新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 多晶硅现货价格仍有支撑，盘面回落后有所企稳 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-23，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8930元/吨，最后收于8925元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-210） 元/吨，变化（-2.30）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓273696手，2025-09-23仓单总数为49963手，较前一日变化 161手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格企稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8900-9100（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8900-9100（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10900-11200（0）元/吨。SMM报道，当前部分单体厂预售排单已至本月 底及下月初，在预售订单，及成本端支撑逐渐增强的情况下，单体厂挺价意愿逐步提升，但根据市场反馈来看， 价格上行仍面临明显制约，自价格开始探涨后，新单成交情况转淡，下游企业对高于低位区间的报价仍 ...

9月24日，新亚强盘中上涨2.00%，截至11:28，报15.80元/股，成交2717.77万元，换手率0.55%，总市值 49.89亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入85.99万元，特大单买入105.26万元，占比3.87%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入331.35万元，占比12.19%，卖出350.62万元，占比12.90%。 截至6月30日，新亚强股东户数3.80万，较上期增加136.64%；人均流通股8319股，较上期减少57.74%。 2025年1月-6月，新亚强实现营业收入3.21亿元，同比减少18.58%；归母净利润5901.29万元，同比减少 27.75%。 分红方面，新亚强A股上市后累计派现7.35亿元。近三年，累计派现4.94亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 今年以来新亚强已经5次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为8月15日。 资料显示，新亚强硅化学股份有限公司位于江苏省宿迁生态化工科技产业园扬子路2号，成立日期2009 年11月13日，上市日期2020年9月1日，公司主营业务涉及有机硅精细化学品研发、生产及销售。主营业 务收入构成为：功能性助剂85.50%，苯基氯硅烷10.41% ...

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 18.9, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group achieved revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a gross margin of 29.1%, up nearly 9.3 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, slightly exceeding the company's profit forecast [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Business - The refrigerant business experienced rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's performance, with revenue of RMB 22.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%; profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 209.8%, with a segment profit margin of 44.9%, up 23.5 percentage points, driven by significant price increases in key products [2] - As of September 12, 2025, the price of second-generation refrigerant R22 was RMB 34,500 per ton, up RMB 2,500 per ton since the beginning of the year; third-generation refrigerants R134a and R32 also saw price increases [2] Group 3: Fluoropolymer and Silicone Business - The fluoropolymer materials segment faced weak downstream demand, leading to a further decline in product prices; however, the company maintained a competitive advantage with superior product quality, achieving revenue of RMB 19.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a segment profit margin of 13.4% [3] - The silicone segment experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with revenue of RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and a segment profit margin of 0.38% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Hengstar Technology (002132) has confirmed its subsidiary Hengstar Chemical is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of organic silicon and related products [1] - The main products of Hengstar Chemical include DMC, D5, 110 glue, 107 glue, and fumed silica [1] - The company will disclose any new developments in its business layout in a timely manner [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.33% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, ranking 20th among all Shenwan first-level industries [5][11] - The organic silicon price saw a slight increase, with the DMC intermediate price reaching 11,000 CNY/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week, supported by strong pre-sale orders and rising raw material costs [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors within the basic chemical industry, including refrigerants constrained by quotas, industries benefiting from "anti-involution" trends like titanium dioxide, and sectors driven by domestic demand such as phosphate fertilizers and civil explosives [8][27] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry had a weekly decline of 1.33% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with the top five gaining stocks being Kaimeite Gases, Guangdong Hongda, Jinghua New Materials, *ST Yatai, and Xinghua New Materials, while the top five losing stocks included Jianbang Co., Runyang Technology, Wankai New Materials, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and Changhua Chemical [5][11] Subsector - Organic Silicon - The organic silicon price increased slightly, with the DMC intermediate price at 11,000 CNY/ton as of September 19, 2025, reflecting a 1.9% rise from the previous week. This increase is attributed to strong pre-sale orders and rising costs of raw materials, particularly metallic silicon [6][12] - The operating rate and production of organic silicon intermediates showed significant month-on-month increases in August [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to the following sectors in the basic chemical industry: 1) refrigerants affected by quota constraints (e.g., Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group); 2) industries benefiting from "anti-involution," such as titanium dioxide (e.g., Longbai Group); 3) domestic demand-driven sectors that can mitigate tariff impacts, such as phosphate fertilizers (e.g., Yuntianhua) and civil explosives (e.g., Guangdong Hongda) [8][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Neutral for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range operation for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have little change, with a slight increase in inventory. The recent rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly due to capital behavior and news, and there is still pressure above. If there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3] - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The 2511 main contract opened at 8,920 yuan/ton and closed at 8,905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 285,052 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, down 25 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in many regions were stable, and the price of 97 silicon was also stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 18 was 543,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week [1] - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, but price increases were restricted. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 53,200 yuan/ton and closed at 53,205 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. The position was 122,834 lots (126,234 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 198,758 lots [4][5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.20 - 55.00 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons (up 3.79% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (up 1.93% month - on - month). