Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market lacks a strong upward driver and will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the later period, the combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and the stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4][53]. - Currently, domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking, and it may continue to do so slightly in the future, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight [4][53]. - The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. With insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking, which will support its price [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats. The rapeseed oil 01 contract rose nearly 4%, soybean oil fell more than 2%, and palm oil fell nearly 1% [3][10]. - Affected by policies such as the US renewable fuel policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and Argentina's export tariff policy, the oil and fat market fluctuated. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen, with OI - Y01 reaching a high of around 2000 [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the oil and fat futures market will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips. The combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4]. - Domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking and may continue to do so slightly, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and it will continue to destock marginally, which will support its price [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the oil and fat market is volatile. Consider buying on dips in batches [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a positive spread arbitrage strategy for OI 1 - 5, but do not chase high prices [5]. - Options: Buy call options or sell put options [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, in September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats, and the market fluctuated due to policy factors. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen [3][10]. 3.2.2 Malaysia's Palm Oil Inventory Accumulated in August, Indonesia's Production Surged in July, and the Overall Inventory Remains Tight - Malaysia: In August, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil reached 220 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production increased by 2% to 186 tons, exports decreased to 132 tons, and apparent consumption reached a record high. It is expected that the production increase in September may decline, with an estimated output of about 177 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. Exports in September are expected to be slightly higher than the 5 - year average [15]. - Indonesia: In July, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 560 tons, a 6% increase, and exports were 354 tons. The inventory slightly increased to 257 tons, remaining at a historically low level. As of July, the cumulative production from January to July was 3349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. It is expected that the annual production increase will exceed 200 tons [23]. 3.2.3 The International Soybean Oil Price Declined, and India Made Large - Scale Soybean Oil Purchases - Import: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 1238 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 389 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% [31]. - Inventory: In August, India's port inventory increased to 97 tons. Palm oil inventory increased from 45 to 54 tons, while sunflower oil and soybean oil inventories decreased to around 21 tons [31]. - Price: Recently, the increase in India's domestic edible oil prices has slowed down. Currently, India mainly has import and refining profits for sunflower oil. Due to Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs, the international soybean oil price declined, and the soybean - palm oil spread narrowed to below 0 dollars. It is rumored that India purchased 30 tons of Argentine soybean oil [31]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oils and Fats May Gradually Destock, and the Basis of Oils and Fats Will Increase Steadily - Palm oil: As of September 19, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 58.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 tons. The import profit was negative, but the purchase enthusiasm increased, and the far - month purchases were relatively large. It is expected that the combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [35][37]. - Soybean oil: In August, soybean crushing was about 899 tons, and soybean oil production was about 171 tons. In September and October, soybean arrivals and crushing are expected to decrease. As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 123.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The soybean oil market will maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider buying on dips [38]. - Rapeseed oil: In August, rapeseed crushing was about 22 tons, and rapeseed oil production was about 10 tons. As of September 19, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.61 tons, a decrease. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [39][40]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that Malaysian palm oil production may decline in September, and exports may increase slightly. The combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [53]. - Domestic soybean oil will continue to slightly destock, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. One can consider buying on dips when the price is low [53]. - Domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [53].

品种观点 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示，我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关，截至 8 月底 达到 36.25 万亿元，单月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下，债券基金规模 小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告，决定将扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体 列入出口管制管控名单，决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，PCE 物价指数 2.6%，显示 出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人， 为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌，2 年 期美债收益率回升，黄金、原油价格上涨。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续反弹，传媒板块领涨，纺织服饰 板块领跌，市场成交额 2.39 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 24 日融资余额增加 140.82 亿元至 24141.23 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东转三级菜油：现货：OI2601+250，10-11 月：OI2601+260。华东转 ...

Report Information - Reported Industry: Fats and Oils [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China converted third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 250, from October to November it's OI2601 + 260. East China converted first - grade rapeseed oil: In October it's OI2601 + 360, from November to December it's OI2601 + 380. - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: From December to January it's 01+220, from December to February it's 01+240, from January to March it's 01+200, from April to July it's 05+250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable: 18 - degree is 01+140 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree is 01+120 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse), 28 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] Core Viewpoints - The Argentine government temporarily cancelled tariffs on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion. The fats and oils market rebounded after a sharp decline. Argentina may increase soybean exports to China by 2 - 4 million tons after the tax cut, advancing supply. Domestic fats and oils supply is sufficient this year, but there may be a temporary shortage in Q1 next year. - Near - term rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, with concentrated supply. Traders are holding prices, and the basis quote is rising. Monitor China - Canada trade and rapeseed supply. - For the 01 contract, it has both upside pressure and downside support, so expect range - bound trading. For the 05 contract, consider low - buying and rolling long positions. In the long - term, fats and oils are bullish due to biodiesel policies. Monitor China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] 2. Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 6.57% and OER down 0.25% month - on - month. - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than 40,800 tons in the same period last month. - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease from August 1 - 20 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [11][13][14][21][26][27]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the oil and fat industry dated September 24, 2025, focusing on the analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8310, 8430, and 8280 respectively, with basis of 330, 210, and 180, and the 2601 contract closed at 8100 with a gain of 14 [3] - Palm oil spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9046, 9126, and 9226 respectively, with basis of -80, 0, and 100, and the 2601 contract closed at 9126 with a gain of 72 [3] - Rapeseed oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 10171, 10141, and 10141 respectively, with basis of 250, 220, and 220, and the 2601 contract closed at 9921 with a loss of 75 [3] Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 248 with a gain of 10, for palm oil is 182 with a loss of 16, and for rapeseed oil is 484 with a loss of 45 [3] Cross - Variety Spread - The 01 contract Y - P spread is -1026 with a loss of 89, OI - Y spread is 1821, and OI - P spread is 795 with a loss of 147, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.76 with a gain of 0.003 [3] Import Profit - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia has a negative profit of -230 with a CNF price of 1090 for the 10 - week ship, and the Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil has a negative profit of -559 with a FOB price of 1065 for the 10 - week ship [3] Weekly Commercial Inventory - As of the 38th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 123.6 million tons, palm oil is 58.5 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 58.6 million tons [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Industry analyst Dorab Mistry said that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% to 5500 ringgit per ton in Q1 next year due to increased biodiesel consumption in Indonesia and productivity decline in plantations [5] Domestic Market - Palm oil futures closed slightly higher. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 8.79% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and light - position long trials can be considered [5] - Soybean oil futures closed slightly higher. Last week, the soybean crushing volume was 236.04 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 113.9% year - on - year. Long trials can be considered after the negative sentiment fades [6][8] - Rapeseed oil futures closed slightly lower. Last week, the coastal crushing volume was 4.8 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the coastal inventory decreased by 3.93% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 18.7% year - on - year. The inventory continues to decline, which supports the price [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy Unilateral - The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and long trials can be considered after the sentiment fades [10] Arbitrage - Wait and see [10] Options - Consider selling put - type strategies during pullbacks [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].