当奶粉行业的浪潮在品牌集中化与赛道细分化的双重作用下翻涌，当消费需求向着精细化、功能化的深 海潜行，蒙牛奶粉板块以科研为舟、营销为帆、渠道为桨，在变局中开辟出一条重回增长的航道。 8月27日，蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)发布2025年度中期业绩公告。公告显示，上半年蒙牛奶粉板块收入16.8亿 元，同比增长2.5%，利润9963.7万元，同比显著提升，展现出强劲的发展韧性、对行业趋势的精准把握 和对消费需求的深刻洞察。 科研破壁 建全龄营养技术护城河 奶粉行业的竞争已驶入"技术为王"的深海。消费者对"科学实证"的诉求愈发强烈，蒙牛奶粉以"科研破 壁"为铲，在全龄营养的版图上挖出属于自己的技术护城河。 婴配粉市场，蒙牛瑞哺恩以技术突破，精准踩中90、95后宝妈"精细化育儿"的时代脉搏，继全球首创开 发及应用母源MLCT和新型OPO之后，瑞哺恩推出全球首款Sn-2DHA婴幼儿粉"瑞哺恩亲益"，其Sn-2位 DHA含量相比普通DHA提升了48%，更接近母乳结构，吸收率达较普通DHA提升了100%。核心产品瑞 哺恩恩至凭"母源MLCT+新型OPO"专利亲和配方及实证10大喂养效果再获顶级权威认证，斩获2025年 世界乳品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million CNY, up 24.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas goat milk powder segment showed significant growth, with a 65.7% increase in revenue to 483 million CNY, accounting for 25.9% of total goat milk powder revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and improving net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.6% in H1 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in overseas goat milk powder sales and is developing its nutrition products as a second growth avenue [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.887 billion CNY and a net profit of 181 million CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.6% and 24.1% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly acquired cheese business [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from cow milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutrition products in H1 2025 was 961 million CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 156 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% respectively [2]. - The newly added cheese business generated 479 million CNY in revenue [2]. Market Outlook - The company expects domestic goat milk powder revenue to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed, and policies stimulate demand [4]. - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in core regions such as the Middle East and North America [2][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 299 million CNY, 357 million CNY, and 410 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 semi-annual results, showing a slight revenue increase but a decline in net profit, indicating mixed performance in a challenging market environment [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 61.777 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 7.016 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue reached 28.838 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 16.485 billion yuan in Q2, showing a slight decline of 0.85% year-on-year due to weak demand [1]. - The company experienced improved operational efficiency and reduced impairment losses, contributing to a positive performance despite ongoing pressures in the liquid milk sector [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products like milk powder [1]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates steady revenue growth in H2 2025, supported by healthy inventory levels in liquid milk and innovative low-temperature products [1]. - There is an expected recovery in demand for infant formula and enhanced competitiveness in adult milk powder, indicating a positive trend for profitability [1].

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Mengniu Dairy's management acknowledges that declining sales remain a major challenge for the company, although certain segments like fresh milk and cheese show resilience and growth [1] Financial Performance - Management expects a mid to high single-digit decline in annual revenue, while operating profit margin is anticipated to remain stable [1] - Due to falling product prices, profits are expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the goal is to expand operating profit margin by 30 to 50 basis points annually over the next three years [1] Shareholder Returns - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% compared to last year and plans an additional stock buyback program worth 1 billion [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for the group, reflecting the long-term profit improvement potential and capital allocation [1] - However, the firm has lowered its earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 10% to 16% due to weaker-than-expected liquid milk sales, resulting in a target price reduction from HKD 23.3 to HKD 21.1 [1]

Core Insights - Rabobank has released the 2025 Global Dairy Top 20 ranking, based on the projected performance of dairy companies in 2024, which is considered one of the most authoritative rankings in the global dairy industry [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The total revenue of the top 20 global dairy companies is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, following a 0.6% increase in 2024 [3] - Lactalis maintains its leading position in the dairy sector, with an estimated revenue of $31.9 billion for 2024, and is expected to continue its dominance through significant acquisitions [3][5] - Nestlé ranks second with an estimated revenue of $23.9 billion, while Dairy Farmers of America holds the third position with $23.0 billion, significantly impacted by U.S. milk prices [3][6] Group 2: Company Rankings and Changes - The 2025 ranking indicates that approximately half of the listed companies are expected to retain their positions by 2026, with major mergers anticipated to cause significant shifts in the rankings [4] - Notable mergers include Royal FrieslandCampina with Milcobel, Arla Foods with DMK, and Unilever's divestment of its ice cream business, which may lead to the exit of Unilever and DMK from the top 20 [4] - Potential candidates to fill the vacancies left by Unilever and DMK include Dream (Unilever's spun-off subsidiary) and Emmi (Swiss dairy company) [4] Group 3: Detailed Rankings - The estimated revenues for the top 5 companies in 2025 are as follows: 1. Lactalis: $31.9 billion [5] 2. Nestlé: $23.9 billion [6] 3. Dairy Farmers of America: $23.0 billion [6] 4. Danone: $20.7 billion [6] 5. Yili: $15.8 billion [6] - Other notable companies in the top 20 include Arla Foods, Fonterra, FrieslandCampina, and Unilever, with varying estimated revenues [6][7]

