Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡承压 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：震荡承压 | 供应 | • | 周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置延续停车检修，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率恢复性提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.80 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 万吨，较上周提升0.16万吨，环比+5.92%，产能利用率69.92%，环比提升3.90个百分点。下周期预计振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启，同时11月末茂名顺 | | | | 丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计有所缓解。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率涨跌互现。周期内半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率基本平稳，全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低。周期内多 | | 需求 | | 数 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,700 in the short - term. Next week, due to the slight delay of Maoming Petrochemical's maintenance until the end of the month and the gradual output after the restart of Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical's devices, the production enterprise inventory is expected to increase, while the trading enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to decline further as the number of maintenance days of the maintenance enterprises increases next week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,365, with a week - on - week decrease of 32. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,980 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $62.71 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.45; WTI crude oil is at $58.49 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.55. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $584.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $7.5. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $740 per ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $790 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.314 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219,000 pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons or 5.22% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the current period, with sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and a continuous decline in negotiation prices, the cost side has been dragging down negatively. Both the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased. Some devices will restart this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in domestic future supply, the cost side of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation of firm price - pressing by downstream terminals is difficult to change, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises' devices are operating stably this week, and it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2601 contract is expected to be between 10,000 - 10,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85; the position of the main contract is 83,698, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,988. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,350 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85. Brent crude oil is 63.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25; naphtha CFR Japan is 581.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; WTI crude oil is 59.75 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 118; the weekly social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 25,770 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,430 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 3,520 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23 days [2] Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly in October. As of November 6, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish. The significant decline in butadiene prices has deepened market pessimism, causing a sharp drop in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of spot prices and the price guidance of natural rubber [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Low - priced butadiene is the main factor affecting the market. The sharp decline in butadiene prices has led to a pessimistic market sentiment, and the futures price of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly. Although there are some changes in supply and demand, the overall market is under pressure from cost - side factors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 6, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,200 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton. The listed price of PetroChina's Southwest sales company was 10,600 yuan/ton. This week, although the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, due to the impact of the decline in butadiene prices, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber decreased by 800 yuan/ton, and the price of private resources in Shandong fell below 10,000 yuan/ton [2][5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 10.92 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 4.85%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 2.69 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of - 6.71%. Some butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some plants like Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production. In the butadiene rubber sector, the plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, and those of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical were under maintenance [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of four - season tires were mediocre. The northern market entered the off - season, while the southern market provided some support. In the snow - tire market, the channel inventory was sufficient, waiting for the rise of terminal demand. In the all - steel tire market, the transaction price remained stable. Some manufacturers recovered 1 - 2 points of previous promotional policies in November, and there was a possibility of price increases in the future [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.98 million tons, a decrease of 6.88% compared to the previous week. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 2.929 million tons, a decrease of 5.15%. Some butadiene plants resumed production, and the inventory of some suppliers increased. There were imported cargoes arriving at the port, but the short - term tradable volume was limited [2]. 3.3 Price Analysis - The prices of synthetic rubber products such as butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene from Dalian Hengli decreased by 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, a decline of 12.15% [7]. 3.4 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [8]. 3.5 Device Analysis - It details the maintenance and operation status of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the maintenance time, capacity, and future plans of each plant [9]. 3.6 Transaction Strategy - For single - side trading, there is no recommended strategy. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The market for butadiene rubber is experiencing a downward trend, with prices hitting a new low since its listing, primarily due to declining costs and macroeconomic issues affecting demand [1][2]. Price Movement - As of November 5, 2025, the price of BR9000 in the North China market was approximately 9900 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton from October 31, with a low point of around 9700 CNY/ton, marking a return to the price levels of the second quarter of 2023 [2][4]. Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is characterized by a transition from rapid growth to high-quality development, with expected demand growth slowing down. The impact of overseas tariff issues is overshadowing optimistic domestic expectations [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The butadiene market is facing increased supply, leading to a downward price trend. As of November 5, 2025, the price of butadiene in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region was 6825 CNY/ton, with a price difference from rubber prices at 2975 CNY/ton, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [4][6]. Inventory Levels - The overall supply of butadiene rubber is expected to grow more than demand, with inventory levels increasing by approximately 36% compared to the previous low price point. This high inventory level is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [6][7]. Future Expectations - The current market conditions suggest a lack of clear support for price stabilization, with expectations of further declines in raw material prices and a slowdown in downstream demand, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][7].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月09日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡，基本面仍有压力 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期震荡，基本面仍有压力 供应 需求 • 周期内扬子石化、浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，四川石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步下降。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产 量在2.65万吨，较上周下降0.04万吨，环比-1.31%，产能利用率66.02%，环比下降0.88个百分点。下周期预计扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启，且11月末茂名 顺丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计延续。（隆众资讯） 策略 • 单边：中期逢高空思路，不追空；日内或呈现资金博弈的宽幅震荡；上方压力10300-10400元/吨（跟随顺丁现货走势为主），下方支撑9500-9600元/吨 （NR-BR价差及丁二烯）； • 跨品种：nr-br价差估 ...

胎企业产能利用率小幅下降，个别企业受外因影响，存停限产安排，对整体企业产能利用率形成小幅拖拽 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短期多数企业将维持当前排产状态，检修企业排产恢复带动产能利用率提升，预计企业产能利用率小幅 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动为主。br2601合约短线预计在9950-10500区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term raw material prices are expected to remain bearish, leading to a significant price difference between private and state - owned resources. Downstream buyers may wait for price drops. Production enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline, while trade enterprise inventories may slightly increase [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Most enterprises will maintain current production schedules in the short term, and the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive a slight increase in capacity utilization. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 35,870, a decrease of 1,926. The synthetic rubber 12 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 3,010 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in various regions decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber was 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at $64.89 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18; WTI crude oil was at $61.05 per barrel, an increase of $0.07. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $740 per ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $582.38 per ton, an increase of $1.88; the price of butadiene CFR China was $850 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 7,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.06%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 52.3%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.95%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 421 yuan/ton, an increase of 625 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,200 tons, a decrease of 1,450 tons; the weekly trader inventory was 3,680 tons, a decrease of 840 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.41%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.01 days, a decrease of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.82 days, a decrease of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons month - on - month (5.52%) and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Recently, the output and capacity utilization rate have slightly declined [2]. - As of October 30, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous period (6.90%) [2].