Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the equity market had a volume - driven rally. The real estate, steel, and building materials sectors were strong, while the banking sector declined. The bond market adjusted, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.67% on Friday, up 2.2bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market mostly rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.76% for the week [1][8][9]. - In the short term, convertible bond supply may significantly shrink. The follow - up momentum of the convertible bond market has weakened, and valuations have been further compressed. It is recommended to focus on balanced convertible bonds or high - price, low - premium and non - redeemable in the short - term equity - biased varieties. For those with high requirements for drawdown, consider reducing positions [2][17]. - With the disclosure of mid - year report performance forecasts, attention should be paid to sectors such as consumer goods, technology, power grid equipment, and innovation drugs. Also, be cautious about bonds with a high proportion of exports to the US [3][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/7/7 - 2025/7/11) - **Stock Market**: The equity market rose with volume. Real estate, steel, and building materials sectors performed well due to policy expectations and "anti - involution" themes. The non - banking sector was strong driven by the stablecoin theme, while the banking sector declined. Different sectors showed different performances on each trading day [8]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market adjusted. Factors such as the postponement of Trump's equal - tariff effective date, the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500, and real estate policy rumors suppressed bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.67% on Friday, up 2.2bp from the previous week [1][9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.76% for the week, the median price rose by 0.95%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 2.07%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased by 1.29% compared with the previous week. Sectors like non - banking finance, coal, and computer in the convertible bond market led the gains, while social services, banking, and automotive sectors lagged. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3405.76 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 681.15 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [9][12][15]. Viewpoints and Strategies (2025/7/14 - 2025/7/18) - **Supply Outlook**: Convertible bond supply may significantly shrink in the short term. The approval of the "potential new bond" Fudan Microelectronics expired, and there are only 5 issues in the pending - issuance list that have passed the listing committee, with a total scale of less than 5 billion yuan. Also, the delisting of existing bonds is accelerating [2][17]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Due to the intensified supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to focus on balanced convertible bonds that can quickly consume the premium rate with high - volatility underlying stocks or high - price, low - premium and non - redeemable in the short - term equity - biased varieties. Consider reducing positions for those with high drawdown requirements [2][17]. - **Sector Focus**: Pay attention to sectors such as consumer goods (appliances, auto parts, two - wheeled vehicles), technology (PCB, copper - clad laminates, data center power supplies), power grid equipment, sea - wind power, energy storage, innovation drugs, and chemical pharmaceuticals. Be cautious about bonds with a high proportion of exports to the US [3][18]. Valuation Overview - As of July 11, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different parity intervals are at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with a parity below 70 yuan is - 1.04%, at the 4%/0% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 33.92%, at the 64%/45% percentile since 2010/2021, and the difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is - 13.38%, at the 27%/32% percentile since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (2025/7/7 - 2025/7/11)**: Guanghe Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Luwei and Huachen Convertible Bonds were listed. Guanghe Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan, is for the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant Project. Luwei Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 615 million yuan, is mainly for semiconductor and high - precision flat - panel display mask expansion projects. Huachen Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 460 million yuan, is for new - energy power equipment manufacturing and digital factory construction projects [27][28][29]. - **Next Week (2025/7/14 - 2025/7/18)**: Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds will be listed. Xizhen Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 520 million yuan, is for the Langfang Zhenhua Automobile Parts Project. Yongxi Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 1.165 billion yuan, is for multi - dimensional heterogeneous advanced packaging technology R & D and industrialization projects [30][31]. - **Overall Pending Issuance**: As of July 11, there are 75 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 116.32 billion yuan, including 2 issues approved for registration (total scale of 2.11 billion yuan) and 3 issues passed by the listing committee (total scale of 2.62 billion yuan) [32].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the national CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [1][3] - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption [1][4] - The CPI's month-on-month decline was 0.1%, with urban areas also experiencing a 0.1% decrease, while rural areas remained stable [4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The national PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - Industrial producer purchase prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [4][5] - The PPI's decline is expected to persist due to insufficient industrial demand, but improvements in supply-demand relationships and macroeconomic policies may stabilize prices [5][7] Group 3: Policy Implications - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% this year, indicating potential for further fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate demand and improve price performance [4][7] - Policies targeting the reduction of "involutionary competition" are anticipated to enhance supply-demand structures, supporting price increases in various sectors [7] - Supply-side structural reforms are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues, potentially boosting industrial prices and improving corporate profitability [7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline that lasted for four consecutive months [3][9] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw material manufacturing and pressures in export-oriented industries [6][7] - Some industries showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic market improvements and consumption policies [7][6] Group 3: Price Changes by Category - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable declines in pork prices by 8.5% and egg prices by 7.7% [9][17] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 0.5% [9][10] - Among various categories, prices for durable goods and entertainment-related items showed increases, reflecting ongoing consumer demand [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year in June, ending a four-month downward trend, influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.1% [3]. - The decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year, reducing its downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [3]. - International commodity price fluctuations led to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing about 