Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 19, 2025, was 5018.00 [3] - The closing prices from September 15 - 19, 2025, were 5056.00, 5068.00, 5042.00, 5014.00, and 5018.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 619.47, 621.53, 619.23, 615.54, and 615.54 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 1.32265%, 0.23734%, - 0.51302%, - 0.55534%, and 0.07978% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 609, 582, 598, 611, and 607 from September 15 - 19, 2025 [3] - The Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 624, 612, 623, 636, and 632 from September 15 - 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR) was - 136.75, for Canadian Lion (CFR) was - 510.04, and for Chilean Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was - 229.70 [4] - The port dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 780, 730, and 720 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5425, and 5625 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the national average prices for coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices for coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 16 - 19, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the change values were all 0, while the life - paper index had a change of 0, with the life - paper index on September 18 being 839 and others being 835 [4] - The profit margins for double - offset paper on September 16 - 19, 2025, were 2.0653%, 2.0989%, 2.1495%, 2.1495% respectively; for double - copper paper were 17.4005%, 17.4311%, 17.4770%, 17.4770% respectively; for white - card paper were - 12.5644%, - 12.5399%, - 12.5031%, - 12.5031% respectively; for life - paper were 7.3369%, 7.2032%, 7.2796%, 7.0505% respectively, with the change in life - paper profit margin being - 0.2291 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the coniferous - broadleaf price spreads were 1490, 1460, 1440, 1425, and 1410 respectively; coniferous - natural price spreads were 265, 250, 240, 225, and 225 respectively; coniferous - chemical mechanical price spreads were 1840, 1825, 1815, 1800, and 1800 respectively; coniferous - waste paper price spreads were 4089, 4074, 4064, 4049, and 4049 respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].

Group 1 - The company ST Morning (000488) has announced that its Shouguang base has fully resumed production [1] - The Huanggang base and Jiangxi base (second factory) are operating normally [1] - The Jiangxi base (first factory), Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base are currently under maintenance, with efforts to resume production as soon as possible [1]

消息面上，据纸引未来网，玖龙多个基地发布最新调价通知，其中最高上调50元/吨。此外，玖龙纸业 将于9月24日(本周三)举行董事会会议，以审批(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30止年度末 期业绩及其发布。该公司此前发盈喜，预计将取得本年度(截至2025年6月30日止)盈利约人民币21亿元 至人民币23亿元之间，较去年度人民币7.94亿元增长165%至190%。 申万宏源认为，Q3行业逐渐进入旺季，箱板瓦楞纸赛道已开始小幅提价。此外海外浆厂控产意愿强 烈，浆价亦有小幅反弹，对纸价形成支撑。造纸行业过去受需求疲软、新增产能持续投放影响，行业开 工率处于低位，部分赛道处于亏损状态，随着反内卷带来的潜在供给改善可能，行业供需有望改善。 玖龙纸业(02689)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报6.05港元，成交额4068.04万港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，玖龙纸业(02689)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报6.05港元，成交额4068.04万港 元。 消息面上，据纸引未来网，玖龙多个基地发布最新调价通知，其中最高上调50元/吨。此外，玖龙纸业 将于9月24日(本周三) 举行董事会会议，以审批(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30止年度末 期业绩及其发布。该公司此前发盈喜，预计将取得本年度(截至2025年6月30日止)盈利约人民币21亿元 至人民币23亿元之间，较去年度人民币7.94亿元增长165%至190%。 申万宏源认为，Q3行业逐渐进入旺季，箱板瓦楞纸赛道已开始小幅提价。此外海外浆厂控产意愿强 烈，浆价亦有小幅反弹，对纸价形成支撑。造纸行业过去受需求疲软、新增产能持续投放影响，行业开 工率处于低位，部分赛道处于亏损状态，随着反内卷带来的潜在供给改善可能，行业供需有望改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingshan Paper Industry (SH600103) experienced a limit down on September 22, 2025, with a price of 3.93 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.07% and a total market capitalization of 8.806 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's operating revenue decreased by 15.27% year-on-year, indicating significant market pressure [2] - Operating cash flow was -66.16 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 181.62%, highlighting liquidity risks [2] - Progress on the Xuanxian Pharmaceutical project is severely lagging, with only 0.82% of the investment completed, making it difficult to meet the timeline for the first phase of the project [2] Group 2: Industry and Market Environment - Despite the addition of a small-cap concept on September 19, 2025, the company faces intense competition, with net profit growth being minimal and not standing out in the industry [2] - The paper industry is currently under pressure due to changes in market demand and fluctuations in raw material prices, affecting the overall development of the sector [2] - Related sectors, including paper and optoelectronics, have also shown poor performance recently, impacting Qingshan Paper's stock price [2] Group 3: Financial and Technical Analysis - Recent fund flows indicated that while there was net buying from retail and foreign investors on September 18, 2025, retail investors' short-term trading strategies may lead to stock price volatility [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD showing bearish signals could prompt investors to sell, contributing to the stock's limit down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector in Q4, with many companies currently at historical low valuations and attractive dividend yields, suggesting a timely opportunity for left-side positioning [3]. - The introduction of new HNB products by British American Tobacco (BAT) in European markets is expected to enhance market share, with a target of reaching 50 million consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and transitioning to a smoke-free enterprise by 2035 [3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes that in August, the residential construction area decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, while the sales area of residential properties saw a 10% decline [8]. - Despite the pressure on the real estate sector, the report emphasizes the opportunity for investment in home furnishing companies due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [8]. - Key companies to watch include leading brands in soft furnishings and custom furniture, such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [8]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4800 