Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data of US commercial crude oil inventory decline is favorable, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at the peak of the year, which makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.993 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels [2]. - In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2]. - US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year, with a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day. US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day, and crude oil processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3]. - The terminal apparent demand for US crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 314,250 barrels per day to 20.576 million barrels per day, while the apparent demand for gasoline (four - week smoothing) decreased by 180,250 barrels per day to 8.81375 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for distillate oil (four - week smoothing) decreased by 112,750 barrels per day to 3.61925 million barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, the decline of US commercial crude oil exceeded expectations. The continuous decline of weekly crude oil production, the high operating rate of downstream refineries (increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%), and the continuous rebound of weekly crude oil exports all contributed to the inventory decline. However, the increase in refinery operating rate was partly due to the withdrawal of refinery capacity last week, and the increase in US crude oil processing volume was only 87,000 barrels per day [4]. - In terms of refined oil, although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil decreased. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's gasoline demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the level of the 2020 COVID - 19 year, which may break the high operating rate of refineries through cracking conduction [6]. - Although the EIA report's surface data is favorable due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the weak terminal refined oil demand makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful. After the report was released, the oil price had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a mixed sentiment due to improving risk appetite from trade negotiations between the US and EU, and the resumption of US-China economic talks, while uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions continue to suppress oil prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - US crude oil inventories have decreased overall, with diesel inventories hitting a historical low, providing market support [2][3]. - The overall commercial oil inventory in the US fell by 5.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories down by 1.7 million barrels, while propane and propylene inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels [2][3]. - The increase in Cushing crude oil inventories to the highest level since June indicates localized pressure on prices, particularly affecting WTI [4][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The US and EU are nearing a 15% tariff agreement, and China is set to hold economic talks with the US from July 27 to 30, which are expected to improve market sentiment [1][3]. - The EU has threatened to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US goods if trade negotiations fail, adding to market uncertainty [2][4]. - The US-Japan trade agreement is seen as beneficial for the US economy but is not expected to significantly impact US crude oil exports [2][4]. Group 3: Soft Power Analysis - The oil market is in a consolidation phase, with external factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical risks influencing market dynamics [3][5]. - The "environmental adaptability" factor, which includes geopolitical and trade policy risks, is currently dominating short-term market fluctuations [5][6]. - The interplay between positive market sentiment from trade optimism and negative sentiment from geopolitical uncertainties is creating a cautious trading environment [6].

能源化工期权 2025-07-25 能源化工期权策略早报 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2509 | 506 | 2 | 0.42 | 12.88 | -1.49 | 3.63 | -0.03 | | 液化气 | PG2509 | 3,972 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.18 | -2.44 | 9.23 | 0.46 | | 甲醇 | MA2509 | 2,469 | 39 | 1.60 | 86.70 | -19.26 | 66.66 | 0.60 | | 乙二醇 | EG2509 | 4,467 | 27 | 0.61 | 17.03 | -7.76 | 26.25 | -0.62 | | 聚丙烯 | PP2509 | 7,145 | 19 | 0.27 | 33.82 | -5.76 | 35 ...

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔23日表示，如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判破裂，并且美国对欧盟商品征收 高关税，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。 新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）国际油价23日在隔夜市场下跌。当日早盘窄幅盘整，午后跌幅 显著收窄，收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌6美分，收于每桶65.25美元，跌幅为 0.09%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌8美分，收于每桶68.51美元，跌幅为0.12%。 新加坡原油分析机构Vanda Insights分析师Vandana Hari表示，虽然过去三个交易日油价下跌看起来已经 消退，但美国与日本达成贸易协议的消息预计不会给油价带来多大上涨动力。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2190万桶，环比增加50万桶；上周美国战略原油储 备规模为4.025亿桶，环比减少20万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1327.3万桶，环比下降10.2万桶。 美国石油学会在22日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降57.7万桶，汽油库存下 降120万桶，而蒸馏油库存则显著增加348 ...

