最近财政部、国家税务总局发布公告，自2025年8月8日起，新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债 券利息收入，将恢复征收增值税；8月8日之前已发行的上述债券的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至 债券到期。据现行增值税法，金融服务适用6%税率，非公募基金的资管产品管理人暂适用简易计税 方法，按3%缴纳增值税。 这一举措将对政府财政产生开源效应，增加政府当期财政收入，缓解财政压力。一些研究机构估算， 对三类债券开征增值税，短期可带来300多亿元收入。 对暂时免征税款的一些优惠政策采取恢复征收等行为，表明部分鼓励性政策正在或业已完成历史使 命，从长远看对市场具有积极的正向意义，将为市场营造更加公平公正的竞争秩序，有利于市场的统 一定价，让不同金融产品和服务基于自身的市场竞争力，寻求市场的供需匹配。 2025.08. 06 本文字数：1289，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财评论员 经济政策是政府与市场的一种对话语言。 这也向市场传递出日益明确的信号，即各类市场主体需全面认真地审视存在暂免、减免等优惠政策， 要对政策可能的退出做好未雨绸缪的准备，以平稳迈过优惠政策调整的过渡期，并管理好由此带来的 可能风险敞口。 优惠政策的退 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the 30-year government bond (511130) indicates a significant level of financing activity, reflecting investor interest in long-term government securities [1] Group 1: Financing Activity - On August 5, the 30-year government bond (511130) had a financing buy amount of 150 million yuan, ranking 100th in the market [1] - The financing repayment amount on the same day was 149 million yuan, resulting in a net buy of 1.05 million yuan [1] - Over the last three trading days (August 1-5), the financing buy amounts for the 30-year government bond were 218 million yuan, 259 million yuan, and 150 million yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Securities Lending - On August 5, there were no shares sold or net sold in the securities lending market for the 30-year government bond [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, there was an initial spike in interest rates due to increased holding costs for new bonds, but this was quickly reversed as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with institutional funds quickly shifting their focus towards older bonds, altering the supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a medium-term impact on the bond market, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds, favoring the latter [2][3]. - Existing bonds are seen to have structural advantages over newly issued bonds due to the continued tax exemption, leading to a preference for older bonds among investors [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Shifts - The tax policy change is expected to lead to a reallocation of funds, with some investors moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly towards stable dividend-paying stocks and credit bonds [3][4]. - Fund companies are adjusting their strategies, with some increasing their focus on "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds and REITs, to compensate for the anticipated decline in returns from pure bond assets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading data indicates a notable activity in the 30-year government bonds, with significant financing buy-ins and net selling observed in the market [1] Group 1: Financing Activity - On August 5, the 30-year government bond (511090) recorded a financing buy-in amount of 330 million yuan, ranking 28th in the market [1] - The financing repayment amount for the same bond on the same day was 380 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 49.90 million yuan [1] - Over the last three trading days (August 1-5), the financing buy-ins for the 30-year government bond were 382 million yuan, 408 million yuan, and 330 million yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Securities Lending - On August 5, there were no shares sold or net sold in the securities lending market for the 30-year government bond [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Market Reaction - The announcement led to an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a rapid reversal as existing bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a significant drop in yields [1] - The market experienced volatility as traders quickly shifted strategies, indicating a rapid change in sentiment [1] Institutional Insights - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a medium to short-term impact on the bond market, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and existing bonds, leading to a buying spree for existing bonds [2][4] - The structural advantage of existing bonds over new issues is expected to influence investor behavior, with a preference for older bonds due to their tax benefits [2][3] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, indicating a proactive approach to manage potential market fluctuations [4] - Institutions are exploring alternative investment strategies, including a shift towards credit bonds, REITs, and equities, as the attractiveness of newly issued bonds diminishes [5][7] Tax Implications - The new tax policy primarily affects interest income, while public funds retain their tax advantages on capital gains, potentially increasing demand for public funds over bank proprietary products [6] - The tax changes are expected to have a limited impact on the overall asset allocation of banks and insurance companies, which continue to view government bonds as essential components of their portfolios [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The announcement led to an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a sharp decline in yields as institutional investors rushed to buy existing bonds benefiting from tax exemptions [1] - The market experienced a rapid shift in sentiment, with traders expressing concerns over the volatility and quick changes in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium to long term, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and existing bonds, prompting a buying spree for existing bonds [2][3] - The adjustment may lead to a shift in investment strategies, with a preference for existing bonds due to their tax advantages, while new bonds may require higher coupon rates to attract investors [2][3] Group 3: Fund Management Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, preparing for potential market volatility [3] - The tax changes are expected to increase the appeal of existing bonds, leading to a strategy of "long existing bonds, short new bonds" among investors [3] Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds may lead to a reallocation of funds from the bond market to equity markets and other asset classes, as the attractiveness of new bonds diminishes [4][5] - Some funds may flow into credit bonds, particularly those with strong credit ratings, as investors seek to optimize returns in light of the new tax burdens [5] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the overall impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with bond funds