Core Insights - KAYOU, a leading company in China's pan-entertainment and cultural innovation sector, is entering the U.S. market, which is crucial for its global strategy [1] Group 1: Market Entry - The U.S. is the largest collectible card market globally, making it a key component of KAYOU's international expansion [1] - KAYOU plans to launch three major IP card series, including "My Little Pony," "Naruto," and "tokidoki," at the New York Comic Con in October [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - KAYOU's competitive edge stems from its comprehensive industry chain layout, covering R&D and manufacturing, which ensures product innovation and quality [1] - The company has a mature IP operation system, successfully managing over 70 well-known IPs in China, including global collaborations and original developments [1] - KAYOU excels in content re-creation to enrich the IP's connotation [1] Group 3: Sales Channels - The company plans to sell its products through multiple online and offline channels, including Walmart, Amazon, Target, Gamestop, Barnes & Noble, TikTok Shop, and live e-commerce brand Crossing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market, particularly with brands like Pokémon, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where inflated prices eventually led to market collapse [2][26]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, with companies like Kai Zhi Le International strategically entering the market through partnerships with top IPs like Pokémon [2][3]. - The Pokémon brand, established in the last century, has a significant cross-generational influence, attracting both younger and older consumers [4][6]. - The market is shifting from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [6][8]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value Pokémon cards are being auctioned for prices that can exceed hundreds of thousands of dollars, with some cards being compared to the value of real estate [10][21]. - The secondary market for cards is heavily influenced by rarity and condition, with professional grading institutions playing a crucial role in determining value [11][12]. - There is a growing trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets, with some cards showing annual returns that surpass traditional financial assets [14][21]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The consumer base for collectible cards is primarily composed of teenagers and young adults, with younger players focusing on gameplay and older players interested in trading and investment [14][19]. - The addictive nature of card collecting and trading can lead to irrational consumer behavior, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the market [21][23]. - The rise of social media and the Z generation's consumption habits are driving the rapid growth of the card market, creating a closed loop of "discover-purchase-share" [19][21]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Risks - The market faces risks from irrational consumer spending, IP expiration, and counterfeit products, which could undermine the growth of the collectible card industry [21][24]. - Regulatory measures are needed to protect consumer rights and ensure market stability, as the current landscape lacks sufficient oversight [23][24]. - The potential for a speculative bubble similar to the tulip crisis remains a concern, with the market needing to return to rational pricing to avoid a collapse [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market is drawing parallels to historical speculative bubbles, such as the tulip mania of 1637, raising concerns about the sustainability of high prices and the potential for a market correction [3][32]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly with the entry of major IPs like Pokémon, which has led to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this space, such as Kaizhi Le International [5][10]. - The market is seeing a shift from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [7][10]. - The demand for collectible cards is driven by a mix of youth engagement and the purchasing power of middle-aged consumers, indicating a broadening consumer base [5][9]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value cards, particularly rare Pokémon cards, are fetching prices that can rival real estate, with some cards auctioned for tens of thousands of dollars [14][18]. - The secondary market for cards is influenced by various factors, including rarity, condition, and market trends, with some cards experiencing significant price appreciation [13][18]. - The trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets is emerging, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][30]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - There are concerns about irrational consumer behavior, particularly the addictive nature of card collecting and the potential for significant financial losses [26][27]. - The lack of regulatory oversight and the prevalence of counterfeit products pose risks to consumers and the overall market integrity [29][32]. - The market is currently characterized by a primary focus on entertainment and collection, with investment aspects still in a nascent stage [18][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future growth of the collectible card market will depend on consumer demand, innovation in card design, and the establishment of a more structured market environment [9][30]. - The potential for digital integration, such as NFTs, could enhance the value and security of collectible cards, addressing some of the current market vulnerabilities [16][32]. - The industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences and the lifecycle of IPs to maintain relevance and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the trading card market, particularly collectible cards, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where prices may be artificially inflated and could lead to significant losses for investors [1][38]. Industry Overview - The collectible card market is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Pokémon opening official card venues in major cities, leading to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this sector, such as Kai Zhi Le International [2][8]. - The market is characterized by a diverse consumer base, with younger audiences drawn to the gameplay and older consumers focusing on investment opportunities [5][18]. - The rise of collectible cards is attributed to the increasing influence of IPs (Intellectual Properties) and the growing trend of experiential consumption among younger generations [24][28]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for cards, particularly rare and limited editions, has seen prices soar, with some cards fetching prices comparable to real estate [11][18]. - The trading card industry is evolving, with companies exploring partnerships with various IPs and expanding their product offerings to include both traditional and digital formats [8][19]. - The market is also witnessing a shift towards investment and collection, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][28]. Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks from irrational consumer behavior, expiration of IP licenses, and the prevalence of counterfeit products, which could undermine market stability [28][33]. - Regulatory oversight is deemed necessary to protect consumer rights and ensure a healthy market environment, as the current landscape lacks sufficient consumer protection measures [32][33]. - The competitive nature of the industry, coupled with the rapid evolution of consumer preferences, poses challenges for companies to maintain relevance and profitability [33][37].

