Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Views - The USDA significantly raised the corn production forecast for the U.S. while lowering the soybean production forecast [1][15] - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points this week [11] Summary by Sections Global Supply and Demand Adjustments - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season was lowered by 1.65 million tons to 807 million tons, with consumption down by 1.1 million tons to 809.5 million tons [2][16] - Global rice production was raised by 200,000 tons to 541.5 million tons, with consumption up by 400,000 tons to 542 million tons [2][16] - Global corn production was increased by 24.92 million tons to 1.28886 billion tons, primarily due to a 26.33 million ton increase in U.S. corn production [2][16] - Global soybean production was decreased by 1.3 million tons to 426 million tons, mainly due to declines in the U.S. and Serbia [2][16] Domestic Supply and Demand Forecasts - China's corn supply and demand forecast remains unchanged from last month, with overall supply and demand in a tight balance [3][17] - The soybean supply and demand forecast for China also remains unchanged, with favorable conditions for growth in major production areas [3][17] Livestock and Poultry - The national price for lean pigs is 13.74 CNY/kg, down 0.4% from last week, indicating a relatively low valuation [18][19] - White feather chicken prices increased to 7.2 CNY/kg, up 0.8% from last week, while chicken product prices decreased to 8.8 CNY/kg, down 0.6% [18][32] - The price of meat chicken chicks rose to 3.58 CNY each, up 14.4% from last week [18][28] Agricultural Products and Planting - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [18] - The agricultural sector is experiencing increased price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages [18] Price Trends - Domestic corn spot price is 2394.12 CNY/ton, down 0.1% from last week [46] - Domestic soybean spot price is 3952.63 CNY/ton, up 0.7% from last week [56] - Domestic wheat spot price is 2438.11 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase from last week [51]

Core Viewpoint - The company has provided projections for its sales of parent stock and commercial broiler chicks for the year 2025, indicating significant expected volumes in both categories [2]. Group 1: Sales Projections - The company anticipates a sales volume of over 10 million sets for parent stock broiler chicks in 2025 [2]. - The expected sales volume for commercial broiler chicks is projected to exceed 600 million [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that chicken prices are gradually rebounding due to reduced supply since mid-July, leading to improved profitability for farmers and increased willingness to restock [1][2] - In July, the average price of chicken seedlings was 1.41 yuan per chick, down 43% year-on-year and 38% month-on-month; the average price of live chickens was 6.52 yuan per kilogram, down 12% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month [1] - The demand for chicken seedlings is overall positive due to the upcoming school season, although the supply of chicken seedlings has decreased due to increased culling of breeding chickens [1] Group 2 - The price of yellow feathered chickens has shown signs of recovery in late July, with expectations for a favorable market in August [3] - The average price of fast-growing chickens in July was 3.94 yuan per pound, down 19.6% year-on-year but up 3.2% month-on-month; the average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 6.43 yuan per pound, down 27% year-on-year but up 5% month-on-month [3] - The cost of raising yellow feathered chickens has decreased significantly, with costs for leading companies falling to around 5.6 yuan per pound, indicating potential for substantial profit release as prices recover [3][4] Group 3 - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025 due to a significant decrease in overseas imports, which will also affect the supply of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [2][4] - The current inventory of parent stock chickens is at a historically low level, which may lead to a contraction in supply and set the stage for future price increases [4] - The long-term outlook for the yellow feathered chicken market remains positive, driven by changing consumer habits, implementation of sales bans, and economic recovery boosting consumption [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Chinese Native Chicken Industry Base" aims to enhance the recognition and influence of the native chicken industry in Xinxing County, Guangdong, promoting high-quality agricultural development and creating a new industrial development pattern through collaboration [3][4][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Chinese Native Chicken Industry Base" co-construction ceremony was held on August 12 in Xinxing County, Guangdong, focusing on making Chinese people love native chicken [3]. - Key attendees included former Chief Agronomist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Sun Zhonghua, and leaders from major agricultural enterprises like Wen's Group [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Development - Xinxing County has been cultivating six major billion-dollar industrial clusters, including modern agriculture and prepared dishes, to accelerate agricultural modernization [4]. - The county has established a complete industrial chain from breeding, raising, processing, to sales and distribution, enhancing the market presence of "Xinxing Native Chicken" [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - The event included the signing of strategic cooperation agreements with various institutions covering research and development, deep processing, channels, and promotion across the entire industrial chain [9]. - Wen's Group announced a new corporate identity for "Wen's Livestock" and "Wen's Ingredients," emphasizing its commitment to industry upgrades [9][12]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Experts discussed the innovative directions for deep processing of native chicken and highlighted its nutritional advantages, such as being low in fat and high in protein [10][11]. - Wen's Group's leadership emphasized the importance of cultural heritage in promoting native chicken and the potential market growth through emotional value [11]. Group 5: Future Vision - Wen's Group aims to achieve over 100 billion in revenue by 2024, transitioning from a livestock company to a food enterprise, with a focus on the food ingredient business [12][13]. - The company plans to enhance research and development in key technologies and promote the cultural aspects of native chicken through collaborations with well-known IPs [13][14].

