炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 见证历史了，近期有色金属迎来一轮强势上涨，多品种创下历史新高或阶段性新高。贵金属的黄金、白 银，历史新高；铂金2008年以来新高；工业金属方面，LME期铜历史新高、沪锡22年4月新高；小金属 方面，碳酸锂24年4月以来新高、部分钨金属今年以来涨超200%。 难怪有网友说了，还得是腾讯更懂贵金属，毕竟，尊贵铂金>荣耀黄金>秩序白银>倔强青铜… 从申万一级行业来看，今年以来有色金属涨幅超87%，位居行业之首，超大热门的通信行业1%左右， 年末竞争有点激烈．．． 铜：站上"超级周期"风口。供应端，智利、印尼等核心产区矿山事故频发，叠加中国冶炼企业自律性减 产，导致全球铜精矿出现"硬缺口" 。需求端，全球电网投资、新能源汽车用铜量是燃油车2-3倍，以及 AI数据中心建设，共同构成了长期结构性增长引擎。 铝：国内供应刚性是核心。电解铝产能天花板政策与云南水电复产不及预期，锁定了供应弹性。需求则 受益于汽车轻量化、光伏边框等领域的强劲韧性，社会库存持续处于低位，对价格形成支撑。 黄金：避险与货币属性驱动。美联储降息预期直接打压实际利率，中东、东欧地 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced increased volatility in the fourth quarter, with investors speculating on the potential for a "Christmas rally" similar to the "spring market" in A-shares [1][2] - Despite the potential for a rebound narrative, the actual investment guidance may be limited, as the market is still under supply and demand pressure, and the right-side turning point remains unclear [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices have shown signs of fluctuation, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 240 billion HKD in the fourth quarter, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The market is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment and a potential easing of overseas liquidity, which could enhance risk appetite and stabilize the Hong Kong stock market [3][4] - Key sectors for investment include upstream resources in the power chain, travel-related stocks, and leading domestic AI companies, which are seen as having significant layout value [1][4][5] - Emerging industries such as solid-state batteries, brain-computer interfaces, and biotechnology are anticipated to gain momentum, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improving macroeconomic conditions [4][5]

中国11月的稀土磁体出口再次创下新高。看到这一消息，我的第一反应不是庆祝，而是开始思考。这种现象不单是出口回暖的表现，更像是在进行一场深思 熟虑的博弈。 稀土从来就不仅仅是普通商品，它关系到的是工业的命脉。新能源车、战斗机、手机芯片等高科技产品，如果没有稀土元素，几乎无法正常 运作。中国在全球精炼稀土的产能中占据90%的份额，这不仅仅是一项生意，更是一种战略武器。 那么问题来了，既然稀土是一种战略武器，为什么中国还要大量出口，且出口量不断创新高？这正是最微妙的地方。11月正好是中美就简化出口流程达成一 致后的第一个完整月。按照常理，要么全面放开出口，要么继续实施限制。但事实上，中国对日本的出口大幅增长了35%，而对美国则减少了11%。这波操 作非常精准，简直像是在给不同的国家定制供应——对日本多出口，对美国则减少。这就像是你请人吃饭时，给张三夹鸡腿，给李四递鸡屁股，精确而富有 策略。 为什么要这么做？因为日本是产业链的下游，是一个重要的客户，能够将稀土转化为精密仪器，再以高价卖出去，形成合作伙伴关系。而美国一边高喊要脱 钩，一边却偷偷囤积稀土。对待这样的主，中国不能完全敞开供应，因为他们有可能把这些稀土直接塞 ...

