格隆汇12月1日丨滨海投资(02886.HK)发布公告，2025年12月1日耗资3.14万港元回购2.8万股，回购价格 每股1.12港元。 ...

Market Performance - The gas sector increased by 0.39% on December 1, with Xin'ao Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up by 1.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xin'ao Co. (600803) closed at 21.97, with a rise of 3.15% and a trading volume of 173,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 381 million [1] - Fuan Energy (002911) closed at 12.51, up by 2.54%, with a trading volume of 120,300 shares and a transaction value of 151 million [1] - Other notable performers include Tereis (920014) with a 1.81% increase, and Baichuan Energy (600681) with a 1.41% increase [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The gas sector experienced a net outflow of 388 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 171 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates that while institutional investors withdrew funds, retail investors were actively buying into the sector [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Kaitan Gas (920010) had a net inflow of 540,780 from institutional investors, with a 12.60% share of total inflow [3] - Baichuan Energy (600681) saw a net outflow of 399,550 from retail investors, indicating a negative sentiment among this group [3] - Xinjiang Torch (603080) had a net inflow of 219,560 from institutional investors, suggesting some interest despite overall market conditions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the public utilities and environmental sectors, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory measures in various provinces aimed at standardizing the retail price differences in electricity sales, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve the profitability of electricity sales companies [3][7]. - It notes the fluctuating natural gas prices globally, with U.S. prices rising while European prices are declining, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape influenced by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand [12][22]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various segments, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas-related companies, reflecting a diversified approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Regulation of Retail Price Differences - Guangdong has issued guidelines to regulate the retail price differences, proposing a sharing mechanism for excess profits above a set threshold starting in 2026 [7]. - Several provinces have introduced detailed policies to manage retail price differences, aiming to prevent excessive profits by electricity sales companies and ensure fair pricing for consumers [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from aggressive pricing strategies to a service-oriented business model for electricity sales companies, which could stabilize market expectations [9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations - As of November 28, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $4.59/mmBtu, reflecting an 11.13% weekly increase, while European prices, such as TTF, fell by 5.37% to €28.75/MWh [12][13]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas demand has surged due to cold weather, despite record production levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [16]. - In Northeast Asia, LNG prices have decreased to $10.90/mmBtu, down 6.52% week-on-week, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels [31][34]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable autumn floods are expected to enhance hydropower generation capacity for the winter and spring, with recommendations for major hydropower companies [10]. - Thermal Power: The diversification of revenue sources in thermal power companies is highlighted, with recommendations for integrated coal and power companies [11]. - Nuclear Power: The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies due to stable cost structures and expected growth from new approvals [11]. - Green Energy: The introduction of new market rules for renewable energy is expected to stabilize returns for green energy operators [11]. - Gas and Environmental Companies: Recommendations include integrated gas trading companies and environmentally focused firms benefiting from regulatory changes [37].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提 取欧洲气价下行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 12 月 01 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《降温将至美国气价上涨、库存提取 欧洲气价下行》 2025-11-24 《降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧 洲&中国气价微降》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截 至 2025/11/ ...

