轻工制造 | 造纸 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 15 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 胡文瀚 huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | | | | | | 53.00 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年 / 最 | 高 | | | | | | 低 | | 内 | 最 | | 一 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 7,751.25 | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 7,694.16 | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 146.25 | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 22.03 | | | | | | | | | ...

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on January 15, with Minshida leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the paper sector included: - Rongsheng Environmental: closed at 13.40, up 1.21% with a trading volume of 29,700 lots [1] - Qifeng New Materials: closed at 8.60, up 0.82% with a trading volume of 78,600 lots [1] - Significant decliners included: - Minshida: closed at 53.00, down 7.70% with a trading volume of 62,500 lots [2] - Zhishi Paper: closed at 5.39, down 3.23% with a trading volume of 735,700 lots [2] Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 268 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Sun Paper: net inflow of 15.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bohui Paper: net inflow of 5.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Qifeng New Materials: net inflow of 1.68 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The corrugated and boxboard paper market continues to experience a downward price trend, with large paper mills maintaining price protection policies while smaller mills are offering discounts due to inventory pressure [1] - Although there has been an increase in orders from downstream packaging factories ahead of the Spring Festival, there remains a cautious sentiment, leading to a focus on demand-based procurement [1] - The prices of major raw materials, particularly waste paper, have stabilized, providing some support to paper prices from the cost side [1] Group 2 - Despite the significant inventory pressure faced by upstream paper mills, the combination of increased orders before the holiday and cost support is expected to narrow the price decline in the corrugated and boxboard paper market [1]

2026 年 1 月 15 日 胶版印刷纸：空单持有 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2026/1/13 | 2026/1/12 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税成本 | 5292 | 5293 | -1 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has resumed operations at all its factories and is experiencing good production and sales performance, with a steady increase in capacity utilization [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - The company has fully resumed operations at its Shouguang, Huanggang, Jilin, and Jiangxi bases [1] - Production and sales conditions at each base are reported to be good [1] - Capacity utilization is steadily improving across the bases [1] Group 2: Strategic Measures - The company is implementing strict cost control, optimizing product structure, developing high value-added products, and disposing of non-core assets to enhance operational efficiency [1] - Significant results have been achieved through these measures [1] - The company will continue to focus on its main business and deepen cost reduction and efficiency improvement across all processes, as well as develop new products [1]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.35% on January 14, with Wuzhou Special Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose to 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] - Notable gainers in the paper sector included Minshida, which rose by 13.17% to a closing price of 57.42, and Annie Co., which increased by 9.97% to 11.47 [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net inflow of 124 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 43.19 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Annie Co. with 224 million yuan and Minshida with 67.6 million yuan [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a significant outflow from stocks like Sun Paper, which had a net outflow of 57.78 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province has successfully entered the 10 trillion yuan economic club in 2025, with Jining city exemplifying innovative transformation from a resource-based economy to a high-quality development model [1] Group 1: Economic Development - Jining port achieved a cargo throughput of 116 million tons in 2025, marking a 19.6% year-on-year increase, becoming the first inland port in northern China to reach this milestone [2] - The city has established 360 kilometers of high-grade waterways, accounting for 58% of the province's inland waterways, and 103 berths for vessels over 1,000 tons, representing 68% of the province's total [3] - Jining's industrial economy saw a year-on-year growth of 7.8% from January to November 2025, with the manufacturing sector growing by 10.2%, contributing to 61% of the industrial output [9] Group 2: Infrastructure and Logistics - Jining is developing a multi-modal transport system with a focus on high-grade waterways and dedicated railway lines, enhancing its position as a northern inland shipping hub [3] - The city is implementing a "front port - middle production - back garden" model, establishing seven major logistics parks to integrate port operations with local industries [4] - Jining's logistics network now covers 20 provinces, 152 cities, and extends to 19 countries, marking a significant leap in its port and shipping capabilities [5] Group 3: Industrial Transformation - Jining is focusing on a "number one project" in industrial economy, emphasizing the importance of the manufacturing sector and green, low-carbon development [6] - The city has initiated a three-year action plan for technological upgrades, with 251 projects included in the provincial key directory, maintaining the highest number in the province for four consecutive years [8] - New energy projects and smart manufacturing initiatives are being developed, including a significant investment in industrial robots and low-altitude economy sectors [8] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Development - Jining is transforming its cultural tourism sector, with the launch of immersive experiences that attract significant visitor numbers, such as the "Ru Water Source" night show [10][11] - The city aims to build a "world cultural tourism city," leveraging its rich cultural heritage to drive high-quality development [11] - Jining's tourism service system is being enhanced to improve the overall quality of visitor experiences, with expectations of receiving over 100 million domestic tourists in 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rich history and cultural significance of traditional paper-making in Fuyang, particularly through the "Yuezhuzhai" workshop, which preserves ancient techniques and has recently been recognized as a living heritage site [10][11]. Group 1: Traditional Paper-Making Techniques - The traditional paper-making process involves 72 intricate steps, requiring several months to complete a single piece of Yuan paper, emphasizing the importance of quality materials and methods [11]. - The workshop utilizes local resources, such as high-quality bamboo and spring water, to create paper that is both durable and aesthetically pleasing [11][12]. - The craft has been passed down through generations, with the current inheritor, Pan Xiaoying, representing the ninth generation of artisans dedicated to this heritage [11][12]. Group 2: Cultural and Historical Significance - Fuyang's paper-making tradition dates back over 1,900 years, with its bamboo paper known for its thinness and strength, making it highly sought after by artists and collectors [13]. - The region has produced notable paper products that have gained recognition both domestically and internationally, contributing to Fuyang's reputation as a "hometown of paper-making" [13]. - Recent archaeological efforts have uncovered ancient paper-making sites, further solidifying Fuyang's historical importance in the craft [13][15]. Group 3: Preservation and Innovation - The recent cultural heritage survey has led to the identification and protection of multiple paper-making sites, including "Yuezhuzhai," ensuring the continuation of this traditional craft [15]. - Innovative measures have been implemented to protect historical buildings and sites, allowing for the preservation of cultural heritage while accommodating modern needs [15]. - The workshop has adapted to contemporary demands by expanding the size of bamboo paper and reviving traditional paper types, thus appealing to modern artists [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and stock activity of Shanying International (600567) as of January 13, 2026, with a closing price of 1.71 yuan, showing no change from the previous day [1] - The company reported a main revenue of 21.133 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -290 million yuan, a significant decline of 522.74% [2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 7.291 billion yuan, down 0.77% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -331 million yuan, a drastic drop of 636.03% [2] Group 2 - The company has a debt ratio of 67.69%, with investment income of 37.952 million yuan and financial expenses of 624 million yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 7.91% [2] - In the last 90 days, two institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with one buy rating and one hold rating [3] - The article explains the concept of fund flow, indicating that the net flow of funds is determined by the difference between buying and selling pressures, with specific definitions for main funds, speculative funds, and retail funds [3]