Report Title - Zhengzhou Sugar Expected to Move in a Range Amid International Supply Surplus and Short - term Cost Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the expectation of supply surplus has widened, with bearish factors dominant. International sugar prices have continuously broken through support levels and are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Domestically, the new cane sugar season has officially started, with good supply expectations. The import volume has declined, and the impact of international supply has weakened. In the short - term, it is expected to move in a range, with attention on the 5500 resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory Main Views - Internationally, the supply surplus expectation has expanded, and international sugar prices are under pressure. In October, the first half of Brazil's central - southern region produced 2484000 tons of sugar, a 1.25% year - on - year increase. Institutions expect increased sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season. Domestically, import data has declined, and Zhengzhou sugar is moving in a range. New domestic sugar has not been launched yet, and imported sugar still dominates the supply. In October, the forecasted arrival of imported sugar was 174500 tons, a month - on - month decline. The new sugar - cane season is expected to have good supply, and attention should be paid to the sugar yield and subsequent weather [6]. Market Review - In October, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract continuously broke through support levels and declined, while the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: Brazil's sugar production in September and the first half of October increased significantly year - on - year, with a high sugar - making ratio. In September, both the export volume and price of sugar decreased. India and Thailand are expected to have high yields in the 25/26 season due to good weather conditions, and their exportable volumes are expected to increase [10]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of September 2025, the 24/25 season produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, a 12% year - on - year increase. The 25/26 season is expected to produce 11.7 million tons of sugar, a slight year - on - year increase [10][29]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of September, the new industrial sugar inventory was 765000 tons, a 114.2% year - on - year increase. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 442100 tons and 204700 tons respectively [10]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In October, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of October 31, the spot quotes in Liuzhou, Kunming, and Nanning were 5730 yuan/ton, 5710 yuan/ton, and 5730 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot index price of white sugar was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [10][38]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In September, China imported 550000 tons of sugar, and the forecasted arrival of imported sugar in October was 174500 tons. In October, the import price of sugar declined, and the profit from out - of - quota imports increased, making the imported sugar market more competitive [10]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The industrial sugar consumption in 2025 is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons from the previous year [10][47]. Spread Tracking - The report mentions various sugar contract spreads such as 91 spread, 15 spread, 59 spread, and the basis spreads of 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [49][51][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Globally, the increase in production in major sugar-producing regions is being realized. Brazil's cumulative sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and the fundamental outlook for raw sugar is weak, with a potential short - term rebound after over - decline. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase and the suspension of imports of some enterprises' syrups and premixes [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts SR09, SR01, and SR05, the closing prices are 5,434, 5,499, and 5,433 respectively, with price increases of 12, 16, and 20, and price increase percentages of 0.22%, 0.29%, and 0.37% respectively. The trading volumes are 1,509, 173,994, and 20,199, and the changes in trading volumes are 817, 6,995, and 6,306. The open interests are 9,065, 372,791, and 97,748, with changes of - 2, 21, and 2,235 [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Dali, Wuhan, Nanning, etc. are reported. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5,760 with no change, while the price in Dali is 5,905 with a decrease of 15 [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The SR5 - SR01 spread is - 66, the SR09 - SR5 spread is 1, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is - 65, with changes of 0, - 8, and - 4 respectively. The import profit analysis shows that for Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3,961 and the out - of - quota price is 5,030, with spreads of 730, 820, and 469 compared to Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market respectively. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 4,020 and the out - of - quota price is 5,107, with corresponding spreads [3] 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Important Information**: In the first half of October 2025, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. India's Uttar Pradesh government raised the sugarcane purchase price, which is expected to bring an additional income of about 300 billion rupees (about 24.1 billion yuan) to local sugarcane farmers. The sugar production situation in the main domestic producing areas in the 2025/26 season is relatively clear, with an expected national sugar production of 11.56 million tons, an increase of 394,000 tons compared to the previous season [5][7][8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the increase in Brazilian sugar production is approaching reality, and the support of ethanol for sugar has weakened, so the raw sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term with a short - term rebound. Domestically, considering the start of sugar mills and the lower - than - expected increase in sugar production, as well as the suspension of some imports, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and may rebound in the short - term, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger in the short - term. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, the sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different futures contracts, and the spread between different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: Repairing the Basis, Zhengzhou Sugar Shows Strength [5] Core Viewpoints - The peak production season in central - southern Brazil has passed, and the later crushing volume may gradually decline. However, India and Thailand are entering a new sugar - making season, so the supply pressure remains [8][57]. - With the raw sugar price falling below 15 cents, major global sugar - producing regions are in a loss state. But whether it will lead to production cuts is an issue for the next season and cannot improve the current sugar price [8][57]. - Market research institutions estimate that the sugar production in Guangxi for the 25/26 season will be around 6.7 million tons, an increase of about 0.5 million tons year - on - year [8][57]. - Downstream enterprises report weak demand due to the overall macro - economic situation and low enthusiasm for sugar procurement [8][57]. - Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has been significantly stronger than raw sugar. This is mainly because the Zhengzhou sugar 601 contract is approaching the delivery month. The large basis in the early stage and the early withdrawal of speculative short - position funds without delivery intention have led to a rebound in the futures price. It is a short - term structural market, and there is a lack of bullish support in the medium - term fundamentals [8][57]. Section Summaries 1. Futures Market Review - In October, the raw sugar index showed a continuous four - week decline and a downward - breaking trend, breaking through the 15 - cent and 14 - cent marks and approaching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in October, with the price once falling below the 5400 mark and then rebounding and stabilizing. The rebound was stopped at the 10 - week moving average and the 40 - day moving average [14]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - In October, the spot price of sugar continued to decline. