希望之基
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2026-01-28 04:55
崇左市天等县,地处桂西南喀斯特山区,隶属于国家连片开发的"滇桂黔"石漠化综合治理片区。受自然条件 严酷、土地资源匮乏及产业发展滞后等多重制约,这里曾是国家级贫困县。脱贫攻坚时期,全县共有贫困村59 个,贫困人口达11.39万人。长期以来,劳务输出成为农民增收的主要来源,但也随之带来了大量村庄空心化、农 村"三留守"、外出务工人员保障不足、农业产业抗风险能力薄弱等诸多问题。 进入巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同全面乡村振兴有效衔接的新阶段,如何守住不发生规模性返贫的底线,并激发 内生发展动力,成为天等县面临的核心课题。《金融时报》记者近日来到天等县实地调研发现,如今,这里正通 过创新构建多层次防返贫保障体系、深度赋能乡村教育、系统培育特色融合产业,探索出一条符合山区实际的发 展路径。 针对天等县星油藤特色产业发展,中国人寿深入调研星油藤生长特点和风险痛点,创新开发星油藤政策性保 险,为全县1040亩星油藤承保,保障金额达到415.92万元。图为星油藤。 构筑"防贫坝" 从"人找政策"变为"政策找人" 在脱贫基础尚不稳固的山区,一场大病、一次意外事故就可能使一个家庭重新陷入困境。防返贫必须建立快 速响应、精准有效的拦截机制 ...
为外贸企业“进口预付款”上保险
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2026-01-28 04:55
据了解,进口预付款保险,是指当国内进口商按进口合同约定预付款项后,依据进口合同有权并且 已经要求国外供应商退还该笔预付款时,因政治风险或商业风险原因导致其不能收回相应预付款所遭受 的直接损失,保险将对进口商的预付款损失进行赔偿。 作为江苏省重点进口企业,江苏省对外经贸股份有限公司重点聚焦金属矿产等原材料专业领域进口 业务,同时拥有从上游原材料对接再到中游仓储服务,最终到终端龙头加工工厂的产业链供应链体系, 在行业内具有良好的市场竞争力和影响力。进口预付款保单通过政策性兜底,覆盖跨境采购中的政治风 险(如战争、汇兑限制)和商业风险(如供应商破产、恶意违约)。 近年来,受国际地缘政治波动、贸易壁垒升级及供应商违约风险叠加影响,外贸企业预付款资金安 全与资源交付稳定性面临严峻挑战。在此背景下,政策性金融工具正成为稳外贸、保供应链的重要支 撑。 记者日前从中国信保江苏分公司获悉,2025年4月,中国信保江苏分公司为江苏省对外经贸股份有 限公司成功出具疫情后全省首张进口预付款保单,此次承保不仅填补了市场空白,更助力企业在复杂国 际贸易环境中增强议价能力与采购韧性,标志着政策性金融工具在稳外贸的关键作用中再升级。 中国信 ...
抚州金融监管分局同意撤销阳光人寿崇仁支公司
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-28 03:45
2026年1月22日,抚州金融监管分局发布批复称,《关于撤销阳光人寿保险股份有限公司崇仁支公司的 请示》(赣阳光人寿〔2026〕2号)材料收悉。经审核,现批复如下: 二、接此批复文件后,阳光人寿保险股份有限公司应立即停止该机构一切经营活动,于15个工作日内向 抚州金融监管分局缴回许可证,并按照有关法律法规要求办理相关手续。 一、同意撤销阳光人寿保险股份有限公司崇仁支公司。 ...