Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government's recent budget proposal to extend the HKD 100 stamp duty to residential properties valued up to HKD 4 million has alleviated the financial burden on buyers, leading to a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In April, Hong Kong recorded 496 second-hand housing transactions, a 36% increase from 366 in March, marking the highest level in nearly nine months [1][2] - The total transaction value for the same period was approximately HKD 18.7 billion, up 35% from HKD 13.88 billion in March [1][2] - The average price of second-hand housing in April was about HKD 3.771 million, a slight decrease of 0.6% from March's HKD 3.792 million, reaching the lowest level in over 104 months [2] Group 2: Price Segmentation - All six price segments for second-hand housing saw an increase in transaction volume, with the segment under HKD 2 million experiencing the largest growth, recording 23 transactions, a 109% increase [3] - The most active segment was the HKD 3 million to HKD 4 million range, with 246 transactions, up 59% from 155 in March [3] - By region, Kowloon recorded 151 transactions, a 72% increase; New Territories saw 297 transactions, up 29%; while Hong Kong Island had 48 transactions, a slight increase of 2% [3] Group 3: Notable Transactions - The highest recorded transaction in April was for a unit in Ngau Chi Wan, sold for HKD 8 million, with an average price per square foot of HKD 12,618, the highest for second-hand housing that month [2] - The top-performing estate in terms of transaction volume was Regal Garden in Kowloon Bay, with 26 transactions, a 271% increase from the previous month [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The easing of the US-China trade war and the reduction in Hong Kong's interbank lending rates are expected to boost buyer confidence and overall market activity [6] - However, the transition period for the "White Form" housing scheme and the upcoming sale of new public housing units may create competition for second-hand housing, potentially leading to a decrease in transaction volume in May [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is recovering, and with the successful implementation of the "One Body, Three Wings" strategy, the company has achieved stable performance in Q1 2025, showing significant growth in transaction volume and net income [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total transaction volume (GTV) of 843.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, and net income of 23.3 billion RMB, up 42.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 855 million RMB [1][2]. - The company's operating efficiency has improved, leading to a decrease in operating expenses to 4.2 billion RMB, down 31.3% quarter-on-quarter, and an adjusted net profit of 1.393 billion RMB [4]. Group 2: Business Segments - The core brokerage business has shown high growth, with existing home transaction volume reaching 580.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, and new home transaction volume at 232.2 billion RMB, up 53% [2][3]. - Non-real estate transaction services have become a significant growth driver, with net income from this segment growing 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 35.9% of total net income [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The "One Body, Three Wings" strategy includes new home and existing home transactions as the core, with the three wings being home renovation, rental services, and the Beihome business [3][5]. - The company has invested in AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, launching tools like the AI house-hunting assistant "Pudding" and the client communication assistant "Laike" to improve user experience and transaction rates [2][3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, with a significant increase in transaction volume and viewing numbers since the policy changes in September 2024 [5]. - The shift towards a stock market era in real estate is favorable for the company, as the proportion of existing home transactions has rapidly increased, reaching a historical high of 46% by the end of 2024 [5].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房二手房成交面积环比改善，持续推进城市 更新 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 19 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -26% -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024/5/20 2024/9/18 2025/1/17 2025/5/18 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-0.5%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.1%、0.7%，超额收益分别为- 1.6%、-1.2%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 25。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新房成交面积 205.1 万方，环比+29.6%，同 比-12.5%。2025 年 5 月 1 日至 5 月 16 日累计成交 381.4 万方，同比- 2.4%。今年截至 5 月 16 日累计成交 3684.7 万方， ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the "loan off-season" and emphasizes the observation of the effects of monetary easing, with May to June being a critical period for assessing the impact of incremental policies [1][6][7] - Financial data from April shows an increase in social financing scale, with new social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan, and a recovery in the growth rate of social financing stock to 8.7% [6][7] - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-interest environment [6][7] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current state of China's sci-tech bond market, noting that it is in its early development stage compared to overseas markets, characterized by a smaller market size, shorter issuance periods, and higher ratings [2][8] - It forecasts that as the sci-tech bond market matures, there will be rapid growth in market size and a diversification of issuance