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group dropped from 5810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5700 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan dropped from 5710 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong dropped from 5900 yuan/ton to 5870 yuan/ton [18]. - In October, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus effective forecasts continued to decrease. At the beginning of the month, there were 9464, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 8116. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 9464 to 7530, and the effective forecasts increased from 0 to 586 [18]. 3. Futures Market Structure Analysis - In October, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken while the futures market oscillated horizontally, and the basis continued to shrink. The basis of the 2601 contract against the Nanning spot price decreased from 325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 206 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the basis of the 2605 contract decreased from 356 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [22]. - In October, the spread between the main January contract and the secondary main May contract of Zhengzhou sugar widened significantly, mainly because the departure of short - position speculators in the near - month contract made the 01 contract stronger. The spread increased from 35 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 65 yuan/ton at the end of the month [22]. - In October, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened, reaching 101 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at a slight profit level for raw sugar processing enterprises [25]. - As of September 23, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 125,628 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898,935 contracts [25]. 4. Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [29]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons. The sales volume in May was relatively low compared to the same period in the past five years [31]. - At the end of May 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [35]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In September 2025, the sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar import volume in the country for this sugar - making season was 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12 tons [39]. - In September, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.5283 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 625,600 tons. In October, China suspended the import of all syrup and premixed sugar from Thailand, and policy optimization may suppress short - term imports [39][40]. - In October, the price of overseas raw sugar continued to decline, and the trend of Zhengzhou sugar was weakly oscillating, with the internal - external price spread widening. The processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota increased from around 1420 yuan/ton at the beginning of October to 1785 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the processing profit outside the quota increased from around 193 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [40]. 6. Production in Overseas Major Producing Countries - In the first half of October 2025, in central - southern Brazil, there were 255 production units in operation (3 less than the same period in the previous season). The sugar cane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2%. The total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% [45][47]. - As of October 16, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 524.957 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%. The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%. The cumulative total ethanol production was 25.036 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23% [48]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has become increasingly tense. As of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased from 83 to 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased to 3.7272 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous week [52]. 7. Exchange Rate Factors - In October, the US dollar index showed a strong oscillation. The Brazilian real depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar [54]. - On October 29, local time, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [55]. 8. Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the raw sugar market remains. Although the production in central - southern Brazil may decline, India and Thailand are starting a new season. The current low price may not lead to production cuts in the short term [57]. - For the domestic sugar market, the supply may increase, but the demand is weak. The recent strength of Zhengzhou sugar is a short - term structural phenomenon, and there is a lack of medium - term bullish factors [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the expected import volume in October is set to decrease, and there is support from news related to syrup and premixed powder. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, leading to short - term low - level operation of sugar prices [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5499 yuan/ton, with a 16 - unit increase; the main contract position is 372791 lots, up 21 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7462, down 68; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 52742 lots, up 5106 lots. The total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3990 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; within the quota for Thai sugar, it is 4049 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5052 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 5129 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5695 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5720 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 5740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44098 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550000 tons, an increase of 5.49%; the Brazilian monthly sugar export volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 1512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.24%, an increase of 0.45%; for put options, it is 7.24%, an increase of 0.44%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.41%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the Chengdu Sugar Conference on November 1 - 2, the estimated sugar production for the 25/26 crushing season was announced. The national production is expected to increase to 1170 million tons, with 680 million