Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of the Iran conflict on Asian markets, focusing on macroeconomic factors such as inflation and growth vulnerabilities in the region [1][2]. Core Insights - The conflict has disrupted traditional market narratives, leading to a more stagflationary outlook with rising inflation risks and vulnerable growth, particularly in energy-importing economies in Asia and Europe [7]. - The missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex have transformed a temporary disruption into a structural shock, removing nearly 13 million tons per annum (mtpa) of supply for several years, which tightens the global gas market beyond 2026 [9]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in significant supply shocks, with fuel shortages emerging, particularly in jet fuel and naphtha, and a prolonged closure could lead to demand destruction [11]. - The Brent price forecast has been increased to $80 for 2027, reflecting the ongoing supply chain issues and market dynamics [11]. Market Dynamics - The environment for investors is becoming more binary, with deeper escalation in the conflict making diversification more challenging and increasing downside risks for risk assets [7]. - The report emphasizes that cash and government bonds are becoming more relevant as defensive assets in the current market environment [7]. Alternative Investments - There is an evolving appetite for alternative investments, with a shift towards infrastructure, private equity, and tax-efficient strategies, despite a temporary pause in private credit [12][13]. - The wealth channel remains underpenetrated, indicating potential growth opportunities in alternative investments [13]. Market Forecasts - Key market forecasts indicate significant potential declines in various indices, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index projected to drop by 27.5% in a bear case scenario [20]. - The report outlines specific index targets for December 2026, with varying scenarios for different markets, including a bear case and a bull case [20]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the challenges of diversification in the current market environment, where equities, bonds, and gold have moved in the same direction at times [2]. - The potential for demand destruction due to prolonged supply chain issues is a critical concern for the energy sector [11]. Conclusion - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, are reshaping market dynamics in Asia, leading to increased inflation risks and vulnerabilities in growth, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies and asset allocations [1][7][9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the energy sector is currently at a bottoming stage, with an expected absolute free cash flow yield outperforming the market by approximately 4% in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The report argues against the "peak oil demand" theory, suggesting that consumption upgrades in Asia and strategic stockpiling will support oil price expectations for 2027 [1][7]. - The shale oil outlook is seen as overly pessimistic, with potential for production increases in the Permian Basin, despite challenges at the $70 per barrel price level [1][10]. - The report highlights a shift towards energy independence driven by de-globalization, with coal becoming a primary alternative to intermittent renewable energy sources [1][9]. - The energy sector's representation in the S&P 500 is currently low at 4%, but it is expected to rise to double digits in the future [1][12]. Summary by Sections Energy Market Dynamics - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a daily production loss of 12-13 million barrels, causing a "super volatility" market rather than a stable "super cycle" [1][2]. - Historical comparisons indicate that the current market turmoil resembles the 1970s oil crisis, but with significant differences, particularly in demand dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report notes that the energy industry is at a bottoming phase, with previous overproduction concerns being overstated [3][4]. - If the Strait remains closed, correcting the daily demand gap of 10-12 million barrels will be challenging, and price adjustments will be critical [4][5]. Regional Trends and Strategic Moves - The report discusses the potential for regionalization in the oil market but concludes that the global oil market is unlikely to end, despite some countries possibly implementing temporary export bans [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic reserves and redundancy in energy supply chains, which may enhance energy intensity and economic growth [9][12]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised to maintain liquidity and prioritize cash reserves during downturns, as the industry may be entering a super cycle of capital returns [11][12]. - The report suggests that the energy sector, including renewables and new technologies, should be a focal point for investors, especially in light of ongoing market changes [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost loss and maintenance support have led to a continuous increase in domestic LNG prices. The downstream's ability to accept high gas prices is currently insufficient [3]. - The current utilization rate of the US LNG export capacity is at a high level, so the actual increase in US export demand due to the current US - Iran conflict is generally limited [3]. - Europe has a relatively low dependence on Middle - Eastern LNG, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a shortage of international LNG supply. The competition for international LNG between Europe and Asia may intensify, especially when Europe has more inventory replenishment needs [3]. - In the short term, Asian LNG prices are more affected by geopolitical factors and remain at a high level. