Core Insights - The collectible card market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by popular IPs like My Little Pony, which has significantly boosted sales and trading activities [2][4][8] - Card You Co., Ltd. (卡游) is the leading company in the collectible card market, holding over 70% market share and reporting a revenue of 100.57 billion yuan in 2024, a threefold increase from the previous year [2][8] - The secondary market for trading cards is also expanding, with platforms like Xianyu and Qidao seeing increased transaction volumes, particularly for My Little Pony cards [4][8] Company Overview - Card You Co., Ltd. has submitted a second IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed company focused on collectible trading cards [2] - The company’s revenue growth is attributed to the popularity of its licensed IPs, with My Little Pony replacing Ultraman as the main revenue driver in 2024 [8] - The adjusted net profit for Card You in 2024 is reported at 44.66 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 378.16% [2][8] Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth as the average spending per person is only 8.6 yuan compared to 92.3 yuan in Japan and 50.7 yuan in the U.S. [9] - The demand for graded cards is increasing, with domestic grading institutions seeing a surge in orders, particularly for My Little Pony cards, which has led to over 1 million cards being graded in 2024 [6][7] - The secondary market is influenced by the popularity of IPs, with the lifecycle of card products being relatively short, often declining in demand significantly after the initial hype [8][10] Trading and Valuation - The trading of collectible cards is characterized by a mix of luck and strategy, with players often calculating the probabilities of obtaining rare cards from different price packages [3][4] - Graded cards are becoming a new business segment, with players seeking authentication and valuation for their collections, which is different from the international market where cards are treated as investment assets [5][6] - The secondary market is seeing high transaction values, with some My Little Pony cards selling for thousands of yuan, indicating a robust demand for rare and graded cards [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 卡游, is preparing for an IPO despite reporting a net loss of 1.242 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rapid revenue growth and a strong market position in the collectible card industry [1][2]. Company Overview - 卡游's core business is collectible card games, with total revenue of approximately 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where card business contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [5]. - The company holds leading positions in various segments, including a 13.3% market share in the general entertainment products industry, 21.5% in the general entertainment toys sector, and a dominant 71.1% in the collectible card market [5]. Reasons for IPO - The company aims to expand its capital strength to support rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 277.8% year-on-year in 2024, necessitating significant funding despite the current losses [6]. - The IPO is intended to seize market opportunities and enhance competitiveness against international rivals, as China has become the largest card market globally, valued at 26.3 billion yuan [6]. - The company seeks to solidify its leading position in the industry and unlock valuation potential, given the low per capita spending on cards in China compared to Japan and the U.S. [6]. Competitive Advantages - 卡游 boasts a rich IP matrix with 70 IPs, including one proprietary IP, which enhances its product offerings and market appeal [8]. - The company has a robust sales network, covering all 31 provinces in China through 217 distributors, 32 flagship stores, and various online platforms [8]. - 卡游 capitalizes on the "Guzi Economy" trend, aligning collectible cards with national cultural IPs to meet the consumption preferences of Generation Z [8]. Industry Outlook - The collectible card industry in China has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 57% from 2019 to 2024, with a market size of 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing the U.S. and Japan [9]. - There is significant growth potential in the market, as per capita spending on collectible cards in China is only 18.7 yuan, compared to 119.3 yuan in Japan and 64.0 yuan in the U.S., indicating a possible 3-6 times increase in market size [9]. Impact of Losses on IPO - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the company's IPO despite the reported losses, as the losses are attributed to high initial investments during the expansion phase rather than poor business performance [10][11]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of around 70%, indicating strong core business profitability [11]. - The backing of prestigious underwriters such as Morgan Stanley, CICC, and JPMorgan reflects confidence in the company's future prospects [11].