and money market funds likely to maintain stable yields [3][4] - The long-term demand for government bonds from banks and insurance companies is anticipated to remain strong, as these institutions continue to prioritize asset-liability matching and stable returns [5]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 0.98 basis points, reaching 4.2021%, with intraday fluctuations peaking at 4.2237% before retreating after the release of the ISM non-manufacturing index [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.49 basis points to 3.7201%, maintaining a trading range of 3.6629% to 3.7284% throughout the day [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 3.514 basis points, settling at +47.995 basis points, with fluctuations around +51.751 basis points prior to the ISM data release [1] Group 2 - The 20-year Treasury yield fell by 1.33 basis points, while the 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.69 basis points [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield increased by 3.64 basis points, the 5-year yield rose by 2.76 basis points, and the 7-year yield went up by 2.06 basis points [1] - Following the ISM non-manufacturing data release, the yield spread attempted to rise to +52 basis points but subsequently declined [1]

优惠政策的退出，并非简单的一次性"闪冲"式修正，而是会带来市场估值和风险计价方式的新变化。以 国债等恢复征收增值税为例，其采取的新老划断政策，将在国债、地方政府债券和金融债券领域产生不 同的市场定价策略，会导致在旧债券与新债券上出现"双轨"定价现象，使得相关债券收益率曲线出现分 岔走势。 更为重要的是，优惠政策的退出会对市场的供需弹性产生明显影响，即若国债等不再具有免税效应，那 么改变的不仅是相关债券的风险暴露（EAD）、违约概率（PD）和违约损失率（LGD）等，而且将改 变投资者的需求弹性，即人们在同等信用等级下选择购买国债等，暂缓征收增值税可能是一个重要的动 因。因为债市投资中，哪怕1BP的变动，都会通过杠杆投资产生足以改变投资者策略的选择。 这引出的一个重要话题，是政策如何更润滑地与市场沟通和对话。长期以来各级政府和相关部门，为特 定场景和特定目的诉求，出台了许多临时性优惠政策，如减免、补贴等，在特定时期和场景，激发了市 场主体的积极行为。 经济政策是政府与市场的一种对话语言。 最近财政部、国家税务总局发布公告，自2025年8月8日起，新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利 息收入，将恢复征收增值税；8 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **credit market** and **credit risk analysis** in the context of **China's financial environment**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Reevaluation of Credit Strategies**: The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of credit strategies, as evidenced by the cases of 中航产融 (AVIC Capital) and 万科 (Vanke), highlighting the importance of in-depth credit risk analysis [2][1]. 2. **Integration of Philosophy in Credit Research**: Credit research should combine practical foundations with philosophical thinking, emphasizing the transformation of qualitative insights into a rational analytical framework [3][6]. 3. **Long-term Investment Focus**: Long-term investors must understand the fundamentals of investment subjects, including macroeconomic impacts and policy changes, to establish a systematic analysis framework that combines quantitative and qualitative assessments [1][7]. 4. **Limitations of Existing Default Models**: Existing default models in the Chinese market are not fully applicable and require adjustments based on practical experiences to enhance predictive accuracy [8][9]. 5. **Role of Credit Ratings**: Credit ratings serve as a relative ranking of a company's debt repayment ability rather than complex default probability calculations, aiding investors in understanding relative risk levels [10][14]. 6. **Dynamic Analysis of Local Government Financing**: When analyzing local government financing, it is crucial to understand the dynamic relationship between central and local governments, employing dialectical thinking to assess various influencing factors [11][4]. 7. **Importance of Liquid Assets**: The evaluation of a company's debt repayment ability must focus on cash flow from operational profits, the coverage of liquid assets over debts, and potential external support [17][26]. 8. **Impact of Monetary Policy on Credit Financing**: Credit bond financing is primarily influenced by monetary policy, necessitating close monitoring of issuance policies and macroeconomic monetary policies [9][1]. 9. **Philosophical Thinking in Credit Research**: The application of philosophical thinking in credit research involves understanding the relationship between practice and theory, and the need for continuous verification of conclusions through empirical data [6][3]. 10. **Historical Context of Default Waves**: The historical context of default waves in China reveals different phases, such as the large-scale defaults from 2015 to 2016 due to overcapacity and the subsequent waves affecting private and state-owned enterprises [23][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Credit Rating Agencies**: Credit rating agencies often lack unified rating principles, and their results may be influenced by client demands, necessitating a deeper understanding of the underlying principles and strategies [22][4]. 2. **External Support Evaluation**: When a company cannot cover its debts through operational profits and liquid assets, external support becomes critical, and its effectiveness must be assessed based on the willingness and capacity of the parent company [29][30]. 3. **Investment Strategy Adaptation**: Investment strategies must adapt to market changes, considering the behavior of competitors and the execution of internal strategies [38][42]. 4. **Risk Assessment in Local Government Projects**: Evaluating the risks associated with local government leveraging for infrastructure projects requires careful consideration of economic structures and income levels to avoid potential pitfalls [79][80]. 5. **Sector-Specific Recovery Potential**: Certain sectors, such as real estate and consumer goods, may be approaching recovery phases, indicating potential investment opportunities despite previous downturns [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future considerations in the credit market and investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was followed by a reversal as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Existing bonds are expected to retain structural advantages over newly issued bonds, as investors may prefer older bonds that remain tax-exempt, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of new bonds [2]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Shifts - The tax policy change is likely to lead to a shift in fund allocation, with some funds moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly towards stable dividend-paying stocks and credit bonds [3][4]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with some focusing on "fixed income plus" products that include convertible bonds, REITs, and equities to compensate for the expected decline in returns from pure bond holdings [4].