Core Insights - The opening of the first official Pokémon trading card venue in Beijing has attracted significant consumer interest, with long queues observed even days after the launch [1][2] - The popularity of trading cards is expanding beyond traditional demographics, appealing to a wider audience including families and couples [1][2] - The capital market is responding positively to the trading card trend, with companies like Kai Zhi Le International seeing stock price surges following partnerships with Pokémon [2][5] Market Dynamics - The trading card market in China is projected to reach approximately 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024 [7] - The market is currently dominated by game and cultural IPs, with significant growth potential due to low per capita spending compared to markets like the US and Japan [7][8] - The trading card industry is heavily reliant on IP, which can lead to volatility in company valuations based on the lifecycle and popularity of specific IPs [5][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to spend large amounts on trading cards, with limited edition cards and exclusive events driving demand [3][4] - The Pokémon brand has a strong fan base and brand influence, which translates into consumer purchasing behavior and willingness to pay premium prices [2][3] - The current consumer demographic is primarily young adults and teenagers, with a focus on both entertainment and investment aspects of trading cards [12] Investment Trends - The trading card market is beginning to show signs of becoming a financial asset class, with trends in secondary markets indicating significant appreciation in card values [8][9] - The establishment of authoritative rating agencies and standardized auction platforms could accelerate the financialization of the domestic trading card market [12] - The potential for trading cards to serve as investment collectibles is growing, with notable sales in the secondary market reflecting high demand for rare cards [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - ShiningSoul, a cultural technology brand under Shanghai Zhenyouqu, has successfully completed a financing round of several hundred million RMB, led by Hillhouse Capital, indicating strong investor confidence in the collectible card game (CCG) market and its growth potential in China [1][5]. Company Overview - ShiningSoul was co-founded by Yao Shuo Bin, chairman of Yaoji Technology, and industry veteran Sheng Chuan, with the brand officially launched in November 2023 after its registration in March [3][4]. - The company focuses on game IPs, leveraging popular franchises to create collectible card products, which have shown promising market reception [3][4]. Market Potential - The collectible card industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size of 101.8 billion RMB in 2024 and an expected annual compound growth rate of 15.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3]. - The segment of trading card games (TCG) is particularly noteworthy, with a remarkable annual compound growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024 [3]. Product Success - ShiningSoul's collaboration with major IPs such as "Identity V" and "Genshin Impact" has resulted in several successful card series, with the "Identity V" series selling out within 26 days of launch [4][5]. - The emotional connection between players and game IPs enhances the willingness to purchase physical cards, as these products serve as tangible extensions of the gaming experience [5]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape includes other major players like KAYOU, which has reported a staggering revenue growth of 277.8% year-on-year for 2024, highlighting the lucrative nature of the card game market [6]. - The rise of collectible cards among younger demographics, particularly elementary school students, indicates a strong and growing consumer base for TCGs [5][6]. Strategic Plans - Following the recent financing, ShiningSoul plans to deepen strategic partnerships with top global IPs and expand its presence in key markets such as North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [5][6]. - The company aims to balance short-term explosive growth with long-term sustainability in the collectible card business, which is characterized by its blend of collection, competition, and social interaction [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The domestic card market primarily relies on overseas high-quality IP, while the overseas market is dominated by proprietary IP [7][22] - The core advantages of trading card games (TCG) include longer lifecycles and broader monetization channels [8][10] - Recent efforts by domestic and international manufacturers have created a positive cycle in the trading card industry, potentially leading to new growth points [9] Summary by Sections Differences Between Domestic and International Card Markets - Domestic card companies mainly operate on overseas high-quality IP, while the US and Japan markets are mature with proprietary IP [7][22] - The card types differ, with TCG being predominant overseas and collectible card games (CCG) being more common in China [28] - The domestic card industry is expected to undergo accelerated integration across its value chain [40] Advantages of Trading Card Games - TCGs benefit from longer lifecycles due to evergreen IP and competitive content design [8][57] - The competitive nature and blind box attributes of TCGs enhance user loyalty and consumption frequency [62][71] - TCGs have diversified monetization channels through mobile games and other derivative products [8][10] Breaking Through in the Trading Card Industry - The industry is in a cultivation phase, with consumer habits around competitive play still developing [9] - Domestic manufacturers are enhancing their channel strategies and event experiences to foster a trading card culture [9][49] - The establishment of a robust ecosystem through collaboration between manufacturers and event organizers is crucial for market maturation [9][53]

