两融市场概况 沪深两市融资融券分析 上个交易日,两市两融余额21468.0亿,环比下跌 0.04%;融资买入2611.5亿,环比下跌1.22%。 融资融券余额 融资买入额 沪市 深市 两市 08-21 已公布 21.5千亿 21.0千亿 20.0千亿 19.0千亿 18.2千亿 如资融 "VAL 2025年8月21日 个股两融洞察 上个交易日融资买入额排名前五位个股: | 名称/代码 | 融资买入 → 融资买入比 个股涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中兴通讯 | 30.5亿 13.86% | 6.56% | | 000063 | | | | 东方财富 | 24.0亿 17.53% | -1.03% | | 300059 | | | | 浪潮信息 | 22.7亿 14.66% | -0.74% | | 000977 | | | | 北方稀土 | 19.4亿 13.24% | -1.83% | | 600111 | | | | 寒武纪 | 16.5亿 13.87% | 2.27% | | 688256 | | | 免贡声明 2025-07 2025-08 2025-06 行业两融洞察 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 8 月 19 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 52.13 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 46.4 20.0 77.7 57.0 相对深圳成指 31.1 11.7 63.5 18.0 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 流通股 (百万) 2,306.78 (22%) (2%) 18% 38% 57% 77% Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：元件 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 联系人：李圣宣 shengxuan.li@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123050020 鹏鼎控股 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,306.78 | | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a structural revaluation process driven by national governance capabilities and supportive policies, with a focus on low valuation and high prosperity sectors such as technology and energy independence [3][17]. Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683 points, marking a nearly four-year high, with total market turnover returning to 2 trillion yuan, indicating a "eight consecutive days of gains" [2][7]. - On August 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to 3696.77 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.60% and 2.61%, respectively, with market turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the third consecutive trading day [3][7]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology manufacturing, new energy materials, and hard technology innovation chains, reflecting a clear market logic driven by industrial policy and capital expectations [3][7]. - The market is witnessing a rotation of themes, with strong performance in sectors like military restructuring and technology-related themes such as liquid cooling servers and humanoid robots [7][14]. Capital Flow - Positive capital flow is noted, with significant net inflows into high-elasticity sectors such as brokerage, auto parts, and components, while high-dividend sectors like telecommunications are preferred by conservative investors [8][12]. - The People's Bank of China reported a rare negative growth in credit for July, with new RMB loans at -50 billion yuan, indicating a shift in capital dynamics [9][10]. Policy Impact - Recent policy measures, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans, aim to stimulate market confidence and direct funds into consumption sectors [11][12]. - The central bank's liquidity injection through reverse repos reflects ongoing efforts to support the market [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the interest subsidy policies lead to a recovery in actual consumption, corporate earnings may enter a recovery phase, potentially benefiting the A-share market [17]. - The current market sentiment is seen as an extension of the previous rally, with a focus on structural opportunities and value differentiation amid ongoing challenges [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant surge since July, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3700-point barrier, driven by strong sector performances and positive market sentiment [2][3][4]. Market Performance - As of August 15, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77 points, with a 0.83% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.60% and 2.61%, respectively [2][3]. - Since July, the overall A-share market has shown steady progress, with a notable performance in sectors such as components, communication equipment, and medical services, each exceeding a 25% increase [2][4]. Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors since July include: - Components: 30.67% - Communication Equipment: 28.26% - Medical Services: 25.14% [4][5]. - Notable stocks in these sectors include: - Shenghong Technology, with a stock price increase of nearly 70% since July [6]. - New Yisheng, with an increase of over 80% in the same period [6]. Earnings Reports Impact - The release of mid-year earnings reports has positively influenced stock prices, with companies like Industrial Fulian and Shentong Technology seeing significant stock price increases due to strong earnings [9]. - Industrial Fulian reported a 35.58% increase in revenue and a 38.61% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [9]. Future Investment Directions - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with long-term potential, including new consumption, new pharmaceuticals, and hard technology, driven by economic transformation and industrial upgrades in China [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 16.