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (up 3.31% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (up 0.29% month - on - month) [5] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only a slight decline in the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers [5][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Core Viewpoint - Xin'an Chemical achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.07 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, but the second quarter saw a net profit of 35.94 million yuan, an increase of 74.6% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company's main business compensated for price declines with volume, leading to an improvement in gross margin on a quarterly basis [1] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 210 million, 620 million, and 790 million yuan respectively, with previous estimates being 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The price of glyphosate, a major product, exhibited a U-shaped trend, with supply and demand conditions improving continuously; as of August 21, 2025, the market price for glyphosate in East China was 27,100 yuan per ton, up 13.9% from the beginning of the year [1] - The organic silicon industry is expected to see a sustained improvement in supply-demand dynamics due to the exit of overseas production capacity and the nearing end of domestic capacity expansion, coupled with increasing downstream demand [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector's revenue and net profit showed steady growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1,167.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% [5][13] - The construction of new capacity has slowed down, confirming a supply inflection point, with total fixed assets at approximately 1,446.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6][22] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to further enhance industry profits [16] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the basic chemical sector achieved total revenue of 611.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10% [5][13] - The total net profit for H1 2025 was 70.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [14] 2. Construction and Capacity - The total amount of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector was 350.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [6][22] - The ratio of ongoing projects to fixed assets was only 24%, down from 37% in Q2 2023, indicating a significant reduction in new capacity growth [6][22] 3. Sub-industry Performance - Among the 33 sub-industries, 17 reported revenue growth, with fluorochemical showing the highest growth at 29% [31][32] - The sub-industry of pesticides saw a remarkable net profit growth of 2,550% in Q2 2025 [34][33] 4. Capital Expenditure Trends - Total capital expenditure in Q2 2025 was 50.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [28][36] - The overall trend in capital expenditure has been negative, with 18 out of 33 sub-industries experiencing a decline [36] 5. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the basic chemical sector in Q2 2025 was 16.81%, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [19][35] - The net profit margin was 5.90%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.50 percentage points [19][35]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, particularly in its crop protection and organic silicon segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.07 million yuan, down 47.7% [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 4.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4%, with net profit of 35.94 million yuan, up 74.6% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit for H1 2025 was 868 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a gross margin of 10.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Segment Performance - The crop protection business generated revenue of 2.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with sales volume of 152,000 tons, up 16.0% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the crop protection segment saw revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.1% [1]. - The organic silicon segment reported revenue of 1.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, with sales volume of 132,000 tons, down 8.3% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - The average price of glyphosate showed a U-shaped trend in H1 2025, with a market price of 27,100 yuan per ton as of August 21, 2025, up 13.9% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The average price of DMC in Q2 2025 was 12,200 yuan per ton, down 11% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a valuation enhancement plan aimed at improving operational quality, competitive advantages, and shareholder returns through stable cash dividends and better investor relations [3]. - The company expects a recovery in the industry’s economic conditions, projecting net profits of 210 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 790 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 63.35 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 aligns with previous forecasts, indicating a potential rebound in its main business [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 9.775 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million CNY, down 140.60% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 4.548 billion CNY, reflecting a 42.11% decline year-on-year and a 13.02% decline quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million CNY, a significant drop of 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 27.132 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 969 million CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.82 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 63 [4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.427 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.83% [5]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial silicon sector, with a focus on cost advantages and market share expansion despite current price declines in industrial silicon and organic silicon [8]. - The company maintains normal operations in organic silicon, with expectations for price recovery due to limited new capacity and strong demand growth in the coming years [8]. - Future growth is anticipated from ongoing capacity expansions, including projects in Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are expected to enhance the company's growth potential once the industry rebounds [8].