国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhengbang Technology's stock has experienced a decline, with a current price of 2.88 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 26.64 billion CNY, reflecting a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhengbang Technology reported a revenue of 10.658 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 97.25% to 8.2656 million CNY [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.864 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 21, Zhengbang Technology's stock fell by 2.04%, with a trading volume of 301 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.43%. The stock has decreased by 1.37% year-to-date and has seen a 6.80% drop over the last five trading days [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 27.1908 million CNY, with large orders buying 72.9073 million CNY and selling 55.1959 million CNY [1]. Company Overview - Zhengbang Technology, established on September 26, 1996, and listed on August 17, 2007, is based in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province. The company primarily engages in feed production and sales, pig breeding and sales, and veterinary drug production and sales [1]. - The revenue composition of Zhengbang Technology includes 59.63% from pig farming, 38.31% from complete feed, 0.92% from veterinary drugs, 0.62% from concentrated feed, and 0.51% from other sources [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 5.52% but a recent decline of 4.55% over the last five trading days [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 21, New Hope's stock price was 9.45 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 42.549 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a trading volume of 2.12 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.49% [1]. - Year-to-date, New Hope's stock has been on the龙虎榜 (top trading list) twice, with the latest occurrence on April 7 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Hope reported a revenue of 80.504 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.27% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 760 million CNY, showing a significant increase of 395.89% [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - New Hope, established on March 4, 1998, is primarily engaged in feed production, white feather poultry, pig farming, and food processing [2]. - The revenue composition of New Hope is as follows: feed accounts for 68.72%, pig farming for 27.83%, and other businesses for 3.44% [2]. - The company operates within the agricultural sector, specifically in the livestock breeding industry, and is involved in various concepts such as poultry, pork, rural revitalization, and feed [2]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, New Hope had 196,000 shareholders, an increase of 1.78% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 22,955, a decrease of 1.74% [2]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with significant holdings remaining stable or increasing [3].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is facing significant financial pressure due to prolonged low prices, leading to a collective action among listed pig companies to supplement their cash flow by reallocating funds from previously planned projects [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The main pig futures contract hit a new low of 11,440 yuan/ton, marking a 17.76% decline over the past three months, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment [1]. - The current supply-demand dynamics in the pig industry remain loose, with no fundamental changes expected, and the anticipated year-end price rebound may not materialize until the second half of 2026 [1][5]. Company Actions - Companies like Tangrenshen and Yisheng shares have announced reallocations of funds from their projects to bolster liquidity, with Tangrenshen repurposing 78.96 million yuan for this purpose [2][3]. - Tangrenshen's financial performance has been adversely affected, reporting a revenue increase of 8.87% to 18.586 billion yuan but a net loss of 365 million yuan, with a debt ratio reaching a historical high of 65.51% [2][3]. Market Conditions - The pig price has been on a downward trend, with the average price dropping to 11.69 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 28.15%, indicating an oversupply in the market [5][6]. - Despite expectations for a seasonal demand increase, the actual market response has been weak, with the anticipated "腌腊行情" (cured meat demand) failing to significantly uplift prices [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig price will continue to fluctuate downward in the short to medium term, with a potential turning point not expected until the second half of 2026 as the industry undergoes necessary capacity adjustments [6].

