金融服务被赋予"前置发动机"角色。 在消费修复与服务业转型并行推进的背景下，上海正试图通过金融工具的重新定位，撬动更具弹性的服 务消费增长空间。 近日，上海市发展改革委印发《上海市促进服务业提质增效和消费提振扩容联动发展的若干措施》（下 称《若干措施》），围绕服务供给与消费需求协同发力，推出28条政策举措，覆盖金融等重点领域。其 中，金融服务被明确定位于消费升级的重要支撑，承担起连接消费端与供给端的重要功能。 与以往更多作为配套工具不同，此次政策将金融直接纳入促消费的核心抓手，提出从个人消费金融、保 险产品创新、服务业经营主体金融支持，以及消费基础设施金融支持四个维度全面发力。 不过，曾刚还指出，需要注意的是，金融支持的实际效果取决于多重因素，包括消费者收入预期、经营 主体盈利能力，以及市场需求状况等。单纯依靠金融工具难以从根本上解决消费不足问题，更多是在现 有消费意愿基础上提供便利化服务，其作用范围和效果仍需在实践中观察验证。 缓解服务业经营主体资金约束 在需求端发力的同时，《若干措施》同步强化了对服务业经营主体的金融支持力度。 政策提出，用好服务消费及养老再贷款、政府性融资担保等工具，落实服务业经营主体贷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive policy package to boost domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and financial measures, addressing the current economic challenges of strong supply and weak demand [1][2] - The focus is on promoting consumption and expanding investment as the two main lines of action, with specific policies aimed at optimizing interest subsidies for personal and business loans to stimulate consumer spending and support service industry growth [2][3] - The government plans to further optimize policies in 2026, including enhancing personal consumption loan subsidies and increasing support for service industry loans, creating a positive feedback loop between consumer demand and quality supply [3][4] Group 2 - The policy measures include a set of tools aimed at reducing financing costs for market entities, such as implementing loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises and establishing risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprise bonds [3][4] - Supporting small and micro enterprises through loan interest subsidies is crucial for stabilizing employment and ensuring consumer confidence, thereby providing a foundation for sustained economic growth [4] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the collaboration between fiscal and financial policies to effectively channel resources into key areas for expanding domestic demand and addressing economic weaknesses [4]

提升参赛和观赛者便利性 第六届亚洲沙滩运动会将在海南省三亚市举办。1月12日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍第六届亚洲沙 滩运动会筹办情况。 亚洲沙滩运动会是亚洲最高水平的沙滩运动会，三亚亚沙会是我国继海阳2012年亚沙会后第二次举办亚 沙会，也是海南省首次举办国际综合性运动会。本届亚沙会开幕式定于4月22日举办。 亚沙会组委会副主席、国家体育总局副局长李静介绍，本届亚沙会一共设14个大项、15个分项、63个小 项，其中既有游泳、帆船等奥运会、亚运会常设项目，又有台克球、沙滩卡巴迪等新兴项目。目前，场 馆布局已经确定，8个场馆群承办比赛，已经组建了8个竞赛场馆团队。 亚沙会组委会副主席、海南省副省长谢京表示，目前海南自贸港已经全岛封关运作，人员进出更加便利 高效，物资通关更加自由快捷，城市国际化水平和综合保障能力得到全面提升，这些都为亚沙会举办增 添了助力。 在人员往来便利化方面，海南自贸港免签政策已经扩展至86国，免签国人员凭护照即可便捷入境，无须 提前办签就能享受到快捷的通关服务。同时，按照国际综合性大型赛事惯例，外籍参赛人员、媒体记者 可凭护照或其他国际旅行证件和三亚亚沙会身份注册卡多次免签入境出境。 一方 ...

F F F 2026 年 01 月 12 日 申万宏源研究微信服务 再议宏微观 "温差" ? — "月度前瞻"系列专题之六 一问：2025 年底经济的"温差"？ PMI 等宏观数据走强，但生产、消费等中观指标却走弱。 温差一：2025 年底反映生产的开工指标转弱，但制造业 PMI 超季节性回升。2025 年底，高炉开 工、PTA 开工、货运量等指标有所回落；制造业 PMI 在 12 月却回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%。从行 业来看，黑色压延、化学原料等传统行业 12 月 PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA 开工表现一致；但电 气机械、医药等新兴行业 PMI 有所回升，大类行业中高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 均有改善。 温差二：消费高频在 2025 年底进一步走低，但消费品行业 PMI 却回升至景气区间。2025 年四季 度以来，汽车、家电零售量呈现回落态势，12 月以来进一步下行。但整体消费品行业 PMI 在 12 月 有所回升、较前月上行 1 个百分点至 50.4%；表现较强的行业如纺织服装服饰业、PMI 回升 4.5 个 百分点至 57.5%。 温差三：映射投资的沥青开工率、水泥出货率等未有显著改 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic focus of the national business system for 2026, highlighting the implementation of eight key areas of work to boost consumption and enhance trade and investment [1][2][3] - The meeting identified that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the role of consumption as a main driver has significantly strengthened, and the three pillars of a strong trade nation have become more solid [1] - The specific focus for 2026 includes deepening the implementation of consumption promotion actions, optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][2] Group 2 - The article outlines the need to establish a modern market and circulation system, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing the retail industry's innovative development [2] - It emphasizes the importance of creating new advantages for attracting foreign investment and enhancing the "Invest in China" brand, alongside improving the foreign investment service guarantee system [2] - The article also discusses the necessity of risk prevention and mitigation, including the establishment of a robust legal framework and trade risk prevention mechanisms to maintain supply chain resilience and security [2]