Core Insights - Global natural gas consumption is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.5%, accounting for 40% of the global increase in energy demand [2] - China's natural gas consumption is projected to grow by 7.3% year-on-year in 2024, significantly higher than the global growth rate, indicating substantial future growth potential [2] - The International Gas Union (IGU) emphasizes the importance of natural gas in achieving China's dual carbon goals and the development of a new energy system [2][10] Group 1: Global and Chinese Natural Gas Market - In 2024, natural gas will constitute approximately 23% of global primary energy consumption, while in China, it will only account for 8.8%, highlighting a significant growth opportunity [2] - The IGU anticipates that China's annual natural gas consumption could reach 1 trillion cubic meters, driven by strong demand and effective domestic production increases [2][15] - The global energy supply in 2024 is expected to hit historical highs across all energy types, with fossil fuels still making up about 80% of the energy mix [9] Group 2: Role of Natural Gas in Energy Transition - Natural gas is viewed as the "best partner" for renewable energy, essential for providing stability and support during the transition to a low-carbon energy system [10][14] - The energy transition is a lengthy process, and natural gas will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix for the foreseeable future [10] - The global energy demand is projected to grow, with electricity demand expected to increase by 4% in 2024, indicating a rising need for flexible energy sources like natural gas [9] Group 3: Development of Gas Power in China - Gas power is essential for energy transition, with the potential to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 50% when replacing coal power [11] - Currently, gas power contributes only 3.2% to China's electricity generation, significantly lower than in the US and Europe, indicating room for growth [14] - The flexibility of gas turbines allows for better integration with renewable energy sources, providing necessary backup during periods of low renewable generation [12][13] Group 4: Future Prospects and Challenges - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach between 600 billion to 650 billion cubic meters by 2040, driven by urban development and energy transition needs [16][17] - The country has made significant progress in increasing domestic natural gas production, with expectations of further increases through enhanced exploration and technology [17][20] - The development of gas power in China faces challenges related to resource availability and pricing mechanisms, which need to be addressed for sustainable growth [14][20]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the high dividend sector continued to perform relatively well, driven by its defensive attributes amid declining market risk appetite due to factors such as overseas AI debates, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances [2][3] Market Overview - The current all-A ERP is near the rolling 5-year average, indicating a potential stabilization in market conditions [1] - High dividend sectors, particularly banks and oil & petrochemicals, showed strong performance this month [1] Investment Strategy - Looking ahead to December, there is an expectation for a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [1][3] - The marginal value of high dividend sector allocation has decreased compared to November, suggesting a need for selective investment in "anti-involution" cyclical high dividend stocks and some potential high dividend varieties [1][3] Sector-Specific Insights - **Insurance Sector**: The insurance dividend strategy is transitioning to a 2.0 phase, focusing on selective investments due to declining cash yields and challenges from rising valuations and falling dividend yields [4] - **Transportation**: The sector has seen a recovery in truck demand since Q3, with recommendations for stocks that have experienced significant declines [5] - **Banking**: The stability of LPR rates is beneficial for banks, and recent stock purchases by executives have boosted market confidence [6] - **Telecommunications**: Despite slowing revenue growth, operators are improving operational efficiency and capital expenditures, positioning them well for AI-related opportunities [7] - **Oil & Petrochemicals**: The sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in raw material prices and improved demand for chemical products [8] Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for December, with a focus on high dividend stocks that are undervalued and have strong fundamentals, particularly in cyclical sectors and essential consumer goods [3][5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a 7.9% year-on-year increase in national electricity market trading volume from January to October 2025, with significant growth in green electricity trading [2][15]. - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with a notable increase in project bidding activity [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies supporting renewable energy development, predicting stable profitability for new energy generation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64%, while the public utility and environmental indices increased by 0.89% and 1.59%, respectively [1][14]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 1.60%, while hydropower and new energy generation saw smaller gains [1][24]. Important Events - In October 2025, the national electricity market trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year [2][15]. - The cumulative trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][15]. Specialized Research - The report details 35 public bidding projects in the controlled nuclear fusion sector from October to November 2025, with a total estimated contract value of 2.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The bidding activity has significantly accelerated compared to previous months, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [3][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][22]. - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [4][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all maintaining an "Outperform" rating, including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][22].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Energy announced the convening of its 41st board meeting on November 28, 2025, to review the proposal for amending the "Board Secretary Work System" [1] Group 1: Company Financials - For the first half of 2025, Shenzhen Energy's revenue composition was as follows: electricity accounted for 62.18%, environmental protection for 18.52%, gas for 13.65%, and other industries for 5.64% [1] - As of the report date, Shenzhen Energy's market capitalization was 31.7 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new retail pricing mechanism in Sichuan's electricity market, which is expected to enhance the integration of commercial storage resources by virtual power plants [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, while the public utility index dropped by 4.33% and the environmental index decreased by 6.02% [15][25]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power declined by 4.68%, hydropower by 1.44%, and renewable energy generation by 5.67% [15][26]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering maturity with improved free cash flow, and highlights investment opportunities in companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [23]. - The report also points out the potential in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to the EU's SAF blending policy, recommending companies like Shangaohuaneng [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for those in the public utility and environmental sectors [8].

Market Overview - The gas sector increased by 1.15% on November 28, with Delong Huineng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Key Performers in Gas Sector - Delong Huineng (000593) closed at 11.96, up 6.22% with a trading volume of 506,400 shares and a transaction value of 589 million [1] - Xinjiang Torch (603080) closed at 23.21, up 6.08% with a trading volume of 65,700 shares and a transaction value of 150 million [1] - Shengtong Energy (001331) closed at 14.32, up 5.84% with a trading volume of 64,300 shares and a transaction value of 90.55 million [1] - Other notable performers include Shouhua Gas (300483) up 5.28% and ST Jinjis (000669) up 4.87% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The gas sector saw a net inflow of 116 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.75 million [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Shouhua Gas with a net outflow of 34.62 million from institutional investors [3] - Ninefeng Energy (605090) had a net inflow of 31.72 million from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]