瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 菜籽类市场周报 国际油价大幅下挫 菜油期价明显走弱 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡下跌，09合约收盘价9466元/吨，较前一周-260元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：短期市场仍聚焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实，且现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导" 阶段。关注后期天气状况以及加拿大统计局6月27日公布的油籽种植面积报告。其它方面，棕榈油 产地步入季节性增产季，产出压力继续牵制其市场价格。不过，出口继续增加对棕榈油市场有所 提振。近期中东局势对国际油价影响较大，使得油脂波动也同步增加。国内方面，油厂库存压力 持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加 菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传导下，给国内菜油市场价 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 25 million yuan, and in Q1 2025, the net profit surpassed 40 million yuan, indicating a turnaround compared to 2023 [1] - By Q2 2025, the company's operational situation remained stable, with good sales performance across all product lines [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition - Sales revenue from alcohol and its by-products accounted for approximately 45% of total sales revenue, with annual sales of alcohol products around 1.3 million tons, of which fuel ethanol is about 1 million tons [1] Group 3: Business Segments - The company operates in three main business segments: food raw materials and ingredients (such as starch, starch sugars, MSG, citric acid, and edible alcohol), biomass energy (fuel ethanol), and bioplastics (such as polylactic acid and polycaprolactone) [1] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio and healthy cash flow, with significant raw material control, market channel development, and customer maintenance capabilities due to its nationwide processing enterprise layout [2] - Increased R&D investment has contributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Group 5: Transformation and Upgrades - Recent expansions include a 150,000-ton starch sugar project in Chengdu and a 550,000-ton new project in Taicang, along with ongoing feasibility studies for other regional layouts [2] - Approximately 400 million yuan has been invested in upgrading thermal power facilities to enhance starch and alcohol business operations [2] Group 6: Future of Fuel Ethanol - Domestic demand for fuel ethanol is currently around 3.3 million tons, with potential for growth aligned with national carbon neutrality strategies and grain policies [2] - Fuel ethanol can theoretically replace gasoline entirely, but in practice, it is typically blended with gasoline at a ratio of about 10% in China, while the U.S. and Brazil can reach up to 40% [2] Group 7: Market Dynamics - Fluctuations in oil prices have historically impacted fuel ethanol prices, but the current market pricing model is primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics [3] - Liquid sugar is generally cheaper than cane sugar, especially in beverage applications where it offers processing advantages [3] Group 8: Risk Management - The company employs futures hedging as a key operational strategy, managing the procurement of millions of tons of corn while producing starch, fructose, and protein feed products to stabilize profits and control price volatility [3] Group 9: Market Communication - Effective market value management is essential for the company, which aims to enhance communication with investors to boost confidence and showcase operational improvements [3] Group 10: Special Syrup Development - The growth of new markets like ready-to-drink tea has led to increased sales of specialty syrups, with plans to continue developing new products and expanding functional sugar offerings [3] Group 11: Biodegradable Materials - The future of biodegradable materials is promising, aligning with national carbon neutrality and environmental requirements, with ongoing projects like the polylactic acid initiative expected to commence trial production by year-end [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of the "Six You" initiative in Fuxin City, which integrates proactive service and project-based approaches to enhance rural revitalization through systematic and digital methods [1] Group 1: Governance and Community Engagement - The grassroots party organization is emphasized as a core support for effective rural governance, with initiatives like environmental policy education and community participation in waste management [4] - Local leaders are actively engaging with residents to address governance challenges, demonstrating a shift from passive observation to active involvement in community improvement [4] Group 2: Conflict Resolution and Service Delivery - Fuxin City has developed a "three-in-one" governance system to address rural disputes more effectively, moving away from reliance on personal connections to a structured approach [5] - The role of grid workers has evolved to become integral in service delivery, ensuring that community needs are met proactively rather than reactively [5] Group 3: Economic Development and Collective Prosperity - Strengthening collective village economies is identified as essential for rural revitalization, with successful projects leading to increased income for villagers [6] - Various initiatives, such as the establishment of a closed agricultural market and the development of local brands, have significantly boosted collective economic income, demonstrating the effectiveness of the "Six You" approach [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - shares are oscillating narrowly at a high level, with hotspots rapidly rotating. The index is approaching the predicted neutral point, and market sentiment is exuberant [14]. - The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the downward - revised Q1 GDP and increased economic downward pressure [18]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term, and copper prices may be supported by macro factors and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [4][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Collins believes it may be too early to cut interest rates in July, and the baseline outlook is to resume rate cuts later this year. Gold lacks upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction [10][11]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should be aware of correction risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued a plan to improve the social credit repair system, and the third batch of consumer trade - in funds will be released in July [13][14]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump