中金研究 进入2026年，市场聚焦成长风格，主题性投资机会涌现，公用事业板块在风格切换和基本面弱势下市场关注度走弱，延续2H25趋势。但我们认为长线 资金仍有高息配置需求，同时区域个股存在交易性机会。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 主线1：赛道盈利、现金流逐步释放，格局稳中向好。1） 垃圾发电 行业运营转型卓有成效，企业聚焦存量资产提质增效，通过向优对标核心运营数据， 推动基本面和行业格局稳中向好。此外，资本开支下滑、应收改善趋势下，行业自由现金流改善，带动分红能力和意愿提升。同时，企业积极探索绿电直 连等新场景匹配稳定用电需求，并谨慎寻求出海机会，拓展增长空间。 2） 核电 ：华南电价风险释放较为充分，我们预计区域内核电资产盈利有望企 稳。进入"十五五"，核电进入密集投产期，每年稳定贡献盈利增量。 主线2：仍有高股息配置需求，关注强支付能力的火电、香港公用事业。 海外降息及国内低利率环境持续，长线资金仍有高股息投资需求，比起以往市场 偏好的水电板块，我们认为资本开支放缓、现金流充沛的火电、垃圾发电具备提升派息空间，有望成为新的高分红备选标的。此外，香港公用事业利润可 预期性强，历史分红确定 ...

Group 1 - The fundamentals and industry landscape of waste-to-energy are steadily improving, while nuclear power is entering a period of intensive production, contributing stable profit increments annually [1] - The waste-to-energy sector is effectively transforming its operations, focusing on enhancing existing assets and improving cash flow, which boosts dividend capacity and willingness [1] - Nuclear power assets in South China are expected to stabilize in profitability, with the sector entering a phase of consistent production during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2 - There remains a strong demand for high dividend-paying investments, particularly in thermal power and Hong Kong utilities, as long-term funds seek high-yield options [2] - Compared to previously favored hydropower, thermal and waste-to-energy sectors are seen as having greater potential for dividend increases due to reduced capital expenditures and strong cash flows [2] - Hong Kong utilities are characterized by predictable profits and high historical dividend certainty, making them attractive investment options [2] Group 3 - The transition to a new energy system is ongoing, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on green energy consumption, application, and accelerated grid construction [3] - The green energy sector is expected to recover from its fundamental low, aided by various measures including reduced investment on the supply side and enhanced responsibilities on the demand side [3] - There are opportunities for improved cash flow in green energy operations due to accelerated subsidy disbursements, particularly for leading companies with high wind energy ratios and operational capabilities [3]

诺安多策略混合A（320016）成立日期2011年8月9日，最新规模18.55亿。今年以来收益6.09%，同类排 名3184/9009；近一年收益79.26%，同类排名550/8164；成立以来收益250.1%。 诺安多策略混合A（320016）基金经理为孔宪政。 1月19日，百川畅银涨5.34%，截至发稿，报13.42元/股，成交2633.75万元，换手率1.26%，总市值21.53 亿元。 资料显示，河南百川畅银环保能源股份有限公司位于河南省郑州市郑东新区如意西路如意河西二街楷林 大厦10楼，成立日期2009年4月2日，上市日期2021年5月25日，公司主营业务涉及垃圾填埋气发电。主 营业务收入构成为：电力43.93%，热力20.35%，其他19.00%，环卫及再生资源回收服务16.72%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，诺安基金旗下1只基金重仓百川畅银。诺安多策略混合A（320016）三季度持有股数106.96万 股，占基金净值比例为0.5%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约72.73万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至发稿，孔宪政累计任职时间5年55天，现任基金资产总规模56.08亿元，任职期 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market supply and demand have shown improvement, with sufficient adjustments made, indicating a potential stabilization by 2026, marking a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets [1] - In a low-interest-rate environment, long-term capital continues to allocate towards commercial real estate, suggesting rapid growth in the commercial management industry [1] - Leading companies in the construction and building materials sector have enhanced their market share and optimized sales channels through five years of adjustments, demonstrating the ability to navigate through cycles, with performance inflection points expected for some companies in 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the public utilities and environmental protection sector, water and electricity companies are preferred for their strong anti-cyclical capabilities and attractive dividend yields [1] - Gas companies are expected to gradually recover their performance as gas prices decline and demand rebounds [1] - Waste-to-energy companies are anticipated to successfully expand overseas, breaking through growth constraints [1]

云南水务印尼泗水垃圾气化发电厂于2021年建成并商业运营，是印尼第一座、也是目前唯一一座建成并 运营的垃圾发电厂。该厂通过垃圾焚烧热解气化发电处理泗水市一半人口约175万人产生的垃圾，满足 20万人用电需求。 1月15日，驻泗水总领事叶素带队赴云南水务印尼泗水垃圾气化发电厂走访调研，同企业负责人座谈交 流，并开展现场安全生产检查。 叶素总领事认真听取企业经营发展、安全生产管理、员工福利保障等情况，充分肯定该项目的生态效益 和社会效益，表示该项目为印尼垃圾处理和新能源发展贡献了中国智慧和力量，是绿色"一带一路"的生 动实践。希望企业进一步提高政治站位，确保合规经营，重视安全生产，积极履行社会责任，树立中资 企业良好形象。总领馆将一如既往为领区中资企业提供服务和保障。 ...