代码名称最新价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额600259广晟有色55.975.814.80亿元002497雅化集团 23.684.8312.22亿元002202金风科技16.894.2626.85亿元002738中矿资源68.554.0519.91亿元603650彤程新 材46.484.0312.02亿元 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：行情君 2025年12月22日稀土市场行情： 根据包头稀土产品交易所显示，今日稀土主流产品价格走势分化。氧化镨钕均价59.06万元/吨，上涨 1.52万元/吨；金属镨钕均价71.43万元/吨，上涨1.55万元/吨；氧化镝均价136.00万元/吨，下跌2.67万元/ 吨；氧化铽均价606.50万元/吨，下跌3.50万元/吨。今日询价氧化钕、氧化镨、氧化镧铈、氧化铕等产 品成交信息较少，请慎重参考。本周初，随着上游镨钕产品供应收紧，持货商开始试探性拉涨报价，尽 管下游商家采购情况变化不大，但市场活跃度大幅提高，近期镨钕市场上升势头有望持续。中重稀土情 况则与之相反，除少量刚需成交外，整体市场偏冷。整体来看，在镨钕产品带动下，市场活跃度持续增 长，商家议价区间扩大，近期价格有望温和上行。 A股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese rare earth market has shown a positive trend with a 1.33% increase in prices, reaching a transaction volume of 998 million yuan and a total market capitalization of 48.551 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the production and operation of rare earth oxides and provides technology research and consulting services [2][8] - The main products include high-purity rare earth oxides, with over 80% of products having a purity greater than 99.99%, and some reaching 99.9999% [2] - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, categorizing it as a state-owned enterprise [3][4] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.494 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 192 million yuan, up 194.67% year-on-year [8] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 346 million yuan, with 124 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with notable changes in shareholding [10] - The number of shareholders has increased to 237,900, with an average of 4,460 circulating shares per person [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has approved the export license applications of some rare earth exporters, indicating a willingness to stabilize the global supply chain while maintaining strategic security [1][5] - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry, with 36.7% of the world's rare earth reserves, and possesses 90% of the patents related to smelting and separation technology [3] - The recent easing of export controls has provided some relief to Western companies, particularly in the military and electric vehicle sectors, which heavily rely on Chinese rare earth materials [5][6] Group 2 - A significant smuggling case involving antimony ingots was recently adjudicated, highlighting the risks associated with strategic resource smuggling, with 166 tons of antimony involved [6][8] - Antimony is considered a critical strategic resource, essential for military applications, and China controls nearly half of the global antimony reserves [8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are reflected in actions such as the U.S. canceling a large wheat order from China while simultaneously announcing a substantial arms sale to Taiwan, indicating a broader strategy of containment against China [10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese government is adopting a counter-strategy targeting U.S. agricultural exports in response to provocations, particularly in light of the importance of agricultural trade in U.S.-China relations [12]

在12月12日，美国和其他四个国家在华盛顿联合发起了一项针对中国稀土供应链的关键矿产联合声明。这一举措对中国在全球稀土领域的主导地位构成了前 所未有的挑战。虽然声明表面上强调减少对单一国家的依赖，实则暗藏了打破中国稀土优势的意图。这一举动看似是围堵中国，但实质上暴露了西方国家在 这一问题上的空洞，实际上是一种以弱压强的策略。 此次事件暴露了特朗普政府战略的矛盾。新发布的《国家安全战略》要求盟友将军费提高到GDP的5%，试图以堡垒美国的模式巩固霸权。然而，美国的财 政状况已经捉襟见肘，盟国之间也各有心思。虽然日本和澳大利亚表示支持，但都不愿投入大量资金来重建稀土产业链，而欧洲则被这次联盟排除在外，进 一步凸显了美国战略的碎片化。 这场博弈的真正底层逻辑早已超越了稀土本身。中国控制着全球70%的原料药产能和90%的锂电池关键材料供应链，如果美 国强行脱钩，首先受伤的可能是本国的制造业。通过近期的大豆拍卖事件，中国的态度变得更加清晰：我们始终欢迎外部合作，但任何通过限制我们农产品 发展的建议都将被视为徒劳无功的行为。 目前，西太平洋地区的军事对峙依然持续。美日和菲律宾在黄岩岛联合施压，而解放军则通过严密的监控和常态 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.88% this week, with expectations of a 20-25% reduction in monthly output due to stricter environmental inspections in December [5] - LME copper price increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton, while domestic copper price decreased by 0.96% to ¥93,200 per ton [2] - LME aluminum price rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton, and domestic aluminum price increased slightly by 0.07% to ¥22,200 per ton [3] - COMEX gold price increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, with expectations of reduced imports and stable domestic supply [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with an operating rate of 79.85%, but inventory pressures are evident as production continues to accumulate [3] - The supply of antimony is expected to decline due to reduced overseas production, while demand remains stable, indicating a potential upward trend in global antimony prices [5] - Lithium carbonate price increased by 3.66% to ¥96,700 per ton, while hydroxide lithium price decreased by 0.25% to ¥87,000 per ton [6] Group 3: Export and Future Outlook - China's magnetic material exports in October increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 5% month-on-month, with a more optimistic outlook for future demand due to expected easing in export restrictions [5] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum processing sector remains weak, with a decrease in operating rates among major processing enterprises [3] - The market for tin is expected to remain strong due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions in key overseas mining regions [5]