tons in Guangxi, 260 million tons in Yunnan, 60 million tons in Guangdong, 70 million tons in Inner Mongolia, and 75 million tons in Xinjiang. In the first half of October 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 3403.7 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and produced 248.4 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year. As of October 16 in the 25/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.249 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to strengthened import control on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices rebounded recently, but the external market remained weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With an expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 new crushing season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Syrup and Premix Import Situation - The number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrups and premixes were suspended by the customs increased from 35 to 44, and the effective ones were left with 16. The scope of suspended imports expanded from tariff number 170290 to 2106906. In September 2025, the total import volume of syrups and white sugar premixes (including tariff numbers 170290 and 2106906) was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the total import volume was 152.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62.96 tons. Stricter supervision on tariff number 2106906 is expected to further reduce future imports and boost Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Import Cost and Profit - Based on the March contract price of raw sugar, on October 30, the estimated out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was 5025 yuan/ton, and the in - quota import cost was 4049 yuan/ton. For the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar, the in - quota import profit was 1423 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import profit was 447 yuan/ton. For the spot, the current import - processed sugar price was about 6050 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota spot import profit reached 905 yuan/ton, a five - year high, indicating great import pressure next year. With an expected increase in domestic production in the new crushing season, the supply pressure will still increase [6]. Brazilian Sugar Production - Datagro predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season would reach 4142 tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous season. For the 2026/27 crushing season, the predicted sugar production was 4230 tons, an increase of 88 tons from the current season. In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3403.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The sugar production was 248.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. As of the first half of October in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [12][13]. Northern Hemisphere Sugar Production Forecast - The ISMA estimated that India's total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would increase by 18% to about 3490 tons. The OSCB estimated that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 1005 tons, basically the same as the previous season. With an expected increase in production in major northern - hemisphere sugar - producing countries, the upward space for raw sugar is limited [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market outlook: expected to be volatile and weak. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern, with an anticipated restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. Concerns about global consumption are raised due to the accelerated crushing progress in central - southern Brazil and a year - on - year decline in exports [3][30]. - Domestic market outlook: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase steadily, but the sugar yield in Guangxi has declined, leading to a likely rise in production costs. Zhengzhou sugar trends follow the international raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a high level [3][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [1][5]. - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%); the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [1][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Spot and futures prices: the spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,000 tons. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.98 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2][11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [3][30]. 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [5]. - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%) [5]. 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [12]. 3.4.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: the ISO predicts a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season [17]. - Brazil: as of October 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in central - southern Brazil is 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%; sugar production is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; alcohol production is 25.04 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production is 52.36%, compared with 48.74% in the same period of the previous year [17]. - India: as of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 sugar season is 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [17]. - Thailand: the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [18]. - China: the CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+ 100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In September 2025, sugar imports are 550,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons (- 120,000 tons) [18]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [30].

Core Viewpoint - Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911) announced that the company has no overdue guarantees, is not involved in any litigation related to guarantees, and has not incurred losses due to being ruled against in guarantee-related cases [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Company Status** - Guangnong Sugar Industry confirmed the absence of overdue guarantees [1] - The company is not involved in any lawsuits concerning guarantees [1] - There are no losses incurred from guarantee-related judgments against the company [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - In the first half of October 2025, the sugar cane crushing and sugar production progress in the central - southern region of Brazil slowed down significantly. As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 0.89% year - on - year [5] - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is expected to decrease month - on - month. Due to news about syrups and premixes, there is support at the lower level, but the loose supply - demand situation still pressures the sugar market. In the short term, sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - Future factors to watch include domestic production and sales, and new - season production forecasts [6] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market International Market - The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.1 cents per pound, down 0.62 cents per pound from last week [15] Domestic Futures Market - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was - 57,848 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 7,530 [23] - The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was + 70 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 257 yuan/ton [28] Domestic Spot Market - As of October 31, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,710 