hopes Congress can pass the tax reform bill before July 4. The US Q1 GDP was downward - revised, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [16][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, but the Q1 GDP was downward - revised. Market sentiment is high, but there are still concerns about economic data and tariff negotiations [20][21]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase the high as the US stock market has factored in a lot of optimistic expectations [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentine soybean sales may stagnate in July due to the expiration of the tax - cut policy. US soybean export sales are better than expected. Domestic soybean meal prices have fallen, and trading volume is average [24][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. Focus on US soybean growing area weather and Sino - US relations [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.83% from June 1 - 25. The oil market is oscillating and waiting for new data [27]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to continue oscillating in the short - term. It is recommended to operate within the range and not to short when the bottom support is strong [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazilian port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from August 1, which may support sugar prices [28][31]. - Investment advice: The external sugar market is weakly consolidating. Zhengzhou sugar may have limited rebound space and may fall after the July contract is delivered [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly this week, but rebar inventory decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term [33][34]. - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy when the price rebounds [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn and corn starch consumption in starch sugar products increased slightly this week. The opening rate of starch enterprises decreased slightly, and inventory decreased steadily. The CS09 - C09 spread decreased [36]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see as the factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Spot prices are stable with an upward trend, while futures are weak [37][39]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. Consider shorting the November and January contracts when the new - crop situation is clearer [39]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The metal market shows a cautiously bullish sentiment. India plans to take measures to deal with copper supply risks. Macro factors support copper prices in the short - term, and inventory changes should be focused on [39][43]. - Investment advice: Copper prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term. Adopt a bullish strategy. Wait patiently for arbitrage opportunities [43]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi plans to build a 1.4GW BC component factory in Indonesia. The polysilicon market is still under pressure, with falling prices and limited production cuts [44][45]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to focus on the PS08 - 09 positive spread opportunity due to high unilateral investment risks [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased this week. There are rumors of production cuts and restarts. The price increase may face resistance [47][48]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price of industrial silicon rebounds [48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is in a contango. A zinc smelter in Peru went on strike, and domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Zinc prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term but face an oversupply situation in the medium - term [49][51]. - Investment advice: Reduce or stop losses on previous short positions in the short - term. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment fades. Consider positive spread arbitrage [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng's first shipment of lithium concentrate from Mali set sail. The low price attracts some pre - season stocking, and there may be a short - term price rebound [53][54]. - Investment advice: Avoid short positions. Consider the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The nickel market is facing an oversupply situation, and nickel prices may be affected by the price of nickel ore [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term up - and - down profit - loss ratios of nickel prices are not good. Consider short - selling when the premium of nickel ore drops significantly [56]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China decreased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Wait and see the demand after the increase in the release of civil LPG in East China [59]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration issued 215 million green certificates in May. The demand for green certificates is increasing, and they are evolving into financial assets [60]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [61]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. Supply is stable, and demand is average. The downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, but the downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and the demand from downstream paper mills was weak [63][64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak [64]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly adjusted, and the futures price oscillated. The trading volume was low [65]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals change little in the short - term [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased slightly. The domestic supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, but the export quota may affect the market [67][69]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to potential policy changes regarding export quotas [69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate of PTA was slightly adjusted. Supply decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase in the medium - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PTA price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable with some slight decreases. The industry plans to cut production in July, which may relieve supply pressure [73][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin of bottle chips when the price is low [76].