工业金属的三连击 20251221 摘要 流动性充裕预期增强，央行购金及 ETF 持仓上升支撑金价，美国降息预 期及美元走弱亦构成利好，白银、铂、钯等贵金属有望维持强势，库存 扰动致白银价格突破 66 美元。 锂价受供应端扰动影响，江西矿山复产进度不确定性支撑锂价，若快速 复产则价格或将下降，镍市受印尼政策变动预期影响，供给端或收缩， 钴市因上游供给扰动及下游需求旺盛表现偏强。 钢铁行业龙头公司调整充分，进入布局期，有望迎来主升浪，当前配置 钢铁股票潜力较高，中国可能限制低端钢材出口，预计明年矿石价格可 能下跌，对钢铁行业形成利好。 铜价受海外宏观因素波动震荡，但降息预期及流动性宽松预期增强，加 之圣诞节季节性因素影响，有望维持强势，长期来看，精炼铜供应紧张 局面将加剧，预计铜价将稳定偏强运行。 锡价受刚果（金）局势及缅甸锡矿复产影响表现强势，但高锡价抑制需 求，国内外库存增加，对后续价格形成压力，长期来看，新增项目放量 有限且需求稳健增长，锡价重心将持续上移。 Q&A 近期金属板块的表现如何？未来的趋势是什么？ 近期库存变化和去库存速度如何，对市场价格有何影响？ 上周库存下降了约 1,400 吨，相较前一周 ...

稀土行业观点交流 20251221 摘要 废料回收产能显著提升，二、三季度从 4 万吨增至 6 万吨，预计明年废 料回收产出的稀土氧化物量将占总产量的 30%，高于今年的 25%，成 为市场供应的重要补充。 铝铁硼磁材月均产量维持在 29,000 吨以上，同比增长主要受益于新能 源汽车和工业机器人需求增加，但风电和房地产领域需求有所下降。 原矿分离企业开工率已达高位，明年难以进一步提升，进口方面，基础 金属矿减少，独居石等替代品进口增加，预计未来几年将维持此趋势。 预计明年铝铁硼需求量将增长约 20%，主要得益于新能源汽车和家电以 旧换新补贴等政策支持，以及海外订单的增加。 氧化钕市场供应紧张，预计明年一、二季度现货库存仍处于低位，价格 将在 57 万到 65 万元之间波动，大规模停产进一步加剧了供应短缺。 稀土出口管制制度导致今年出口量下降，但 6 月起出口许可证审批制度 实施后，出口量缓慢恢复，预计明年一季度海外订单将明显增加。 预计 2026 年稀土配额增长幅度约为 10%，国内矿产和进口矿共同构成 产量，废料回收企业将纳入更严格的管控视野。 目前稀土产业链的供需情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）和明年（ ...