证券研究报告 2025年05月16日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 传媒 2024年及2025年第一季度传媒行业回顾 作者： 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 曹睿 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523020003 摘要 传媒行业 2025年传媒行业以景气度回升为核心趋势，一季度已见报表层面明显得到改善，估值层面传媒整体估值处在中枢水平，部分龙头公司估值仍 具优势，未来在政策改善、内容常态化供给、以及AI带来的产业变革下，我们坚定看好传媒行业25年投资机会。 游戏 2025年1-3月国内游戏市场收入同比增长18%，环比-1.2%；国内移动游戏收入同比增长20.3%，环比-2.2%；端游市场收入同比增长6.8%，环比 +3.6%；自研游戏海外收入同比增长17.9%，环比-0.6%。 影视院线 供给影响大盘复苏，行业承压。2024年影视院线板块公司实现总营收357.33亿元，yoy-14.3%；实现归母净利润-25.13亿元，yoy-348.6%。 25Q1影视院线板块公司实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market in the next six months [5][46]. Core Insights - The SW media industry index rose by 6.37% in Q1 2025, with high capital activity and a valuation (PE-TTM) that has adjusted, outperforming the average level of the past seven years [2][13]. - The fund's heavy allocation in the media industry remains low, with the gaming and advertising sectors being the focal points of market attention, maintaining an overweight position [3][4]. - The top ten heavy stocks in the media sector are dominated by gaming companies, reflecting high market interest, with notable performance from Light Media, which saw a stock price increase of 123.83% [3][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Activity and Valuation - The SW media industry index closed at 671.01 points on March 31, 2025, up from 630.85 points at the beginning of the quarter, with an average daily trading volume of 58.085 billion yuan [13]. - As of May 8, 2025, the PE-TTM for the SW media industry was 27.39 times, a 5.37% increase compared to the seven-year average [15]. 2. Fund Heavy Allocation and Concentration - The allocation ratio for the SW media industry in Q1 2025 was 1.71%, with a fund heavy allocation ratio of 1.04%, indicating a low allocation level [17][20]. - The number of heavy allocation stocks accounted for 51.15% of the total, ranking 13th among all industries, showing a slight decrease in concentration [23]. - The gaming sector occupied six of the top ten heavy stocks, with significant market attention [26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the gaming and advertising sectors, particularly those with rich game license reserves and AI application layouts [43].

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong and US Listed Global Smart Car Theme Index, reported a value of 5461.69 points, with a recent one-month increase of 8.39%, a three-month decrease of 10.04%, and a year-to-date decline of 9.83% [1] - The index comprises 50 listed companies involved in smart automotive sectors such as perception positioning, decision planning, control execution, smart cockpit, and vehicle networking, reflecting the overall performance of these companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [1] - The index is based on a starting point of 1000.0 points as of December 30, 2016 [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the index include Li Auto-W (9.52%), NVIDIA Corp (9.44%), Xpeng Motors-W (8.84%), Tesla Motors Inc (8.59%), Marvell Technology Group Ltd (6.26%), Rivian Automotive Inc. (5.6%), Lucid Group Inc (3.64%), Aurora Innovation Inc. (3.61%), Baidu Group-SW (3.27%), and Analog Devices Inc (3.19%) [2] - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market (60.44%), followed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (29.66%), Nasdaq Capital Market (5.02%), and New York Stock Exchange (4.88%) [2] - In terms of industry distribution, passenger vehicles account for 23.02%, digital media for 3.27%, optical optoelectronics for 3.05%, and automotive parts and tires for 0.32% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, and generally remain fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [3] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments, including the removal of samples that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits [3]

Core Insights - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Leisure Index (H300 Leisure) has shown a significant increase, rising by 6.37% over the past month, 1.24% over the last three months, and 3.65% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Leisure Index is currently reported at 2674.35 points [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in various sectors such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the H300 Leisure Index include Tencent Holdings (12.17%), NetEase (11.18%), Kuaishou (10.7%), Baidu Group (10.01%), Yum China (8.98%), Trip.com Group (8.54%), Meituan (8.46%), Galaxy Entertainment (5.49%), China Resources Beer (2.99%), and Bilibili (2.72%) [1] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index shows that leisure services account for 40.90%, digital media for 38.37%, cultural entertainment for 12.44%, alcohol for 6.99%, and marketing and advertising for 1.30% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Group 1: Overview of Digital Nomadism - The number of digital nomads in the U.S. has reached 18.1 million, accounting for 11% of the workforce, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% and over 147% growth since 2019 [1] - The trend of digital nomadism is becoming mainstream, although the number of traditional workers engaging in this lifestyle has decreased by 5% in 2024 due to corporate return-to-office policies [1][2] - The majority of digital nomads are from the younger generations, with Gen Z and Millennials making up 64% of this group, and the proportion of Gen Z has increased from less than 1% in 2019 to 26% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Work Satisfaction and Income - Digital nomads report high job satisfaction, with 79% expressing high satisfaction and 79% satisfied with their income, attributed to their focus on travel experiences and working in tech-related fields [2][3] - Many digital nomads utilize "geographic arbitrage" by living in low-cost areas while earning salaries from high-wage countries, enhancing their financial stability [2] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Key challenges for digital nomads include economic pressures, separation from family and friends, personal safety, time zone issues, and travel fatigue, although the proportion of those reporting these challenges has decreased since 2020 [2][3] Group 4: Future Plans and Trends - A significant 95% of digital nomads are likely to continue this lifestyle, but only 15% have been digital nomads