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, LNG prices will rise further [3]. Summary According to the Directory 01 Natural Gas Price Analysis - **International Price Summary**: It presents the futures and spot prices of HH, AECO, TTF, NBP, JKM, and China's arrival price from 2025 to 2026, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes and average prices [11]. - **Domestic Price Summary**: It shows the prices of LNG in different regions of China (Northwest, Northeast, North China, East China, Central China, South China, Southwest) and China's arrival price from 2025 to 2026, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [21]. - **Import Cost**: It includes the LNG comprehensive import to - shore price, pipeline gas import average price, LNG import average price, and natural gas comprehensive import price, with their changes over different time periods [31]. - **Related Commodity Price Summary**: It covers the prices of JCC, low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, Brent, and other related commodities, along with their changes [37]. - **Forward Curve**: It shows the forward curves of HH, TTF, NBP, and JKM [46]. - **Spread**: It includes HH basis, TTF basis, TTF - HH spread, JKM - HH spread, JKM - TTF spread, and the comparison between JKM netback value and TTF netback value [49][52][54]. - **Profit**: It includes the theoretical production profit of Inner Mongolia LNG plants, LNG comprehensive import profit, and the price difference between import prices and domestic market prices [62][65]. - **Freight**: It shows the spot charter rates of LNG ships in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans [69]. 02 World Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - **Natural Gas Rig Count**: It presents the rig counts in different regions such as Canada, Asia - Pacific, the world, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa [75][78]. - **World Natural Gas Demand**: It shows the natural gas consumption of OECD countries, including monthly cumulative consumption and month - on - month changes [80]. - **World Natural Gas Import and Export**: It includes the LNG exports of Australia, Russia's eastern region, and Qatar, as well as the LNG imports of Japan and South Korea, and the utilization rates of export terminals and receiving stations in different regions [83][85][87]. - **World Natural Gas Inventory**: It includes the LNG inventories of Japan's public utilities, over - 30 - day and over - 20 - day floating LNG, and South Korea's natural gas inventory [92]. - **World Important City Temperatures**: It shows the CDD and HDD of Seoul and Tokyo [95]. - **Japan's Power Generation**: It presents the total power generation and power generation from different sources (natural gas, coal, nuclear, etc.) in Japan [97][100]. - **World Natural Gas Supply and Demand Forecast**: It provides the BNEF forecasts of LNG exports and imports in the world, as well as the natural gas supply and demand forecasts in Japan and South Korea [102][105][107]. 03 US Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - **US Natural Gas Production**: It shows the weekly dry gas production and the EIA's expected daily dry gas production [112][114]. - **US Natural Gas Rig Count**: It presents the weekly rig counts of crude oil and natural gas in the US [116]. - **US Natural Gas Demand**: It includes the weekly natural gas consumption in the US, consumption for power generation, residential/commercial use, and industrial use, as well as the EIA's expected daily natural gas consumption [119][122]. - **US Natural Gas Import and Export**: It shows the US LNG exports and the net intake volumes of different LNG terminals, as well as the pipeline gas imports and exports [127][129][134]. - **US Natural Gas Inventory**: It includes the inventory of US gas storage facilities, underground gas storage facilities in different regions, and the inventory of salt cavern and non - salt cavern gas storage in the Midwest [136][139][142]. - **US Major City Temperatures**: It shows the CDD and HDD of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles [145]. - **US EIA Natural Gas Balance Sheet**: It presents the supply, demand, and inventory of natural gas in the US from January 2026 to December 2027 [148]. 