十月"数据中的关键信息点 - 张瑜旬度 20251116 摘要 企业中长期贷款减少验证了生产性投资回落的判断，企业装置贷款连续 4 个月同比减少也支持此观点，预示中期物价均衡的合理性。10 月 CPI 同比转正至 0.2%，超预期，主要受食品和黄金价格影响，但这些因素 的持续性有限，年底翘尾效应或影响明年 CPI 读数。 必选消费品增速稳定，服务业零售额累计增速为 5.3%，表明广义消费 逐步恢复，但受政策影响大。若补贴政策持续加码，服务消费进一步支 持，需求端有望实现更好表现。装备制造业和生产性服务业表现突出， 成为经济增长的重要引擎。 政策对消费数据有显著影响，扣除补贴相关的耐用品和波动商品后，其 余部分增速稳定在 4%-4.2%，低于 GDP 增速。补贴政策的节奏对整体 消费数据至关重要，维持或加码补贴有望进一步提升商品与服务消费。 2026 年宏观经济展望需关注未来几个月的数据演变、补贴接续、财政 扩张政策取向以及供给侧出清与需求侧政策配合效果。这些因素将决定 2026 年的宏观判断，并影响整体价格弹性的变化。 10 月份居民贷款表现不佳，经营性个人贷款同比少增显著，表明居民层 面的弱势与经营行为更相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic data for October, highlighting three different "temperatures" of the economy: sectors that feel better than the economy, those that feel similar, and those that feel worse. It emphasizes the divergence in economic performance across different regions and industries, as well as the impact of policy support on various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Better than Economic Conditions - The productive service industry and equipment manufacturing are performing strongly, with the productive service sector's contribution to GDP rising to approximately 9.3% by the third quarter. In October, the information industry production index grew by 13%, marking eight consecutive months of growth, while the rental and business services sector grew by 8.2% [5][15]. - Equipment manufacturing saw an increase of 8% in value added in October, with significant contributions from the automotive and electronics sectors, which accounted for 42.1% of the growth in large-scale industry [6][15]. Group 2: Similar to Economic Conditions - Essential consumption showed a growth rate of 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% in the previous month, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.4% from January to October, surpassing last year's 4.0% [7][21]. - Service consumption, as measured by retail sales in the service sector, had a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% from January to October, slightly better than the previous value of 5.2% [8][21]. Group 3: Worse than Economic Conditions - Productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is declining, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.7% from January to October, down from 4.0% previously. The middle-stream investment in manufacturing has decreased significantly, with a growth rate of only 1.43% [10][25]. - Subsidized consumption, particularly in six categories of durable goods, saw a negative growth rate of -2.6% in October, a significant drop from the previous month's 3.9%. Notably, automotive and home appliance sectors experienced declines of -6.6% and -14.6%, respectively [10][25]. - The construction chain, including infrastructure and real estate investments, continued to decline, with significant drops in production rates for related materials like crude steel and cement [11][26].

Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to "seek dividends from reform" as a significant opportunity for investment, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [7][67] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8] - The "scar effect" is showing signs of retreat, evidenced by improvements in consumer behavior and a decrease in accounts receivable growth among enterprises [15][21] Group 2 - The economic recovery is characterized as "atypical," with a transition from "confidence building" to recovery, driven by deepening domestic demand policies and a reduction in the "crowding out effect" of debt [4][5] - Export resilience is expected to continue, with a shift in the structure of exports towards high-value-added products, despite a decrease in the share of exports to the US [21][22] - The focus on advanced manufacturing as a backbone and the upgrading of traditional sectors are highlighted as key strategies for economic adjustment [74][77] Group 3 - The 2026 year is anticipated to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with significant opportunities arising from accelerated reform processes [3][67] - The emphasis on "self-reliance" and "extraordinary measures to seize high ground" in technology modernization is crucial for supporting China's modernization efforts [77][83] - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified national market, social security system reforms, and financial and tax reforms, all aimed at enhancing economic resilience and sustainability [83][84]

