策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price has experienced a slight decline, and the company is actively engaged in a share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value and reduce registered capital [1][2]. Company Announcements - As of June 30, 2025, Hualu Hengsheng has repurchased a total of 2.3 million shares, representing 0.11% of the company's total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 48.1 million yuan, at a price range of 20.75 yuan to 21.08 yuan per share [1][3]. - The share repurchase plan was first announced on April 18, 2025, proposed by the chairman, with an implementation period from April 30, 2025, to April 29, 2026, and an expected repurchase amount between 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan [1]. - Following the implementation of the 2024 annual profit distribution plan, the maximum repurchase price has been adjusted from 32.38 yuan per share to 32.08 yuan per share, with the adjusted repurchase quantity estimated to be between approximately 6.23 million and 9.35 million shares, accounting for 0.29% to 0.44% of the total share capital [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21% at 3451.69 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, with a half-day trading volume of 981.32 billion yuan [1] - The pig price has been declining since Q2 2024, with an increase in both breeding sows and newborn piglets, leading to a potential negative impact on CPI if prices continue to drop, prompting government regulatory concerns [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the current market conditions suggest that the stock price of the pig sector is at a bottom level, with low risks of further decline, indicating that any minor positive news could trigger significant price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that agriculture, as a fundamental sector, is experiencing a rise in investment value due to its unique attributes such as "anti-cyclical asset premium" and "historically low valuations" [2] - The investment approach in the pig sector is shifting from a "cyclical thinking" to a focus on "quality and price," with leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty by 2025 [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, covering various segments including breeding, agricultural chemicals, and feed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 60% [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数冲高回落，港股国泰君安国际从上涨90%到下跌，发生了什么？ 2、 A股回调后能否再度上攻？ 陈果： 中国资产重估才刚刚开启！ 市场有调整要敢于加仓优质资产。 2、 A股3400点上方如何做好资产配置？机构看好两大主线机会！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1374 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股冲高回落，没能延续昨天的强势表现，有超3600只个股下跌。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/26，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.58万亿，盘面上，军工、旅游、银行等板块逆势上涨。 分析人士指出， A股有望呈现震荡向上行情。一方面，国内经济保持较强韧性；另一方面，中国资产的估值仍处于偏低水平，中国资产重估以及外资 流入仍有演绎的空间。 A股冲高回落，发生了什么？ 午后，A股港股出现明显回落，港股国泰君安国际从开盘一度涨近90%到最后下跌4%，到底发生了什么？ （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/26，不作投资推荐） 分析人士认为，可能还是地缘方向出现了一些变数，影响了市场情绪。 1、突发变数影响。 一方面，是市场流传着伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊之子——穆杰塔巴 ...

【消息面】 每日市场观察 2025 年 6 月 26 日 【今日关注】 指数三连阳，万得全 A 指数快速突破前期整理平台。成交量连续放大， 已经达到年内较高水平。量价齐升的走势，初步构建了年内少见的良性 技术形态。行业上，非银金融涨势加速，而银行板块已经呈现连续的强 势，尤其是大型国有银行的上涨，可能反映出长线资金的持续进入。消 息面上，部分公司开始披露中报业绩情况，中东局势趋于稳定，国内大 型券商子公司获得香港证监会批准，将现有交易牌照升级，以及六部门 发布金融支持扩消费 19 条，较多的利好信息提振了整体的市场情绪。 市场风险偏好整体提升，指数的技术层面初步形成对前期整理平台的突 破形态。重点关注成交量变化较为明显的计算机，军工，电子，电力设 备等板块。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：6 月 25 日，市场全天震荡拉升，沪指创年内新高，创业板 指涨近 3%。截至收盘，沪指涨 1.03%，深成指涨 1.72%，创业板指涨 3.11%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：6 月 25 日，上证净流入 315.72 亿元，深证净流入 325.54 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为证券、软件开发、电 池，主力资金流 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 市场点评 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-6-26 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 6 月 25 日创业板大涨，从行业上涨结构看，为创业板上涨贡献颇多的主要 是证券行业大涨，其原因在于港股券商强势表现的情绪传导，其背后催化 在于香港证监会批准国泰君安国际升级虚拟资产交易牌照，这为近期活跃 的稳定币主题在证券板块实现了联动，受此影响国泰君安国际港股收涨近 200%，同时也催化 A 股证券板块。 此外，国防军工大涨也提供一定贡献，原因在于近日存在较多催化剂：一 是 6 月 24 日官宣将于 9 月 3 日举行阅兵活动，即中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年纪念活动。二是上海合作组织成员国国防部长会 议参会国国防部长在青岛会见，其中包括伊朗、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯等今年 来地缘政治冲突热点地区的直接参与方，军工出口预期再起。 ⚫ 站上新中枢，积聚新力量，再做新突破 潜在流动性足、 ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

今日，A股主要指数小幅上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%报3388点，深证成指涨0.24%，创业板指涨 0.23%。 | 印刷 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3388.81 | +1.41 | +0.04 | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10175.59 | +24.16 | +0.24 | | 3000666 | 创业板指 | 2054.73 | +4.79 | +0.23 | | 000688 | 科创50 | 968.18 | +5.10 | +0.53 | | 050668 | 北证50 | 1393.44 | -9.11 | -0.65 | 全天成交1.22万亿元，较前一交易日缩量154亿元，全市场近3500股下跌。 AI眼镜板块走强，清越科技20CM涨停，则成电子涨超19%，中京电子、比依股份涨停，惠伦晶体、华 灿光电涨超6%，天邑股份涨超5%。 | 代码 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨幅� | | --- | --- | | 688496 清越科技 | 9.58 +1.60 +20 ...

今日11股封单资金超1亿元。 涨停战场： 从封单资金来看，11股封单资金超1亿元。协鑫能科居首，封单资金高达4.66亿元；创新医疗封单资金2.18亿元；南京熊猫、恒宝股份、中核科 技、融发核电等多股封单资金均超1亿元。 协鑫能科主营热电、光伏等能源类产业，公司一季度实现营收29.33亿元，同比增长21.49%；归母净利润2.54亿元，同比增长35.15%。公司今日发 布公告，上市公司、控股股东及实际控制人不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项或处于筹划阶段的重大事项，请投资者注意风险。 龙头点睛： 脑机接口掀起涨停潮 1.脑机接口 涨停个股：际华集团、麒盛科技、南京熊猫、荣泰健康、创新医疗等 协鑫能科以4.66亿元封单资金居首 据证券时报·数据宝统计，6月17日，从收盘涨停板封单量看，协鑫能科居于首位，封单量39.52万手；凤凰航运排名第二，封单量20.13万手；渤海 汽车、创新医疗、长青股份、南京熊猫（维权）、融发核电、招商南油等封单量均在15万手以上。 从连续涨停天数看，协鑫能科、金牛化工、准油股份、山东墨龙、贝肯能源等股斩获3连板；珠江钢琴、恒宝股份（维权）、苏利股份等股收获2 连板。 胜通能源：公司的经营产品 ...