Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the intelligent upgrade in the forklift industry is driving significant sales growth, with June sales data showing promising results [1] - The forklift industry is experiencing a shift towards automation and intelligence, with higher-priced unmanned forklifts expected to enhance profitability as their penetration rate increases [1] - The overall valuation of the industry is currently low, indicating a safety margin for potential investors [1] Group 2 - The Robot Industry ETF (159551) has risen over 1.5%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the robotics sector [1] - The ETF tracks the robotics index (H30590), which includes publicly listed companies involved in robotics manufacturing, system integration, and application [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Robot ETF Initiated Link A (020289) and Link C (020290) for exposure to the robotics sector [1]

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Group 1 - The forklift industry experienced strong sales in June, with total sales of 137,570 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Domestic sales reached 83,892 units, up 27.3%, while exports totaled 53,678 units, increasing by 17.2% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to June amounted to 739,334 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. Domestic sales grew by 9.79%, and exports increased by 15.2% [1] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards automation and intelligence, with the rise of unmanned forklifts that, despite their higher price, offer greater economic benefits. This trend is expected to enhance industry profitability as penetration rates increase [1] Group 2 - The robotics industry ETF tracks a robotics index compiled by China Securities Index Co., which selects listed companies involved in robot manufacturing, component supply, and system integration to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese robotics sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Robotics ETF Initiated Link A (020289) and Guotai CSI Robotics ETF Initiated Link C (020290) [1]

Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion, driven by technological breakthroughs and profitability improvements, leading to a reassessment of value [1] - Wan'an Robotics focuses on AI embodied robots, achieving a global market share of 11.9%, with over 57% in the Japanese market; Cloudwise Technology leads globally in the number of online service robots in hotels [1] - Geekplus has maintained its position as the global leader in warehouse AMR for six consecutive years, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas; companies with core technology, global layout, and improving profitability are expected to see value reassessment [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and BYD advancing pilot lines and sample validations, with some achieving semi-solid mass production [2] - Full solid-state small batch production is expected to begin between 2025 and 2027; the equipment segment is likely to benefit first from this industrialization process [2] - Leading equipment manufacturers are accelerating product validation and customer onboarding, with companies like Xianlead Smart and Winbond Technology providing comprehensive solutions for key processes [2] Group 3: Other Key Sectors - The forklift sector is benefiting from the rapid development of embodied intelligence, with domestic and international forklift companies, e-commerce logistics firms, and robotics companies making strides in intelligent logistics [3] - The export chain is seeing advantages due to the implementation of Vietnam's tariff policy, which enhances regional manufacturing cost differentials, allowing companies with global capacity and brand channel capabilities to improve profitability and market share [3] - The 3C equipment sector is expected to benefit in the short term from innovations in Apple's hardware products, and in the medium term from supply chain security issues driving new capacity in Southeast Asia [3]