Core Points - The South African government has announced five key measures to address the 30% unilateral tariffs imposed by the US on South African exports since August 7 [1][3] - These measures include ongoing tariff negotiations with the US, diversification of export markets, economic support initiatives, trade defense actions, and domestic demand stimulation plans [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - South Africa has submitted a revised trade agreement to the US, addressing concerns raised by the US and making adjustments on import access for poultry, blueberries, and pork [1] - The US trade agency has confirmed that it will begin exporting poultry and pork to South Africa from multiple states within two weeks [1] Group 2: Export Market Diversification - South Africa aims to accelerate the development of the African Continental Free Trade Area and expand into markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East [3] - The government plans to deploy trade and agricultural commissioners to enhance export certification and biosecurity standards, thereby increasing economic resilience [3] Group 3: Economic Support Initiatives - The economic support plan includes establishing an export enterprise consulting service platform and creating a localized support fund [3] - An export and competitiveness support program will be launched, along with employment security measures for affected workers in collaboration with the labor department [3] Group 4: Trade Defense Measures - South Africa will implement anti-dumping, countervailing, and safeguard measures as necessary, in accordance with WTO rules, to prevent surges in imports and low-priced dumping that could harm domestic industries [3] Group 5: Domestic Demand Stimulation - A platform for promoting local brands will collaborate with businesses and retailers to expand the sales of domestic products, leveraging domestic demand to support the economy [3] - The South African government emphasizes the importance of maintaining the US market while accelerating market diversification to ensure employment and industrial stability [3]

Industry Overview - In early July, the price of white feather broiler chickens fell below 3 yuan per jin, but by August, the price surged to a maximum of 3.7 yuan per jin, with chick prices increasing from 1.5 yuan per chick to 4.2 yuan per chick, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1] - In Shandong, a major broiler production province, chick prices experienced a staggering increase of 300% within just over a month [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - The reduction in the import volume of grandparent stock has negatively impacted the production of commercial broiler chicks, leading to a scarcity of advantageous commercial chicks in the future [1] - According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, the update volume of grandparent meat breed chickens in the first half of this year decreased by 36.72% year-on-year, which will affect the supply of parent stock meat breed chickens in 7 months and commercial white feather meat chickens in 14 months [1] - Nationwide high temperatures this year have resulted in a 15% decrease in chick survival rates, and the number of chickens aged 40-60 days has decreased by 8% month-on-month, exacerbating the supply tightness [1] Market Sentiment - Farmers are optimistic about the holiday consumption market, as the replenishment in August corresponds to the pre-National Day market [1] Related Companies - A-share related concept stocks include Lihua Co., Ltd. and Xiantan Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Chinese Native Chicken Industry Base" aims to enhance the quality and recognition of the native chicken industry in Xinxing County, promoting local agricultural development and aligning with national agricultural optimization strategies [2][9][19]. Group 1 - The "Chinese Native Chicken Industry Base" was officially launched on August 12 in Xinxing County, with participation from various government and industry representatives [2][4][6]. - Xinxing County is recognized for its favorable natural environment, making it an ideal location for native chicken farming [8]. - The initiative aligns with national efforts to optimize agricultural structures and promote high-quality specialty agricultural products [9][10][19]. Group 2 - Xinxing County has been actively developing modern agriculture and has established six major billion-dollar industry clusters, including the native chicken industry [18][19]. - The county has a complete industrial chain from breeding to processing and sales, which is crucial for enhancing the market presence of "Xinxing Native Chicken" [26][29]. - The collaboration aims to create a new development model characterized by resource sharing and mutual benefits among stakeholders [31][32]. Group 3 - Industry leaders, including Wen's Group, emphasize the importance of stabilizing urban consumption while expanding market reach and enhancing brand recognition [48][50]. - The Chinese Food Industry Association will support the brand development of the native chicken industry through various promotional activities [40][42]. - Experts discussed strategies for revitalizing the native chicken industry, focusing on brand building and market guidance [55].