（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 恩捷股份9月29日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，由于隔膜行业前期供过于 求，行业整体的产能利用率不高，其中头部企业好一些，因此，行业新增产能节奏较前几年明显放缓， 尤其是今年新增产能更少，而隔膜产能的释放需经历建设、客户验证、产能爬坡等，周期较长，这将大 大有益于未来整个行业的供需格局显著改善。恩捷股份的产能利用率一直以来都是行业领先态势，公司 市场地位稳固，不断提升市场占有率，随着近期下游需求走强，目前产能利用率较高，公司将全力以赴 为全球客户供应高品质的隔膜产品和服务。 ...

万凯新材 20250924 摘要 全球聚酯瓶片需求过去十年复合增速约 7.4%，2015-2022 年增长显著， 下游应用集中于软饮料和食用油，大客户包括可口可乐、农夫山泉和金 龙鱼。2024 年因农夫山泉等企业新基地投产，需求突发性集中释放， 增速约 14%。 中国聚酯瓶片出口量大，2015-2024 年复合增长率达 13.4%。2022 年受俄乌冲突影响，对俄罗斯出口增加，出口增速高达 30%。2025 年 上半年出口增速约 15%，出口是行业重要组成部分。 2021-2024 年为国内聚酯瓶片产能释放期，2025 年后无新增产能投放。 在全球需求稳健增长约 7%的背景下，2026 年起供给端不再扩张，行业 供需格局有望改善。 万凯新材海外布局旨在抢占东南亚和非洲市场，并应对反倾销压力。尼 日利亚项目预计 2026 年投产，印尼项目预计 2027 年投产，海外基地 盈利能力预计高于国内工厂。 2025 年上半年瓶片行业出现向上拐点，万凯新材一、二季度利润转正。 行业集中度提升，CR4 接近 80%，亿盛为全球最大瓶片生产商，万凯 国内排名第四。 Q&A 万凯新材的主营业务及其产能布局情况如何？ 万凯新材的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xin'an Chemical achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.07 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, but the second quarter saw a net profit of 35.94 million yuan, an increase of 74.6% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company's main business compensated for price declines with volume, leading to an improvement in gross margin on a quarterly basis [1] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 210 million, 620 million, and 790 million yuan respectively, with previous estimates being 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The price of glyphosate, a major product, exhibited a U-shaped trend, with supply and demand conditions improving continuously; as of August 21, 2025, the market price for glyphosate in East China was 27,100 yuan per ton, up 13.9% from the beginning of the year [1] - The organic silicon industry is expected to see a sustained improvement in supply-demand dynamics due to the exit of overseas production capacity and the nearing end of domestic capacity expansion, coupled with increasing downstream demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, particularly in its crop protection and organic silicon segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.07 million yuan, down 47.7% [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 4.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4%, with net profit of 35.94 million yuan, up 74.6% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit for H1 2025 was 868 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a gross margin of 10.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Segment Performance - The crop protection business generated revenue of 2.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with sales volume of 152,000 tons, up 16.0% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the crop protection segment saw revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.1% [1]. - The organic silicon segment reported revenue of 1.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, with sales volume of 132,000 tons, down 8.3% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - The average price of glyphosate showed a U-shaped trend in H1 2025, with a market price of 27,100 yuan per ton as of August 21, 2025, up 13.9% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The average price of DMC in Q2 2025 was 12,200 yuan per ton, down 11% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a valuation enhancement plan aimed at improving operational quality, competitive advantages, and shareholder returns through stable cash dividends and better investor relations [3]. - The company expects a recovery in the industry’s economic conditions, projecting net profits of 210 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 790 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant improvement in gross profit per ton of steel in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a larger decline in raw material prices compared to steel prices, along with ongoing optimization of product structure and cost reduction efforts. The industry supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a potential recovery in profitability [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 405 million yuan, an increase of 242 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 903 million yuan and 1.044 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 606 million yuan and 728 million yuan, and has added a forecast for 2027 of 1.205 billion yuan [2]. - The steel production and sales volume for the company in the first half of 2025 were 2.0513 million tons and 2.0495 million tons, respectively, both down 2.3% year-on-year. However, the gross profit per ton of steel increased to 368 yuan, a year-on-year rise of 42% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on increasing the production and sales of spring flat steel, which has a relatively higher added value, in response to market demand trends, thereby optimizing its product structure to enhance profitability [3]. - The overall commercial vehicle production and sales in China for the first half of 2025 were 2.099 million and 2.122 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 4.7% and 2.6%, indicating a mild recovery in the industry that supports the demand for automotive springs and flat steel [3]. - The