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the forklift industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][8]. Core Insights - Forklift sales in China showed growth in May 2025, with total sales reaching 123,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. Domestic sales were 79,100 units, up 9.3%, while exports reached 44,300 units, growing by 16.6% [2]. - The trend towards electrification in the forklift industry is significant, with China's electrification rate reaching 73.6% in 2024, marking a breakthrough above 70%. Domestic brands are capitalizing on this trend, with exports of electric forklifts increasing by 25.5% [2]. - AI technology is driving demand for unmanned forklifts, with the logistics sector experiencing a shift towards automation and smart solutions. The market for unmanned forklifts is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach 24,500 units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.64% [2]. - Key companies in the forklift sector are actively investing in smart logistics, forming strategic partnerships to enhance their capabilities. Notable companies include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Zhongli Group, and Noli Group, each pursuing innovative solutions in the logistics space [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, China's forklift sales totaled 123,500 units, with domestic sales at 79,100 units and exports at 44,300 units, reflecting growth rates of 9.3% and 16.6% respectively [2]. - Cumulative sales from January to May 2025 reached 601,800 units, with domestic sales of 392,500 units and exports of 209,300 units, showing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 14.7% [2]. Electrification Trend - The global electrification rate for forklifts reached 74.5% in the first half of 2024, with China's rate at 73.6%. Domestic brands are gaining international recognition, with electric forklift exports making up 78.8% of total exports [2]. AI and Automation - The logistics sector is witnessing a shift towards automation, with unmanned forklifts utilizing navigation technology to operate 24/7. This trend addresses labor cost increases and the need for efficiency in logistics operations [2]. Company Strategies - Anhui Heli is collaborating with Huawei and major logistics firms to develop smart logistics solutions. Hangcha Group is establishing a smart logistics company in the U.S. and exploring partnerships for advanced robotics [2]. - Zhongli Group is innovating in logistics automation, while Noli Group is expanding its capabilities through acquisitions and strategic partnerships [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is rapidly developing, with equipment manufacturers expected to benefit in the early stages of industrialization. Solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety, with applications anticipated in various fields by 2030 [2][17] - The humanoid robot sector is advancing with the release of the DM series 17-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand, which enhances operational capabilities and is crucial for the commercialization of humanoid robots [3][26] - The forklift industry shows promising growth, with May sales reaching 123,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance from leading companies [4] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Equipment - Solid-state batteries are expected to transition from pilot testing to small-scale production between 2026 and 2027, with mass production anticipated by 2028-2029. The equipment value for a single GWh is projected to decrease from 500-600 million to 250 million yuan as production scales up [2][17][18] - Key equipment manufacturers include: - XianDai Intelligent, which has achieved mass production of pilot line equipment [19] - Winbond Technology, focusing on front-end equipment [19] - Mannesmann, which has completed dual-line layouts for dry and wet processes [19] Humanoid Robots - The DM series dexterous hand features advanced drive and transmission systems, enhancing its operational capabilities. The integration of sensors allows for high sensitivity and durability, crucial for the interaction between humanoid robots and their environment [3][26] - Investment recommendations in this sector include: - Zhaowei Electromechanical for dexterous hands and micro drive systems [3] - Fulei New Materials for sensors and electronic skin [3] Forklift Industry - The forklift industry saw a significant increase in sales, with domestic sales reaching 79,000 units and exports at 44,000 units in May, reflecting a strong demand for domestic manufacturers [4] - Recommended companies in this sector include: - Anhui Heli, which has strategic partnerships with major logistics companies [4] - Hangcha Group, focusing on intelligent logistics solutions [4] - Zhongli Group, investing in automation and intelligent solutions [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of accounts receivable management in the property industry, highlighting its significant impact on cash flow and potential dividend sustainability for companies [1][17] - The analysis of 30 sample companies reveals a notable increase in accounts receivable from 291.8 billion to 753.7 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates declining significantly in recent years [2][17] - The report indicates a shift towards greater business independence, with the proportion of accounts receivable from related parties decreasing from 47% to 39% over five years, while third-party receivables increased from 53% to 61% [2][18] Group 2: Financial Trends - The average collection period for accounts receivable has lengthened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024, indicating increased difficulty in collection [3][18] - The provision for bad debts has risen sharply, with the ratio of provisions to trade receivables increasing from 4% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, reflecting heightened credit risk [3][18] - The overall collection rate for the sample companies has decreased from 90% to 78% between 2019 and 2024, with companies linked to distressed parent firms experiencing even lower rates [3][18] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on property companies with strong independent business capabilities and low reliance on related transactions, as these are critical indicators of financial health [19][20] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong parent company backgrounds and effective risk management include China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [19][20] - Companies like Wanwu Cloud, Country Garden Services, and Sunac Services are noted for their manageable accounts receivable risks, while China Resources Mixc Life is recognized for its advantageous business model [19][20] Group 4: Market Strategy - The report tracks monthly strategies for small-cap and growth styles, suggesting that small-cap stocks are likely to outperform in July based on historical data and quantitative models [5][6] - The growth style is also expected to perform well in July, with a recommendation to overweight growth stocks based on the analysis of market factors [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the forklift industry [1][3]. Core Insights - Amazon has deployed over one million robots globally, establishing an efficient human-machine collaboration model, which is expected to further catalyze the development of the unmanned forklift industry [3]. - The rapid development of embodied intelligence is benefiting both domestic and international forklift companies, e-commerce logistics firms, and robotics companies, leading to a clearer trend towards unmanned forklifts and embodied handling robots [5]. - The report highlights the significant advancements made by leading companies in the unmanned logistics sector since 2025, including collaborations and technological innovations aimed at improving warehouse management and operational efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The forklift industry is experiencing a shift towards automation and intelligence, with a focus on unmanned and smart logistics solutions [5]. - Major players like Amazon are setting benchmarks in unmanned warehouse logistics, with their new robots capable of performing tasks at speeds comparable to human workers [5]. Company Developments - Domestic leaders such as Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group are accelerating their investments in unmanned forklift technology and have made significant progress in partnerships and product innovations [5]. - Anhui Heli has announced collaborations with Huawei and major logistics companies to enhance digital transformation and smart logistics [5]. - Hangcha Group has established a smart logistics company in the U.S. and is exploring innovative collaborations in the "smart robot + logistics" sector [5]. - Zhongli Group has introduced new products in smart warehousing and robotics, indicating a clear trend towards automation in the industry [5]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the industry, with Anhui Heli expected to have an EPS of 1.59 yuan per share in 2025, Hangcha Group at 1.71 yuan, and Zhongli Group at 2.30 yuan [6].

证券研究报告：机械设备|深度报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 景气度向好，无人叉车快速放量 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 1574.84 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 1803.12 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1122.98 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33% 38% 机械设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 分析师:虞洁攀 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050002 Email:yujiepan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《智能养老场景应用政策发布，长期看 好人形机器人应用场景向 C 端渗透》 - 2025.06.17 叉车行业 ...