Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand revenue growth in Q2 2025 is low single digits, with a slowdown in growth rate compared to previous quarters, primarily due to optimization of franchise stores in lower-tier cities and online discount control [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand revenue growth is low single digits, while H1 shows mid single-digit growth, a decrease from high single digits in Q1 [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing franchise channels in lower-tier cities and has appointed a new e-commerce head to enhance online sales management [2][3] - The inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 5 months, with offline discounts stable year-on-year and online discounts slightly deepening [2][3] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue in Q2 2025 shows mid single-digit growth year-on-year, with H1 growth at high single digits [3] - FILA's large goods are expected to grow at high single digits, while Fusion and children's wear are projected to grow at mid single digits [3] - Online sales for FILA are performing better than offline, with an overall inventory-to-sales ratio of about 5 months [3] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands collectively achieved revenue growth of 50%-55% in Q2 2025, with Kolon exceeding 70% and Descente projected to grow over 40% [3] - Maia Active shows over 30% revenue growth, with double-digit growth in store efficiency and rapid membership growth driven by endorsements [3] Group 4: Outlook for H2 2025 - The company maintains expectations for high single-digit growth for Anta, mid single-digit growth for FILA, and over 30% growth for other brands in 2025 [4] - Continuous optimization of offline franchise stores and expansion of new retail formats for Anta are planned [4] - Anticipated decline in interest income and increased market investment for Anta and FILA may lead to a slight decrease in operating profit margins [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 784.4 billion, 848.8 billion, and 911.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.7%, +8.2%, and +7.3% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the parent company is 134.1 billion, 149.7 billion, and 165.4 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of -14.0% (excluding one-time losses from Amer) [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are 17.7x, 15.9x, and 14.3x, with a maintained "buy" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q2 2025 operational data, showing performance in line with expectations, with a double-digit revenue growth overall, while the main brand Anta experienced low single-digit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's brand revenue growth was low single-digit, while the first half of the year showed mid single-digit growth, which was below internal expectations due to several factors [2]. - The company accelerated store upgrades in lower-tier cities, impacting short-term sales but laying a foundation for future growth [2]. - The competitive landscape during the online 618 shopping festival led to a cautious approach on discounts to maintain brand health [2]. - A new e-commerce head was appointed to enhance product differentiation across platforms, with expectations for improved sales performance in the second half of the year [2]. Group 2: New Retail Formats and Other Brands - Anta's new retail formats, such as champion stores and SV collection stores, have shown significant effectiveness, with champion stores achieving 80% higher sales efficiency than regular stores [3]. - FILA continued its steady growth with mid single-digit revenue growth in Q2, driven by a recovery in main products and strong e-commerce performance [3]. - New brands like Descente, KOLON, and Maia Active showed exceptional growth, with Descente exceeding 40% and KOLON over 70% in Q2 [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Financial Outlook - Inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around five months for Anta and FILA [4]. - The company maintained effective cost control, which is beneficial for stabilizing overall operating profit margins [4]. - The multi-brand matrix is seen as a valuable asset, with expectations for continued growth potential, maintaining a "buy" rating and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4].

Core Insights - The company reported retail sales growth for its brands in Q2 2025, with Anta brand showing low single-digit growth, FILA brand achieving mid-single-digit growth, and other brands experiencing a significant increase of 50-55% [1] - For the first half of 2025, Anta brand retail sales grew in the mid-single digits, FILA brand saw high single-digit growth, and other brands reported a growth of 60-65% [1] Group 1: Anta Brand Strategy - Anta is implementing a "store type revolution" driven by DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) strategies, focusing on precise matching of "different people, different places, different products" [1] - The store network has evolved into a matrix of five differentiated store types, including Arena, Palace, Elite, Standard, and Basic, tailored to various regions and shopping districts [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Strategy - FILA maintains a high average price strategy in the mid-to-high-end market, with a product price range of 800-1200 RMB, strategically positioned against competitors priced at 600-1000 RMB [1] - The brand is agile in adjusting its product and operational strategies, focusing on high-margin, well-designed trendy sports items while reducing inefficient SKUs [1] Group 3: Other Brands and Market Position - During the 618 shopping festival, FILA ranked first in categories such as sports shoes and sports dresses, and second in sports polo shirts and t-shirts, with the latter showing nearly 10% year-on-year growth [2] - Other brands are collaborating effectively, with Descente opening a significant store in Huamao Center to reach high-net-worth consumers, and Kelong launching a new line of minimalist and functional outdoor apparel [2] - Anta's acquisition of German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin is aimed at advancing its global strategy, particularly in the European market [2] Group 4: Financial Adjustments - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 78.6 billion RMB, 87.8 billion RMB, and 98.1 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting uncertainties in the consumer environment [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.5 billion RMB, 15.6 billion RMB, and 17.3 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 4.82 RMB/share, 5.56 RMB/share, and 6.16 RMB/share [2]

