证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 09 年 月 日 宇通客车（600066.SH） 内需与出口共振，业绩增长突出 事件。公司发布财报，2024 年营业收入 372.2 亿元，同比增长 37.6%， 归母净利润为 41.2 亿元，同比增长 126.5%；2025Q1 营业收入 64.2 亿 元，同比减少 3%，归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比增长 14.9%。 内需与出口共振，业绩增长突出。受益于国内旅游市场向好、以旧换新带 动及国产客车产品竞争力的提升，2024 年，宇通客车累计销售客车 4.69 万辆，同比+28.5%，对内和出口销售分别为 3.29 万辆/1.4 万辆，同比分 别+24.9%/+37.7%，内需及出口均实现较好增长，带动公司业绩表现超 预期，同比增长超 100%。2024 年归母净利润/Q4 单季度归母净利润分别 为 41.2/16.8 亿元，盈利靠近历史高点。2025Q1，公司客车销售 9011 台， 同比 16.6%，根据客车网数据，公司大中型客车出口 1329 台，同比 +35.5%，市场占比 21.09%，超行业 2 成，归母净利润实现 7. ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 09 年 月 日 事件。公司发布财报，2024 年营业收入 372.2 亿元，同比增长 37.6%， 归母净利润为 41.2 亿元，同比增长 126.5%；2025Q1 营业收入 64.2 亿 元，同比减少 3%，归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比增长 14.9%。 内需与出口共振，业绩增长突出。受益于国内旅游市场向好、以旧换新带 动及国产客车产品竞争力的提升，2024 年，宇通客车累计销售客车 4.69 万辆，同比+28.5%，对内和出口销售分别为 3.29 万辆/1.4 万辆，同比分 别+24.9%/+37.7%，内需及出口均实现较好增长，带动公司业绩表现超 预期，同比增长超 100%。2024 年归母净利润/Q4 单季度归母净利润分别 为 41.2/16.8 亿元，盈利靠近历史高点。2025Q1，公司客车销售 9011 台， 同比 16.6%，根据客车网数据，公司大中型客车出口 1329 台，同比 +35.5%，市场占比 21.09%，超行业 2 成，归母净利润实现 7.55 亿元， 同比增长 14.9%。 会计调整影响毛利率，盈利 ...

• 中国重汽一季度销量 7.4 万辆，国内市场表现良好，出口 3.3 万辆同比下 降，主要受俄罗斯市场影响，但非洲、东南亚、中东、南美等地保持增长。 • 国家以旧换新政策逐步落地，预计将积极拉动国内重卡需求，上海、四川 等省份已开始实施，补贴对销量有一定程度的促进作用。 • 预计二季度商用车市场销量同比增长率可能达到两位数，主要受益于国内 需求上升，特别是新能源需求增加。 • 新能源商用车销量显著增长，中国重汽市场份额达 14%，位居行业前三， 但整个新能源商用车行业目前仍处于亏损状态。 • 公司采取采购降本、设计降本和工艺降本等措施以改善经营状况，并坚持 全年 14 万台的出口目标，尽管俄罗斯市场下滑超预期。 • 俄罗斯市场库存较高，中国品牌库存约 4 万台，中国重汽库存约六七千台， 预计需要四到五个月消化，且受政府行政手段影响，销量下滑。 • 国内库存稳定，全行业库存约 17.5 万辆，公司库存约 5 万辆，全年预期 销量为 65 万到 70 万辆，天然气车辆渗透率约 37-38%，以旧换新政策有 望推动其发展。 Q&A 商用车板块的市场行情及未来趋势如何？ 商用车板块的市场行情是以年维度的趋势进行分析。 ...