国家统计局最新数据显示，10月份国民经济延续总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势，生产供给基本稳定， 就业形势总体稳固，居民消费价格呈现回暖迹象，新动能持续积累壮大。 本月经济数据亦反映出总量增速有所放缓。具体来看，10月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 4.9%，较前值6.5%有所回落；出口同比下降1.1%，较上月8.3%的增速明显回落；社会消费品零售总额 同比增长2.9%，略低于前值3.0%。这些变化受季节性波动、基数效应、竞争秩序规范以及前期"抢出 口"等因素共同影响，并不改变中国经济长期向好的基本趋势。 物价数据回暖是本月最积极的变化。居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比由上月的下降0.3%转为上涨0.2%，显 示内需逐步恢复。尤其值得注意的是，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅已连续六个月扩 大。工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.1%，降幅连续三个月收窄，环比则由降转升，微涨0.1%，反 映工业部门供需关系正在改善。 物价回升主要受益于假期消费带动与部分工业品价格企稳。国庆、中秋双节推动出行与住宿需求上升， 宾馆住宿、飞机票和旅游价格环比分别上涨8.6%、4.5%和2.5%，假日餐饮需求也带动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of stimulating private investment to enhance economic activity, stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, highlighting the recent measures introduced by the State Council to promote private investment in key sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The State Council's recent document outlines 13 targeted policy measures aimed at encouraging private capital participation in key projects such as railways and nuclear power, including specific shareholding requirements [3][6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with 83 projects already listed, covering various sectors and expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new investments [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of the year, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 371.535 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year decline, with private fixed asset investment down 3.1% [7]. - However, excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 2.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing sectors showing positive growth rates of 7% and 3.2%, respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The NDRC acknowledges existing challenges in private investment, including macroeconomic factors and market conditions, and emphasizes the need for targeted measures to enhance investment effectiveness [9][10]. - The new measures aim to lower barriers for private capital in traditional sectors like energy and railways, promoting a more open and fair investment environment [9][10]. Group 4: Focus on Service Industry - The measures also aim to eliminate unreasonable entry restrictions in the service industry, encouraging private capital to invest in high-value sectors such as industrial design and digital transformation [12][13]. - The NDRC highlights the potential for private investment in the service industry, which is seen as crucial for economic development and innovation [13][14]. Group 5: Financial Support - The measures emphasize the coordination of investment, fiscal, and financial policies to enhance the effectiveness of private investment promotion [16][17]. - The NDRC plans to utilize various financial tools to support eligible private investment projects, including the issuance of infrastructure REITs to broaden financing channels [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China will implement multiple measures to promote the development of private investment [2] - The government will utilize central budget investments to actively support eligible private investment projects [2] - A national investment and financing comprehensive service platform will be established to enhance connectivity with national financing credit service platforms, aiming to provide more precise credit resources to private enterprises [2] Group 2 - There will be increased support for private capital to flow into high-value service industries, with a focus on encouraging private enterprises to participate in key projects in the productive service sector [2] - The energy sector will see enhanced policies to attract private capital, including the establishment of long-term mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major projects like nuclear power and hydropower [2] - Continuous deepening of energy market reforms will be pursued, with efforts to build a unified national energy market system to create a more favorable environment for private investment in energy [2] Group 3 - Digital transformation will be leveraged to further promote private investment, with the construction of a comprehensive digital empowerment platform [2] - The initiative aims to drive small and medium-sized enterprises into the transformation ecosystem through collaborative transformation along the industrial chain, thereby expanding new effective investment spaces [2]

在创新驱动发展战略引领下，我国正着力强化企业科技创新主体地位，推动创新资源向优质企业集聚， 实现科技与产业创新的深度融合。《若干措施》提出，引导民间资本有序参与低空经济基础设施建设， 并在商业航天频率许可、发射审批等环节对民间资本项目一视同仁，优化卫星通信业务准入政策。同 时，加快公布并向民营企业开放国家重大科研基础设施清单，支持有能力的民营企业牵头承担国家重大 技术攻关任务。 "十五五"规划建议将服务业置于更加突出的战略位置，强调推动服务业提质增效，扩大优质消费品和服 务供给，以放宽准入和业态融合为抓手，扩大服务消费和服务业开放。作为服务业的绝对主力，民营企 业的深度参与是服务业高质量发展的关键前提。《若干措施》明确要求清理不合理的服务业准入限制， 严禁在环保、安全、质检等领域违规增设门槛，并特别提出"支持民间资本更多投向工业设计、共性技 术服务、检验检测、质量认证、数字化转型等生产性服务业"。 "十五五"期间，我国还将大力推进全国统一大市场建设，破除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采 购等环节的隐性壁垒，规范地方政府经济行为，从法律制度层面保障民营企业平等使用生产要素、公平 参与市场竞争、合法权益得到有 ...

（原标题：重大信号密集释放 民企发展、民间投资迎来新拐点和大升级） 关鹏表示，这项政策对鼓励支持民间资本参与重点领域项目建设提出了明确要求，充分释放了促进民间 投资发展的信号。文件聚焦重点领域，明确提到的需报国家审批（核准）的铁路、核电等领域，政策范 围是明确的。这些领域的项目主要为基础性、公益性、长远性项目，其中有些项目具有一定收益，民间 资本有参与意愿，政策主要针对这类具有一定收益的项目而言。在项目的前期工作阶段，就要研究论证 引入民间资本事宜，为民间资本提供更多参与机会。考虑到不同领域的具体项目差异较大，民营企业参 与意愿和能力也各有不同，因此在每一个重大项目引入民间资本时，应结合项目实际、民营企业参与意 愿、有关政策要求等确定具体项目持股比例，强调结合实际。经过充分论证后，对于一些具备条件的项 目，持股比例可在10%以上。比如近年来，持续推动核电等重大项目引入民间资本，有的核电项目民企 最高参股比例已达20%。 两天内，一项新政策、一场发布会、一场座谈会，围绕民营企业、民间投资发展，积极的政策信号密集 释放。 11月11日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕"十五五"规划《纲要》编制 ...

《若干措施》的一大突破在于，不再停留于以往政策文件中"鼓励""支持""引导"等原则性表述，而是明 确列出民间资本可进入的重点领域，并对具备条件的项目提出量化持股比例要求，将民间投资从"可选 项"升级为"应选项"，显著增强了政策的刚性和可操作性。例如，在铁路、核电、水电、跨省跨区直流 输电通道、油气管道、液化天然气接收储运设施、供水等领域，符合条件的项目可允许民间资本持股比 例在10%以上。 民营企业作为我国经济体系中最具活力的组成部分，在促进就业、拉动增长、推动科技创新、激发市场 活力等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。数据显示，目前国家高新技术企业中，民营企业数量超过42万家， 占比达92%以上；民营企业贡献了超过80%的城镇就业岗位和65%的专利发明。这种创新与就业的双重 驱动，正在深刻重塑中国经济的质量与韧性。 因此，近日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（简称"十五 五"规划建议）再次强调坚持"两个毫不动摇"，促进各类所有制经济优势互补、共同发展。规划还明确 提出，要完善民营企业参与重大项目建设长效机制，激发民间投资活力、提高民间投资比重，增强市场 主导的有效投资增长动力。 在 ...