04 European Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - **European Natural Gas Production**: It shows the production of the UK and the Netherlands, and the monthly production of Norway [153]. - **European Natural Gas Rig Count**: It presents the monthly rig count in Europe [156]. - **European Natural Gas Demand**: It includes the total consumption and natural gas power generation in France, Italy, Germany, and Spain [158][160][163]. - **European Natural Gas Import and Export**: It includes the pipeline gas exports of Norway, TAP, North Africa to Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, Russia's exports to different parts of Europe, and the LNG imports of different regions in Europe [165][168][171]. - **European Natural Gas Inventory**: It includes the injection, extraction, and inventory of European gas storage facilities, as well as the inventories of gas storage facilities and LNG receiving stations in different countries [177][180][188]. - **European Important City Temperatures**: It shows the CDD and HDD of Madrid, Berlin, Paris, and Rome [192][195]. - **Other**: It shows the water level of the Rhine River at Kaub and the BNEF's forecast of European natural gas supply and demand [198][199]. 05 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - **Natural Gas Total Supply**: It shows the monthly and cumulative values of natural gas total supply in China [205]. - **Natural Gas Production**: It shows the monthly and cumulative values of domestic natural gas production [208]. - **Natural Gas Import**: It includes the monthly and cumulative values of natural gas total imports, pipeline gas imports, and LNG imports, as well as the number of LNG ships at receiving stations, LNG arrival volume, and receiving station utilization rate [211][214][216]. - **Domestic LNG Commodity Volume**: - **Receiving Station Truck - Loading Volume**: It shows the truck - loading volumes of different regions and the total truck - loading volume, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [221]. - **LNG Plant Production**: It shows the production of LNG plants in different regions and the total production, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [232]. - **Natural Gas Total Demand**: It shows the monthly and cumulative values of natural gas apparent consumption and the weekly and cumulative values of domestic LNG total demand [250][254]. - **LNG Plant Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of LNG plants in different regions and the total shipment volume, along with their week - on - week and month - on - month changes [255]. - **Weather**: It provides weather forecasts and the CDD and HDD of Beijing, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Shanghai [267][270]. - **Natural Gas Consumption by Sector**: - **Transportation Gas Consumption**: It shows the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and the China Logistics Prosperity Index [272]. - **Industrial Gas Consumption**: It shows the PMI in China [274]. - **Power Generation Gas Consumption**: It shows the water level of the Three Gorges Dam [276]. - **Natural Gas Inventory**: - **LNG Plant Inventory**: It shows the inventories of LNG plants in different regions and the total inventory, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [279]. - **Receiving Station Inventory**: The provided content does not mention detailed information about receiving station inventory.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 193.979 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.71%, while the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.30% to 5.346 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Natural Gas Sales Performance - Despite a challenging environment with a mere 0.1% year-on-year growth in national natural gas consumption, the company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 59.255 billion cubic meters, up 9.4% year-on-year, due to market expansion efforts [1] - The company developed 11 new city gas projects across eight provinces, contributing to a 2.3% increase in retail gas volume and a 20.2% increase in distribution and trading volume [1] - The average selling price of natural gas was 2.73 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.11 yuan, while the average purchase price was 2.28 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.09 yuan, leading to a weighted average price difference of 0.45 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 0.02 yuan from 2024 [1] Group 2: LNG and LPG Business Performance - The company processed a total of 16.527 billion cubic meters at its LNG receiving stations in 2025, a 3.7% increase, with an average load factor of 90.8%, up 3.2 percentage points [2] - Revenue from LNG receiving stations reached 5.039 billion yuan, a 5.3% increase, while tax profit was 3.765 billion yuan, up 5.2% [2] - The LPG sales volume increased by 6.3% to 6.1477 million tons, driven by a 23.4% growth in industrial direct supply sales, resulting in a tax profit of 0.837 billion yuan, an 8.3% increase [2] Group 3: Dividend and Future Earnings Estimates - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.1498 yuan per share for 2025, with a payout ratio of 