Group 1: Media Industry Outlook - The media industry is expected to face revenue and net profit pressure in 2024, with a rebound anticipated in Q1 2025, showing cyclical changes [1] - The IP economy is projected to grow through the incubation of proprietary IP and collaboration with popular IPs, exploring mature business forms like "谷子" (Guzi), blind boxes, and trading cards [1] - AI is recognized as a transformative technology, becoming a focal point in global tech competition and a key driver for future industries, with significant potential and application prospects across various media sub-industries [1] Group 2: IP Economy Insights - "谷子" (Guzi) products are evolving into key emotional carriers within the IP ecosystem, driven by the Z generation's shift towards emotional investment and community expression, leading to rapid market growth [1] - Blind boxes leverage the element of surprise to stimulate retail, focusing on product design and original IP commercialization, with strong social engagement and market maturity [1] - Trading cards, particularly collectible cards, create interactive consumer experiences through collection and trading, showcasing strong social attributes and user engagement advantages [1] Group 3: AI Applications and Developments - The AI industry has diversified into multiple tracks and scenarios, covering over 20 applications, enhancing user experience and meeting personalized needs [2] - AI is widely applied in various media sectors such as film, advertising, and gaming, improving content production efficiency and reducing costs [2] - AI smart glasses are emerging as a breakthrough in the AI terminal market, with significant growth expected in sales by 2025, as various manufacturers actively enter this field [2]

Macro Economic Group - The ADP report indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the US for June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with expectations set at an increase of 98,000 jobs [4] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [4] - Market anticipations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report suggest a modest increase of 100,000 jobs, with unemployment rates potentially reaching 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - A trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was announced, imposing a minimum 20% tariff on all goods exported to the US from Vietnam, which could lower the tariff rates compared to the current over 30% rates from China [8] - The agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty regarding the US-China trade war, as it reflects the worst-case scenario for tariffs [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In June, the top five automotive companies by sales were BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, and Great Wall, with sales figures of 383,000, 365,000, 236,000, 234,000, and 111,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 21.6%, 42%, 16.6%, and 12.9% [11] - New energy vehicle sales are driven by technological advancements, particularly in pure electric range and fast-charging technology, alleviating consumer concerns [11] - BYD's overseas sales surged from 27,000 units two years ago to 90,000 units, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese new energy vehicles [11] Consumer Group - The company Card Game reported a revenue of 10.057 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 278%, with an adjusted net profit of 4.466 billion yuan, reflecting a 378% growth [16] - The company holds a market share of 71.1% in the collectible card segment, with rapid growth in non-card revenue, increasing by 284.5% year-on-year [16] - The diversified product layout, including figurines and stationery, has significantly supported the company's sustained growth [16]

Core Insights - The emergence of a truck carrying 6,000 rare star cards valued at 20 million yuan from Shanghai marks a significant moment for the domestic star card market, highlighting the potential value of these collectibles [1] - The history of domestic star cards in China spans over 30 years, evolving from promotional items to collectible cultural products, with a pivotal moment occurring in 1998 when commercial operations began [2][4] - The market for collectible cards in China is projected to reach 27.66 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a growing interest and investment in this sector [5][20] Industry Evolution - Domestic star cards began in the mid-1990s as promotional items for football clubs, but the 1998 launch of the "98甲A联赛球星卡" marked the transition to a collectible market [2][4] - The rise of the internet facilitated the growth of online trading platforms, allowing collectors to form national communities, although the domestic market struggled due to weak sports IP influence [4][6] - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 significantly boosted the domestic star card market, with a consumption growth rate of 205%, surpassing the global average [6] Market Dynamics - The most collectible domestic star cards are those associated with Olympic and world champions, reflecting a strong national sentiment [6][8] - High-value transactions have been recorded, with individual cards selling for over 25,000 yuan, indicating a willingness among consumers to invest in domestic star cards [9] - The domestic star card market faces challenges, including a lack of strong sports culture, high competition from international brands, and the need for better IP development [12][15][19] Future Opportunities - The domestic star card market can learn from successful IP strategies in other sectors, such as leveraging local sports events and historical figures to create more relatable products [22][24] - Innovative approaches, such as integrating AR technology and creating immersive experiences, could enhance consumer engagement and transform star cards into dynamic cultural products [24][26] - The market's growth potential is supported by a significant number of companies entering the space, with approximately 2,830 card-related enterprises expected by 2025 [20]