Group 1 - The core objective of Leap Motor is to become a "world-class intelligent electric vehicle company" with a long-term sales target of over 4 million units annually, aiming for a breakthrough of 1 million units by 2026 [2][4] - Leap Motor has signed an investment and cooperation agreement with China FAW, marking a significant partnership that follows the previous strategic investment from Stellantis, enhancing its capital and technological capabilities [2][6] - The company has achieved a cumulative delivery of over 1.2 million vehicles and expects nearly 600,000 units in sales for 2025, demonstrating a strong market presence and continuous quarterly profitability [3][8] Group 2 - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on self-research and manufacturing of core components, which account for approximately 65% of the vehicle's cost, allowing for a "cost pricing" principle that enhances its competitive edge [3][4] - The company plans to emphasize technological innovation, product iteration, ecosystem construction, industrial clusters, and marketing services as part of its transformation from a startup to a large-scale enterprise [4][5] - Leap Motor aims to enhance its brand recognition and user trust in the Chinese market through strategic partnerships, leveraging the strengths of its major shareholders [6][7] Group 3 - The collaboration with Stellantis has enabled Leap Motor to expand its international business, covering 35 countries and regions with over 800 overseas outlets, and projecting an export volume of over 60,000 units by 2025 [7][8] - Leap Motor's future strategy will focus on internal development and maintaining its core business, rather than broadly exporting technology, while continuing to strengthen partnerships with key stakeholders [7][8]

Core Insights - Hangzhou is undergoing a transformation from a digital economy hub to a new manufacturing era, focusing on artificial intelligence and smart connected vehicles [1][3] - Leap Motor's development trajectory aligns with Hangzhou's industrial transformation, emphasizing self-research and vertical integration in manufacturing [3][6] Industry Transformation - Hangzhou's shift represents an evolution from application-based innovation to foundational restructuring in advanced manufacturing [4] - The city aims to control the entire value chain from core chip computing power to terminal applications, moving beyond rapid business model replication [4] Leap Motor's Strategy - Leap Motor has adopted a self-research approach since its inception, prioritizing core technologies such as battery and electric drive systems [6][8] - The company has achieved a 65% self-manufactured core component ratio in its vehicle BOM costs, leading to a 10% cost advantage over competitors [8][14] Recognition and Leadership - Leap Motor's founder, Zhu Jiangming, has been recognized as a "scientific entrepreneur," reflecting the city's shift towards valuing science and technology [9][11] - The company has received significant government investment, totaling over 9 billion yuan, highlighting the supportive role of local authorities in its growth [13] Financial Performance - Leap Motor's business model focuses on cost transparency and value redefinition, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 14%-15% while passing savings to consumers [14] - The company has seen rapid growth, achieving over 250,000 cumulative vehicle sales and aiming for 1 million by 2026 [15][17] Global Expansion - Leap Motor has formed a strategic partnership with Stellantis, securing a 15 billion euro investment for a 20% stake, facilitating global market access [18][20] - The establishment of over 800 sales and service points across 35 international markets demonstrates Leap Motor's extensive channel development [20] Cultural and Philosophical Underpinnings - The company's approach reflects Hangzhou's pragmatic and daring spirit, focusing on core technology and user needs [21][23] - Leap Motor's journey serves as a model for industrial transformation, showcasing a rational path towards future competitiveness [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the Chinese automotive market in 2025, highlighting a multi-faceted battle involving new products, marketing, public opinion, and values. It identifies four prominent automotive leaders who have made significant strides in this challenging environment [1][3]. Group 1: Key Figures in the Automotive Industry - **Zhu Jiangming of Leap Motor**: Successfully transitioned from proving the company's survival to achieving significant sales, with 2025 sales expected to approach 600,000 units, including 60,000 from overseas. The company is projected to achieve profitability for the first time, driven by a self-research technology strategy and a cost-effective pricing model [6][8]. - **Zhu Huarong of Changan**: Led the establishment of Changan Automobile as a state-owned enterprise, achieving significant milestones such as the production of the 30 millionth Chinese brand vehicle. The company aims for 5 million units in sales by 2030, with over 60% from new energy vehicles [10][12]. - **Yin Tongyue of Chery**: Celebrated the successful IPO of Chery, raising HKD 9.14 billion, and achieving a market value exceeding HKD 200 billion. Chery's global sales surpassed 1 million units, with a focus on local production in markets like Spain [15][17]. - **He Xiaopeng of Xpeng Motors**: Approaching profitability with a projected delivery of 350,000 units in 2025, marking a 156% year-on-year increase. The company is also expanding into robotics and flying cars, with significant advancements in AI technology [20][22]. Group 2: Challenges and Future Goals - **Leap Motor's Challenges**: Despite its success, Leap Motor faces the challenge of enhancing brand value to move into higher price segments. Zhu Jiangming aims for 1 million units in sales by 2026 and plans to introduce new products across a broader price range [7][8]. - **Changan's Strategic Focus**: Zhu Huarong must balance ambitious strategic goals with operational effectiveness, particularly in integrating resources within the large enterprise structure to navigate competitive pressures [12]. - **Chery's High-End Market Struggles**: Chery's efforts to penetrate the high-end market face challenges, particularly with its collaboration with Huawei and the Starway brand, which has yet to establish a strong domestic presence [17]. - **Xpeng's Technological Ambitions**: He Xiaopeng's focus on expanding into robotics and flying vehicles presents both opportunities and risks, as the company navigates the complexities of its technological roadmap and market expectations [22].