基于 43个国家的比较:我国服务消费比重是 否偏低? 证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250704 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe(@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占乐 执业证书:S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《内需延续结构分化,外需保持总量 平稳》 2025-06-30 《特朗普《大美丽法案》开始闯关参 2019年人均 GDP 在 1 万美元左右、服务消费比重 53.8%,高于同等发 议院》 展水平的大部分国家。 2025-06-29 ■ 我国服务消费比重真的低吗?不低。跟人均 GDP 在 2.5 万美元以上的 国家相比,我国服务消费比重是偏低的;但跟人均 GDP 在 2.5 万美元 以下的国家相比,我国服务消费比重不低。把 43个国家服务消费比重 跟人均 GDP 结合来看,43个国家里,有 20个国家 2019年人均 GDP 在 2.5万美元以下,这些国家服务消费比重平均为 46.4%;有 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 半年报 走势评级： 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 ###—###研究员 从业资格证号：F03118012 从业资格证号： 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 投资咨询证号： 联系电话：0571-28132632 联系电话： 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 邮箱： 前高后低，伺机而动 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 7 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济整体前高后低。为应对出口带来的冲击，政策储备作用对象明确。 3000 亿（VS 2024 年 1500 亿）以旧换新补贴剑指消费，8000 亿（VS 2024 年 7000 亿）两重项目投资支撑基建，2000 亿（VS 2024 年 1500 亿）设备 更新补贴用于制造业投资。在政策前置发力下，一季度 GDP 增速高达 5.4%， 预计二季度仍将在 5%以上。 外部三大扰动：关税、OBBB 法案、美联储降息时点 大类资产走势展望 | 股 | 区间震荡 | | --- | --- | | 债 | 利率有望破新低 | | 人民币汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Aofei Entertainment announced its summer release plan for multiple films, including "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf: Dawn of the Foreign Country," attracting attention. Despite owning numerous classic IPs, the company's performance has been declining in recent years, with a significant loss in 2024 attributed to high asset impairment and weak performance in its core animation business [1][2]. Financial Performance - Aofei Entertainment's revenue peaked at 3.642 billion yuan in 2017 but has been declining since 2018, with a slight fluctuation in recent years. In 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 56.28 million yuan after three consecutive years of losses. However, in 2024, it faced a significant loss again, with revenue of 2.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.86%, and a net profit of -288 million yuan, a staggering drop of 610.72% [2][4]. - The company reported a total impairment loss of 412 million yuan in 2024, including goodwill impairment of 214.8 million yuan and long-term equity investment impairment of 124 million yuan [2][3]. Core Business Challenges - Aofei Entertainment's core toy sales business has seen a severe decline, with revenue dropping to 1.0256 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.13%, and a significant reduction compared to 1.955 billion yuan in 2017. The revenue contribution from this segment fell from 53.68% in 2017 to 37.77% in 2024 [5][6]. - The company has acknowledged the need for transformation in its toy business to cover a broader demographic and is accelerating the development of trendy toy products targeting younger consumers [6]. Growth in Baby Products - The baby products segment has become a new growth engine for Aofei Entertainment, achieving revenue of 1.212 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.03%. This segment's revenue contribution rose from 39.16% to 44.64%, surpassing the toy business [7][8]. - However, this segment's growth is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, which poses significant uncertainty due to potential changes in U.S. tariff policies. In 2024, over 40% of the company's total revenue came from U.S. sales [7][8]. Domestic Market Decline - Aofei Entertainment's domestic revenue has significantly declined, with 2024 domestic revenue at 1.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%, and a 43.9% drop compared to 2.252 billion yuan in 2017. The domestic revenue contribution fell from 61.83% in 2017 to 46.56% in 2024 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordinated efforts and policy support to achieve these goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market Construction - The basic requirements for advancing the unified national market include "five unifications and one openness," which are unified market infrastructure, unified government behavior standards, unified market supervision and law enforcement, unified resource markets, and continuous expansion of both domestic and foreign openness [1][2]. - Focus areas include addressing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - The meeting called for the integration of domestic and foreign trade, facilitating the path from export to domestic sales, and nurturing a group of high-quality enterprises in both domestic and foreign trade [2]. Group 2: High-Quality