Core Viewpoint - Kpler indicates that the growth rate of U.S. crude oil supply will be slower than expected for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, with a potential peak in production as early as this year due to low WTI prices testing the breakeven point for shale oil production [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 15% since early April, currently around $58.5 per barrel, which is still below the breakeven point for many shale oil wells [1][3] - OPEC+ recently decided to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, nearly three times the planned increase, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Production Forecast Adjustments - Kpler has revised its forecast for U.S. crude oil supply growth down by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, citing weak prices potentially slowing shale oil production [3] - The company expects U.S. crude oil production to peak in 2025 and then gradually decline [3][4] Group 3: Industry Sensitivity and Response - U.S. shale oil producers are highly sensitive to price changes and are likely to reduce drilling activities as profits decline [3] - The cautious approach of the U.S. oil industry is influenced by OPEC+'s recent actions aimed at capturing market share and constraining U.S. shale oil production [3]

后续的行情无非是两种情况，比较理想的是在补缺的过程中出了一些重大消息，缺口补到一半被突然拉起，这样起码能拖到春节前夕。比较悲观的 向下彻底补缺后，又到了群众们喜闻乐见的3000点攻防战，这种可能性估计在60%以上。 很多人一看行情萎靡了，就想着趁现在还有3100多就先卖了，回头等跌到3000点以下再买回来。这个想法听着不错，但实操中总是有各种各样的 意外，比如万一行情出现拉升要不要认错回补，以及拉升多少才确定认错， 这些都是要事先做好预案的。 我以前总是鼓励大家降低交易频率，耐心持仓做时间的队友，现在想法发生了改变，真要在a股长线捂仓收益预期很差，还要搭进去大量的时间和心 力，还不如去买点债券放那里，起码省心省力。 今天a股有一个连续纪录被打破了，全天成交额只有9663亿，结束了连续72天成交上万亿的记录。 成交量体现了一个市场的生命力，之前熊市的时候日成交在5000亿左右，9月底行情起来的时候迅速攀升至2万-2.5万亿的水平，之后逐渐冷却，现在跌破 万亿，意味着又回到了昔日半死不活的区间。 今天上证指数向下回补缺口，补了一部分后遇到了反弹抵抗，昨天缺口区间是3087-3152，今天已经更新为3087-314 ...