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国金策略:单一产业叙事能够带来的收益已经越来越不稳定和难以把握 抓住行情的窄幅波动期布局2026年新主线
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 12:44
Group 1 - The market status indicates an increased correlation between the US and Chinese markets, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile, reflecting a new normal of "overnight alignment and intraday reversal" [2][10][13] - The US core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment, indicating a stable economic environment without significant inflationary pressures [2][10][13] - China's economic fundamentals show a combination of corporate profit bottoming out and a decline in domestic demand, which opens a window for further policy support [2][10][13] Group 2 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a divergence, with broader AI-related assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [3][24][25] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][24][25] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by demand from AI investments, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [3][24][25] Group 3 - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is emphasized as a strategic move, with a focus on increasing consumer demand supported by income growth and effective investment [4][31][32] - The government plans to enhance the second distribution of income by increasing minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies, while future efforts may focus on optimizing the first distribution through wage reforms [4][31][32] - Historical examples from Japan and the US illustrate that income growth leads to increased service and new-type consumption, suggesting that China's current income growth initiatives could similarly boost consumer spending [4][31][32] Group 4 - The current market environment, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggests a shift in investment strategy towards tangible demand and domestic policy benefits as the new focus for 2026 [5][42][43] - Recommendations include investing in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors poised for recovery in consumer spending (airlines, hotels, duty-free, food and beverages) [5][42][43] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a rebound in long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and manufacturing sectors [5][42][43]
从染缸到园区:新奥泛能网数智化产品破解高耗能行业节能痛点
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-12-19 11:15
能实现如此显著的降本,离不开泛能网以能源运行规律为底层逻辑,构建贯穿生产工艺的智能控制系 统。泛能网智控产品经理于海龙回忆,他与团队深入盛汇染织的车间开展了三次调研,摸清了企业核心 诉求不只是 "节能降耗"与"安全保障",还包括对生产连续性的要求。于是,泛能网的方案从一开始就 紧扣 "不影响生产" 的需求,以 "轻量适配" 为主,试图将改造对产能的影响降到最低。 在海上丝绸之路的重要门户汕头,纺织服装产业历经四十余年发展,已成为当地产值突破千亿元的支柱 产业。近年来,随着原料成本上涨、环保要求提升、国际环境复杂等多重压力叠加,如何通过能耗管理 与数智化升级提升竞争力,成为摆在当地近千家纺织服装企业面前的难题。 汕头市盛汇染织有限公司也是其中一员,幸运的是他们找到了盟友,来自新奥泛能网的定型机能碳智控 一体机。工厂的定型机经过智能化改造后,能耗账单变薄了,安全隐患减少了,产品的质量也更稳定 了。 对泛能网来说,帮助企业降本增效、节能减排只是起点,只有扎根车间场景,读懂企业的真实诉求,才 能让数智化技术真正融入生产工序。 在汕头,一家工厂决定把印染交给算法。 印染车间的"智能大脑" 今年6月,汕头市盛汇染织有限公 ...
十大券商一周策略:当下是布局重要窗口!跨年有望迎来新一波行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-14 14:34
对于后市,我们比市场共识更乐观:部分投资者以政策表述从"超常规"到"跨周期"解读政策不积极,但 这存在谬误,2025年超常规是相较于2024年尾部风险暴露而言。面向2026年,中央经济工作会议明 确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头",并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导",首次提出"推动投资止跌 回稳",并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存";中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政 策,继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目,隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考 虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快,政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下,2026年 初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面,保收益降仓位已经步入尾声,岁末年初的再配置与机构资 金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交,跨年攻势已经开始。 考虑到前期股指的大幅调整、总量政策加码与增量入市环境,当下是布局春季行情的重要窗口。春节前 具备产业趋势的大盘成长有望占优,受益险资"开门红"配置的大盘价值也有望反弹。看好科技/券商保 险/消费。 中信建投:跨年有望迎来新一波行情 从9月初至12月初,AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整,投资者情绪 ...