Development of Marine Economy - The meeting stressed the importance of top-level design and increased policy support to encourage social capital participation in marine economic development [3]. - Key initiatives include enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology, fostering leading marine technology enterprises, and promoting the development of modern offshore fishing and marine biomedicine [3]. - The meeting also highlighted the need for marine ecological environment protection and the exploration of marine carbon sink accounting [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong provincial government has introduced a series of policies to support the deep integration and collaborative innovation of culture and technology, aiming to enhance the development of cultural technology enterprises and promote economic growth in the cultural sector [1] Group 1: Policy Measures Overview - The policy measures consist of 5 main areas and 23 specific initiatives aimed at fostering cultural and technological integration [1] - By 2024, Shandong is expected to have 1,200 technology-based cultural enterprises with R&D expenses, representing a 9.0% year-on-year increase, and achieving a total revenue of 494.95 billion yuan, a growth of 10.9% [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - The first area focuses on supporting cultural projects led by technological innovation, including funding for cultural technology enterprises and projects related to cultural data utilization and protection [2] - The second area emphasizes strengthening market entities in cultural and technological integration, providing financial support for digital transformation and innovation platforms [2] Group 3: Talent Development - The third area is dedicated to cultivating cultural and technological integration talents, including incentives for high-level talent recruitment and support for cultural technology personnel [3] - Measures include providing healthcare and travel services for cultural technology talents and facilitating their participation in government-sponsored overseas study programs [3] Group 4: Financial Support - The fourth area aims to enhance financial support for cultural technology, including increasing local government bond issuance and optimizing financial services for cultural technology enterprises [4] - Specific initiatives include interest subsidies for small cultural technology enterprises that repay loans on time [4] Group 5: Collaborative Innovation Ecosystem - The fifth area focuses on creating an ecosystem for deep integration and collaborative innovation between culture and technology, promoting inter-departmental cooperation and resource sharing [4] - The policy emphasizes addressing existing gaps in core technology support and fostering a collaborative environment for cultural and technological development [4]

Group 1 - The Shandong provincial government is implementing a series of policies to support the deep integration and collaborative innovation of culture and technology [1][3] - The provincial cultural and tourism department aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of cultural technology platforms by leveraging leading centers such as the Qingdao National Virtual Reality Innovation Center [3] - Key support will be provided for the construction of national and provincial-level laboratories focused on advanced display technologies and cultural heritage research [3][4] Group 2 - Development of a cultural and tourism data platform will utilize existing resources like the Qilu Cultural Model and the Shandong Public Cultural Cloud to improve data service capabilities [3] - A multi-functional technology achievement transformation service platform will be established to accelerate the application of cultural technology achievements [3] - The provincial government will strengthen talent and funding support by enhancing vocational education and exploring new models of industry-education integration [4]

