↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 聪明投资者 来源：雪球 " 在风浪中前行的人 ， 先要把自己 ' 绑在桅杆上 ' 。 " 它的投资决策 ， 正在深刻影响着全球企业行为 。 但反过来 ， 其庞大的身形以及与全球经济休戚与共的投资触角 ， 也很难避开起于微末的 " 蝴 蝶翅膀 " ， 更别说频率提升的各种巨浪 。 坦根说 ， 当市场剧烈波动时 ， 这只基金按照预设机制自动再平衡 ： 卖出债券 、 买入股票 。 不是因为判断 ， 而是因为规则 。 正是这套纪律 ， 使基金在过去三十年中跨越无数不确定性 ， 实现了年化6%–7%的复合回报 。 考虑到这是一只穿越世代的养老基金 ， 这样复利 效果还是惊人的 。 坦根还直言 ， " 假设你在一年前告诉我 ， 一年后的世界会出现这些关税 、 这里发生冲突 、 那里局势恶化 ， 然后让我基于这些信息 ， 对一个 包含科技龙头 、 工程公司和消费品公司的投资组合做出调整 …… 最可能的结果只会是 ： 非常糟糕 。 战术性的判断真的极其困难 。 " 目前挪威央行主权基金70%配置 ...

出品｜虎嗅科技组 作者｜陈伊凡 编辑｜苗正卿 头图｜视觉中国 这听起来似乎平平无奇，但如果知道硬件行业的残酷，就会明白这六个字的份量。在硬件创业的图谱 中，存在一个著名的"死亡之谷"，一个从原型Demo到大规模量产之间的灰色地带，诸多公司死在谷 底。 Voxdale的角色，就是帮助创新者、大公司以及大学，在他的工程实验室里填平这道鸿沟。他们不仅 关注产品是否美观，更关注能否用合理的成本把它造出来。 这正是Tim来到中国的原因。在他看来，中国已是全球硬件开发全链路中一个不可或缺的"变量"。 "过去15到20年，我们一直与中国公司紧密合作。如果你想把产品从1做到100万，你离不开中 国。"Tim向我展示了他手腕上的华米（Amazfit）智能手表——这款售价仅250欧元的中国产品，提 供了与Apple Watch几无二致的功能体验。 "归根结底，任何硬件产品只关乎两件事：规模化和降低成本"，Tim说，"从构思硬件产品的第一刻 起，我们就必须开始焦虑：这东西要生产多少？用什么技术才能立刻实现大规模制造？" 这次中国之行是他的第一天。在无锡国际人才港与数家中国AI初创企业交流后，他看到了一种他在 欧洲久违的劲头——一群 ...

以下文章来源于硬氪 ，作者硬氪团队 硬氪 . 专注全球化、硬科技报道。36kr旗下官方账号。 不少投资人每两周就要逃离自己所在的寒冷城市。他们占领大疆天空之城旁的咖啡馆，或者蹲守在各栋大楼前厅、卫生间，在某个大厂高管还没离职时， 就预定下公司的投资份额。 在南方有些刺目的阳光下，你手上的咖啡还没喝完，就旁听完了几个项目的"融资进展"、"业务介绍"。那些坐满年轻人的卡座会让人有种奇特的对照，似 乎回到10年前沸腾的北京中关村大街。 到了晚上，他们结束加班，又聚在小酒馆。这里少有闲谈，飘在房间里的话题，仍然是一百个硬件赛道的创业、融资机会。 图源/Nano Banana制作 很多年中，硬件赛道一直被投资人归到"看不懂"的类别。这是门细水长流的生意，产线硬投入高、回报周期长，也不可能有软件公司那样惊人的增速。说 到底，它讲不出性感、宏大的故事。哪怕到现在加上AI，投资硬件也是胜算极低的"赌博"。 忽如其来的繁荣一定伴随着泡沫。但起码在此时，硬件创业者们有了试错的机会。在当下显得糟糕甚至荒诞的项目中，总会诞生几家足以定义品类的公 司。 日月之行，若出其中； 星汉灿烂，若出其里。 文 ｜ 硬氪团队 来源｜ 硬氪（ID： ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs views Chinese stocks as a key focus area within its global asset allocation strategy for 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market [1] - The firm anticipates a sustained "slow bull" market in China, benefiting insurance companies' allocation to equity assets, which is expected to enhance overall investment returns [1] - The current global economic environment, characterized by no recession in the U.S. and ample liquidity, historically favors stock markets [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth Drivers - Goldman Sachs identifies three main themes driving earnings growth in China: AI, overseas expansion, and anti-involution [4][5] - AI is projected to contribute approximately 2% to 3% annual earnings growth for the entire market over the next 3 to 5 years as Chinese tech companies benefit from its application [4] - The overseas revenue share for Chinese companies is currently around 16%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the 28% for S&P 500 companies [5] Group 3: Valuation and Market Performance - The MSCI China Index's current dynamic P/E ratio is approximately 13, aligning with historical averages, while the CSI 300 Index is around 15, also near its historical median [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts an overall return range of 15% to 20% for the year, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] - The firm expects a substantial inflow of capital into the stock market, estimating around $200 billion in southbound capital flow into Hong Kong stocks this year [6] Group 4: Investment Themes and Strategies - Goldman Sachs maintains a high allocation to AI-related sectors, including software, internet, and hardware, while also favoring materials and insurance [8] - The firm emphasizes the importance of shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which have proven effective in other markets [8][9] - The insurance sector is highlighted as a favorable investment due to its stable returns and potential for higher equity asset allocation in a slow bull market [9] Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - There is a growing interest among overseas investors in the Chinese market, although actual investment actions have yet to materialize [6][7] - The firm notes that personal investors currently allocate only about 10% of their assets to stocks, suggesting a potential shift towards higher equity allocation if the market enters a sustained bull phase [10] - The anticipated improvement in inflation expectations may further drive demand for risk assets among individual investors [10]

