Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.22 to close at $92.35 per barrel, a gain of 4.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $4.55 to close at $104.49 per barrel, a gain of 4.55%. The SC crude oil main contract fell 1.56% to 740 yuan per barrel [1] - Hungary's MOL Group has received approval from U.S. regulators to continue negotiations to acquire a majority stake in the refinery of Serbia's NIS [1] - Iran has started charging tolls on some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its control over this key global maritime energy route. Some ships have paid the fee, highlighting the urgent need of some consumers to ensure a continuous energy flow [1] - The Asian Development Bank has launched an emergency assistance program for countries severely affected by the Middle East war and will lift restrictions on corporate financing for oil purchases. The new assistance mechanism first benefits Sri Lanka [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The future of the Middle East conflict is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz toll is true, it is unacceptable to Gulf oil - producing countries and Asia - Pacific consumers. Saudi Arabia hopes the U.S. will continue military action against Iran, increasing the probability of further conflict and short - term oil price volatility [2] Group 3: Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are strongly driven up by the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but are also prone to sharp drops if the situation reverses. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risk: The Middle East war eases and the strait resumes normal navigation [3] - Upside risk: The suspension of the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price fluctuates repeatedly under the influence of news, with increased amplitude. The fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride markets are all in a state of shock. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the cost side and downstream demand [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors cause the oil price to fluctuate. The WTI May contract rose by 4.79%, the Brent May contract rose by 4.55%, and the SC2605 fell by 1.56%. The US proposed a cease - fire plan, and Kuwait can increase oil production if the conflict ends. API data shows an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil futures declined due to the sharp drop in oil prices. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East and Europe is decreasing, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is tight [2]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures declined due to the drop in oil prices. The cost of refineries is high, and the supply is tight. With the increase in temperature, the demand is expected to rise, and the price is expected to remain high [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester futures such as TA605, EG2605, and PX605 all declined. The downstream production and sales are weak, and the price follows the cost to fluctuate widely [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber futures is affected by the change in geopolitical situations and the decline in butadiene production. The new rubber production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [4]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol starts to decline. The Iranian device has the expectation of resuming production, which may suppress the price increase, and the market is volatile [4][5]. - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and production reduction are common, and the downstream demand is released. However, the geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit, and the market is in a state of shock [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of polyvinyl chloride fluctuates. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, and the profit of the calcium - carbide method is strong. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 24, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait can quickly increase oil production if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran ends. A Thai oil tanker has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is regarded as a positive signal [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][32][34][36][39][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [59][61][63][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director of energy and chemical industry, the natural rubber/polyester analyst, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, and their professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the ongoing war has led to rising oil prices, prompting global automakers to reconsider their commitment to electric vehicles (EVs) and shift towards hybrid and alternative energy solutions instead of solely focusing on pure electric models [3][10][20]. Group 1: Impact of War on Oil Prices and Consumer Behavior - The conflict has caused Brent crude oil prices to rise to $110 per barrel and WTI to $99, with U.S. crude oil exports expected to reach a record 4.6 million barrels per day in March [8]. - The war has resulted in significant increases in gasoline prices: 7% in the UK, 8% in the EU, and 27% in the U.S. since late February [11]. - Consumers are increasingly considering electric or hybrid vehicles due to rising fuel costs, with a 40% increase in traffic for electric vehicle-related searches in Germany [11][12]. Group 2: Automakers' Strategic Shifts - At least 12 global automakers are scaling back their electric vehicle plans, leading to over $70 billion in impairment losses, with Honda and Stellantis among those making significant cuts [19][20]. - The shift is not a retreat from electrification but a response to the economic pressures of the current market, indicating a more diversified approach to energy solutions [20][21]. - The European market shows that 67% of new car registrations in February were for electric, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid vehicles, suggesting a continued push towards electrification, albeit through varied pathways [21]. Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - The demand for energy storage solutions is increasing, with companies like General Motors and LGES pivoting their battery production towards energy storage applications due to insufficient electric vehicle sales [22][24]. - The volatility in oil and gas prices is impacting manufacturing costs, leading to hiring freezes and price increases in various sectors, such as chemicals [28][30]. - The article emphasizes that the market is not uniformly embracing pure electric vehicles but is instead exploring hybrid and alternative energy solutions to mitigate exposure to oil price fluctuations [34][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The current state of the crude oil market is a temporary sideways market, and long positions should be held [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI May crude oil futures rose $4.22, or 4.79%, to $92.35 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May rose $4.55 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, to $104.49 per barrel; SC2605 crude oil futures fell 11.70 yuan per barrel, or 1.56%, to 740.20 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different crude oils in the Mexican Gulf market have different spread changes. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread decreased by 1.94 compared to January, mainly due to the sharp expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH; Vasconia's spread changed from negative to positive, rising 1.83, driven by the change of crude oil price from a disadvantage to an advantage [1]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the double deterioration of refining value and crude oil price disadvantage relative to Bonny Light; Urals' spread narrowed, but the arbitrage space was still large, mainly because the crude oil price advantage relative to Bonny Light narrowed [3]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread increased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the extremely strong refining value; Azeri Light's spread decreased and turned negative, as the strong refining value was offset by the price disadvantage and high freight and structural costs [6]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all increased month - on - month. For Saharan Blend, it was due to the significant narrowing of the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals; for Azeri Light, it was because the significant improvement in refining value provided support despite the large price advantage of Urals; for Bonny Light, it was due to the significant narrowing of the price advantage of Urals [7]. Key Market News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 20 was 234,800 barrels, compared with an expected - 136,700 barrels and a previous value of 655,600 barrels; the US sent a plan to end the Middle - East war to Iran; Israel's representative to the United Nations stated that Israel was not involved in the US - Iran negotiations; the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from March 1 - 20 increased by 61.02% compared to the same period last month; the EU has not announced a new schedule for the plan to completely phase out Russian oil [8][10]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is influenced by expectations of a "ceasefire" between the US and Iran, along with central bank liquidity measures, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices [1][10] - The US has proposed a 15-point negotiation plan to Iran, which includes dismantling nuclear capabilities and halting missile programs, in exchange for lifting sanctions [4][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that the current Middle East crisis is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s, impacting energy prices significantly [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, while gold prices rebounded after a nine-day decline, reaching $4475 [1][10] - Copper prices increased by 0.68% due to tight supply conditions, although the overall demand remains weak in sectors like automotive and real estate [2][16] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, with significant production cuts announced by major aluminum producers [18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with market sentiment affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising inflation expectations due to high oil prices [2][7] - The financing balance in China decreased by 115.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period [2][7] - The central bank in China is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including MLF operations, to support the economy [8]