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, marking a new high in nearly 14 months [3]. PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a consistent decline in June, but some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [8]. - The construction of a unified national market and increased efforts to combat disorderly low-price competition are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors [8]. - Prices in the automotive sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, have shown signs of recovery, with respective year-on-year declines narrowing [8]. Consumer Demand and Living Costs - The demand for housing rentals has increased during the graduation season, leading to a 0.1% rise in rental prices [6]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a rise in prices for daily necessities and clothing, with general daily goods and clothing prices increasing by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively [9]. - High-tech industries are also seeing price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, ending four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [3][4]. CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% [4]. - Energy prices saw a reduced decline of 1.0 percentage points, contributing to a lesser downward impact on the CPI [4]. - Gold and platinum jewelry prices increased significantly, by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, collectively contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [4]. - Food prices experienced a slight narrowing in their decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and beef prices turning to an increase of 2.7% after 28 months of decline [4]. PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous month [7]. - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw materials and increased green energy leading to lower energy prices [7][8]. - The construction sector faced challenges due to weather conditions, impacting the prices of black metal and non-metal mineral products, which fell by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively [8]. - Export-oriented industries are under pressure, with prices in the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector declining by 0.4% [8]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of industrial product prices will largely depend on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustment policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector [9]. - The government aims to promote a reasonable recovery in price levels, which will facilitate fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment [10].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as in March [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening compared to March, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][2] - Energy prices fell by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] Group 2: Food and Service Prices - Food prices saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is above seasonal levels; beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month due to reduced imports [2] - Travel service prices increased significantly, with airfares rising by 13.5%, vehicle rental fees by 7.3%, hotel accommodation by 4.5%, and tourism prices by 3.1% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating the gradual effect of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [2] Group 3: High-Tech Industry Impact - The development of high-tech industries, such as smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing, has led to price increases in related sectors, with wearable device manufacturing prices rising by 3.0% year-on-year [3] - The diversification of trade and market expansion has resulted in price increases or reduced declines in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which saw a 2.7% year-on-year price increase [3] - Recent financial support policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to provide significant support for future price trends [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

Macro Strategy - The current market is entering a risk-off phase, with a potential shift back to growth after a period of risk-on behavior. The rotation pattern resembles that of early 2024 and late 2024, with initial strength in the TMT sector, followed by a rotation to upstream resources and finance, and then a short-term rebound in consumption and manufacturing sectors [1][10][11] - The macroeconomic fundamentals have not fundamentally changed compared to late 2024 and March 2025, suggesting that future industry rotation may continue to be driven by capital behavior. A defensive mode is recommended in the short term, focusing on stable sectors such as banks, utilities, and leading home appliance companies [1][11] Industry Insights - QuantumScape (QS) has successfully integrated its advanced Cobra membrane technology into its baseline battery production, marking a significant step towards scaling production capacity. The Cobra process improves thermal treatment speed by approximately 25 times and allows for more efficient production, representing a major advancement in ceramic membrane manufacturing [3][14] - QS's QSE-5 B solid-state battery cells have recently entered small-scale production, with deliveries to select automotive customers. The introduction of the Cobra membrane is expected to accelerate the trial and adoption of QS's B1 samples [3][14] - Domestic lithium battery equipment manufacturers have a significant first-mover advantage in the solid-state battery equipment sector, with several companies successfully covering the entire manufacturing process. In 2024, multiple equipment manufacturers have received orders exceeding 100 million yuan, positioning them to benefit from the industrialization of solid-state batteries [5][14] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as XianDao Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like LianYing Laser, and formation and capacity equipment providers like HangKe Technology. Attention is also drawn to dry/wet electrode equipment manufacturers and other related companies [5][14] - For ZhongAn Online, the company has initiated an H-share placement to enhance its capital base and support growth in its insurance and technology sectors. The expected net proceeds from the placement are approximately 39.96 billion HKD, which will bolster its financial strength and support its growth trajectory [7][17][18] - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is undergoing a transformation into wealth management and financial technology, with significant growth expected in net profit from 2025 to 2027. The company is leveraging its acquisition of Dazhihui to enhance its competitive edge in the financial services market [9][19]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-10 5 月 CPI 维持回落，PPI 降幅走扩 ——宏观通胀系列九 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 9 日，国家统计局公布数据显示： 2025年 5月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 0.1%。其中，城市持平，农村下降 0.4%； 食品价格下降 0.4%，非食品价格持平；消费品价格下降 0.5%，服务价格上涨 0.5%。 1—5 月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降 0.1%。 2025 年 5 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 3.3%，环比下降 0.4%；工业生产 者购进价格同比下降 3.6%，环比下降 0.6%。1—5 月平均，工业生产者出厂价格和购 进价格比上年同期均下降 2.6%。 核心观点 ■ 5 月 CPI 同比微降，PPI 降幅走扩 CPI：2025 年 5 月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比微降 0.1%，能源价格受国际油价下行 影响环比降 1.7%，贡献近七成降幅；食品价格因鲜菜季节性供应增加降 0. ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued impact of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, significantly affecting the overall CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - PPI data showed marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and some manufacturing prices narrowing their year-on-year decline [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Economic analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price index, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to previous consumption-boosting policies [2]