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market in 2025 is characterized by intense competition across multiple dimensions, including new products, marketing, public opinion, and values, leading to a "multi-front war" among companies [1] - Four prominent automotive leaders have been recognized for their significant achievements in this competitive landscape [1] Group 1: Leap Motor - Zhu Jiangming - Leap Motor is projected to approach sales of 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with overseas deliveries contributing approximately 60,000 units, achieving its annual target ahead of schedule [3] - The company is expected to achieve its first annual profit in 2025, marking a transition to a self-sustaining phase [3] - Zhu Jiangming's strategy focuses on "full self-research" technology and a "cost pricing" business model, with 65% of components being self-developed, allowing for a competitive edge in pricing [3] - Leap Motor has expanded its global presence to 35 markets with over 800 overseas stores [3] - Despite challenges, including a brief restriction on high consumption due to a subsidiary's contract dispute, Zhu Jiangming aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles in 2026 [4] Group 2: Changan - Zhu Huarong - Changan Automobile was officially established as a state-owned enterprise in July 2025, ranking 73rd among state-owned enterprises, with Zhu Huarong as its chairman [6] - The company achieved a significant milestone with the production of its 30 millionth vehicle in December 2025, setting ambitious targets for 2030, including sales of 5 million vehicles with over 60% from new energy sources [6][7] - Changan's high-end brand, Avita Technology, submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to be the first state-owned new energy vehicle company to go public [7] - Zhu Huarong faces the challenge of balancing strategic ambitions with operational effectiveness amid intense market competition [7] Group 3: Chery - Yin Tongyue - Chery Automobile completed its long-awaited IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 9.14 billion and achieving a market valuation exceeding HKD 200 billion [10] - The company exported over 1 million vehicles in 2025, with European sales increasing by over 200% year-on-year, contributing nearly 40% to total revenue [10] - Yin Tongyue aims to establish Chery as a global corporate citizen through localized production in markets like Spain [10] - Chery faces challenges in its high-end branding efforts, particularly with its collaboration with Huawei and the Xingtai brand [11] Group 4: Xpeng - He Xiaopeng - Xpeng is nearing its profitability goal, with a projected delivery of 350,000 vehicles in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 156% [13] - The company anticipates delivering between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, with total revenue expected to range from CNY 21.5 billion to CNY 23 billion [13] - Xpeng's stock has surged over 80% in Hong Kong and 75.8% in the U.S. since the beginning of the year, surpassing Li Auto's market capitalization [13] - The company is also venturing into robotics and flying cars, with plans to launch three Robotaxis in 2026 and a new generation of robots [14]

Core Viewpoint - The founder and CEO of Leap Motor, Zhu Jiangming, emphasizes that the company's mission is to provide high-quality vehicles at lower prices, leveraging technological innovation and cost-effective production methods [1][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Leap Motor aims to disrupt the automotive market by applying a B2B logic to a B2C market, focusing on self-research and manufacturing to achieve optimal vehicle costs [1][3]. - The company is committed to a cost-based pricing strategy, ensuring that savings from production are passed on to consumers [1][3]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Zhu Jiangming believes that the Chinese electric vehicle industry can surpass foreign brands, reflecting a broader trend of domestic brands rising in various sectors [1][3]. - The company positions its products as high-quality without the luxury price tag, stating that purchasing a Leap Motor vehicle does not require paying a "smart tax" [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations; the near - month 01 contract of glass will follow the delivery logic with a focus on warehouse receipt games, while soda ash is cost - priced with limited upward valuation elasticity; currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, and soda ash is in a state of supply - demand surplus [2]. - For short - term trading, the 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. With unclear short - term drivers, it is advisable to observe [6]. Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: Some glass production lines may undergo cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, affecting far - month pricing. The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, and the middle - stream high inventory and off - season demand suppress spot prices [2]. - Soda ash: It is cost - priced. Although there are occasional supply cut - backs, new production capacities are pending, and the output remains at a medium - high level. