1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory slightly decreasing overall. It's expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, with some enterprises entering the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly stop work from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term. [2] - The short - term forecast for the br2604 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the position volume is 25,458, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,150. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 13,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,370. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week; in Shanghai, it is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week. [2] - Brent crude oil is 69.04 US dollars/barrel, up 0.99; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - WTI crude oil is 64.36 US dollars/barrel, up 0.81; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,475 yuan/ton, up 125. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, up 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.12%, up 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, down 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, down 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, up 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, up 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 33,100 tons, down 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, down 550 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,030 tons, down 750 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.286 million pieces, down 15,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.839 million pieces, up 8,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points week - on - week and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points week - on - week and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. Some sample enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. The pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders have carried out promotional activities to recover funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, with new transactions decreasing and mainly focusing on picking up goods. The inventory of production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly overall. As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with a majority of sample production enterprises and trading enterprises seeing a decline in inventory. It is expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises went on holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly stop production from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term [2]. - The short - term price of the br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,810 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20; the position of the main contract is 27,608, with a week - on - week increase of 331 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 11,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, and Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 [2]. - Brent crude oil is at 68.05 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 690 US dollars per ton, with no change; WTI crude oil is at 63.55 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 [2]. - The CFR Japan price of naphtha is 602.63 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62; the CFR China intermediate price of butadiene is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.35; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 [2]. - The current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 8 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some sample enterprises stopped production for the holiday at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%; the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points [2]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. Pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders are selling at a discount to recover funds, and downstream procurement has basically ended. New transactions have decreased, and the focus is on picking up goods. Last week, the inventory of most production enterprises decreased, and the overall inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly [2]. - As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.78% [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节前成交转弱，BR震荡下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-2-9 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节前成交转弱，B R震荡下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 11 65 2 61% 73 12 3 17 3 25% 78 86 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 | | | | （1）半钢胎 ...

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pre - holiday procurement is mostly completed, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory declining slightly. It is expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term as many enterprises enter the Spring Festival holiday. The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan; the position of the main contract is 33,340, a decrease of 2,762. [2] - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 9,610 tons, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 69.46 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.13 US dollars; WTI crude oil is at 65.14 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.93 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 695 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 598.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 US dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 71.26%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 40,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 76.38%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, an increase of 532 yuan. [2] - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.44 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,650 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,780 tons, an increase of 430 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.84%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 62.44%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 46.78 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 48.78 days, an increase of 0.25 days. [2] Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons month - on - month (+4.41%) and an increase of 15.45% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]

本报讯(记者晓春)2月4日，总投资2.1亿美元的阿朗新科常州氢化丁腈橡胶工厂正式开业。至此，阿朗新 科在华投资总额近10亿美元，其中90%以上落在常州。 新工厂坐落于阿朗新科常州生产基地，设计年产能约5000吨。项目一期于2025年10月试运行成功，产能 约2500吨。生产的高性能氢化丁腈橡胶产品，可广泛应用于在极端工况下对耐久性和可靠性具有高要求 的应用场景，包括汽车零部件、石油和天然气系统、工业设备、航空航天、下一代新机动化电池等。 阿朗新科是全球卓越的合成橡胶供应商，2016年4月成立，当年8月即在中国正式运营，其总部设在常 州，生产基地位于常州和南通。随着常州氢化丁腈橡胶工厂正式成为面向中国及亚洲地区的生产枢纽， 阿朗新科已建成覆盖美洲、欧洲及亚洲的全球一体化氢化丁腈橡胶生产网络。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recent domestic butadiene rubber plants have few shutdowns, and supply continues at a high level. The unexpected increase in the price of raw material butadiene has driven up the butadiene rubber market, but the high price has led to slow follow - up of buyers. Meanwhile, butadiene rubber production is still significantly in the red, and some private enterprises in North China have reduced their production to varying degrees. [2] - Last week, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly, with limited expected short - term changes. [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and their device production schedules increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate slightly. [2] - Recently, the prices of various raw materials have been high. Under cost pressure, some enterprises began to arrange the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to the beginning of February, and the device production schedule gradually entered the final stage, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline in the short term. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,800 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 36,102, a decrease of 1,219. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 9,610 tons, an increase of 100. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,850 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 20. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 67.33 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.21 US dollars/barrel, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.37; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,270 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 695 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.07; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 0 (ten thousand tons/week), the capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points, the port inventory is 40,500 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.6%, with no change. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.38%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points, the weekly production profit is 532 yuan/ton, the weekly social inventory is 34,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, the weekly manufacturer inventory is 27,650 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 6,780 tons, an increase of 430 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.84%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 62.44%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,839 (ten thousand pieces), a decrease of 15; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,286 (ten thousand pieces), an increase of 8. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 46.78 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 48.78 days, an increase of 0.25 days. [2] Industry News - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. [2] - In January, the output of butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in January was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - As of January 28, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.74%. [2]