Group 1 - The company is accelerating the construction progress of its two waste-to-energy plants in Vietnam, located in Qinghua and Fushou, aiming for early operational commencement [2] - The operational launch of these projects is expected to contribute to the sustainable growth of the company's performance [2]

Group 1 - The company has operational waste-to-energy projects in Guangdong, Hunan, and Shanxi provinces [2] - The company has established overseas subsidiaries and is actively exploring related overseas business opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively involved in waste incineration power generation projects in multiple regions within China and is exploring overseas business opportunities [1] Group 1: Domestic Operations - The company operates waste incineration power generation projects in Guangdong, Hunan, and Shanxi provinces [1] - The company has established a presence in various regions, indicating a diversified domestic operational strategy [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The company has set up overseas subsidiaries and is actively exploring related overseas business opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The waste-to-energy industry in China is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities, including market saturation, tightening environmental standards, high accounts receivable, and intensified competition [1][2][6] - The industry is also experiencing a wave of digitalization, resource optimization, and globalization, which are injecting new momentum for development [1][2][6] - Cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and finding a second growth curve have become essential tasks for companies in the sector [1][2][6] Industry Challenges - The market scale of the waste incineration industry has reached its peak, with growth rates declining from 27% in 2021 to an estimated 3% by 2025, and the number of treatment plants increasing at a slower rate from 54% to 8% [6][21] - Environmental policies are tightening, transitioning from national standards to stricter local regulations, particularly regarding fly ash resource utilization and zero landfill requirements [6][21] - The industry is plagued by a single revenue model reliant on "waste treatment fees + electricity sales," leading to low income elasticity and weak risk resistance [6][21] - By the end of 2024, accounts receivable in the industry are projected to reach 50-60 billion yuan, with national subsidies accounting for 35-40% and waste treatment fees for 45-55% [6][21] - The industry is experiencing severe internal competition, with price wars and market fragmentation reducing overall profitability and development space [6][21] Strategic Responses - The company is exploring a breakthrough path centered on "technology empowerment, diversification and cross-industry integration, and globalization" to overcome industry bottlenecks [9][24] - Digital transformation is being prioritized through the introduction of IoT, big data, and cloud computing to create a smart operation management platform, achieving significant improvements in operational metrics [9][24] - The company is also focusing on the research and development of fly ash resource utilization technologies in collaboration with research institutions [9][24] - Aiming for a comprehensive AI-driven project, the company predicts that AI implementation could enhance efficiency by 30-50%, reduce costs by 20-35%, and lower carbon emissions by 25-40% by 2030 [9][24] Diversification and Globalization - The company is actively expanding into areas such as heating supply, biogas utilization, sludge disposal, and kitchen waste treatment to maximize resource utilization and value [10][25] - Following a reduction in national subsidies, the company managed to recover profits through diversified operations, demonstrating the importance of this strategy in crisis management [10][25] - The company plans to collaborate with national green trading institutions to establish mechanisms for carbon reduction and explore opportunities in green electricity [10][25] - Global expansion efforts will focus on regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Southeast Asia, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, utilizing its technological advantages to mitigate investment risks [10][25] Collaborative Approaches - The company advocates for industry collaboration, including project exchanges, capacity sharing, and the establishment of technology research alliances to enhance overall management levels [13][26] - It aims to create an integrated ecosystem for waste collection, transportation, and treatment, optimizing operational efficiency across the entire value chain [13][26] - The company emphasizes the importance of international market collaboration through joint ventures and market alliances to share resources and risks [13][26] Future Outlook - The company believes that digitalization is key to cost reduction and enhancing core competitiveness, while resource optimization is essential for sustainable development [14][27] - Globalization is viewed as a critical direction for overcoming development bottlenecks, with a focus on achieving a harmonious balance between technology and collaboration to foster differentiated competition [14][27]

Group 1 - The company has acquired two waste-to-energy projects in the northern and central regions, and the operation of these projects is stable with technical indicators at a good industry level [1] - The company is inquiring about the power generation utilization rates for the acquired waste-to-energy companies from 2023 to 2025, as well as the availability of other waste-to-energy companies in Zhongshan [1] - The company emphasizes that it strictly follows the franchise agreement and relevant policies to obtain waste treatment service fees, and details regarding government support should be verified through official government sources [1]