company remains optimistic about the improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, as the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to gradually weaken, leading to stabilization in steel demand [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that steel production remains stable, with potential supply reductions in Tangshan due to environmental regulations, which may support steel prices [1] - The profitability of major steel products is highlighted, with gross margins for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel at 121 CNY/ton, 151 CNY/ton, and 59 CNY/ton respectively, and an overall profitability rate of 65.8% for sample steel companies [1] - Long-term policies are expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the industry, combined with a decrease in raw material prices and process optimization in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in industry profitability and significant mid-to-long-term investment value [1] Group 2 - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects listed companies in the steel sector from the Chinese A-share market to reflect the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index constituents cover major segments of the steel supply chain, reflecting the market value and development trends of the raw materials industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect C (008190) and Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect A (008189) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shougang Co., Ltd. with a target price of 4.76 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, driven by a decline in raw material prices and ongoing product structure optimization [3][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual decrease in depreciation and amortization expenses, which will further enhance profitability [12]. - The overall industry supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a recovery in profitability for the company [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 113.76 billion CNY, with a decline of 3.7% year-on-year. However, net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop by 41% to 664 million CNY in 2023, before rebounding to 1.52 billion CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 223.1% [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.09 CNY in 2023 to 0.20 CNY in 2025 [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2025 [4][13]. Product Structure Optimization - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix, with electrical steel, automotive sheets, and tinplate being the three strategic products that offer higher added value. The total output of these products is expected to reach 7.07 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [12]. - The company plans to develop medium-thick plates as its fourth strategic product, which is anticipated to become a new profit growth driver [12]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a potential stabilization in steel demand as the negative impact from the real estate sector diminishes. The government is also implementing measures to control crude steel production, which may lead to long-term profitability recovery in the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester bottle chip industry is experiencing an improvement in its structure, with price differentials recovering significantly due to the end of the expansion cycle and the effects of joint production cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global demand for polyester bottle chips is steadily increasing, with a projected growth from 20.04 million tons in 2015 to 34.35 million tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% [2]. - The pandemic led to a surge in demand for medical packaging and takeaway containers, resulting in a 28.9% increase in domestic polyester bottle chip demand in 2020 compared to 2019 [2]. - In 2021, China's bottle chip exports rose by 27% compared to 2020, driven by recovering downstream consumption and restocking needs [3]. - The supply side saw no significant capacity expansion from 2018 to 2021, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and a price differential spike to around 2000 CNY/ton [3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Outlook - The industry has entered a capacity expansion phase post-2022, with China's share of global polyester bottle chip capacity increasing from 33.35% in 2021 to 47.94% by 2024 [4]. - Major domestic producers include Yisheng (5.9 million tons), Sanfangxiang (5 million tons), China Resources Materials (3.3 million tons), and Wankai New Materials (3 million tons), with a combined market share of approximately 79% [4]. - The expansion phase is nearing its end, with only limited new capacities expected to come online by the second half of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Price Recovery and Profitability - Recent joint production cuts have led to a reduction in domestic polyester bottle chip capacity utilization to around 80%, contributing to a recovery in price differentials from 150-170 CNY/ton in late June to over 400 CNY/ton [5]. - The ongoing self-regulatory measures in the industry are expected to further enhance price differentials and profitability for related companies [5].