合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-03 整体产能利用率下行，短期轮胎企业产能利用率或将有所下滑。br2604合约短线预计在12850-13500区间 波动，短期大宗商品价格受宏观情绪影响较大，建议观望为主。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13185 | 285 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 37321 | -2381 | | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -60 | -25 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 9510 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12750 | -200 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12750 | -150 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 12850 | 东(日,元/吨) -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | ...

丁二烯、丁基橡胶市场近况更新与后市展望 20260202 摘要 全球丁二烯供应格局面临重塑，欧洲、日韩等传统产区大幅减产，而中 国产能扩张相对有限，导致全球供需错位，预计 2026 年后中国或将从 丁二烯进口国转为出口国。 乙烷裂解路线逐渐成为主流，但其丁二烯收率远低于石脑油路线，加剧 了丁二烯供应紧张局面。中国虽有新增乙烷裂解产能，但短期内难以弥 补全球减产带来的缺口。 欧洲计划在 2025-2035 年间关闭大量乙烯装置，同步减少丁二烯产能， 预计到 2030 年减少约 100 万吨。日韩亦有大规模乙烯装置关停计划， 进一步加剧全球供应紧张。 中国顺丁橡胶市场正经历转型，随着国内产能扩张和车企在东南亚布局， 中国将逐步从原料出口转向成品出口，以更低成本和更稳定供应冲击海 外市场，预计 2026 年开始净出口。 全球丁苯橡胶市场中，乳聚型（ESBR）产能较大但附加值较低，溶聚 型（SSBR）技术含量高、附加值更高。中国将在 ESBR 市场实现进口 替代，并在 SSBR 领域逐步实现自给自足。 全球主要地区对丁二烯供需平衡有何影响？ Q&A 今年以来，丁二烯及其下游产品价格走势如何？ 2026 年初至今，丁二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for butadiene rubber is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Butadiene has strong fundamental support, while cis - butadiene rubber faces profit and inventory pressures, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. With high bullish sentiment from macro and capital factors, both futures and spot prices are rising. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of reduced production at cis - butadiene plants, and trading volume among traders and downstream users is decreasing. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 12,800 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to rise further [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose significantly and then oscillated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,100 yuan/ton. The increase was mainly due to the tight supply and rising prices of overseas butadiene resources, as well as the positive commodity market atmosphere. However, downstream users showed resistance to high prices, and the production of some northern private cis - butadiene rubber plants was reduced due to losses. Overall, the domestic production volume changed little [6] 3.2 Influence Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%; the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. Some butadiene plants remained shut down, while some restarted, and the weekly production increased. For cis - butadiene rubber, the plant of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, but attention should be paid to the operating load of private plants in North China due to poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, agents made small - scale purchases at the end of the month, but the sales in the distribution channels and at the terminal were weak, inventory consumption was slow, and social inventory increased. For all - steel tires, the market remained sluggish in the second half of the month, with weak sales in distribution channels and at the terminal. Merchants focused on collecting payments, and the promotional policies of some brands were ineffective. Downstream users were cautious about purchasing and mostly postponed their procurement until after the festival [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 40,500 tons, a 17.39% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber among enterprises and traders was 34,430 tons, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week. The port inventory of butadiene increased due to the arrival of imported ships, while the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at production enterprises decreased due to production losses and reduced operating loads, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [4] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 890 yuan/ton, in East China was - 790 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 790 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU and BR was 2,970 yuan/ton; the spread between NR and BR was - 155 yuan/ton; the price ratio of BR to SC was - 0.41% [4] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was 1,918 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction was 3,512.64 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 418 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.12% [4] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group were restructured. Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine region escalated due to the US's attack on Iran. The natural gas price soared by 60% due to the cold wave, and oil and gas prices rose in the short - term. Incidents such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers also increased market panic about geopolitics [4] 3.3 Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips and follow the market and capital trends. For arbitrage, the strategy is to go long on BR and short on NR/RU [4] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties of Synthetic Rubber - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends for crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties over 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [11] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown status of butadiene plants and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2026, including production enterprises, maintenance capacity, shutdown time, and expected startup time [12][13]