近日，中国合成橡胶工业协会会长张孝明接受《中国化工报》记者采访时指出，"十五五"是我国迈向 2035年基本实现现代化的重要衔接阶段，也是合成橡胶行业迈向高质量发展的新阶段，在新周期，行业 发展方向清晰，其未来值得期待。 具体应该怎样做？协会秘书长李锦山提出"产业协同、结构优化、技术引领、绿色低碳、全球竞争力突 出"五大转变。他表示，协会将引导行业立足新发展阶段，以推动高质量发展为主题，加快推进由大变 强的历史性跨越，为制造强国建设提供坚实支撑。 高端应用重塑产品结构 "高端合成橡胶是航空航天等新兴战略领域不可替代的关键基础材料。"李锦山指出，"十四五"期间，我 国液体橡胶、生物基弹性体等一批高端化产品已填补国内空白，高性能合成橡胶和特种弹性体市场占比 由"十三五"末的30%提升至40%；但目前用于苛刻环境、光电通讯、高端医疗等领域的部分高端合成橡 胶产品仍然依赖进口，合成橡胶行业产能结构性饱和问题依然严峻。 对此，李锦山建议，产业结构调整需在国家政策和企业发展的同时带动下不断深化。在国家层面，一是 将高端合成橡胶列入国家战略性新兴产业重点目录，明确技术攻关目录；二是加快制定橡胶制品领域的 国家和行业标准，推动 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11395 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 99013 | -4086 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11000 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10950 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11000 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11150 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -170 62.38 | 东(日,元/吨) -80 0.31 石脑油:CFR日本( ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-23 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11175 | -55 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 103099 | -630 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 ...

湖南石化本部的SBC装置区 湖南石化是我国最早实现SBC弹性体工业化生产的企业，上世纪80年代建成投产国内领先的万吨级 SBS(苯乙烯—丁二烯—苯乙烯嵌段共聚物)工业化装置；2006年建成投产国内领先的万吨级SEBS(氢化 苯乙烯—丁二烯—苯乙烯嵌段共聚物)工业化装置，打破国外技术垄断；2017年建成投产国内领先的年 产2万吨SEPS(氢化苯乙烯—异戊二烯共聚物)工业化装置，成为全球第三家采用具有自主知识产权核心 技术工业化生产SEPS的企业。该公司自主研发的SBS及SEBS成套技术分别获国家科学技术进步奖一等 奖、二等奖，增强了我国在高端合成橡胶领域的核心竞争力。 近年来，依托中国石化一体化、市场区位、技术及原料供应优势，结合市场形势变化，湖南石化先后与 海南炼化和上海石化合作，共同出资建设年产17万吨和25万吨SBC弹性体项目，优化合成材料发展布 局，通过"走出去"，到有原料、有市场的地区发展优势产品，进一步增强了企业核心竞争力。这两个项 目均采用中国石化自主知识产权的成套工艺技术，在环境保护、能耗控制和生产效率方面均显著优于传 统技术路线。 2023年4月，海南巴陵化工新材料公司建成投产SBC弹性体装置 ...

奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。br2602合约短线预计在10700-11400区间 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11230 | 210 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 103729 | 1734 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 10850 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10800 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10850 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 in the short term. The supply pressure of the synthetic rubber industry remains high due to high levels of circulating resources and production device loads. On the demand side, tire companies are operating with weak capacity utilization, entering the seasonal off - season, with slow overall shipment rhythms and rising finished product inventories. Some companies have production suspension or limitation due to production and sales pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the main contract position was 101,376, a decrease of 4,040. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,560 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers (Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, etc.) increased by 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. Brent crude oil was 59.68 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.76 dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan was 532.88 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.75 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 870 dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 55.94 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 8,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 55.9%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber in November was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 71.57%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.07%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.58 days, an increase of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.51 days, an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points compared with the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points compared with the same period last year. As of December 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is sufficient and production profit is high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month. However, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there may be individual enterprises for overhaul or production reduction in the future. - The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 85 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 109,301 lots. - The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,700 to 10,950 yuan/ton, with price changes of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, naphtha, Northeast Asian ethylene, and butadiene have different degrees of change. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The port inventory of butadiene has decreased by 5,200 tons. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 590,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 45.51 days. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. [2] 3.5. Industry News - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 11, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 million tons (- 1.18%). [2]

Core Insights - The BioButterfly project, a collaboration between Michelin, IFPEN, and Axens, has made significant progress in developing bio-based butadiene from bioethanol, with commercialization expected by 2026 [1] Group 1: Project Development - The technology has entered a critical pre-commercialization phase, with industrial demonstration unit operations starting in July 2023 [1] - The technology can stably utilize both first and second-generation bioethanol to produce bio-based butadiene, showing excellent carbon footprint performance [1] - The project results have been rigorously validated, and the produced bio-based butadiene has been successfully used in the synthesis of styrene-butadiene rubber and polybutadiene rubber, meeting high-end industrial application standards [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The BioButterfly project represents the most advanced technology for producing bio-based butadiene from bioethanol, with the research and development phase nearing completion [1] - The project is supported by the French Ecological Transition Agency, the New Aquitaine region, and the Bordeaux metropolitan area, marking a significant breakthrough in the application of renewable resources in the synthetic rubber industry [1] - The initiative is expected to accelerate the global elastomer industry’s transition towards sustainability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient and the production profit is high, but the downstream is firm in pressing prices, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will both increase slightly in the short term. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with a slow overall shipment rhythm and limited capacity utilization rate increase. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may overhaul or reduce production in the future. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,300 and 11,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,845 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 98,043, with a month - on - month increase of 8,209. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,650 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,700 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,900 yuan/ton, all with no month - on - month change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 61.12 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 57.44 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 548.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 870 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 35,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,200 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 70.69%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 349 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 135 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 26,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 5,450 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 220 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 71.57%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.07%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.51 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 11, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [2]