公司25Q2 收入/归母净利润分别同比+5.77%/+44.65%，业绩超预期，其中液体乳受需求影响承压，但奶 粉、冷饮等业务表现优异，新品及海外渠道稳健发展，整体份额逆势提升。下半年趋势有望延续，我们 看好公司竞争优势下体现的业绩韧性，分红有望稳中提升，整体股息率可观。我们预计25-27 年公司eps 分别为1.8 元、2.0 元、2.2 元，对应25 年估值15X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 公司25Q2 收入/归母净利润分别同比+5.77%/+44.65%，业绩超预期。伊利股份发布2025 年半年度报 告，25H1 公司实现收入619.33 亿元，同比+3.37%；归母净利润72.00 亿元，同比-4.39%；扣非归母净 利润70.16 亿元，同比+31.78%，其中扣非归母净利润大幅提升主要系收入增加同时毛利率提升导致毛 利额增加。单Q2 看，公司Q2 实现收入289.15 亿元，同比+5.77%；归母净利润23.26 亿元，同比 +44.65%；扣非归母净利润23.87 亿元，同比+49.48%。上半年经营活动现金流量净额同比-44.34%，主 要系预收经销商货款下降幅度较同期增加，使得销售商品收到的现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, while showing strong growth in non-recurring net profit [1][4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 61.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%. The non-recurring net profit was 7.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 28.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.65%, and non-recurring net profit of 2.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.48% [1]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 16.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, indicating ongoing pressure in the ambient milk market, although the decline was less severe due to a low base from the previous year. Conversely, the low-temperature liquid milk segment saw growth, with the "Changqing" brand achieving double-digit growth and low-temperature white milk increasing over 20% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 7.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.65%, driven by a recovery in the infant formula market and strengthened competitiveness. The ice cream segment generated revenue of 4.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.96%, benefiting from higher summer temperatures and increased consumer spending [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products like milk powder. The overall expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs improved, with a notable decrease in advertising and marketing expenses [3]. - The company experienced a reduction in credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses, contributing to a net profit margin of 7.94%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit margin improved to 8.28%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - For H2 2025, the company expects steady revenue growth driven by healthy inventory levels in ambient milk, innovative low-temperature products, and a recovery in infant formula demand. The cold drink segment is also anticipated to continue its strong performance due to a low base from the previous year [4]. - The company is positioned for improved profitability as it enters Q3, with expectations of stabilizing milk prices and reduced impairment pressures, indicating a clear trend of profit improvement [4].

大和发表研究报告指，蒙牛乳业上半年收入按年下降6.9%，较市场预期低3%，而经营利润达到35亿 元，按年增长13%，比市场预期高9%。管理层指引全年收入将有中至高单位数下跌，全年经营利润率 将按年持平。该行估算，意味下半年收入将按年下降6至7%，经营利润率将收窄至约8%，导致下半年 经营利润按跌下约20%。由于渠道能力较弱，蒙牛正在将市场份额流失予伊利。该行维持蒙牛"买入"评 级，目标价由26.5港元下调至22港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. with a target price of 36 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance is showing clear signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in profitability trends. The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in net profit and a positive revenue growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report highlights that despite a challenging industry environment, Yili's inventory management and innovative product offerings in the low-temperature segment are expected to stabilize revenue growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Yili achieved a revenue of 61.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% year-on-year [2][6]. - The second quarter of 2025 recorded a revenue of 28.838 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% to 2.326 billion yuan [2][6]. - Key financial metrics forecasted for 2025 include total revenue of 119.109 billion yuan, a net profit of 10.742 billion yuan, and earnings per share of 1.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [2][6]. Product Segment Performance - The report notes that the liquid milk segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 0.85% year-on-year, while the low-temperature liquid milk segment experienced robust growth, with the "Changqing" brand achieving double-digit growth [2][6]. - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products increased by 9.65% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the infant formula market and enhanced competitiveness [2][6]. - The ice cream segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 37.96% year-on-year, attributed to higher summer temperatures and improved consumer spending [2][6]. Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products [2][6]. - The report indicates a reduction in credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses, contributing positively to profitability, with the net profit margin reaching 7.94%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates stable revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by healthy inventory levels and innovative product launches. The demand for infant formula is expected to recover, and the cheese segment is projected to drive growth [2][6]. - The report suggests that with the stabilization of milk prices and reduced impairment pressures, Yili is well-positioned to meet its annual operational targets [2][6].

近几年，伴随着国内人口结构的剧烈变迁，以往作为母婴产业"第一大品类"的婴配粉赛道遭遇增长瓶 颈。婴配粉品牌亟须通过推出差异化产品，来强化自身的市场竞争力。而在这场迈向差异化的激烈角逐 中，A2蛋白奶粉、羊奶粉如今早已是品牌林立、产品繁多。在此背景下，头顶"奶中皇后"光环的娟姗 奶源，正逐渐成为各大乳企在存量市场中寻求增量机会的关键筹码。 据悉，塞纳牧娟姗有机奶粉采用100%娟姗有机生牛乳，其乳脂肪含量达普通奶源的1.5倍，奶味浓郁， 更符合宝宝的口感；此外其含有1.3倍乳蛋白、1.2倍高钙及更高微量元素，原生营养价值更高。 在此基础上，塞纳牧娟姗有机奶粉还兼顾行业领先的尊贵配方，其优越性主要表现在自护力、吸收力、 认知力三大方面。行业领先的7倍高纯度乳铁蛋白和6倍活性蛋白OPN，协同构建宝宝免疫防护；珍稀有 机OPO模拟母乳脂肪结构，守护肠道健康，有效促进关键营养吸收；18大活性脑营养群，促进宝宝脑、 眼、神经全面发育，助力智慧成长。 塞纳牧娟姗有机奶粉通过尊贵奶源锚定差异化坐标，再以多重营养保护突破配方天花板，最终实现了产 品竞争力的飞跃。 塞纳牧娟姗有机奶粉的推出，为消费者提供了高品质、差异化的选择，也以 ...