for over five years, with 15%-17% returning to traditional lifestyles annually [2] - In terms of travel plans, 40% of digital nomads intend to spend more time traveling domestically within the U.S. next year, and 51% plan to travel only within the U.S. [2] Group 5: Professional Background and Skills - Digital nomads predominantly work in fields such as information technology, creative services, and education, with 79% considering themselves early adopters of technology and 76% using AI to enhance their work competitiveness [3] - The educational level among digital nomads is high, with 52% holding a college degree or higher [3] Group 6: Corporate Policies and Economic Impact - A significant portion of traditional workers engaging in remote work do so without clear corporate policies, leading to potential risks for companies regarding compliance and security [3] - The digital nomad trend is expected to continue growing due to ongoing interest in remote work and travel, with organizations implementing policies to attract and retain talent [3]

Core Insights - The media industry showed better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by blockbuster films and games, with a total revenue of 1,240 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [1] Gaming Sector - A-shares gaming companies achieved revenues of 248.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 21% year-on-year increase, with Century Huatong's blockbuster mobile game "Endless Winter" significantly boosting sector growth [1] - The total contract liabilities of A-shares gaming companies reached 71.9 billion yuan, up 7.5 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating stable revenue growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for A-shares gaming companies was 42.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 61% year-on-year increase, with expectations for a new game cycle to drive performance growth [1] Marketing Sector - The marketing industry faced revenue declines in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to cautious ad spending and slower economic recovery, but structural highlights remain, particularly in AI-enhanced advertising efficiency [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 rose to 15 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year increase, indicating early signs of recovery [2] - Leading advertising companies like Focus Media are expanding steadily, with decreasing operating costs, and are expected to strengthen market positions through strategic integrations [2] Film and Cinema - The film industry experienced a revenue of 141.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 41% year-on-year increase, driven by successful films like "Ne Zha" [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the film industry was 23.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a recovery from a loss of 34.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024 [3] - The strong operational leverage in cinema companies leads to profit volatility, with expectations for continued box office performance in 2025 [3] Digital Media - The digital media sector saw a slight revenue decline in 2024 and Q1 2025, with Mango TV reporting revenues of 140.8 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.8% year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Mango TV was 13.6 billion yuan in 2024, a significant 61.6% year-on-year decrease, largely due to changes in tax policies [4] - In Q1 2025, revenues were 29.0 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing content offerings to drive membership revenue [4] Publishing and Periodicals - The publishing and periodicals sector faced revenue declines of 2% and 4% in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, primarily due to regulatory impacts on educational publishing [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders showed a 34% year-on-year decline in 2024, followed by a 34% increase in Q1 2025, reflecting volatility linked to deferred tax asset/liability changes [5] - Overall, the general book publishing sector remained stable despite the challenges faced in educational publishing [5]

Group 1 - The core products of Zhaoli Pharmaceutical show stable growth, with a high dividend payout ratio maintained, achieving a revenue of 2.578 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.71% [8][9] - The company has significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency, with a notable decrease in expense ratios, including a sales expense ratio of 32.53%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company plans to implement an employee stock ownership plan by the end of 2024, with profit growth targets set at no less than 30% for 2025 [10] Group 2 - Weining Health's revenue for Q1 2025 was 345 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.24%, with a net profit of 5.29 million yuan, down 68.18% [11][12] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 120.53% year-on-year [12] - The WiNEX product is entering a phase of mass delivery, supporting internet operations and international adaptation, with a strong digital architecture capable of handling millions of transactions [14][15] Group 3 - Lais Information's revenue for 2024 was 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.94%, while Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 55.53% to 109 million yuan [17][18] - The company is optimizing its business structure, with significant growth in air traffic control and urban traffic management sectors, achieving revenue increases of 13.68% and 33.47% respectively [18][19] - The company is enhancing its research and development efforts, with a focus on refining its product offerings and improving operational efficiency [20] Group 4 - FenJung Media reported a revenue of 12.262 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, with a net profit of 5.155 billion yuan, up 6.80% [23][25] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 4.766 billion yuan, representing 92.45% of net profit [24][25] - The planned acquisition of New潮传媒 is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the outdoor advertising market [28] Group 5 - Jingwang Electronics achieved a revenue of 12.659 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, with a net profit of 1.169 billion yuan, up 24.86% [30][31] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on high-end markets and AI