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: There are still differences in the near - term spot market. The cold repair expectation and middle - stream high inventory require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. Observe due to unclear short - term drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average price of glass spot decreased slightly. The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 3.51%, the 09 contract by 3.02%, and the 01 contract by 2.2% [8][9]. - Soda ash: The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash also declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 2.34%, the 09 contract by 2.31%, and the 01 contract by 0.91% [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, leading to potential supply - side policy expectations [12]. - Bearish information: The high inventory of glass in the middle - stream persists, and there is still room for price cuts, affecting the delivery price of the 01 contract. New production capacities of soda ash are expected to be put into operation, and the expectation of glass cold repairs will reduce the rigid demand for soda ash [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near delivery. The increase in near - term cold repairs and middle - stream high inventory lead to differences in the spot market, while far - month supply cuts and cost increases may affect market pricing and expectations [15]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass began to narrow this week, showing a positive spread trend, mainly because the near - month contract has a low valuation and short - sellers shifted to far - month contracts. - Soda ash: It generally maintains a C - structure. This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread of soda ash strengthened from around - 70 to around - 30. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term outlook has deteriorated again [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas - fired production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,240 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1,170 yuan/ton [33][34]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in October exceeded 21 million tons, maintaining high expectations [36]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [43]. - Soda ash: The current daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 104,000 - 105,000 tons. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [46]. 5.2 Demand - side and Projections - Glass: Terminal demand remains weak, downstream replenishment is limited in the off - season, and the middle - stream maintains high - level low - price replenishment. The 01 contract mainly focuses on warehouse receipt games [49]. - Soda ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is temporarily stable, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken [58][59]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The manufacturer's inventory is 58.227 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.216 million weight boxes (- 2.05%), and a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [65]. - Soda ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4943 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons. The upstream inventory is being depleted, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good [65].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday in 2025, international oil prices have continued to decline, leading to a weak overall pattern in the polyester industry chain. Despite some overseas facilities shutting down or reducing output, domestic PX operating rates remain high for the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - PX prices have come under pressure due to weak fundamentals and cost factors, with the main contract dropping to a six-month low of 6258 yuan/ton on October 15 [1] - The rebound in oil prices in late October has helped restore cost support for the polyester industry chain, while the PTA industry conference has improved market sentiment [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to support domestic polyester and PTA exports, leading to a neutral to strong demand for PX in the short term, with the core logic still revolving around cost pricing [1] - In the long term, the production capacity of PX is expected to exceed that of PTA next year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance initially, followed by a loosening trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor is set to achieve its annual sales target of 500,000 units ahead of schedule this year, driven by its commitment to maintaining a cost-effective pricing strategy while entering the high-end market with its new D platform and D19 model [2][4][6]. Group 1: D Platform and Market Positioning - The D platform represents Leap Motor's entry into a new market segment, aiming to compete with leading players while adhering to its principle of "good but not expensive" [2][4]. - Leap Motor emphasizes that the D19 is not positioned as a luxury vehicle but rather as a high-spec model with flagship features, maintaining its core value proposition [5][18]. - The company plans to introduce 2-3 flagship models from the D series by 2026, alongside 2 new models from the A series [4][7]. Group 2: Sales and Growth Expectations - Leap Motor is optimistic about its Q4 performance, with orders meeting expectations, and anticipates reaching its sales target of 500,000 units ahead of schedule [6][8]. - The company has a strategic plan for the next five years, aiming for significant growth and will announce its next sales target upon achieving the current one [26]. Group 3: Cost Control and Innovation - Leap Motor's unique approach involves setting prices based on costs rather than pursuing high margins, which is a departure from typical high-end market strategies [3][5]. - The company focuses on in-house research and development, which allows it to maintain lower costs and higher efficiency in product development [4][10]. - Innovations such as the integrated electric drive and