Core Viewpoint - DeepWay is positioning itself as a technology-driven enterprise in the smart truck sector, emphasizing the importance of integrated design and self-developed technologies in its products [1] Group 1: Company Development - DeepWay launched its first prototype in September 2021 and is set to deliver over 3,000 units in 2024, achieving a tenfold year-on-year growth and ranking among the top ten in the industry [1] - The company introduced two new models, the Starry Sky II and the Starry Path, both equipped with self-developed power systems and L2-level combined auxiliary driving systems, marking a significant breakthrough in the integration of intelligence and electrification in commercial heavy trucks [1] Group 2: Product Features - The Starry Sky II features upgrades such as increased air intake for better cooling, a mixed Yuan 505 kWh battery, and a true 900V high-voltage platform, reducing charging time from 20% to 80% to just 30 minutes, suitable for various transportation scenarios [2] - The Starry Path, based on the same platform as the Starry Sky II, is designed for short-distance transportation, offering a balance of performance and cost advantages [2] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - The self-developed power system accounts for over 60% of the vehicle's cost, showcasing the company's technological leadership and autonomy, while also enhancing adaptability to complex working conditions [2] - The new models utilize the largest single-box battery design in the industry, reducing weight by approximately 300 kg, and maintaining less than 10% battery capacity loss in extreme cold conditions [3] - The company has developed a single-motor four-speed electric drive bridge, achieving over 816 horsepower and a top speed of 130 km/h, even under full load [3] Group 4: Intelligent Systems - DeepWay's trucks are equipped with L2-level combined auxiliary driving systems, which can reduce accident rates by 78% and driver fatigue by 30% to 60%, increasing annual profitability by 19,000 yuan per vehicle [3] - The company is also developing L4-level intelligent convoy transportation systems and single-vehicle transportation systems, with deliveries expected to begin this year [3] Group 5: Market Performance - DeepWay has signed purchase agreements for a total of 2,273 units of new energy heavy trucks during the launch event, with an additional 870 units in international orders as of May this year [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $169.8 million, down from $194.6 million in the prior year, primarily due to softening in global construction and agriculture end markets as well as North American Class eight truck demand [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.8 million, compared to $9.7 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 3.4%, down 160 basis points from 5% in Q1 2024 [12][13] - Free cash flow from continuing operations improved to $11.2 million compared to negative $6.5 million in the prior year, supported by better working capital management and reduced capital expenditures [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Seating segment revenues decreased by 9% to $73.4 million, with adjusted operating income of $2.7 million, a decrease of $100,000 compared to the prior year [16] - Global Electrical segment revenues decreased by 14% to $50.5 million, with adjusted operating income of $200,000, down $1.3 million from the prior year [17] - Trim Systems and Components revenues decreased by 17% to $45.9 million, with adjusted operating income of $1.6 million, a decrease of $3.1 million compared to the prior year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Class eight heavy truck build forecast for 2025 indicates a 23% decline in year-over-year volumes, with a projected 19% increase in truck builds anticipated in 2026 [20] - The construction market is expected to decline by approximately 5% to 15%, while the agriculture market is anticipated to decline in the same range due to higher interest rates and lower commodity prices [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has shifted to a new segment structure to enhance clarity and focus within each business unit, aiming to better align with customers and end markets [4][5] - Strategic actions taken in 2024 are expected to lower costs and improve operational efficiency, with a focus on reducing freight, labor, and overhead costs [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing new business opportunities while managing working capital and reducing capital expenditures by 50% in 2025 [22][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic challenges and emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility and agility in operations to respond to market changes [37][39] - The company expects to generate at least $20 million of free cash flow in 2025, which will be used to pay down debt, with a focus on reducing working capital [25] Other Important Information - The company has decided to discontinue reporting new business wins due to the current macroeconomic environment, believing that annual guidance is a better way to contextualize future results [7][8] - The net leverage ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was five times, with expectations to decline throughout 2025 and 2026 as the company works towards a targeted two times level [14][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the potential for gross margin improvement in a normalized environment? - Management sees potential for gross margin to reach around 15% in a normalized environment, with a focus on self-help initiatives and market recovery [30][31] Question: How does the company view the current downturn in end markets? - Management acknowledges the extended downturn but believes they have adequate plans in place to manage costs and maintain EBITDA and cash flow [36][37] Question: What percentage of COGS is impacted by tariffs? - The largest exposure is related to tariffs from Mexico and Canada, with a smaller percentage from China, primarily affecting the global seating business [51][54] Question: How is the revenue profile for April compared to March? - Revenue for April is in line with expectations set in February and March, with no significant shifts noted [63] Question: What cost-saving measures remain to be implemented in 2025? - Continued focus on operational and material cost reductions, labor productivity, and supply chain optimization are key areas of focus for 2025 [69][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $169.8 million, down from $194.6 million in the prior year, primarily due to softening in global construction and agriculture end markets as well as North American Class eight truck demand [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $5.8 million, compared to $9.7 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 3.4%, down 160 basis points from 5% in Q1 2024 [12][13] - The company reported a net loss of $3.1 million or a loss of $0.09 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $1.4 million or $0.05 per diluted share in the prior year [13] - Free cash flow from continuing operations was $11.2 million, a significant improvement from negative $6.5 million in the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Seating segment revenues decreased by 9% to $73.4 million, with adjusted operating income of $2.7 million, a decrease of $0.1 million compared to the previous year [15] - Global Electrical segment revenues fell 14% to $50.5 million, with adjusted operating income of $200,000, down $1.3 million from the prior year [17] - Trim Systems and Components revenues decreased by 17% to $45.9 million, with adjusted operating income of $1.6 million, a decrease of $3.1 million compared to the prior year [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Class eight heavy truck build forecast for 2025 indicates a 23% decline in year-over-year volumes, with a projected 19% increase in 2026 [20] - The construction market is expected to decline by approximately 5% to 15%, while the agriculture market is anticipated to decline in the same range due to higher interest rates and lower commodity prices [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has shifted to a new segment structure to enhance clarity and focus within each business unit, aiming to better align with customers and end markets [5] - Strategic actions taken in 2024 are expected to lower costs and improve operational efficiency, with a focus on reducing working capital and capital expenditures [22][23] - The company is actively pursuing new business opportunities while managing costs and improving cash generation [8][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current macroeconomic challenges and the impact on customer demand, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency and cost management [7][20] - The company remains optimistic about long-term recovery in construction and agriculture markets despite current softness [21] - Management expects to generate at least $20 million of free cash flow in 2025, which will be used to pay down debt [26] Other Important Information - The company has decided to discontinue reporting new business wins due to the current macroeconomic environment and customer challenges in