Group 1: Market Key Indicators - As of the end of Q3 2025, the stock of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen reached 8.879 million square meters, with a vacancy rate of 29.0% and an average rent of RMB 153.4 per square meter per month [2][3][9] - In 2025, Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.1%, the tertiary industry by 6.1%, CPI by 0.1%, and real estate development investment to decline by 15.1% [2] Group 2: Supply - Side Analysis - New supply in Q3 2025 was concentrated in the Qianhai area, which promoted the business atmosphere but also intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, raising the vacancy rate by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The average rent dropped by 4.2% quarter - on - quarter and 11.2% year - on - year, and the net absorption reached 92,000 square meters, a quarterly high since 2024 [3] - Owners are exploring diversified ways to attract customers, such as transforming the cooperation model with office building operators from a traditional rental relationship to a partnership [3] Group 3: Demand - Side Analysis - In the first three quarters, leasing demand was mainly concentrated in TMT, finance, professional services, and retail trade. In Q3, some niche technology companies entered the market [4] - Professional services and finance sectors saw a recovery in leasing demand in Q3, and companies in hotel, circular economy, new consumption, and logistics sectors also had large - area leasing transactions [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The large amount of upcoming supply will increase the pressure on the Grade A office building market, which may drive more innovative exploration in office building operation [5] Group 5: Regional Market Data - In different regions of Shenzhen, Luohu has a vacancy rate of 36.5%, Futian 20.7%, Nanshan 28.7%, Qianhai 42.4%, and Bao'an 26.0% as of 2025 [9] - The average rent in different regions ranges from RMB 124.04 in Qianhai to RMB 169.14 in Futian [9] Group 6: Transaction and Construction Information - In Q3 2025, major leasing transactions included Point Cat Technology leasing 9,800 square meters in China State - owned Capital Venture Capital Building in Qianhai [10] - Major ongoing construction projects include China Merchants Bank Global Headquarters Building in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base, expected to be delivered in 2026 [11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the demand for office leasing is expected to shift further towards the technology sector, driven by the latest "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on enhancing new productivity and the expansion of AI and new energy sectors [1][5]. Demand Analysis - According to data from DTZ, the demand for Grade A office space in first-tier cities remains highly concentrated, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), professional services, and finance as the dominant sectors [2]. - In Beijing, the TMT sector accounts for 41.9% of the leasing market, while Shanghai and Guangzhou focus more on professional services, with TMT and finance also being significant [2]. - Shenzhen exhibits a diversified industry structure, with TMT, accommodation and catering, finance, professional services, and energy sectors each exceeding 10% of the market [2]. Leasing Activity - A summary of leasing activities from September to October 2025 shows significant entries from technology-related companies, including Nova Fusion and Salted Fish Technology in Shanghai [3][4]. - The financial sector is also active, with notable entries in Guangzhou's Tian De Plaza, which houses over 200 financial institutions, creating a financial ecosystem [4]. Investment Trends - In Q3 2025, the total transaction value in Shanghai's investment market rose by 78.1% to 14.97 billion, with office assets leading in both transaction value and number [6]. - The report highlights that core location, resilient industries, and quality management of office assets will continue to be crucial for capital investment [6]. Transaction Insights - The report details several significant transactions, including the sale of a 50% stake in Yuexiu Financial Tower for 1.717 billion, allowing the seller to retain control while optimizing financial structure [8]. - A notable transaction involved the acquisition of Shanghai's Bo Hua Plaza for over 10 billion, showcasing the scarcity of core assets [9]. Market Dynamics - The investment approach is shifting towards collaborative fund models, allowing multiple parties to share ownership and operational responsibilities, enhancing asset value collectively [9]. - The report notes a decline in the number and total value of transactions in the mainland commercial property market, indicating a cautious approach towards non-core city assets [10]. Asset Transformation - The transaction of the Sunshine City Headquarters Tower exemplifies the trend of repurposing commercial assets, with plans to convert it into a mixed-use development, aligning with current market demands [11]. - Shanghai's recent policies encourage the integration of various functions within commercial buildings, reflecting a shift from high-end exclusivity to more versatile uses [12][13].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [2][9]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [3]. - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office spaces improved to 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - Despite high vacancy rates, rental prices have dropped significantly, with current office rents down 43% compared to Q1 and Q2 2019, prompting companies to consider expansion or relocation [3]. - In Central, the net absorption reached 138,000 square feet, the highest quarterly figure in a decade, with a slight rental decline of 0.3%, outperforming the overall market [6][7]. Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is driven by a booming IPO market and the growth of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies leading the demand for office space [4][5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, which has bolstered confidence in the market [5]. Emerging Trends - New players, particularly mainland Chinese companies, are becoming significant contributors to the Hong Kong office market, as evidenced by Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property for HKD 7.2 billion [9][10]. - The demand for Grade A office spaces from mainland enterprises is notably strong, especially in core areas like Central [10]. Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the overall market recovery is still uncertain, with a projected decrease in new office supply in 2026, which may lead to a gradual increase in occupancy rates by 2027-2028 [10][11]. - The current rental yield for Hong Kong offices is around 4%, which is less attractive compared to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.08%, making it less appealing for risk-averse investors [11]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is navigating a complex landscape of recovery, characterized by a dichotomy between new economic players and traditional investors, each making strategic decisions based on their unique perspectives [12].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui Holdings are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [1][2][8] Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [2] - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [2] - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved to 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [2] Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is primarily driven by a booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [3][7] - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising a total of HKD 189.3 billion, contributing to increased confidence in the market [3] Rental Trends - Core areas like Central are seeing strong demand, with a net absorption of 138,000 square feet in Q3, the highest in a decade, while vacancy rates are declining [5][6] - In contrast, non-core areas like Kowloon East have a vacancy rate of 23.7%, indicating a stark divide in market performance [6] New Entrants - Mainland companies are emerging as significant players in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property in Causeway Bay being a notable example [8] - Demand from mainland clients for Grade A offices, particularly in core areas, is on the rise, with these companies accounting for a substantial portion of the client base in flexible office spaces [8] Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the overall recovery of the market is still uncertain, with a projected decrease in new supply leading to a gradual increase in occupancy rates by 2027-2028 [9] - The current rental yield for Hong Kong offices is around 4%, which is less attractive compared to U.S. Treasury yields, limiting investor interest [9][10] - The market faces an oversupply issue, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a significant amount of new space needing time to be absorbed [10]