51%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.32% based on the closing price on March 24 [3] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 5.626 billion yuan, 5.921 billion yuan, and 6.321 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.73 yuan, and PE ratios of 10.09, 9.59, and 8.98 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a peak season, with the overall supply chain in a phase of quantity leading and price following. Despite a short-term decline in domestic new energy vehicle sales, export data for new energy vehicles is strong, and the electrification rates of commercial vehicles and heavy trucks are continuously increasing, leading to good performance in battery sales [3][10] - In the natural gas sector, Sinopec's pricing scheme for 2026-2027 has been released, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in natural gas production in January-February 2026, while imports decreased by 1.1%. The pricing scheme aims to enhance the stability of costs against international price fluctuations [5][18] Summary by Sections Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery, with demand shifting from solely relying on power batteries to a dual drive of power and energy storage. In February 2026, global lithium battery production reached 202.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%, with energy storage battery production at 70 GWh, up 150% [10] - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles in January-February 2026 were 1.126 million units, a decrease of 27.5% year-on-year, while exports reached 583,000 units, an increase of 110% [10] - The demand for lithium batteries is driving production in the supply chain, with a month-on-month increase in production of materials. However, rising costs on the supply side are leading to price increases in the battery industry [12][14] Natural Gas - Sinopec's pricing scheme for 2026-2027 has increased the proportion of controllable resources, reducing the unpredictability of costs due to international gas price fluctuations. The basic volume proportion has increased from 35% to 50% [18][19] - In January-February 2026, China's natural gas production increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 1.1%. The production growth rate has slowed, and the decline in imports may be influenced by weak downstream demand [5][24] - The report suggests focusing on natural gas upstream coalbed methane extraction companies, such as Xinnatural Gas and Shouhua Gas, as well as low-valuation high-dividend city gas companies with gas source advantages [6][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In 2025, despite a challenging environment with a mere 0.1% year-on-year growth in national natural gas apparent consumption, the company's natural gas sales volume still achieved a robust growth of 9.4%. However, the gross margin continued to be under pressure, with the weighted average purchase and sales price difference decreasing by 0.02 CNY per cubic meter year-on-year to 0.45 CNY per cubic meter, which limited the performance of the segment. The pre-tax profit from the natural gas sales business decreased by 17.6% year-on-year [2][5]. - The LNG and LPG business operations showed continuous improvement, with pre-tax profits for LNG receiving stations, LNG plants, and LPG sales increasing by 5.3%, 144.7%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively. Overall, due to the pressure on the natural gas sales business, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.346 billion CNY in 2025, a decrease of 10.30% year-on-year [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 193.979 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.346 billion CNY, down 10.30% year-on-year [5]. Natural Gas Sales Performance - The total natural gas sales volume reached 59.255 billion cubic meters, up 9.4% year-on-year, driven by the development of new city gas projects in various provinces. The average sales price was 2.73 CNY per cubic meter, down 0.11 CNY, while the average purchase price was 2.28 CNY per cubic meter, down 0.09 CNY. The gross margin continued to be under pressure, leading to a 17.6% decrease in pre-tax profit from the natural gas sales segment [2][8]. LNG and LPG Business - The LNG receiving stations processed a total of 16.527 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a high average load rate of 90.8%. The LNG plant's processing volume also increased by 5.3%, and despite a decrease in revenue due to lower processing fees, the pre-tax profit surged by 144.7% year-on-year. The LPG sales volume reached 6.1477 million tons, up 6.3% year-on-year, contributing to an 8.3% increase in pre-tax profit [2][5]. Dividend and Valuation - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.1498 CNY per share for 2025, with an annual payout ratio of 51%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.32% based on the closing price on March 24. The projected earnings for 2025-2027 are 5.626 billion CNY, 5.921 billion CNY, and 6.321 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 CNY, 0.68 CNY, and 0.73 CNY, and PE ratios of 10.09, 9.59, and 8.98, respectively [2][5].