Group 1: Production and Sales Targets - The company aims to achieve a pig production target of 1.3 million heads in 2025, with future targets yet to be determined [2] - The proportion of commercial pigs in the total output will adjust according to market conditions [2] Group 2: Cost Management - The target sales cost for commercial pigs in 2025 is set at 13 CNY/kg, with the current cost reported at 13.26 CNY/kg [2] - Major cost components include feed, vaccines, labor, and depreciation, with additional public expense allocations required for total cost [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The future pig market is subject to significant uncertainty, and the company is implementing cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement measures to strive for profitability in the coming year [3] - The company has established a new subsidiary in Xinjiang to expand its ruminant feed business, leveraging local agricultural resources [3] Group 4: Revenue and Business Transformation - The company anticipates stable revenue growth in Q4 2025 and is actively exploring new production capabilities [3] - A strategic transformation is underway, shifting from heavy asset models to lighter asset collaborations, and diversifying into pet food and new feed products [4] Group 5: Debt Management and Financing - The company is focused on controlling non-operational expenditures and managing debt levels while exploring diverse financing channels [3] - Plans include attracting long-term strategic equity investments and capital market financing [3] Group 6: Robotics and Innovation - The company is exploring the robotics sector, with a new subsidiary established to focus on intelligent robotics development [4] - The robotics business is seen as a continuous investment area, with funding sourced from ongoing operations and potential refinancing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen, has decided to terminate the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" due to ongoing pressure from declining pig prices, which have fallen to 12.64 yuan/kg, a 27.4% year-on-year decrease, leading to significant financial strain [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Tangrenshen's third-quarter breeding cost reached 13.3 yuan/kg, which is above the current market price, resulting in a loss of 3.05 billion yuan for the quarter [3][6] - The company's asset-liability ratio has risen to 65.51%, indicating increased financial pressure, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.8 and a current ratio of 0.97 [1][4][5] - The company has reported a cumulative net profit loss of 12.32 billion yuan over the past five years, with three years of profit and two years of loss [6] Project Termination and Fund Allocation - The termination of the "Dongchong Phase III" project was part of a larger fundraising initiative where Tangrenshen raised 1.14 billion yuan in 2022, with 580 million yuan of unused funds redirected to a new project [2][3] - The company plans to adopt a lighter asset operation model for its pig breeding business, focusing on leasing and partnerships [2] Industry Context - The pig farming industry has seen several companies, including Tian Kang Biological and Wens Foodstuffs, halt expansion projects due to increased market competition and declining prices [3][6] - The current pig price cycle has been characterized by a prolonged downturn, with prices dropping significantly since mid-2024, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by pig farming companies [6][8] Financing Strategy - In response to financial pressures, Tangrenshen is initiating new financing efforts, including the issuance of short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, aimed at repaying debts and supplementing working capital [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Core Viewpoint - The company has decided to terminate the funding for the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" and will permanently allocate the remaining raised funds of 78.96 million yuan to supplement working capital, pending shareholder approval [1][7]. Summary by Sections Project Termination - The company has cumulatively invested 15.97 million yuan in the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" as of November 18, 2025, primarily for preliminary infrastructure costs [2]. - The initial plan for the project included an investment of 152 million yuan, to be implemented by its subsidiary, Hunan Longhua Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. [4]. Financial Details - As of December 5, 2022, the company raised a total of 1.14 billion yuan, with a net amount of 1.1112 billion yuan after deducting related issuance costs [2]. - The remaining funds of 78.96 million yuan will be used to enhance the company's liquidity and operational efficiency [1][7]. Industry Context - Since 2020, the pig farming industry has experienced significant capacity expansion, leading to oversupply and persistently low pig prices, resulting in widespread losses in 2023 [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revised the "Pig Production Capacity Regulation Implementation Plan" in 2024, prompting the company to delay the project's implementation due to economic uncertainties [6]. Strategic Shift - The company plans to adopt a more cautious approach by prioritizing light-asset operational models such as leasing and partnerships, rather than continuing with the capital-intensive project [6]. - The decision to terminate the project is seen as a prudent move to optimize resource allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage, aligning with the company's current operational needs [7].

罗牛山今年以来股价涨24.70%，近5个交易日涨0.61%，近20日涨23.40%，近60日涨29.78%。 11月20日，罗牛山盘中上涨2.10%，截至10:08，报8.28元/股，成交1.66亿元，换手率1.77%，总市值 95.35亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出170.58万元，特大单买入1748.23万元，占比10.53%，卖出705.00万元， 占比4.25%；大单买入2095.00万元，占比12.62%，卖出3308.81万元，占比19.93%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 罗牛山所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-生猪养殖。所属概念板块包括：海南自贸区、小盘、职业教 育、乡村振兴、生态农业等。 截至11月10日，罗牛山股东户数9.36万，较上期增加10.77%；人均流通股12295股，较上期减少9.72%。 2025年1月-9月，罗牛山实现营业收入16.29亿元，同比减少34.67%；归母净利润279.93万元，同比减少 99.18%。 分红方面，罗牛山A股上市后累计派现2.00亿元。近三年，累计派现6909.08万元。 资料显示，罗牛山股份有限公司位于海南省海口市美兰区国兴大道5号海南大厦农信楼1 ...