今日早参 2025 年 7 月 18 日 谢春生 电子与计算机首席研究员 座机：021-29872036 邮箱：xiechunsheng@htsc.com 谢春生 电子与计算机首席研究员 座机：021-29872036 邮箱：xiechunsheng@htsc.com 今日热点 科技/计算机：Token 推动计算 Compute 需求：非线性增长 推理和 Token 调用量之间不是线性关系：从 Agentic AI 底层来看，推理过程 的倍数项包含 Agent 数和迭代次数，多 Agent 协作和多工具调用带来 Token 消耗量倍数增长。Token 的增长与算力硬件需求之间也不是线性关系：据黄 仁勋在 3 月份的 GTC 大会中所述，"Token 量增长 10 倍，所需的算力量的增 长可能增长 100 倍"。这是因为推理过程变得更加复杂，在同样的算力条件 下，计算的时间也将增长，如果要求模型具备交互性与实时性，则需要将计 算速度提升 10 倍。我们认为，Agentic AI 将带来 Token 调用量 10 倍以上增 长，从而带来算力需求 100 倍以上提升。目前市场对于算力需求有较大的预 期差，未来算力需 ...

今年上半年，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，服务消费增势较好，消费活力不断释放，消费对经济增长 的拉动作用进一步增强。数据显示，上半年，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元，同比增长5%。上半 年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52%。 提振消费是当前宏观政策的重要着力点，是应对内外部冲击、促进高质量发展的关键举措。业内专家认 为，上半年，我国消费市场在一系列扩内需、促消费政策带动下趋于活跃，发展态势向好，这意味着下 半年消费发展是有支撑的。 "下一步，提振消费的政策还需继续加力、优化升级。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任 董希淼在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，近期，中国人民银行等部门出台金融支持提振消费等政策 措施，引导更多金融资源助力提振和扩大消费，预计下一阶段居民消费意愿和能力将进一步提高，巩固 消费市场回升向好的态势。 "扫货"账单里的换挡提速 上半年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5%，其中，二季度增长5.4%，比一季度加快0.8个百分点，逐季 提升，稳稳撑起经济增长的"半壁江山"。 如果把消费拆开来看，会发现一条清晰的升级曲线——服务消费"跑得"比商品消费更快。上半年，服务 零售额同比增长5 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|如何定位"市场化反内卷"？》 1、我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧 重于成本调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的 供给格局配合，我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个 方面讨论哪些行业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和 存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，以上述三个指标是否发 生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出 清的行业。2、我们筛选出两类受益方向：第一类走困境反转逻辑，行业 "反内卷"需求较为迫切，处在周期底部，出清拐点初步显现且具有较好 的出清弹性，属于"反内卷"较为核心的赛道。典型行业为光伏设备、通 用设备。以光伏为例，行业库存与开支周期向下，去库效果初显，营收增 速出现环比改善，但毛利率和现金流的改善仍未出现，困境反转后向上空 间较大。第二类走率先出清、盈利改善的右侧逻辑，内卷程度已经得到一 定改善，行业业绩能见度较高。典型为家电、化学原料等。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验有局限性；2）地缘风险 ...