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.233 billion yuan, up 57.22% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is the largest FPC manufacturer globally, holding over 30% market share, and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-related products and new categories such as foldable screens and AI glasses [4][5] - The company is expanding its high-end HDI and SLP product lines into the AI server and optical module markets, with ongoing collaborations with well-known server manufacturers and CSPs [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.07%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.49%, up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, expecting net profits of 4.514 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.502 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [3][6] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 26.9, 22.0, and 18.7 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company has experienced a turnaround in performance expectations, entering a phase of growth across multiple sectors, particularly in AI and automotive electronics [6][7] - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity, which is expected to drive long-term growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.565 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.43%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 196 million yuan, down 11.96% year-over-year [6] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.401 billion yuan, up 19.65% year-over-year and 20.33% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit for Q2 was 84 million yuan, down 24.61% year-over-year and 25.56% quarter-over-quarter [6] - The gross margin for Q2 was 20.91%, a decrease of 2.95 percentage points year-over-year, and the net margin was 5.66%, down 3.81 percentage points year-over-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 525 million, 745 million, and 987 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 2.35, and 3.11 yuan [6][10] - The company expects a significant revenue increase in the coming years, with projected revenues of 5.552 billion, 7.199 billion, and 9.071 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] Business Development - The company is diversifying its product structure, with significant growth in data center and server revenues, as well as automotive electronics [7] - The company has established stable partnerships with several well-known Tier 1 manufacturers in the automotive electronics sector [7] Capacity Expansion - The company is in the process of ramping up production capacity at its Thailand factory, which focuses on high-end PCB products for AI servers and automotive electronics [8] - A recent announcement indicated plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1 billion yuan for high-end PCB projects, with a total planned investment of 1.82 billion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities that are immune to "involution," highlighting three high-barrier sectors: monopolistic industries like public utilities and rare earths, industries with exclusive products and global competitiveness in hard technology, and sectors where AI accelerates the replacement of repetitive tasks [1][2][3]. Group 1: High-Barrier Industries - Monopolistic barrier assets, such as public utilities (electricity, water) and strategic rare resources (like rare earths), effectively avoid intense market competition and provide stable cash flow and pricing power, making them excellent defensive investments [2][11]. - Global competitive assets are characterized by technological innovation and product exclusivity, allowing companies to successfully expand into overseas markets and create unique advantages, primarily found in high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors [2][11]. - AI-driven efficiency revolution assets are transforming traditional industries by replacing repetitive labor, significantly enhancing productivity and accelerating the "involution" process in certain sectors [3][19]. Group 2: Market Phases of "Involution" - The "involution" market is currently transitioning from the first phase (involution 1.0) to the second phase (involution 2.0), where the focus shifts from broad industry recovery to individual stock selection based on self-discipline and competitive differentiation [4][6]. - The first phase is characterized by supply-side contraction leading to a supply-demand gap, benefiting upstream resource sectors like steel and coal [4][6]. - The second phase sees a focus on high-quality companies that can achieve market share and profitability recovery through strict production discipline, while smaller firms must innovate and create unique competitive advantages [4][6]. Group 3: Long-Term Investment Strategy - The long-term strategy emphasizes investing in industries with natural high barriers to entry, which can provide stable and higher returns compared to short-term "involution" opportunities [11][13]. - Historical data indicates that monopolistic industries, such as public utilities and strategic rare resources, have shown resilience and sustained performance compared to emerging industries that have faced downturns [11][13]. - The report suggests prioritizing sectors with high entry barriers, such as public utilities and strategic resources, which offer stable cash flows and are less affected by economic cycles [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a 24.75% year-over-year revenue growth to 16.375 billion and a 57.22% increase in net profit to 1.233 billion in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its capital expenditure (CAPEX) to over 7 billion for 2025-2026, indicating strong confidence in future growth, particularly in high-end PCB markets [3] - The