RMB/ton (down 18.75 RMB), while corrugated paper increased to 2791.25 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB) [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong supply chain management and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [8]. Light Industry Consumption - In August, sales of sanitary napkins on e-commerce platforms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Nais Princess brand showing a significant growth of 41% [10]. - The report anticipates a boost in sales for personal care brands as the e-commerce sales season approaches, highlighting companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Steady Medical [10]. Export Chain - The report notes that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to improved demand in the U.S. real estate sector, positively impacting export-oriented home furnishing companies [10]. - Companies to monitor in the export chain include Zhongxin Co., Jiangxin Home, and Zhejiang Natural [10]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the launch of BAT's GLO HILO in several European markets, projecting a continued increase in market share for HNB products [10]. - It recommends focusing on companies that have established partnerships in the electronic cigarette and HNB product sectors, such as Smoore International [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut in the US and expected demand improvement could catalyze growth in sectors such as smart glasses and new tobacco products [2][3] - The report emphasizes the potential for export recovery due to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit companies with strong overseas production capabilities [2][4] - The smart glasses sector is seeing product improvements and optimization of industry pain points, which may lead to high growth in sales [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply disruptions in pulp continue, with UPM extending maintenance at its Kaukas pulp mill until October 11, 2025, impacting production [2] - Price adjustments for various types of pulp are noted, with expectations of price increases from paper companies in Q4 [2] Exports - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and home consumption [2] - Companies with robust overseas production are anticipated to show greater resilience and improved export orders [2][4] New Tobacco - Increased competition in Japan's heated tobacco market is noted, with major players reducing prices to enhance market share [2][3] - The report anticipates growth in sales of new tobacco products, particularly in Europe and North America [3] Smart Glasses - Meta's launch of new AI smart glasses with improved features is expected to enhance market appeal and sales [3] - The report suggests that the industry may see high growth in sales due to these advancements [3] Packaging - The report discusses the strong overseas expansion of packaging leaders, with expectations of increased profitability [2] - Companies are focusing on high-margin clients and expanding their overseas production capabilities [2] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes a positive outlook for traditional jewelry brands despite challenges from rising gold prices [2] - Companies are expected to adapt their strategies to maintain sales growth [2] Two-Wheel Vehicles - The electric three-wheeler market is seen as having growth potential, with new product launches from leading companies [2] - The report highlights strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing performance in the electric motorcycle segment [2] E-commerce - The report indicates that cross-border e-commerce sellers are expected to maintain stable performance, with a focus on optimizing operations [2] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to drive sales growth [4] Pet Products - The pet industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with new high-end products being introduced [2] - Companies are focusing on brand development to enhance market presence [4] IP Retail - The report highlights the strong performance of brands like Pop Mart in the global market, with plans for further expansion [2] - New product launches are expected to drive sales during the upcoming holiday season [4] Maternal and Child Products - Recent government policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to benefit the maternal and child retail sector [5] - Leading companies are positioned to capitalize on these policy changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy by the government is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the paper industry, leading to price stabilization and enhanced profitability for companies in the sector [1][4]. Industry Summary - The paper industry is currently facing challenges such as overcapacity, price wars, and shrinking profits. However, the "anti-involution" policy aims to guide the industry towards better practices, as highlighted by the Guangdong Paper Association's initiative to resist chaotic low-price competition and optimize capacity structure [1][2]. - The supply of corrugated paper is expected to see a slight increase in the first half of 2025, with over 2 million tons of new boxboard paper capacity anticipated to be released in the second half, maintaining pressure on the supply side [2]. Company Summary - As of September 19, 2025, the company's stock price is 1.92 yuan, down 1.54% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 10.505 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper sector [1]. - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 9.50% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from 8.69% in the same period last year. The gross margin for the paper segment rose from 6.74% to 8.05%, attributed to lean production and cost reduction efforts [3][4]. - The company will not distribute profits or increase share capital due to a negative net profit for 2024. However, it plans to adhere to a shareholder return plan that mandates a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the annual net profit in the future [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company holds a total of 1,352 patents, including 148 invention patents, covering various fields such as paper making, environmental protection, and electrical control [3][4].