迎丰股份:12月9日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-10 11:14
每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——白金信用卡权益大缩水:贵宾厅限次、酒店减量⋯⋯银行吐槽没赚头,"羊 毛党"薅了个寂寞 (记者 张明双) 截至发稿,迎丰股份市值为37亿元。 每经AI快讯,迎丰股份(SH 605055,收盘价:8.43元)12月10日晚间发布公告称,公司第三届第十四 次董事会会议于2025年12月9日在公司会议室以现场结合通讯表决方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举第 四届董事会非独立董事候选人的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份,迎丰股份的营业收入构成为:印染占比98.72%,其他业务占比1.28%。 ...
芜湖富春染织股份有限公司关于子公司完成工商变更登记的公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-09 19:09
Core Viewpoint - Wuhu Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Anhui Fuchun Printing and Dyeing Co., Ltd., has undergone changes in name, business scope, and legal representative to meet business development needs, with the changes officially registered [1][4]. Group 1: Change Details - The subsidiary's new name is Anhui Fuchun Supply Chain Co., Ltd. [1] - The unified social credit code is 91340200MAE8U31Q06 [1]. - The company type is a limited liability company (wholly owned by a legal entity) [1]. - The legal representative is Zhao Jun [1]. - The registered capital is 20 million yuan [1]. - The establishment date is January 6, 2025 [1]. - The registered address is No. 3, Jiu Hua North Road, Longshan Street, Economic and Technological Development Zone, Wuhu City, Anhui Province [1]. - The business scope includes supply chain management services, fabric dyeing and processing, spinning processing, garment accessories manufacturing, garment manufacturing, and various textile sales [1]. Group 2: Impact on the Company - The changes in the subsidiary's name and other details are necessary for business development and management, and will not adversely affect the company's operational situation or financial status [1].
量化大势研判:继续增配低估值质量类资产
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-12-03 07:16
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]
生态环境部:非法倾倒处置固体废物专项行动取得明显成效
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-11-29 05:52
央广网北京11月29日消息(记者刘梦雅)据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道, 固体废物、重金属污染和新污染物治理是全面推进美丽中国建设的重要内容。生态环境部28日举行新闻 发布会介绍,今年6月以来,生态环境部会同有关部门启动了为期三年的全国非法倾倒处置固体废物专 项整治行动,目前已经取得了明显成效。 生态环境部固体废物与化学品司司长郭伊均介绍,截至10月底,全国共排查点位(含溶洞)113738 个,发现问题14037个,其中涉及建筑垃圾、生活垃圾、一般工业固体废物等类别的问题占比分别为 47%、27%和11%;已完成整改7433个,清理处置各类固体废物2058.2万吨。 今年是国务院办公厅印发《新污染物治理行动方案》实施收官之年,郭伊均表示,2022年以来,共 批准登记802种新化学物质,提出1365项环境风险管控措施,从源头防控新污染物产生。 郭伊均:聚焦长江、黄河等重点流域,针对全氟化合物、抗生素等重点类别,瞄准印染、涂料等重 点行业,先后启动三批27个新污染物治理试点项目,探索创新新污染物治理监管模式。 ...