消费是经济增长的"压舱石"、主动力，是更好满足人民美好生活需要的有效手段。当前，我国消费规模 持续扩大，市场活力进一步增强，消费领域新增长点加速壮大，消费对经济增长的基础性作用明显增 强。但也要看到，消费潜力释放仍存在一系列障碍问题，需引起高度重视。 以全国人大常委会委员、中国农业大学校长孙其信为团长的全国无党派人士考察团，在中央统战部的组 织协调下，围绕"完善促进消费意愿和消费能力的体制机制"的主题，赴福建开展2025年度重点考察调 研。 "这是安踏1991年创立以后推出的第八十二款产品，鞋号982。安踏超前采用当时少有的专业制图电脑设 计海报，这款鞋成为安踏的第一个爆品。"安踏集团董事局副主席丁世家向考察团介绍，将这里命名为 982中心，就是为了不忘初心、敢于创新。 创立34年来，安踏已从一家传统的民营企业转型成为具有现代化治理结构和国际竞争能力的公司，拥有 员工总数超6.5万名。 一线问需问计，把握消费动向 一个村庄，展现基层消费融合多元发展态势。在福建省福州市长乐区营前街道长安村，树葡萄香甜可 口，内河景观绚烂多彩，村里探索"农业+旅游+研学"的发展模式，打造了集特色农业、休闲文旅、夜 经济于一体的产 ...

事件 公司发布2025Q2 营运情况。李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）全平台零售流水同比增长低单位数。 点评： 机构：东北证券 跑步健身品类表现持续领先。根据公司公开交流内容，Q2 跑步及健身品类表现继续领先大盘，预计流 水同增高单位数，整体上半年跑步品类表现符合预期；篮球品类仍有承压；运动生活品类Q2 流水同比 基本持平；在户外、羽毛球等较小规模品类上保持较快增长。 研究员：刘家薇/苏浩洋 渠道门店保持稳健策略。截至6 月30 日，李宁销售点数量（不包括李宁YOUNG）较年初净减少18 个至 6099 个，较Q1 末净增加11 个；李宁YOUNG 销售点数量较年初净减少33 个至1435 个，较Q1 末净减少 18个。在波动的终端消费环境中，公司维持稳健的终端门店策略，仍以单店优化为主。Q2 李宁品牌门 店净增加，下半年进入开店旺季，全年预计门店数量有望保持稳健扩张。 终端表现延续Q1 态势。2025Q2 李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）全平台零售流水同比增长低单位数，基本 延续Q1 增长态势。分渠道来看，线下渠道流水同比下降低单位数，其中直营渠道流水同比下降中单位 数，批发渠道流水同比增长低单位数；电商渠道流水同 ...

Group 1 - The company announced Q2 2025 operational data, indicating a low single-digit year-on-year growth in main brand retail revenue, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75% [1] - In H1 2025, the main brand retail revenue achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Saucony's retail sales exceeded 30% growth [1] - The Q2 2025 retail revenue growth for Saucony was over 20%, but the growth rate slowed by approximately 40% compared to Q1 2025, attributed to adjustments in the e-commerce strategy [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [2] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and open around 30 new stores in high-end markets after acquiring full rights to Saucony and Merrell, which is expected to improve gross margins [2] - The sale of the KP brand is aimed at reducing financial drag and focusing on three main brands, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 14.286 billion, 15.558 billion, and 17.251 billion yuan respectively [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - Yili Group (600887.SH) is positioned as a leading dairy enterprise in China, focusing on high-quality transformation and platformization in the industry [7][9] - The company has shifted its development strategy from prioritizing market share to focusing on profit, enhancing its research and promotion of high-value products like adult milk powder [7][9] - Yili maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of over 70%, making it a typical dividend yield asset in the food and beverage sector [7][9] Group 2: Industry Trends - The dairy product demand is experiencing a steady recovery, with a notable increase in health awareness among consumers since 2020, leading to a pulse-like growth in demand [8] - The industry is expected to face a supply-demand turning point by Q4 2025, as overcapacity issues are anticipated to be addressed through a reduction in dairy cattle numbers [8][9] - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.61% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market size of 611.7 billion yuan by 2028 [8] Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Yili Group are estimated at 119.34 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and net profit projections of 11.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 33.8% [10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.78 yuan, with a reasonable price range of 33.8 to 35.6 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 23% to 30% from the current stock price [10]