generator system contribute to cost savings and improved performance [10][22]. Group 4: Brand Strategy and Marketing - Leap Motor's brand positioning remains consistent, with the D series not representing a shift to a luxury brand but rather an enhancement of its existing product lines [5][18]. - The decision to engage a celebrity spokesperson is aimed at enhancing brand visibility and resonance with consumers, aligning with the launch of the D series [14][35]. Group 5: Future Product Development - The D19 model features advanced technology such as a dual-vector electric drive system, which enhances performance and control, particularly in challenging driving conditions [15][16]. - Leap Motor is committed to maintaining a high standard of quality and performance across all its models, leveraging its technological capabilities to meet consumer demands [20][32]. Group 6: Financial Outlook and Profitability - The company aims to achieve profitability through scale rather than high margins, with expectations for improved financial performance in the latter half of the year [24]. - Leap Motor's strategy includes maintaining reasonable profit margins across all platforms, ensuring that high-end models do not lead to inflated pricing [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Guinea's rainy season supports ore prices and alumina costs, but the oversupply in the fundamentals suppresses prices. Without a new round of strong policy stimulus, it is difficult for prices to break upward. Short - term sentiment - driven funds may support the futures price. In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core range of near - month contracts at 3050 - 3300 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Directory Spot - National spot prices are supported by futures and have stabilized. As of Monday this week, the average price of three networks in Shanxi was 3257 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 3238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the average price of three networks in Guizhou increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions remained unchanged week - on - week [14]. - As of last Friday, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. After considering the small exchange - rate fluctuations, the cost of importing Western Australian alumina to northern ports in China was equivalent to 3356 yuan/ton [14]. - As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina was - 103.05 yuan/ton. The Nanshan Bintan project in Indonesia started production in July, increasing overseas supply pressure. Alumina is expected to remain in a net - export state, but the volume has shrunk significantly [3][14]. Futures - Last week, the futures price of the main alumina contract first rose and then fell. The main alumina contract opened at 3162 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly change of - 1.92% and a volatility of 0.75%. The highest point during the week was 3253 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3130 yuan/ton [18]. - The futures market is shifting from structure C to structure B, and the far - month contract has formed a C - type structure [18]. Cost - In terms of costs, they are basically the same as last week, with the fully - taxed costs in various regions currently running at around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [25]. - As of last Friday, the average CIF price of imported Guinea ore was 73.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the average CIF price of imported Australian ore was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also unchanged week - on - week. The rainy season in Guinea supports the CAPE - type shipping fee at around 23 US dollars/ton, making it difficult for ore prices to fall in the short term [25]. - In the caustic soda market, the supply of caustic soda has increased, but the price of 50% caustic soda has rebounded, driving the 32% caustic soda price to stabilize temporarily. The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25]. Supply - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.851 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.22%. The operating capacity of alumina was 95.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons or 0.63%. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a record high, exceeding 95 million tons for the first time. Coupled with a sharp decrease in net exports, the weekly surplus has been rising [3][32]. - There is a new production - capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has room to reach a new historical peak [32]. Inventory - Alumina has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and has fallen within the historical range for two consecutive weeks. As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of on - site, in - transit, raw - material, and port inventories) according to the Steel Union's statistics was 4.144 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.062 million tons, with the inventory - accumulation rate being the highest in the past month [3][37]. - Special attention should be paid to the on - site inventory of alumina plants. It was previously predicted that the tightness of the spot market was easing, and there was an upward trend in the on - site inventory of alumina plants. Although the current on - site inventory is still at a historical low, the loosening of spot prices indicates that the tightness of the spot market is still easing [37]. - According to both the Steel Union and ALD data, the raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has been decreasing continuously, indicating that the tightness of downstream demand has eased [37]. - However, in the current market, the bearish fundamental data should be viewed dialectically. Neither the increasing inventory - accumulation rate nor the continuously record - high operating capacity can be the sole basis for judging the market. In the short term, capital movements are the main factor [37].