entities, particularly from high-tech industries, which will better match the long R&D cycles of innovative enterprises [2][11] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with excavator sales in April increasing by 18% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend [3][12] - The report notes that domestic excavator sales reached 49,109 units in the first four months of 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by factors such as the replacement of aging equipment and improved funding conditions [12][13] - It recommends several companies in the engineering machinery sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [3][12] Company Recommendations - The report highlights Beike-W (02423.HK) as a leading player in the domestic real estate brokerage industry, with Q1 2025 revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a 42.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [4][14] - The company is projected to see continued growth in its second-hand housing business, driven by an increase in transaction volume and market coverage [4][15] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Beike-W for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.62 billion, and 13.62 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][15]

2025 年 05 月 19 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房二手房成交面积环比改善，持续推进城市 更新 增持（维持） 行业走势 《公积金贷款利率下调，市场有望逐 步企稳》 2025-05-13 《三部委发布会点评：公积金贷款利 率下调，货币政策支持行业止跌回 稳 》 2025-05-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-0.5%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.1%、0.7%，超额收益分别为- 1.6%、-1.2%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 25。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新房成交面积 205.1 万方，环比+29.6%，同 比-12.5%。2025 年 5 月 1 日至 5 月 16 日累计成交 381.4 万方，同比- 2.4%。今年截至 5 月 16 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company continues to expand its capacity, with significant improvements in fee management leading to enhanced potential profitability. The self-operated platform drives GTV growth, and both existing and new housing monetization ratios have improved sequentially. The company is expected to maintain a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential earnings elasticity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.3 billion (up 42.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.86 billion (up 98.2%). Adjusted net profit was 1.39 billion (up 0.1%) [6]. - The company’s GTV for Q1 2025 was 843.7 billion (up 34.0%), with existing and new housing businesses growing by 28.1% and 53.0%, respectively [6]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from existing housing and new housing businesses increased by 20.0% and 64.2%, respectively. Home decoration revenue grew by 22.3%, while rental revenue surged by 93.8% [6]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, but gross profit increased by 17.0% year-on-year [6]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The company effectively managed costs, with selling, general, and administrative expenses decreasing as a percentage of revenue by 7.0 percentage points to 18.1%. The tax rate also decreased by 10.3 percentage points to 38.1% [6]. - As of Q1 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 54.8 billion, indicating strong liquidity. The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 1.39 billion on share buybacks [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see adjusted net profits of 8.25 billion, 9.02 billion, and 10.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.2, 18.5, and 16.6 [6]. - The company has room for growth in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental segments are anticipated to contribute to future growth [2][6].

Financial Report Key Information Review - Total revenue for Q2 2023 was RMB 20,204 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 21% [1] - Existing home revenue was RMB 6,050 million, up 49% year-over-year [1] - New home revenue reached RMB 8,404 million, a 42% year-over-year increase [1] - Gross profit was RMB 6,350 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 25.5% [1] - Operating profit was RMB 2,978 million, showing a significant increase of 215.3% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 3,561 million, with a net profit margin (NPM) of 21.6% [1] Management's Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its home decoration business by improving product design and project management capabilities, with project managers achieving a 156% year-over-year increase in average monthly orders [2] - In the rental service sector, the company manages over 500,000 rental properties, focusing on improving default management and renewal rates [2] AI Technology Application - An AI-driven housing search system has been launched in two cities, capturing 40% of homepage traffic [2] - Over 200,000 agents are using tools that allow them to manage more than 2.5 million clients, improving efficiency metrics [2] - An AI property maintenance system has been adopted by 110,000 agents, servicing 400,000 homeowners [2] Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market showed strong recovery in Q1, with a 16% year-over-year increase in transactions, driven by policy effects that lowered purchasing thresholds [3] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand home prices remained stable or slightly increased [4] - The new home market was stable, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.4% in sales [4] - The company anticipates a typical seasonal slowdown in Q2, but expects a slight year-over-year increase in second-hand transaction volume [5] - The impact of international trade tensions on the real estate market is being closely monitored, with a focus on maintaining stable homeowner sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 42.