伊朗自27日晚间起已停止向伊拉克南部地区供应天然气。 当地时间2 8日，伊拉克电力部发言人艾哈迈德·阿巴迪表示，伊朗自27日晚间起已停止向 伊拉克南部地区供应天然气，此前每日天然气供应量达1 0 0 0万立方米。阿巴迪称，伊朗 目前向伊拉克中部地区供应的天然气量也限制在每日1000万立方米。 阿巴迪指出，该地区持续的动荡局势正在影响伊拉克境内的石油开采、生产和出口。伊电 力部正在密切关注地区局势，以确保伊朗方面的限制措施不会影响伊拉克境内发电厂所需 的燃料供应。 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 来源：央视新闻客户端 责编丨李慧颖 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ ...

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy reported a revenue of 193.98 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.35 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, and core profit was 5.92 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, which was below the forecast of 6.15 billion yuan by Huatai Securities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.498 yuan per share, with a total annual dividend of 3.158 yuan per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 51%, exceeding the target of 45% [1] - The company has committed to maintaining a payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2026 to 2028, with total annual dividends not lower than the level of 2025 [1] - Free cash flow for 2025 was 7.21 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 35.97%, indicating a stable financial condition [2] Group 2: Retail Gas Volume and Pricing - Retail gas volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 33.51 billion cubic meters, with industrial gas volume rising by 6.2% to 26.05 billion cubic meters, accounting for 77.7% of the total [1] - The average retail price difference was 0.45 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.02 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the delayed implementation of the pricing mechanism and warmer winter [1] - The company expects retail gas volume to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2026, with price differences stabilizing [1] Group 3: LNG Operations and Efficiency - The average load factor of LNG receiving stations was 90.8%, with a processing volume of 16.53 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.7% [2] - The operational efficiency of LNG plants improved, with an average processing load factor of 67.2% and a processing volume of 3.74 billion cubic meters, up 5.3% [2] - The pre-tax profit from the LNG processing and storage segment was 3.97 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.4% [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company has lowered its profit forecast due to changes in exchange rates and has slightly raised its target price to 8.63 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2027 has been reduced by 16% and 13% to 5.45 billion yuan and 5.93 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company anticipates a long-term value reassessment due to dividend expansion, despite lower-than-expected profit growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy reported its 2025 annual performance, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite growth in gas sales and expansion in city gas projects [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 193.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.71% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.346 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year [1]. - Core net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.923 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.86%, slightly below expectations [1]. - The proposed final dividend is 0.1498 yuan per share, with a total annual dividend of 0.3158 yuan per share, maintaining the same level as the previous year [1]. Gas Sales and Distribution - Total natural gas sales reached 59.255 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year, with retail gas volume at 33.509 billion cubic meters, up 2.3% [2]. - Industrial gas sales grew significantly, increasing by 6.2% to 26.052 billion cubic meters, compensating for declines in commercial and residential sectors [2]. - Distribution and trading gas volume grew by 20.2% to 25.746 billion cubic meters [2]. - The company added 11 new city gas projects and 738,000 new users, bringing the total user count to 17.192 million by the end of 2025 [2]. LNG and LPG Business - The average load factor of LNG receiving stations was 90.8%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while LNG plant load factor was 67.2%, also up 3.2 percentage points [3]. - LNG processing and storage business pre-tax profit increased by 8.4% to 3.970 billion yuan [3]. - LPG sales volume rose by 6.3% to 6.148 million tons, with retail sales growing by 15.2% [3]. - LPG pre-tax profit increased by 8.3% to 840 million yuan, benefiting from a high oil price environment [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan for 2026-2028, committing to a minimum annual payout of 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders, enhancing investor returns and providing dividend certainty [4]. - The dividend policy aims to stabilize investor returns and reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

March 2026 1 Business Highlights Core profit reached RMB6.74 bn，gross profit share of IE and smart home businesses reached 41%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points yoy Content Retail gas sales volume increased by 1.5% yoy to 26.61 bn m³ with the newly installed designed daily capacity of 13.44 mn m³ for C/I customers, and newly developed 1.38 mn residential household customers Gross profit of IE business increased by 5.3% yoy to RMB2.34 bn, newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 167.4% yoy to 6 ...