Market Overview - On March 24, US stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.18% at 46,124.06 points, the S&P 500 down 0.37% at 6,556.37 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.84% at 21,761.89 points [3] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Google down nearly 4%, Microsoft down over 2%, and Meta down nearly 2%. Tesla and Apple saw slight increases, both under 1% [3] Individual Stock Movements - Estee Lauder experienced a significant drop, closing down over 9%. The company confirmed discussions regarding a potential business merger with Puig, but no final decision or agreement has been reached [6] - Energy stocks saw a broad increase, with ExxonMobil and Schlumberger rising over 2%, while Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips increased by over 1% [5] - Bank stocks collectively rose, with Citigroup up nearly 2%, and both Bank of America and Wells Fargo up over 1% [4] - Airline stocks showed mixed results, with Delta Air Lines up over 2%, while Southwest Airlines and American Airlines fell by over 1% [6] - Semiconductor stocks mostly rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.26%. Notable gainers included GlobalFoundries up nearly 5% and ON Semiconductor up over 4% [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw a slight decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.43%. Notable decliners included Hesai Technology down over 14% and Yatsen Holding down over 11% [8]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. crude futures experienced a decline of approximately 4% in early trading due to the potential for a ceasefire that may alleviate disruptions in global oil supply, following reports of Washington sending a proposal to Tehran [1] Group 1 - The decline in U.S. crude futures is attributed to the prospect of a ceasefire, which could ease supply disruptions [1] - The reported communication from Washington to Tehran includes a proposal that may influence oil market dynamics [1]

Russia has shelved plans to cut its oil-price threshold for topping up a reserves fund, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev was quoted as saying on Tuesday, suggesting recent price rises are b... ...

Historical Review - The oil crisis typically begins with geopolitical conflicts and escalates due to anticipated disruptions in oil supply, driven by factors such as production cuts, embargoes, and sanctions, resulting in short-term price spikes and a long-term upward shift in price levels [2] - The macroeconomic impact often leads to inflation followed by stagnation or stagflation; the 1970s oil crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict both caused inflationary pressures in the U.S., but the economy in the 1970s fell into recession and stagflation, while in 2022, only a technical recession occurred, remaining at a level of real inflation [2] - Market narratives have evolved, reflecting a learning effect; the crises of the 1970s shifted from valuation model failures and wage-inflation spirals to a focus on real assets and supply-side reforms, while 2022 centered around Federal Reserve tightening policies and energy transitions [2] - Asset performance during crises shows that commodities like oil benefit directly, while gold reflects pre-war risk aversion and post-war trends depend on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields; equities face valuation pressures, particularly in growth sectors, while bonds initially decline due to risk aversion but may rise with inflation expectations [2] Comparison of Past and Present - Similarities include the current position of the U.S. inflation cycle and concerns about debt vulnerabilities extending to developed economies like Japan [3] - Differences lie in the foundation of global economic growth, with current inflation levels at historical lows, central bank policies focusing more on price stability, and reduced reliance on oil due to improved energy efficiency [3] - These similarities and differences reshape current asset pricing logic, with global central banks having more mature tools to control inflation, though the risk of stagflation remains a concern [3] Lessons from History - The uncertainty surrounding the prospects of U.S.-Iran-Israel conflicts has led to a significant rise in oil prices, with a strong consensus on inflation but divided opinions on stagnation; asset price volatility has increased due to the unpredictable nature of conflicts and policy paths [4] - Since the conflict began in late February, asset performance has aligned closely with historical patterns, favoring oil, energy stocks, and defensive assets, indicating high market risk aversion and a shift in trading logic from "secondary inflation" to "stagflation" expectations [4] - Future investment strategies should focus on areas with stronger certainty, including strategic security in energy and supply chains, technology sectors aligned with future industry trends, and gold as a long-term beneficiary of weakened dollar credibility [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [3] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [3] - Asphalt: ★★★ [3] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - It is expected that fuel oil will follow crude oil, showing an operating pattern of strong support below, being easily disturbed by news, and wide fluctuations [2] - The fundamentals of asphalt have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will still follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, and the oil price initially strengthened but then significantly pulled back. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal shipping volume in the strait is still huge, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only an emergency buffer [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - In the high-sulfur aspect, the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged, and with the approaching of the summer power generation peak, more fuel oil is needed to fill the LNG supply gap. In the low-sulfur aspect, supply from Kuwait has decreased due to war, and other overseas refineries have also reduced production. Domestic production has decreased due to raw material issues, and the component end continuously supports the low-sulfur trend [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, and asphalt supply has correspondingly shrunk. The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the refinery production schedule for April has further declined to an absolute low in the same period in recent years. The sample refinery shipment volume has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded. Refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, and social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, with the overall commercial inventory level being low [2]