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 23.3 billion yuan, although adjusted net profit remained stable at 1.4 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for Q1 2025 was 843.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, which supported stable revenue growth [1] - Revenue from various business segments showed significant growth: second-hand housing at 6.9 billion yuan (+20.0%), new housing at 8.1 billion yuan (+64.2%), home decoration at 2.9 billion yuan (+22.3%), rental at 5.1 billion yuan (+93.8%), while emerging and other businesses generated 0.3 billion yuan (-50.0%) [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin existing housing business and an increase in fixed salary costs relative to existing housing revenue [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The second-hand housing business saw a total transaction value increase of 28.1% year-on-year to 580.3 billion yuan, supported by an expanding number of active stores and agents [2] - The number of active stores reached 55,000, a 29.6% increase year-on-year, while the number of active agents grew by 49,100, representing a 23.0% increase [2] - The new housing business transaction value surged by 53.0% year-on-year to 232.2 billion yuan, with the commission rate improving by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% [2] - The home decoration business showed steady growth, with contribution margin increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 32.6%, indicating improvements in customer experience and efficiency [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for future earnings growth driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and higher penetration rates in new housing brokerage [3] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.7 billion yuan, 11.6 billion yuan, and 13.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.83 yuan, 2.36 yuan, and 2.91 yuan, and adjusted PE ratios of 16.3X, 14.4X, and 12.3X [3]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 843.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [1] - The company's net revenue reached 23.33 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.82 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.0% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, a significant rise of 98.2% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 1.39 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% [1] Business Segments - The existing home transaction value was 580.3 billion yuan, growing by 28.1% year-on-year, with the second-hand home revenue at 6.87 billion yuan, up 20.0% [2] - New home transaction value reached 232.2 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 53.0%, with new home revenue at 8.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.2% rise [2] - The company’s home decoration and furniture segment generated net revenue of 2.95 billion yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year, while the rental services segment achieved net revenue of 5.09 billion yuan, a 93.8% increase [3] Operational Metrics - The number of active stores increased to 55,210, a year-on-year growth of 29.6%, and the number of active agents reached 491,000, up 23.0% [2] - The contribution profit margin for the existing home business was 38.1%, down 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the new home business had a contribution profit margin of 23.4%, up 1.1 percentage points [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its brokerage business and has established a strong platform barrier, aiming to reshape the underlying framework of brokerage and lock in housing resources [4] - Future growth is expected from home decoration, rental services, and leveraging big data to expand business dimensions [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its market share growth and profitability across various segments, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 6.2 billion, 7.5 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company's brokerage business revenue has shown impressive growth, and profit margins across various segments are steadily recovering [7] - The company has a strong market position in the brokerage sector, with significant increases in transaction volumes and active agents [7] - The company is expected to benefit from its diversified business model, including home decoration and rental services, which are projected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77,777 million - 2024: 93,457 million - 2025E: 110,740 million - 2026E: 122,649 million - 2027E: 135,786 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2023: 28% - 2024: 20% - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 11% - 2027E: 11% [3][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 5,883 million - 2024: 4,065 million - 2025E: 6,201 million - 2026E: 7,544 million - 2027E: 9,121 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023: -524% - 2024: -31% - 2025E: 53% - 2026E: 22% - 2027E: 21% [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 1.63 - 2024: 1.15 - 2025E: 1.77 - 2026E: 2.15 - 2027E: 2.60 [3][8] Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 843.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [7] - The breakdown of Q1 2025 transaction values includes: - Existing home transactions: 580.3 billion (up 28.1%) - New home transactions: 232.2 billion (up 53.0%) [7] - The company achieved a net income of 23.33 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [7] - The number of active stores and agents has increased significantly, with 55,210 active stores (up 29.6%) and 491,000 active agents (up 23.0%) as of Q1 2025 [7]