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share chicken sector is experiencing a rebound, with the white feather broiler market showing signs of recovery, particularly in chick prices, which are expected to reach new highs in August [1][3]. Industry Summary - The white feather broiler industry faced a significant price drop in June, with chick prices hitting a low of 0.73 yuan per chick, but began to recover in July due to reduced hatchery output and rising prices of broilers [1][2]. - As of July 31, the mainstream market price for white feather broiler chicks rose to 2.95 yuan per chick, with enterprise quotes increasing to 3.4 yuan per chick [1]. - The parent stock of white feather broiler chicks decreased by 2.13% in July, with an expected further decline of 1.54% in August, leading to lower hatchling output compared to the previous year [2]. Demand and External Factors - The demand for chicks is increasing due to seasonal factors, such as school preparations, and the correlation between chick and broiler prices is driving up demand as broiler prices rise [2][3]. - External factors, including strict regulations on Thai poultry exports and ongoing import restrictions from Brazil, are contributing to a positive sentiment in the chick market, with broiler prices increasing by 500 to 1000 yuan per ton [2]. Company Performance - Major companies in the white feather broiler sector, such as Shandong Minhe Livestock and Poultry Co., reported a 26.87% increase in chick sales in July, although revenue decreased by 27.3% [3]. - Yisheng Livestock and Poultry Co. also saw a 7.51% increase in chick sales, but a significant revenue drop of 46.39%, indicating the ongoing impact of the market downturn on company performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development, Wen's Shares, and others [7]. Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on the recovery cycle of feed and the marginal improvement in breeding [1]. - The pig price has decreased week-on-week, with average prices in key provinces showing a decline [3]. - The feed industry is expected to see a bottoming out and recovery due to the decline in upstream raw material prices and improvements in the downstream breeding sector [3]. - The report highlights the potential growth of Haida Group's overseas feed business as a new performance growth point [3]. Industry Performance - For the week of August 4 to August 10, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.23%, while the agriculture sector increased by 2.52%, ranking 10th among sectors [2][24]. - The top-performing sub-industries included broiler chicken breeding, fruit and vegetable processing, and pig breeding [2][24]. Pig Breeding Sector - As of August 8, the average price of external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan was 13.30, 15.39, and 13.83 yuan/kg, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.92%, 4.05%, and 3.82% [3][33]. - The average pork price was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.92% from the previous week [3][33]. - The self-breeding profit was 45.13 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was -134.14 yuan/head [3][33]. Poultry Sector - As of August 8, the weekly price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.14 yuan/kg, up 4.54% week-on-week [3][47]. - The price of broiler chicks was 3.13 yuan/chick, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 21.79% [3][47]. - The profit from chicken breeding was 0.62 yuan/chick, while egg prices fell by 6.94% to 6.70 yuan/kg [3][47]. Feed Processing Sector - In June 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 27.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [54]. - The production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed saw year-on-year growth of 6.6%, 3.4%, and 8.7%, respectively [54]. Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Wen's Shares, Shengnong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope in the pig breeding sector due to expected profitability recovery starting from Q2 2024 [4]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming years [5].