predicting future program ramps [7] - The company is focused on mitigating the impact of tariffs and broader macroeconomic headwinds through strategic portfolio actions and improved cash generation [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the potential for gross margin improvement in a normalized environment? - Management indicated that they see potential for gross margins to reach around 15% in a normalized environment, with a focus on operational improvements [29][31] Question: How does the current market outlook compare to previous downturns? - Management acknowledged the current extended downturn but emphasized their preparedness and actions taken to stabilize operations and improve margins [36][38] Question: What percentage of COGS is impacted by tariffs? - Management noted that the largest exposure is related to tariffs from Mexico and Canada, with a smaller percentage from China, estimated to be less than 10% of the cost structure [48][49] Question: What are the covenant levels for the company's net leverage ratio? - The net leverage ratio is currently at five times, with covenant levels around four times, gradually stepping down throughout the year [54][55]

Group 1: Company Performance - Wens Foodstuff's April chicken sales revenue was 2.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.01% [1] - Wens Foodstuff sold 10.381 million chickens in April, a year-on-year increase of 10.87% [1] - Wens Foodstuff's average chicken selling price was 11.24 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 14.91% [1] - Zhongtong Bus's April vehicle sales volume was 1,046 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04% [1][2] - Kemin Food's April pig sales revenue reached 70.9048 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.04% [3] - Muyuan Foods sold 6.573 million pigs in April, a year-on-year increase of 51.80% [5] - Muyuan Foods' pig sales revenue was 12.595 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 53.42% [5] - Xiamen Airport's April passenger throughput was 2.3881 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.73% [24] - Daqin Railway's April cargo transport volume was 30.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.99% [26] - Shaanxi Coal's April coal production was 14.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78% [28] Group 2: Industry Overview - Wens Foodstuff operates in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, specifically in pig farming [1] - Zhongtong Bus operates in the automotive industry, focusing on commercial vehicles [2] - Kemin Food operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in food processing [3] - Muyuan Foods is also in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, focusing on pig farming [5] - Xiamen Airport is part of the transportation industry, specifically in airport operations [24] - Daqin Railway operates in the coal industry, focusing on coal mining and transportation [26] - Shaanxi Coal is also in the coal industry, focusing on coal mining and related services [28]

点击蓝字 关注我们 乘联分会&科瑞咨询联合发布 新能源商用车周报 (总第0101期 2025年4月第5周) ll 自录 CONTENTS 僵）行业数据 · 市场：市场：新能源商用车销量一览 企业动态 · 江淮汽车:江淮新能源轻卡ES9深圳上市140度车型预售 供应链 政策法规 · 华为数字能源：华为数字能源开启全民度电十公里时代 · 威睿电动：威睿电动首条X-PIN定子线产业化取得重大突破 交通运输部等十部门发布关于推动交通运输与能源融合发展的 指导意见 4月25日，交通运输部等十部门发布关于推动交通运输与能源融 合发展的指导意见。意见指出，到2027年，交通沿线非化石能 源装机≥500万千瓦,到2035年,纯电动成为新车销售主流,新 能源重卡规模化运营。 国家能源局关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措的通知 . 4月28日，国家能源局发布关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干 举措的通知。通知指出：加快发展虚拟电厂，有序推动发展绿 电直连模式，研究出台支持智能微电网健康发展的意见，制定 推动大功率充电、提升充电基础设施运营服务质量等政策,支 持民营企业积极投资新型储能、虚拟电厂、充电基础设施、智 能微电网等能源新 ...

ESG不仅是国际通行的价值标尺，更是中国企业融入全球产业链、践行国家"双碳"战略的核心路径。日前，福田汽车发布了首份ESG报告，根据 报告显示，2024年福田汽车以61.41万辆总销量、新能源同比增长34.98%、海外出口增长17.33%的好成绩，向业界交出了一份高质量可持续发展 的"福田答卷"。进入2025年一季度，福田汽车更是以突破17万辆的总销量、净利润同比增长70.08%的表现继续领跑行业。这是福田汽车践行ESG理 念的必然成果。 01 以ESG理念抢占制高点 自2004年首次在联合国全球契约计划中被明确提出，环境、社会及治理ESG已走过20年的发展历程，逐渐由虚到实，从小众走向大众，从"选择题"成 为"必答题"。聚焦汽车行业，"加强ESG管理"也正在从车企的"场面话"变为"真心话"。 福田汽车董事长常瑞表示："站在人类可持续发展的历史新方位，福田汽车以'广种福田 造福亿万百姓'的创业初心，以'为能源革命提供绿色解决方 案'的企业使命，始终将ESG理念深植于企业战略与发展血脉之中，在深耕绿色发展、实现价值创造、推动社会进步中勇担使命，不断以'福田速度'践行国企 担当，以'福田方案'彰显中国力量。" 2 ...

再论景气线索与关税应对策略 20250505 摘要 • 宏观波动背景下，加速布局科技产业趋势是关键，尤其在市场情绪低迷时， 关注 AI、机器人、自动驾驶及恒生科技指数，这些领域具有较强的贝塔特 征，有望抓住未来反弹机会。 • 2025 年重点关注服务类消费龙头及股东回报提升的企业。3 月中下旬至 5 月上旬，关注业绩预期上修方向，如贵金属、交运、大金融、农产品和食 品加工等，这些行业将成为市场交易主线。 • 资本开支是推动科技行情的重要引擎。DeepSeek 出现后，国内科技突破 预期改变，政府、私人部门及企业纷纷投入资本开支，将继续推动科技行 业发展，技术进步将打开估值空间。 • 对美出口敞口归零后的业绩冲击预计在 20%-40%之间，可能造成个股 2- 3 个跌停。不必过度解读全面衰退，可参考港股计价方式，关注央行政策 调整和中美关系缓和。 • 五月市场可关注两条线索：一是中美关系缓和可能带来的部分出口链反弹， 特别是对美科技类产品；二是全年推荐的科技主线，包括 AI 机器人、自动 驾驶、新消费及白马龙头。 Q&A 如何应对近期关税冲击及其对市场的影响？ 应对近期关税冲击的策略可以分为三个阶段。第一阶段是 ...