6月份北海原油基准价环比上涨了7美元/桶，均价达到71.35美元/桶。6月份当月原油价格在每桶65美元 至80美元区间内震荡。6月中旬，因伊朗与以色列爆发冲突导致国际油价飙升，北海原油基准价曾短暂 突破80美元/桶的关口，6月下旬伊以停火协议达成后有所回落。虽然OPEC+决议加快解除减产限制，但 鉴于国际石油市场供需基本面趋紧，该决议目前尚未对国际石油市场产生实质性影响。 值得注意的是，自今年4月份起，OPEC+开始逐步放弃2023年以来的自愿减产措施，转向扩大原油产 量。报告提出，在地缘政治紧张局势升级的背景下，国际石油市场却呈现供应过剩的态势。7月5日， OPEC+又宣布8月产量目标将超预期上调55万桶/日，相当于撤回了自2023年以来220万桶/日自愿减产量 的80%，并计划于9月份批准新一轮原油增产。 国际能源署近日发布的7月份国际石油市场报告（以下简称"报告"）预测，2025年全球平均石油需求增 长仅为约70万桶/日，将创下2009年以来最低增幅。全球石油需求增量在今年一季度曾达到平均110万 桶/日，但二季度显著放缓至平均55万桶/日，新兴市场石油消费表现尤为疲软。报告同时预计，2026年 全球石 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the tension between the U.S. and China regarding energy trade, highlighting the U.S. Treasury Secretary's attempts to impose political sanctions on China's energy partnerships with Russia and Iran [1][3][5] - The U.S. aims to redefine global energy cooperation rules, particularly focusing on China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [3][9] - China's response to U.S. threats has been calm and assertive, emphasizing the importance of adhering to previously established agreements in U.S.-China trade discussions [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. has three main objectives behind its focus on China's oil imports: to gain leverage in trade negotiations, to create discord between China and its energy partners, and to encourage China to increase imports of U.S. oil [9][11][16] - Despite U.S. pressure, China has continued to strengthen its energy ties with Russia and Iran, with significant increases in oil imports and a shift towards using local currencies for transactions [20][22] - The article notes that the U.S. is facing contradictions in its approach, simultaneously threatening sanctions while seeking to boost its own oil exports to China [24][27] Group 3 - The evolving energy cooperation landscape indicates a shift towards a multipolar world, with increasing collaboration between Asian countries and major oil producers like Russia and Iran [33][35] - The article argues that energy cooperation should be based on mutual respect and market principles, rather than coercive measures, as the U.S. attempts to maintain its influence [37][39] - The future of energy trade is expected to be more diversified, moving away from a single dominant power, reflecting a significant change in international power dynamics [39]

因进港规定变动 俄罗斯黑海石油运输受阻 金十数据7月24日讯，据报道，俄罗斯黑海两个主要码头的石油装载已经暂停，原因与进港安全新规定 的文书工作有关。两名业内人士称，此次暂停影响了新罗西斯克港和里海管道联盟的出口设施Yuzhnaya Ozereevka码头。其中一人表示，他预计情况将在一两天内得到解决。在最近几个月发生了一系列神秘 的油轮爆炸事件后，进入俄罗斯海港的规则发生了变化。本周早些时候，俄罗斯总统普京签署了一项法 令，要求从外国码头抵达的船只必须获得驻埠船长的许可，并得到俄罗斯联邦安全局的同意。 ...

俄罗斯黑海Novorossiysk和Yuzhnaya Ozereevka多个大型枢纽已经暂停石油装货的书面工作。 这一动态与油轮进港权限的新版监管有关。（路透） ...

7月14日，白宫记者会上，美国总统特朗普突然抛出一颗"经济核弹"。他给普京划下50天停火期限，威胁将俄商品关税提高到100%，更放话 要连带制裁所有购买俄油的国家。 明眼人一看便知，这记重拳表面打向莫斯科，实则瞄准的是北京和新德里。这场以能源为武器的博弈，瞬间将全球贸易战场烧得通红。 短短一周后，美国财长贝森特撕下最后伪装。7月21日接受采访时，他单刀直入抛出要求：中国必须停止购买俄罗斯与伊朗石油。 为强化威胁，他搬出"二级制裁"这把屠刀——任何继续采购俄油的国家都将面临100%关税惩罚，相关企业、运输公司乃至银行统统难逃"连 坐"。原本聚焦市场准入的贸易谈判，被美方强行塞进地缘政治炸药包。 普京的冷静反应折射出大国博弈的微妙。面对特朗普的"50天通牒"，克里姆林宫轻描淡写表态"坚持既定目标"。这种近乎沉默的姿态，恰是 对中俄关系韧性的自信。 中国对俄罗斯原油的依赖绝非美方臆想的那般脆弱。2025年上半年数据显示，4200万吨俄罗斯原油占中国进口总量的3.8%，稳居第三大供 应国位置。这些石油以低于国际市场约5%的价格输送，成为中国能源成本控制的关键筹码。 更关键的是，2024年中俄能源贸易额高达764亿美元 ...

壳牌本月早些时候预警称交易收益"大幅下降"，而英国石油则表示其石油交易业务将实现"强劲"利润， 这为首席执行官默里·奥金克洛斯带来了急需的提振。彭博社汇总的分析师预测显示，埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)、雪佛龙(CVX.US)、壳牌、道达尔能源(TTE.US)和英国石油这五家公司第二季度的总收益预 计将环比下降12%，至198.8亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，地缘政治因素导致油价剧烈波动，部分石油公司的交易业务因此受挫，预计大型石 油公司将迎来四年来最低的季度利润。 5至6月的七周内，原油价格一度飙升31%，但最终因特朗普总统的贸易战及OPEC+增产的影响盖过了以 军和美军袭击伊朗引发的涨势，季度末价格较期初下跌10%。这种剧烈波动导致壳牌(SHEL.US)和英国 石油(BP.US)的业绩出现分化，这两家公司的交易部门规模超过美国同行。 "波动通常是好事，意味着更高的交易利润，但这次波动由地缘政治风险引发，因此更难把握，"高盛董 事总经理米歇尔·德拉维尼亚在采访中表示，"算不上灾难性，但无疑是更艰难的一个季度。" 大型石油公司的财报季将于周四拉开序幕，道达尔率先发布业绩;壳牌定于7月31日公布，埃克森美孚和 雪 ...