Core Insights - The Nanjing office market is currently in a supply-demand adjustment phase, with a clear tenant-oriented trend emerging [1][3] - High-quality office space supply continues to increase, leading to a rise in vacancy rates and challenges in rental prices [1][3] - The retail market in Nanjing is experiencing growth, driven by increased consumer spending and new retail developments [5][9] Office Market Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total stock of high-quality office projects in Nanjing reached 5.55 million square meters, with a vacancy rate rising to 28.8% [1][3] - The average rental price for office space in Nanjing was approximately 71.7 RMB per square meter per month, with key areas averaging 89.4 RMB per square meter per month [1][3] - The absorption rate for typical projects in Q3 was 52,900 square meters, a 6% decrease from the previous quarter but an 18% increase year-on-year [3] Retail Market Summary - Nanjing's retail market saw a total social retail sales of 438.42 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5] - The opening of Nanjing Jinling Tiandi added 130,000 square meters of new supply to the market, with the total stock of mid-to-high-end shopping centers reaching 7.73 million square meters, a 1.7% increase [5] - The average first-floor rental price in mid-to-high-end shopping centers was recorded at 570.6 RMB per month per square meter, a 0.4% decrease [8] Future Outlook - Three new high-quality office projects are expected to be launched in Q4 2025, adding a total of 220,000 square meters of supply [3] - The retail market is anticipated to see approximately 3.78 million square meters of quality retail properties entering the market over the next three years, intensifying competition [8][9] - Nanjing is becoming a preferred location for domestic and international brands, with a focus on new business models and brand incubation [9]

Core Insights - The Beijing Grade A office leasing market is expected to show a pattern of "partial recovery and overall pressure" in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of high-tech tenants, while landlords will continue to adopt a "price-for-volume" strategy to accelerate leasing [1] - Tenants are becoming more proactive in their leasing decisions, focusing on cost optimization and incorporating green attributes into their decision-making processes [2] - The volume of bulk transactions in the Beijing office market is anticipated to increase in Q4 2025, with sellers likely to offer price concessions to facilitate sales [3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The leasing market is expected to see increased activity from high-tech tenants, but overall market stability remains uncertain due to economic recovery pace and upcoming supply in 2026 [1] - Landlords are likely to enhance flexibility in leasing terms to attract quality tenants amid ongoing market challenges [1] Group 2: Tenant Behavior - Tenants are shifting from passive acceptance of existing conditions to actively seeking cost-effective office spaces, potentially leading to early lease terminations and relocations [2] - The emphasis on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) compliance is rising, with tenants prioritizing green building certifications and renewable energy supply in their leasing decisions [2] Group 3: Bulk Transaction Market - The bulk transaction market is expected to see improved activity as sellers increase price concessions, particularly for quality properties in established business districts [3] - There is a notable price negotiation gap between buyers' expectations and sellers' bottom lines, which may hinder transaction volumes [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Tenants - Tenants are advised to take advantage of year-end rental discounts and initiate discussions with landlords to secure preferred spaces [4] - In terms of green initiatives, tenants should prioritize certified green buildings and consider collaborating with landlords for green upgrades [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Landlords - Landlords should develop customized leasing strategies based on tenant characteristics to enhance leasing efficiency [5] - Offering attractive terms for high-value tenants can help build a sustainable leasing ecosystem [5] Group 6: Recommendations for Buyers and Sellers - Buyers are encouraged to leverage the year-end asset allocation window and adopt competitive bidding strategies [6] - Sellers should focus on realistic pricing and tailored incentives to meet the diverse needs of different buyer types [6] Group 7: Market Performance Data - The average effective rent for Grade A offices in Beijing decreased by 5.0% to 220 RMB per square meter per month, with a vacancy rate of 17.6% [9] - The bulk transaction market saw a significant decline in total transaction value, dropping 84% to 750 million RMB, indicating cautious buyer sentiment [16]