百万吨“新三样”退役潮将至 监管:回收企业仍“吃不饱”
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-28 23:29
Core Insights - The upcoming retirement of new energy equipment, including waste power batteries, solar panels, and wind turbine blades, is projected to create significant waste management challenges in China by 2030, with estimates of 1.5 to 2 million tons of waste solar panels, 500,000 tons of waste wind turbine blades, and 1 million tons of waste power batteries [1][2][3] Waste Management and Recycling Capacity - China's recycling capacity for waste solar panels and wind turbine blades is approximately 2 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively, which exceeds the projected retirement volumes, leading to a situation where recycling companies often face underutilization [2][3] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has reported that there are 148 qualified companies for comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries, with a total recycling capacity of 2.5 million tons [2] Regulatory Framework and Support - Since the suspension of the "Four Machines and One Brain" fund on January 1, 2022, the Ministry of Finance has continued to allocate special funds to support compliant dismantling enterprises through a reward and subsidy mechanism [2][3] - The MEE is enhancing regulatory oversight of dismantling enterprises to prevent environmental pollution and promote resource recovery [5][8] New Pollutant Management Initiatives - The MEE is actively implementing the New Pollutant Governance Action Plan, which includes the establishment of a coordination mechanism among 15 national departments and the formation of an expert committee to address new pollutants [6][7] - As of 2022, the MEE has approved the registration of 802 new chemical substances and has proposed 1,365 environmental risk control measures to mitigate the generation of new pollutants [7][9] Future Directions - The MEE plans to strengthen environmental supervision and enhance the regulatory framework for new pollutants, including the establishment of a national monitoring network and a collaborative governance structure [8][9] - The ministry aims to improve the capacity for managing new pollutants and ensure the effective implementation of environmental risk assessments and control measures [9]
生态环境部:加快推动新污染物协同治理和环境风险管控体系建设
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-11-28 10:29
中国经济网北京11月28日讯(记者 杨秀峰)今年是国务院办公厅印发《新污染物治理行动方案》(以 下简称《方案》)实施收官之年。11月28日,生态环境部召开11月例行新闻发布会,固体废物与化学品 司司长郭伊均在会上表示,新污染物是一类化学物质的统称,通过环境风险筛查评估,发现存在风险, 但尚未纳入常规管理,或者管理措施不足。自《方案》印发以来,生态环境部会同有 新污染物防治工作积极开展。严格新化学物质环境管理登记制度,2022年以来,共批准登记802种 新化学物质,提出1365项环境风险管控措施,从源头防控新污染物产生。对14种类重点管控新污染物实 施禁止、限制、限排等环境风险管控措施;聚焦长江、黄河等重点流域,针对全氟化合物、抗生素等重 点类别,瞄准印染、涂料等重点行业,先后启动三批27个新污染物治理试点项目,探索创新新污染物治 理监管模式。 加强新污染物治理环境监管。生态环境部连续两年在全国组织开展新污染物监测试点,先后印发关 于加强重点行业涉新污染物建设项目环境影响评价工作的意见和关于做好新污染物领域执法工作的通 知,强化环境监管。 法规制度建设稳步推进。化学物质环境风险管理条例制定已列入国务院年度立法工 ...
生态环境部答21:瞄准印染、涂料等行业启动新污染物治理试点
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-28 09:01
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is making significant progress in the assessment and management of environmental risks associated with new pollutants, focusing on the prevention and control of these substances through various regulatory measures and pilot projects [2][3][4]. Group 1: New Pollutant Management Progress - Since 2022, a total of 802 new chemical substances have been registered, with 1,365 environmental risk control measures proposed to prevent the generation of new pollutants [4][5]. - The Ministry has implemented prohibitions, restrictions, and limits on 14 categories of key controlled new pollutants, particularly targeting industries such as dyeing and coatings [4][5]. - Three batches of 27 pilot projects for new pollutant management have been initiated, focusing on high-risk substances like perfluorinated compounds and antibiotics [5][6]. Group 2: Collaborative Governance and Regulatory Framework - A joint inter-ministerial coordination group has been established, comprising 15 national departments, to enhance collaboration in new pollutant governance [3][4]. - Each province has developed its own new pollutant management work plan, creating a framework where the national government coordinates, provinces take overall responsibility, and local governments implement actions [3][4]. - The Ministry is working on establishing a national monitoring network for new pollutants and enhancing risk warning systems [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - The Ministry acknowledges that the governance of new pollutants in China is still in its early stages, facing challenges such as weak foundational work, incomplete regulatory frameworks, and insufficient financial support [5][6]. - Future efforts will focus on accelerating the construction of a collaborative governance and environmental risk control system for new pollutants [5][6].