yuan/ton [34] - This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,790 yuan/ton, up 176 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 509 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,512 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 432 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton from last week [40] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply Side - As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [44][56] - As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [47] - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [51] Demand Side - As of the end of September 2025, sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing [56] - In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [60] Group 4: Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market Option Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar option market is presented in the relevant chart [62] Stock Market - The price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented in the relevant chart [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Global sugar supply surplus expectations suppress international sugar prices. In the short - term, ICE raw sugar is expected to remain weak. In China, although there are some positive factors, the medium - long - term pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices remains, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Pulp**: The market risk preference is boosted, but the supply of wood pulp remains high, and the demand improvement is limited. The pulp valuation is not high, but the upward drive is weak, and the rise height may be restricted [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The improvement in demand for finished paper is limited, and there is supply pressure. Although there is some cost support, the price is difficult to rise significantly [6]. - **Cotton**: The tariff adjustment in Sino - US trade negotiations supports textile and clothing exports. However, the supply pressure in the northern hemisphere still exists, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [8]. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - **Apple**: The new season's apples have smaller fruit sizes and lower high - quality fruit rates, which support the futures price. However, the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward space. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Jujube**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and new jujubes are on the market. The futures price is expected to be in a shock - falling state [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation Fresh Fruit Futures | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Smaller fruit sizes and lower high - quality fruit rates in the new season, the futures price center moves up | 7900 - 8000 | 9700 - 9800 | | Jujube 2601 | Short at high prices | High futures premium, there is pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge | 10000 - 12000 | 11000 - 11300 | [19] Soft Commodity Futures | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar 2601 | Short on rebound | Short - term rebound under the boost of good news, but new sugar is about to be listed, and the global supply - demand is expected to weaken | 5380 - 5400 | 5530 - 5500 | | Pulp 2601 | Short within the range | The valuation is not high, but there is still supply pressure, and the overall increase in finished paper prices is limited | 4800 - 4900 | 5200 - 5300 | | Double - offset Paper 2601 | Short on rebound | The cost support has increased slightly, but the demand still suppresses the price under high supply elasticity | 4100 - 4200 | 4400 - 4500 | | Cotton 2601 | Reduce short positions | The increase in new cotton production is slightly less than expected, and the Sino - US trade relationship eases | 13200 - 13300 | 13700 - 13800 | [19] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream apple prices in the producing areas remained stable. The trading in Shandong was at its peak, and the acquisition in Shaanxi was in the later stage. The market arrival volume in the sales areas increased, and the sales of high - quality goods were good [20][21]. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9103 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. New jujubes have not been concentratedly harvested, and some merchants have started to purchase [22]. Sugar Market China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes since October 27. The sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The EU has raised the yield forecast of sugar beets [24]. Pulp Market As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. As of October 28, the steam consumption of a thermal power plant in Baoding decreased, and the operating rate of household paper decreased [26]. Double - offset Paper Market As of October 29, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry decreased, and the cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, resulting in a continuous decline in profitability [27]. Cotton Market In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports increased significantly. The tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US has been reduced, and the export competitiveness will be restored [28]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9268 | 70 | 0.76% | | Jujube 2601 | 10225 | - 270 | - 2.57% | | Sugar 2601 | 5472 | - 22 | - 0.40% | | Pulp 2511 | 4846 | 10 | 0.21% | | Cotton 2601 | 13600 | - 20 | - 0.15% | [29] Spot Market | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0 | 0.55 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5750 | 0 | - 790 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5500 | 0 | - 700 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 450 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14843 | 3 | - 593 | [34] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 1 - 5 | - 456 | 172 | 264 | Oscillatory decline | Short at high prices | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 80 | - 75 | - 175 | Range oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 65 | 1 | 53 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 10 | - 5 | 55 | Range fluctuation | Short at high prices | [52] Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 7541 | - 84 | - 2359 | | Pulp | 224942 | - 486 | - 146925 | | Cotton | 2434 | - 26 | - 865 | [80] Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly fluctuate weakly. The large current import volume of raw sugar, increasing pressure of imported sugar arrivals, and an import cost of 5300 - 5400 are expected to suppress the futures market. With the recent start of sugar - cane crushing in Yunnan and the upcoming concentrated start in Guangxi, new selling pressure may emerge. However, as the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the market may show a resistive decline before the new domestic sugar is launched [3]. 3. Key Data Summaries Domestic Spot Prices - In Nanning, Guangxi, the warehouse price per ton of sugar is 5780 yuan, with no change; in Kunming, Yunnan, it's 5720 yuan, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan, it's 5565 yuan, also unchanged; and in Rizhao, Shandong, it's 5850 yuan, with no change [3]. Futures Prices - SR01 is at 5472 yuan, down 22 yuan; SR05 is at 5407 yuan, down 23 yuan; SR01 - 05 data is not provided; the difference between SR01 and SR05 is not given [3]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB to USD exchange rate is 7.1183, up 0.0019; the Brazilian real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is at 14.43, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 64.3, unchanged [3].