2012 31 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 元旦假期后的首周国内商品大幅上涨，工业品、农产品均出现了普涨的行情。主要原因，一是美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发市场对于大国之间资源争夺的预期； | | | 二是，美国数据好坏参半，美联储降息仍有空间；三是，国内扩大内需+反内卷政策共同推动商品价格重心的抬升。 | | 海外 | 1）ISM公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业PMI降至47.9，创2024年以来最大萎缩幅度，连续10个月低于50荣枯线，表明制造业持续收缩。12月ISM非制造业 指数升至54.4，显著高于预期与前值，反映出美国的服务业的景气度在上升，服务业的扩张一定程度上对冲了制造业疲软对整体经济的拖累。短期来看，制造业 | | | 疲软预计仍将延续，难以快速出现拐点。中长期来看，关税不确定性缓解及相关法案落地或为资本支出提供支撑，但需注意制造业持续疲软对整体经济的影响。2） | | | 美国12月ADP就业人数新增4.1万人，相比11月份减少的2.9万人有所回升，但少于预期的4.9万人，12月份就业出现反弹，主要由教育和健康服务业以及休闲和酒 | | | ...

股市快乐地享受流动性盛宴，全球股市几乎一致走好。 美国总统特朗普近日干净利索地干了两件令人瞠目的事情，结果市场反应不大。第一件事是以极短时间 和最小伤亡绑架了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，重写了主权国家之间的交往模式，但是股价（委内瑞拉股市除 外）和油价都反应不大。第二件事是提前半天在自己社交媒体透露了美国2025年12月非农就业数据的部 分内容，这是史无前例的数据泄密，美债市场反应也有限。 话题切换到2026年全球经济形势。今年看来是去年的重复。美国经济依然强劲，股市强劲、高端消费强 劲，低端消费转弱，但大而美法案所产生的退税杀到，美国经济增长不会太差，起码上半年表现应该可 以。欧洲内需严重不足，投资低迷，但是旅游业一枝独秀。日本出口很好，但是消费者感受到的却是生 活成本的高涨。 美欧日经济在2025年明显呈K形发展，强者愈强，弱者落伍。这种经济业态会在2026年继续。特朗普推 出的关税战，看来没有对美国经济，甚至贸易对手经济构成沉重打击，初始物价效应过后，也许没有人 再提了。美国支持以色列袭击加沙、伊朗，乃至亲自下场绑架委内瑞拉总统，这些是对联合国宪章的漠 视，并推翻了二战后的国际秩序，但在资本市场也没有卷起大的风 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumption industry is expected to show a moderate recovery in 2026, driven by service consumption and resilient essential consumption, with a focus on CPI-driven recovery opportunities [1][2] - In 2025, the consumption industry demonstrated characteristics of stabilization, structural optimization, and confidence restoration, supported by a 5.4% year-on-year growth in service consumption from January to November [2][3] - The shift in China's economic growth drivers from "goods consumption" to "service consumption" is anticipated, with recovery elasticity ranking as "service industry > mass goods > high-end consumption" [3] Group 2 - New consumption opportunities are emerging due to supply-side challenges like brand aging and product homogeneity, alongside demand-side changes such as generational shifts and the rise of Generation Z as a key consumer group [4] - The supply side is focusing on innovation through product rejuvenation and leveraging new channels for enhanced efficiency, while the demand side is driven by the unique consumption values of Generation Z, who are willing to pay for diverse and niche products [4]

实体经济是国民经济的命脉与国家竞争力的基石。最新发表的习近平总书记重要文章《学习好贯彻好党 的二十届四中全会精神》指出，坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，优化提升传统产业，培育壮 大新兴产业和未来产业，促进服务业优质高效发展，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。这一 重要论述既强调了实体经济作为发展着力点的重要地位，又指明了"十五五"时期壮大实体经济的实践路 径。 巩固壮大实体经济根基，还要注重服务业优质高效发展。服务业是实体经济的重要组成部分，其优质高 效发展既能推动制造业转型升级，降低生产流通成本，还能丰富消费供给、吸纳就业。一方面，聚焦生 产性服务业，推动研发设计、物流金融与制造业深度融合；另一方面，升级生活性服务业，发展养老育 幼、文旅康养等高品质业态。 巩固壮大实体经济根基，归根结底是要构建起以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。要统筹好国内国 际两个市场两种资源，坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，协同推进传统产业、新兴产业和未来产业发 展，推动中国制造向中国创造转变、中国速度向中国质量转变、中国产品向中国品牌转变。（本文来 源：经济日报 作者：金观平） 与此同时，我国实体经济发展也面临不少困难 ...