company is actively increasing its market share in various sectors, including AI computing and automotive applications, with notable revenue growth in these areas [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 16.375 billion (YoY +24.75%) and net profit of 1.233 billion (YoY +57.22%), with a gross margin of 19.07% and a net margin of 7.49% [1] - For 2Q25, revenue reached 8.288 billion (YoY +28.71%, QoQ +2.49%) and net profit was 745 million (YoY +159.55%, QoQ +52.59%) [1] Product Segments - Revenue from communication boards was 10.268 billion (YoY +17.62%) with a gross margin of 15.98%, while consumer electronics and computer boards generated 5.174 billion (YoY +31.63%) with a gross margin of 24.52% [2] - The company is a key supplier for foldable devices and wearable technology, leveraging advanced FPC module technology [2] CAPEX and Future Outlook - The company has revised its CAPEX guidance upwards, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Taiwan progressing well, and plans to increase high-end PCB production capacity [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, expecting net profits of 4.2 billion, 5.8 billion, and 7.3 billion respectively, with growth rates of 24%, 38%, and 26% [3]

Core Insights - The current "anti-involution" market trend represents a phase of reversal from difficulties, characterized by a clear four-stage evolution, alternating between systematic market opportunities (β) and individual stock excess returns (α) [3][5] - Investors are encouraged to focus on high-barrier assets that are naturally immune to "involution," identifying three core long-term investment themes: monopolistic barrier assets, globally competitive assets, and AI-enabled efficiency revolution assets [3][4][19] Group 1: Four Stages of "Anti-Involution" Market - The first stage (Anti-Involution 1.0) is driven by supply-side contraction expectations, benefiting upstream resource sectors like steel and coal, leading to a typical β opportunity [5][6] - The second stage (Anti-Involution 2.0) sees a shift in focus from industry-wide gains to individual stock differentiation, where leading firms gain market share through strict production discipline, creating α opportunities [6][7] - The third stage (Anti-Involution 3.0) involves a fundamental improvement in supply-demand relationships, leading to a recovery in overall corporate profits and product prices, marking a new round of market upturn [7][8] - The fourth stage (Anti-Involution 4.0) features the emergence of new core assets in a stabilized competitive landscape, driven by technological innovations and global expansion [8][9] Group 2: Current Market Positioning - The market is transitioning from Anti-Involution 1.0 to 2.0, necessitating a dual focus on both β opportunities in specific sectors and the identification of high-quality stocks with strong α characteristics [8][13] - The current "anti-involution" differs fundamentally from the 2015 policy-driven "three reductions" approach, relying more on market-driven self-discipline rather than administrative mandates [8][13] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in industries with natural high barriers to entry, such as public utilities and strategic rare resources, which provide stable cash flows and are less affected by economic cycles [19][27] - The three core elements supporting high-barrier industries include licensing barriers, resource barriers, and network effect barriers, which create exclusive pricing power and stable cash flows [27][28] - Companies that successfully "go global" and break overseas monopolies are identified as key players in the "anti-involution" narrative, particularly in high-tech sectors [29][30] Group 4: AI Empowerment - The rise of AI technology is seen as a transformative force accelerating the "anti-involution" process by enhancing productivity and driving market clearing [33][35] - Industries that can effectively leverage AI to reduce costs and reshape competitive dynamics are positioned to thrive in the evolving market landscape [35][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is accelerating capacity expansion and diversifying its product lines to cover various AI application scenarios [1] - The company achieved significant revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 16.375 billion yuan, up 24.75% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.233 billion yuan, up 57.22% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with AI business becoming a new growth engine, particularly in communication boards and AI-related products [8] - The company plans to increase capital expenditure to over 30 billion New Taiwan dollars in the next two years, with nearly 50% allocated to expanding high-end HDI and HLC capacity [8] Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 41.365 billion yuan, 47.523 billion yuan, and 54.452 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.503 billion yuan, 5.519 billion yuan, and 6.776 billion yuan [7][8] - The company reported a gross margin of 20.28% in Q2 2025, an increase of 4.80 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.94 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.38 yuan in 2026 and 2.92 yuan in 2027 [7][8] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 56.90 yuan on August 13, 2025, with a market performance of -23% over the last 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [2][4]