Core Viewpoint - The trading card brand Kayo is attempting to go public again after a failed IPO in 2024, facing challenges related to data security and regulatory compliance, while also contending with negative public perceptions regarding its impact on minors [1][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Kayo's revenue has shown significant growth, with figures of 41.31 billion in 2022, 26.62 billion in 2023, and a projected 100.57 billion in 2024, despite a dip in 2023 due to decreased popularity of its main IP, Ultraman [3][8]. - The company has a high gross margin, with rates of 68.8%, 65.8%, and 67.3% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a profitable business model [8]. - Kayo's IP library has expanded to 70 IPs, with major contributors including Ultraman, My Little Pony, and others, which are crucial for its revenue generation [3][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading card market in China has grown from 2.8 billion in 2019 to 13.3 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.49% [3]. - The primary consumer demographic for trading cards is under 35 years old, with a significant portion being minors, which raises concerns about the company's long-term sustainability [12]. - Competitors like Hitcard and Jicard are gaining traction, with Hitcard securing various IP partnerships and Jicard adopting a dual strategy of introducing and creating original IPs [15][13]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The rise of live-streaming card unpacking has accelerated the popularity of trading cards among younger consumers, creating a new consumption scenario [5]. - The trading card segment is increasingly seen as part of the broader "peripheral economy," which has high profit margins compared to other merchandise categories [8]. - Kayo is diversifying its product offerings beyond trading cards into areas like figurines and stationery, although trading cards remain its primary revenue source, accounting for 81.5% of its income in 2024 [16][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of the MCP protocol and the "Network Publishing Technology Innovation Leading Plan," which are expected to boost the AI sector and related industries, particularly in IP and experiential consumption [5] - The collectible card game (CCG) market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size increasing from 2.8 billion RMB in 2019 to 26.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 56.6% [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in various sectors, including gaming, education, and entertainment, suggesting continued investment in AI-related companies [5][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Media Industry Overview - The media sector is experiencing a positive outlook, driven by advancements in AI and supportive government policies [1][5] - The report notes that the CCG market is expected to reach 44.6 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [14] Section 2: Key Companies and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, and others in the AI and gaming sectors [5] - The report identifies specific companies in various sub-sectors, such as AI gaming (Xindong Company, NetEase-S) and AI education (Guomai Culture, Century Tianhong) [5] Section 3: Market Performance and Trends - The report indicates that the CCG market is benefiting from emotional consumption and the rise of domestic IPs, with significant growth expected in the coming years [6][14] - The performance of major games like "Peacekeeper Elite" is highlighted, maintaining top positions in iOS rankings [31][35] Section 4: Industry Data and Insights - The report provides data on the performance of various media and entertainment products, including box office results and streaming viewership [45][46][49] - It notes that the collectible card game market is characterized by a high concentration of leading companies, with Card Game Company holding a 71.1% market share [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The "Guzi Economy" is gaining momentum, and the value derived from IP (Intellectual Property) is being widely recognized in the market [1] Market Overview - Among various categories of Guzi, trading cards are experiencing rapid growth due to their high playability, collectible value, and social attributes. In 2023, China's collectible card market reached 15.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%. CITIC Securities predicts that this sector may exceed 35 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [2] Company Performance - The performance of leading company KAYOU reflects the heat in the card market. From 2022 to 2024, KAYOU achieved revenues of 4.13 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 10.06 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.62 billion yuan, 930 million yuan, and 4.47 billion yuan respectively [3] Strategic Development - KAYOU is exploring more development possibilities in the rapidly growing market by continuously innovating expression methods, deeply co-creating with copyright holders, and enhancing IP's commercial value through precise market insights and strong operational capabilities [4] IP Activation - The demand for cards surged during the release of the animated film "Nezha: The Devil's Child," leading to a "card shortage" phenomenon. KAYOU's initial release of 4.5 million card packs sold out within a week, prompting quick restocking and the launch of new products [5] Production and Sales Network - KAYOU operates three production bases and one logistics center in Zhejiang and Guangdong, supporting a nationwide sales network. The company has a comprehensive dealer system with 217 dealers covering the market, allowing for rapid product development and distribution [6] Competitive Advantage - KAYOU's competitive edge lies in its understanding and respect for classic IPs, alongside its product design, innovation speed, and channel positioning. The company actively participates in IP operation and co-creation, moving beyond being a passive recipient of traffic [7] Collaboration and Expansion - KAYOU has established a deep collaboration with Hasbro for the "My Little Pony" series, significantly enhancing the commercial value of the IP. The card products have gained immense popularity on social media, expanding the audience from children to young women [9][10] Financial Growth - KAYOU's revenue is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 10.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280%. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 380% to 4.466 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 44.4% [13] IP Portfolio - KAYOU has developed a diverse IP portfolio, including 70 well-known IPs such as Ultraman, My Little Pony, and Naruto, which enhances brand recognition and attracts a broader fan base [14][15] Market Position - KAYOU ranks first in the collectible card sector within the pan-entertainment toy industry in China, holding a market share of 71.1% [16] Cash Flow and Innovation - In 2024, KAYOU's operating cash flow net inflow reached 5.113 billion yuan, a significant increase of 458%. The company is focusing on product innovation, particularly in contemporary expressions of traditional culture [17] Product Diversification - KAYOU's product structure is evolving from single trading cards to a broader pan-entertainment ecosystem, with rapid growth in creative and stationery products [18][19] Future Outlook - KAYOU's high standards in craftsmanship and product development are expected to further enhance its competitiveness and contribute to the growth of the pan-entertainment product industry [23]