Core Insights - The overall Grade A office leasing market in Hong Kong recorded a positive net absorption of 143,000 square feet in September, marking the longest streak of positive net absorption since May 2022 with six consecutive months of growth [1] Market Demand - The demand for leasing is primarily driven by banks and multinational corporations, with an acceleration in negotiations for office space consolidation and upgrades [1] - The active performance of the Hong Kong stock market has further solidified confidence in its status as an international financial center, prompting financial institutions to implement real estate plans for office spaces [1] Vacancy Rates - As of the end of September, the overall office vacancy rate slightly decreased to 13.4%, with improvements seen across most sub-markets [1] - The vacancy rates in Central and Wan Chai/Causeway Bay improved to 11% and 12% respectively, while Tsim Sha Tsui saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [1] Rental Trends - Overall rents in September experienced a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1%, although some premium office buildings in core locations are showing signs of rental stabilization [1] - Rents in Wan Chai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui both recorded a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, while rents in Central remained stable [1]

Core Insights - The report by CBRE highlights the recovery and analysis of Hong Kong's office market from 2022 to 2025, predicting a gradual increase in office demand until 2028 due to economic improvement and various driving factors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends (2022-2025) - Total leasing area increased by 1.1 million square feet, driven by some industries expanding office space despite cost-saving measures [2][3]. - The vacancy rate has risen to over 17%, nearly double the pre-pandemic level, due to significant supply increases [2][3]. - New Grade A office supply reached 7 million square feet, 2.3 times the previous period, marking the highest level of new supply in 15 years [2][3]. - 55% of the new supply remains unleased, contributing to 3.9 million square feet of vacant space [2][3]. - Rental rates have decreased by 17% during this period, a slower decline compared to the 27% drop observed in the previous study period [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Trends - New trends in the Grade A office market include a recovery in total leasing area, with significant growth from public and educational sectors, as well as non-traditional banking and financial companies [3]. - There is a shift in corporate office footprints, with local companies expanding while multinational firms are downsizing [3]. - The trend of decentralization from Central has slowed, with a continuous decline in space involved over two research periods [3]. - Increased demand for green offices, with owners actively renovating to meet environmental standards [3]. - The shared office space sector is contracting, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook (2026-2028) - CBRE expresses confidence in Hong Kong's economic prospects, with improvements in global rankings enhancing market confidence and attracting global enterprises [4][5]. - Office demand is expected to gradually recover, driven by the resurgence of traditional services, increased presence of mainland Chinese companies, and emerging new economy sectors [4][5]. - The market will see a rethinking of workplace strategies to adapt to the new normal, with varying competitive dynamics across different regions [4][5]. - Tsim Sha Tsui West is anticipated to emerge as a strategic alternative hub for financial companies [4][5]. - Owners are adopting flexible leasing strategies, including green leases and shared facilities, to meet evolving tenant demands [5].

投资方面，受房地产投资持续下行影响，1-9月固定资产投资(不含农户)同比由1-8月的微增0.5%转为下降 0.5%。 出口整体延续平稳增长态势，1-9月我国出口总额(以人民币计价)同比增长7.1%，增速较1-8月上升0.2个百分 点。 服务业方面，企业扩张动力仍显不足。2025年前三季度，服务业增加值同比增长5.4%，增速较上半年下降0.1 个百分点。2025年前九个月，服务业商务活动指数持续维持在50%-50.5%的区间，其中9月指数值为50.1%，较 8月下降0.4个百分点，反映出当前服务业企业扩张意愿偏弱。 政策层面整体保持积极取向。7月30日，中央政治局会议召开，会议强调"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要 落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。……用好各项结构性货币政策工 具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。"同时，会议强调"要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以 科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合 发展。……。坚持'两个毫不动摇'，激发各类经营主体活力。" 整体来看，当前宏观经济企稳回升的基础仍需巩固，重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong has recently recorded its largest office building sale in years, with the sale of the top 13 floors of One Island East to Alibaba-W (09988) and Ant Group for HKD 7.2 billion [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The transaction is expected to stabilize the capitalization rate of Hong Kong's office buildings and reduce commercial real estate risks to some extent [1] - The estimated monthly rent for the property is assumed to be HKD 65 per square foot, with a capitalization rate of 3.3%, comparable to the average rates in Wanchai or Causeway Bay [1] Group 2: Company Implications - The sale will likely impact Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997), as Alibaba's lease at Times Square is set to expire in 2028, suggesting a potential relocation [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that more leading companies from mainland China may be interested in purchasing office properties in Hong Kong for their regional or non-mainland headquarters [1] Group 3: Beneficiaries - The stabilization of Hong Kong's office capitalization rates is expected to benefit major office leasing developers such as Hongkong Land and Swire Properties (01972) [1]