为了构建全民共享的阅读生态，西湖区以阅读空间为核心，整合周边文化资源，打造街区阅读大场 景。比如，"曙光路漫步风情街"整合浙江图书馆、杭州少儿图书馆等文化资源，通过拆除围墙、增设外 摆空间、引入复合业态，形成"转角遇见书"的文化生态圈。"留下1129文化街区"以老街为基底、南宋主 题书房为主调，打造宋韵沉浸式阅读体验空间。 值得一提的是，"数字阅读"也在西湖区得到生动的演绎。 书香是最好的城市气质。碧树环绕、白墙黛瓦，西湖边的宝藏地标——"阅见西湖"书房，以阅读为 桥梁，嫁接起更多美好的生活方式。文三数字生活街区的"西湖遇见敦煌"书香艺术空间，已成为敦煌美 学和西湖文化碰撞的天花板。 在西湖区，越来越多书香四溢的"文化粮仓"在家门口涌现。记者从7月3日举行的西湖区全力打 造"阅读第一区"新闻发布会上了解到，全区共有阅读空间290个、面积19.5万平方米。其中，累计改造 提升镇街特色阅读空间31家，涌现出阅见西湖、西湖遇见敦煌、蔡志忠美术馆等标志性阅读空间。 值得一提的是，"走读西湖"阅读护照把读万卷书和行万里路结合在一起，创新打造"阅读+旅游"的 深度体验。 "西湖区有很多特色的阅读空间，我们希望把这些空间串 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the Chinese Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) training program initiated in 2015, highlighting the integration of ICH practitioners into higher education institutions to foster cultural exchange and innovation [1][2] Group 1: Training Programs and Their Impact - The training programs emphasize "filling gaps," "consolidating skills," "theoretical cultivation," and "establishing systems," which are frequently mentioned by educators involved in the ICH training [2] - Nanjing Normal University has hosted multiple training sessions for ICH practitioners, focusing on traditional operas and addressing the generational gap in skills and modern aesthetic disconnect [5] - The program at Suzhou Industrial Design University has revitalized the "Taohuawu Woodblock New Year Pictures" craft, which was on the verge of extinction, by integrating it into the curriculum and offering credits that align with other majors [7][8] Group 2: Cultural and Economic Integration - The training programs encourage practitioners to merge traditional crafts with modern aesthetics, leading to the creation of brands and enhancing the marketability of ICH products [9] - Participants like Lai Lei, a representative of the Dong ethnic group's clothing, have learned to design marketable products, such as mascots for local events, thereby increasing community income and self-esteem [9][10] - East China University of Science and Technology has trained over 300 ICH practitioners and emphasizes the importance of understanding and presenting ethnic elements in contemporary design [10] Group 3: Cross-Disciplinary Innovation - The concept of "cross-disciplinary" training has emerged, where practitioners from different crafts collaborate, enhancing creativity and expanding the potential applications of their skills [12] - Institutions like Shanghai University have developed a comprehensive model for cross-disciplinary innovation, facilitating collaboration between ICH practitioners and designers, resulting in over 1,200 innovative works across various sectors [13][14] - The integration of different materials and techniques has led to unique products, such as bamboo and porcelain combinations, showcasing the potential of traditional crafts in modern contexts [14]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Hainan Province Tourism, Culture, and Sports Financial Service Center" aims to enhance the integration of the tourism, culture, and sports industries with financial resources, marking a significant step in improving the investment and financing mechanisms in Hainan Province [2] Group 1: Financial Service Center Objectives - The financial service center is designed to create a comprehensive financial service platform that integrates policy coordination, resource integration, and industry connection [2] - It will focus on two main functions: facilitating the integration of tourism, culture, and sports industries with financial services, and empowering industry investment attraction [2][3] Group 2: Operational Mechanisms - The center will implement operational mechanisms including a dedicated working group, a financing service platform, and annual industry-financing connection events [2] - This initiative is expected to strengthen financial and fiscal policies, further improving the investment and financing mechanisms for the tourism and culture industries in Hainan Free Trade Port [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The event saw the awarding of plaques to various financial institutions, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, recognizing their role in supporting the financial service center [2] - A total of 15 financial institutions, including the National Development Bank, signed a joint action initiative to support the tourism, culture, and sports industries in Hainan Province [2] Group 4: Future Plans - The provincial tourism and culture department plans to leverage the financial service center as a key tool to enhance the "policy guidance + platform support + market operation" collaborative mechanism [3] - The goal is to accelerate the construction of an industry ecosystem characterized by resource sharing, complementary advantages, and mutual benefits [3]

苏超联赛激战正酣，镇江文旅集团也推出新举措。记者近日从镇江文旅集团了解到，为迎接今夏 的"苏超"赛程，集团推出智慧神器"苏超一码通"，目前已正式启用。游客只需扫码，即可一次性查阅门 票优惠、景区活动、酒店套餐等各类资讯，实现"码上畅游"。 镇江文旅集团相关负责人表示，"苏超一码通"的推出是为了让球迷来镇江的旅行更便利、更高 效。"我们希望大家来到镇江，不仅能看球，还能轻松游览景区、住上好酒店、逛逛夜市，把'看球流 量'转化为'城市留量'。"集团将结合后续赛程与暑期客流，持续更新活动内容，为游客提供更丰富、更 便捷的智慧旅行体验。（纪安璐 记者 陶立波） 根据最新文旅政策，凡与镇江相关的"苏超"比赛所在周末，无论镇江是主客场，对阵城市市民（凭 身份证、儿童可凭户口簿）均可免费畅游镇江所有国家A级旅游景区；9月30日前，全省所有持与镇江 相关的"苏超"比赛电子球票的外地球迷除比赛所在周末景区免费外，再次来镇均可任选A级旅游景区 （点）免费游览一次。 夜游、游船、市集，文旅"新玩法"也接连上新。7月率先迎来"看苏超赏荷花"荷花季，在白娘子爱 情文化园打卡七彩千叶廊桥、红船画舫茶歇；北固湾和春江潮广场将分别于7月5日 ...