applications, particularly in the automotive sector [32][33] - The company is increasing its R&D investments to support technological advancements and market expansion [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The overall performance of the media sector in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations, driven by blockbuster films and games [5][11] - The publishing and periodicals sector is facing revenue declines due to regulatory impacts and tax policy changes, with expected revenue drops of 2% in 2024 and 4% in Q1 2025 [2] - The gaming sector showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 21% in Q1 2025, supported by successful new game launches [20][29] - The marketing sector is experiencing revenue declines due to cautious ad spending amid economic recovery challenges, but top companies are showing resilience [5][20] - The film industry is expected to have a strong start in 2025, with Q1 revenue growth of 41% driven by popular films [5][20] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q4 2024, the media sector achieved a total revenue of 1,393 billion, a 2% year-on-year decline; however, in Q1 2025, revenue rose to 1,240 billion, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [11][12] Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue reached 3,257.83 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, and 857.04 billion in Q1 2025, growing by 17.99% [20][29] - A-share gaming companies reported total revenues of 873.7 billion and 248.2 billion for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 8% and 21% [29][37] Marketing Sector - The marketing industry faced revenue declines in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily due to cautious spending from advertisers; however, the sector showed signs of recovery with a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1 2025 [5][20] Film Industry - The film industry saw a revenue of 141.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year, largely due to successful films like "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" [5][20] Digital Media - The digital media sector experienced slight revenue declines in both 2024 and Q1 2025, with major player Mango TV reporting a revenue of 140.8 billion in 2024, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][20] Publishing and Periodicals - The publishing sector is projected to see a revenue decline of 2% in 2024 and 4% in Q1 2025, influenced by regulatory changes in educational publishing [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The overall performance of the media sector in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations, driven by blockbuster films and games, with a revenue of CNY 1,240 billion, representing a 5% year-on-year growth [5][11] - The gaming sector showed strong performance with a revenue of CNY 248.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 21% year-on-year increase, supported by successful new game launches [20][29] - The marketing sector faced challenges due to a sluggish macroeconomic recovery, but leading companies demonstrated resilience, with a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1 2025 [5][12] - The film industry experienced a significant rebound in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching CNY 141.2 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, largely due to popular films [5][12] - The digital media sector faced revenue declines, with a 12.8% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025, impacted by changes in tax policies [5][12] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q4 2024, the media sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 1,393 billion, down 2% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of CNY 1,240 billion, up 5% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in growth [11][12] Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue reached CNY 857.04 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 17.99% year-on-year increase, driven by the rapid development of mini-program games and successful new titles [20][29] - A total of CNY 68.4 billion in net profit was recorded for A-share gaming companies in 2024, with a 14% year-on-year decrease, but a significant recovery of 61% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [37] Marketing Sector - The marketing industry saw a decline in revenue in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily due to cautious spending from advertisers amid economic uncertainties, yet leading firms maintained market share and showed signs of recovery [5][12] Film Industry - The film industry reported a revenue of CNY 141.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year, driven by successful releases like "Nezha" [5][12] Digital Media Sector - The digital media sector's revenue declined by 12.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with major player Mango TV reporting a revenue of CNY 29.0 billion [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The gross profit margin was 29.0%, with an operating profit of 1.74 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.36 billion yuan, a significant decline of 61.6%, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies affecting deferred tax assets [2][3] - Membership revenue grew rapidly, reaching 5.15 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, driven by popular shows and an upgraded membership benefits system. The total number of members reached 73.31 million by the end of 2024 [2][3] - The company's internet video business revenue was 10.18 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.3%. Advertising revenue was 3.44 billion yuan, showing slight fluctuations, while operator business revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, facing short-term pressure [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue was 14.628 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.556 billion yuan, resulting in an EPS of 1.90 yuan. The P/E ratio was 11.84 [1][10] - The forecast for 2024A includes total revenue of 14.08 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan, and an EPS of 0.73 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 30.86 [1][10] - The company expects a gradual recovery in revenue, projecting 15.376 billion yuan for 2025E and 16.458 billion yuan for 2026E, with net profits of 1.804 billion yuan and 2.073 billion yuan respectively [1][10]