Group 1 - The second season of the Xinhui Chenpi auction will take place on June 28, featuring 15 rare items from different regions and years [2][6] - The auction will be held at the Hongda Tang Chenpi Manor, with all items undergoing strict supervision from the Guangzhou Property Exchange [7] - The first auction in March saw 12 high-quality Xinhui Chenpi sold for a total of 388,000 yuan, indicating strong market interest [5] Group 2 - The auction includes top-tier collectibles such as a 100g 1995 Xinhui Meijiang Circle Branch Da Hong Chenpi, which is highly sought after [3][54] - The starting price for the 1995 Chenpi is set at 28,888 yuan for 100 grams, with a market reference price of 68,888 yuan [59] - Other items include a 2012 East Jia Village Chenpi starting at 2,698 yuan per jin, with a market reference price of 6,388 yuan [20] Group 3 - The Xinhui Chenpi is referred to as "soft gold" in the collectibles market, with its medicinal value increasing geometrically with age [4] - The auction features a variety of Chenpi, including those from the renowned Meijiang area, which has seen a decline in planting area due to urbanization, making these items increasingly rare [57] - The auction aims to meet market demand and showcase the unique qualities of Xinhui Chenpi, which is known for its rich aroma and health benefits [6][41]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market sentiment is positive, with significant increases in commodity prices, particularly coking coal and polysilicon, both rising over 3% [1] - Agricultural products are underperforming, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal experiencing declines exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices increasing over 2% due to supply constraints from production cuts and increased demand from power plants [6] - The supply reduction is attributed to mine accidents and environmental regulations, leading to a noticeable decrease in coking coal availability [6] - Despite the positive demand outlook, some analysts suggest that coking coal prices may not experience significant fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing inventory pressures [6] Group 3: Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices are under pressure, with significant declines attributed to high inventories and a softening market for soybeans [3][4] - The current supply pressure is primarily linked to raw soybean stocks, with expectations for upcoming reports on U.S. grain inventories and planting areas [5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term pressures exist, there may be potential for price recovery in the medium term as import volumes decrease [3][5] Group 4: Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are experiencing volatility, with recent declines in price but a potential for market sentiment recovery [7] - The market is facing supply increases and a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to ongoing pressure on prices [7]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月26日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅回落，布伦特08合约跌0.31%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降583.6万桶，但 成品油表需四周均值仍低于去年同期1.6%。三季度旺季全球石油累库幅度面临收窄，但OPEC+增产 压力之下宽松形势难有根本改观，伊以冲突降温后原油重回宏观与供需面主导，短期震荡偏弱运 行,关注美伊核谈进展及中东局势的反复风险。 【责金属】 随着伊以双方达成停火避险情绪消退,贵金属陷入调整。美国总统特朗普称将于下周与伊朗进行会 谈，也将与俄罗斯总统普京会谈讨论结束乌克兰战争事宜。如冲突不再出现反复，市场关注点将逐 渐转向关税谈判和美联储。鲍威尔连续两日讲话维持观望态度,认为利率的变化将取决于经济走 向。 (铜) 隔夜铜价震荡上涨，LME0-3月现货升水继续下调到100美元。鲍威尔对调降利率节奏持灵活着， 7 月降息概率升温。国内现铜升水缩窄，广东升水缩至10元。等待今日社库，倾向铜价区间上方阻力 有效,空头持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周一铝锭社库增1.5万吨，消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。伊以达成停火，霍尔木 ...

2025 年 6 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：巴西将开始 B15，利好国际豆油 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 MPOB：马来西亚毛棕榈油 7 月的参考价格为每吨 3730.48 林吉特，6 月为每吨 3926.59 林吉特，7 月 份的官方参考价被调低到触发 8.5%出口税率的区间，6 月份为 9.5%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,344 | 0.22% | 8,394 | 0.60% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,984 | 0.43% | 8,024 | 0.50% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,476 | -1.00% | 9,488 | 0.13% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,963 | -0 ...

Core Insights - The number of China-Europe freight trains passing through the Erenhot railway port has exceeded 1,500 this year, with 73 operational routes connecting over 70 hub stations in more than 10 countries [1] - The Erenhot and Manzhouli ports are crucial nodes in the China-Europe freight train network, facilitating the transportation of a wide variety of goods [1][2] - The integration of logistics platforms and cross-border e-commerce is enhancing the export capabilities of Inner Mongolia's products [4] Group 1: Operational Highlights - The Erenhot railway port has added new routes such as "Wuhu-Moscow" and "Liulihe-Minsk," expanding its connectivity [1] - Manzhouli port has seen a regular operation of return freight trains carrying bulk commodities, with 872 trains and 90,468 TEUs recorded in the first four months of the year, leading the nation in volume [1][2] - The "Bayannur-Ulanqab-Russia" freight train has operated 17 times in the first four months, with a total value of $34.93 million and a weight of approximately 16,100 tons [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The development of processing industries in Manzhouli is transforming imported resources into value-added products, with significant quantities of imported grain processed [2] - Bayannur city is a leader in agricultural exports, accounting for 70% of Inner Mongolia's total agricultural exports, with products reaching over 100 countries [2][3] - The local government has implemented policies to enhance the infrastructure and efficiency of the China-Europe freight train operations, aiming for quality upgrades and expansion [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The digital transformation of customs clearance processes at the Erenhot port has significantly improved operational efficiency, reducing overall clearance time by over 80% [5][6] - The use of intelligent regulatory equipment and real-time data sharing between customs and railway departments has enhanced the monitoring and management of freight train operations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have declined as Malaysia has lowered the reference price for crude palm oil in July, raising concerns about the market despite an increase in palm oil exports [1] Group 1 - Malaysia has adjusted the reference price for crude palm oil for July, indicating a downward trend in palm oil futures [1] - The growth in palm oil exports is not sufficient to alleviate market worries regarding future price movements [1] - The outlook for palm oil prices remains uncertain amid these developments [1]