Group 1 - The forum held during CES 2026 focused on the theme "Silicon Valley Innovation × Asian Industrial Strength × Global Capital Allocation," bringing together industry leaders, investors, and entrepreneurs to discuss key topics such as the AI bubble, future of AI, hardware innovation, software globalization, and Chinese companies going global [1][20] - Silicon Landing, the organizer of the forum, aims to connect the innovative momentum of Silicon Valley, the industrial strength of Asia, and the wisdom of global capital allocation to promote the practical application of cutting-edge technology [3][20] Group 2 - The essence of AI is capability democratization, allowing high-quality services to be scaled at low costs, breaking resource monopolies, with China's advantage lying in its vast scenarios and data [5][22] - AI hardware globalization faces challenges such as research and development efficiency, market entry timing, and data compliance, with a strong emphasis on embedding data security and privacy compliance into product design from the outset [7][24] Group 3 - Differences in capital sources lead to fundamentally different investment logic between the US and China, with US venture capital focusing on disruptive technology and dreams, while Chinese venture capital emphasizes hard technology and industrial security [8][25] - The competitive edge of Chinese entrepreneurs has extended from application layers to infrastructure and hard technology, requiring a global team to have leading AI cognition, vertical experience, and the determination of founders [8][25][26] Group 4 - The hardware forum emphasized the need for innovation to transition from concept to global scale, advocating for a return to first principles in hardware investment and the importance of precise product definition for startups [11][28] - The software ecosystem is being reshaped as AI agents evolve from tools to core workflow components, with a focus on delivering business results rather than just functionalities [13][30] Group 5 - The discussion on going global highlighted the importance of respecting local market rhythms and conducting in-depth on-site insights, with emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa presenting significant opportunities [16][33] - Successful international expansion requires a dynamic balance of supply and demand based on actual market conditions, with a focus on building operational depth and user loyalty in chosen niches before entering mainstream markets [16][33]

对于一季度A股市场的展望，孟磊表示瑞银证券对此持乐观看法，认为A股历来有一个传统的说法为"春 季躁动"，即整体流动性偏向于宽松，整体市场的股票估值出现上行，目前在演绎的行情有可能跟"春季 躁动"有一定的关联性。从全球市场来说，开年以来，全球股票市场都处在上行。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)1月13日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊在第二十六届瑞银大中华研讨会上表 示，2026年A股盈利同比增长预计将加速至8%，更明确的政策支持与股市结构性改革有望助力市场估 值提升，市场对盈利增长的一致预期迎来上修。 当前个人投资者情绪并未过热，主动型公募基金新发规模或温和复苏。"我们更多观察到中长线资金入 市的迹象，从主动型公募基金的历史来看，它的发行情况是落后于募资、落后于股价的，股价上涨才会 有更多的钱进股票市场。我们看到的情况是在过去6个月当中，整体的基金发行份额在温和地复苏。"孟 磊表示。 长线资金通过ETF持续入市A股。孟磊介绍，例如，人工智能等主题的相关ETF获得非常明显的资金进 入，被动资金的流入推动行业龙头跑赢市场。此外，私募证券投资基金份额的提升推升小盘股估值，保 险资金有望持续入市。 行业配置上，孟磊表示，科技创 ...

Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs upgrades the investment rating for the Asia-Pacific region, specifically the MX APJ index, with a 12-month target raised to 825 points, indicating a 14% price return in USD and a total return of 17% [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as constructive, with U.S. GDP growth expected to exceed market consensus at 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates twice before mid-year, which typically benefits Asian markets [3][4]. - Earnings growth for 2026 is projected to be strong, increasing from 10% to 19%, with significant contributions from North Asia, India, and cyclical sectors [1][5]. - Valuations are considered reasonable but slightly high, with a forecasted slight compression from 15x to 14.6x, indicating that corporate earnings will be the primary driver of stock market returns [6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% and AEG growth around 4.8%. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, leading to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for Asian markets [3][4]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to rise significantly, with overall growth expected to reach 19%. The recovery in quarterly earnings is attributed to easing base effects, and the ERI indicator suggests a positive outlook for earnings revisions [5]. Valuation Perspective - Current valuations are slightly above historical averages, with the region's price-to-earnings ratio at 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term mean. Earnings will be crucial for driving stock market returns this year [6]. Fund Flow Trends - There has been a significant outflow of approximately $100 billion from overseas investors, with current mutual fund allocations 75 basis points below benchmarks, indicating potential for rebuilding positions in the region [7][8]. Sector and Industry Focus - Investment in large-scale enterprises is expected to grow by 34% to approximately $550 billion, benefiting sectors such as hardware, semiconductors, and AI. The "Asian Energy Upgrade" theme is highlighted, focusing on nuclear power, electricity, and renewable energy [9]. - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China presents opportunities for U.S. re-industrialization, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing investments in response to U.S. demand [10]. China Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain robust, with the MSCI China index projected to rise by 15%-17% and the CSI 300 index by about 10%. Profit growth is forecasted to increase significantly from 4% to 14% [13][14]. India Market Strategy - The Indian market rating has been upgraded to "overweight," with expected earnings growth of around 15%. Key sectors include finance, consumer goods, and industrials, particularly in defense and energy security [16][19].

Group 1 - Global capital allocation towards Chinese assets has surged since the beginning of 2026, with foreign investments showing strong confidence in the resilience and value of the Chinese economy [1] - Morgan Stanley has invested over 1 billion HKD in multiple Hong Kong-listed companies, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards the market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market will expand further in 2026, driven more by profit growth rather than mere valuation increases, with internet and hardware companies expected to see around 20% annual profit growth [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities attributes the market excitement at the start of 2026 to a concentration of previously cautious funds entering the market, indicating a "desire for growth" among investors [4] - The current market heat is considered high, but sentiment indicators have not shown signs of weakening, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on structural investment opportunities and suggest that investors take advantage of dips in the market, particularly before the important window for 2025 annual performance forecasts [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs projects a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index by 2026, maintaining an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares [1] - The report highlights a potential 14% growth in profits for Chinese listed companies in 2026, significantly better than the single-digit growth expected in 2025, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and international expansion of listed companies [1] - The favorable risk-reward ratio for the Chinese stock market is indicated by low to mid-single-digit earnings growth rates, moderate valuations, and generally low levels of investor holdings [1] Group 2 - Internet and hardware companies are expected to achieve approximately 20% annual profit growth in 2026 due to the monetization of AI and advancements in AI-related capital expenditures [3] - The automotive sector's profits are predicted to double from low levels in 2025, with expected price-to-earnings ratios of 12.4 times for the next 12 months and 14.5 times for the CSI 300 Index, approaching reasonable valuation levels of around 13 times and 15 times [3] - Southbound capital inflows are anticipated to reach $200 billion, surpassing the record $180 billion net inflow in 2025, with domestic asset reallocation potentially bringing an additional 3 trillion RMB to the Hong Kong stock market [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to rise by 20% and 12% respectively this year, with "overweight" ratings on A-shares and H-shares [1] - The anticipated market gains will be driven entirely by earnings growth, projected to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, supported by AI, "going out" strategies, and anti-involution policies [1] - The current market valuation is deemed reasonable, with potential upside from AI monetization, policy stimulus, and liquidity exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of southbound funds is predicted to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.558 trillion HKD), setting a new historical high compared to 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025 [1] - Domestic asset reallocation may accelerate, potentially bringing an incremental capital of about 3 trillion RMB to the stock market [1] - Total dividends and share buybacks this year may approach 4 trillion RMB, while foreign long-term investors might reduce their selling of Chinese stocks, indicating a potential buying scale of about $10 billion (approximately 79 billion HKD) [1] Group 3 - Retail investors in mainland China are still far from optimal efficiency, with real estate and cash comprising 54% and 28% of their asset allocation, while stocks only account for 11% [2] - The decline in real interest rates and high expected returns from stocks may drive significant funds from cash into the stock market [2] - Continuous disposable income and financial capital growth suggest over 14 trillion RMB of "new funds" will seek investment opportunities annually [2] Group 4 - The firm remains optimistic about the AI theme, upgrading the hardware sector rating to "overweight," aligning it with the internet sector [2] - In the consumer sector, preference is given to services over goods, with a focus on the materials industry, while maintaining an "overweight" rating on the insurance sector [2]