Group 1 - UBS reports that Sea Freight International (01308) has seen a 35% increase in stock price this year due to strong freight rates and healthy growth in container transportation volume [1] - The stock reached a new high following preliminary performance announcements from Jinjiang Shipping (601083.SH) and Dexion Shipping (02510) for the first half of the year [1] - UBS predicts a year-on-year decline in profits for the second half, primarily due to last year's high base [1] Group 2 - UBS believes that the current stock price fully reflects the company's higher return premium compared to peers, thus downgrading the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" [1] - The earnings per share forecasts for Sea Freight International for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 6%, 8%, and 9% respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on second-half freight volumes and rates [1] - The target price has been lowered from HKD 28 to HKD 26.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Sea Freight International's stock price has increased by 35% this year due to strong freight rates and healthy growth in container transportation in the Asia region, reaching a new high after preliminary results from Jinjiang Shipping and Dexion Shipping were announced [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS predicts a year-on-year decline in profits for the second half of the year, primarily due to last year's high base [1] - The firm has adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for Sea Freight International for 2025 to 2027 down by 6%, 8%, and 9% respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on freight volumes and rates for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Stock Rating and Target Price - UBS has downgraded its rating for Sea Freight International from "Buy" to "Neutral" as the current stock price fully reflects the company's higher return premium compared to peers [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 28 to HKD 26.5 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The shipping index (European Line) showed a volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1420.4 points, down 0.98%, with a reduction of 765 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1763.2 points, up 0.21%, with an increase of 179 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2072.7 points, down 0.37%. Overall, from a monthly - level perspective, September is likely to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, but the current estimated decline in shipping capacity may be less than that in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. Strategically, hold short positions on the 10 contract as appropriate, and add positions at high levels as appropriate, with the upper resistance level referring to 1450 - 1500 points [7][10]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Data of Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Contracts**: EC2508 closed at 2072.7, down 0.37%, with 216 trades and 3,579 open interests, a decrease of 121; EC2510 closed at 1420.4, down 0.98%, with 26,142 trades and 53,596 open interests, a decrease of 765; EC2512 closed at 1763.2, up 0.21%, with 4,400 trades and 9,760 open interests, an increase of 179 [1]. - **Freight Index**: SCFIS European route was 2,297.86 points, down 0.8%; SCFIS US - West route was 1,130.12 points, down 12.0%; SCFI European route was $2,051/TEU, down 1.9%; SCFI US - West route was $2,021/FEU, down 2.2% [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different alliances' freight rates showed a downward trend. In a neutral scenario, the market FAK freight rate center at the end of August is expected to be in the range of $2,500 - 2,600/FEU [8]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.23, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.18 [1]. 2. Supply - Side Fundamentals - **August**: The weekly shipping capacity was revised down from 32.8 to 32.5 TEU/week. The average weekly capacity in the first half - month (weeks 32 - 33) was 320,000 TEU, and in the second half - month (weeks 34 - 35) was 329,000 TEU. The cargo - collection pressure in the second half - month is relatively greater [9]. - **September**: The number of undetermined voyages decreased by 1 to 3, and the number of blank sailings increased by 2 to 4. The average weekly capacity was revised down from 31.8 to 30.8 TEU/week. The current September capacity is lower than August's 325,000 TEU/week, higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week, and similar to April's 313,000 TEU/week [9]. 3. Demand - Side Fundamentals - Since mid - August, the overall market cargo volume has shown a mild downward trend, and the subsequent decline rate needs to be observed [9]. 4. Macro News - Zelensky stated that the initiative to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in Russia, and Ukraine is preparing a series of meetings in Europe to promote the peace process [6]. - South African President Ramaphosa held talks with Russian President Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace process [6]. 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the shipping index (European Line) is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in the same period of previous years, indicating overall downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be introduced. Export growth has rebounded but faces downward pressure as the effects of rush - exporting and re - exporting fade. Overseas, the next few months are crucial for inflation trends. Although the Fed chairman's stance is hawkish, the Fed's core goals are employment stability and inflation control [2]. - The dollar index may maintain a consolidation trend in the short term, and its future direction depends on the US CPI data next week. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central value of 7.20 [6]. - The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level. The trading volume is expected to narrow, and the risk preference and amplitude may decline [8]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and are currently dominated by bulls. Copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish. Zinc is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile. Tin may see a small increase. Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Lead is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. [12][13][14] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. Iron ore's upward pressure is increasing. Coking coal and coke are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by costs [24][25][28]. - Crude oil is under downward pressure due to the weakening of seasonal demand. LPG is in a weak and volatile state. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand the processing fee at low prices. MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate. PP is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. PE needs to wait for the return of downstream demand. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Fuel oil is weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is bearish. Asphalt is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Urea is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a volatile state. Pulp is in the process of bottom - building. Logs are in a state of position tug - of - war and price oscillation. Propylene is in a low - level oscillation [34][37][39]. - The live - hog market is in a state of strong spot - market game. Oils and fats are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Corn and starch are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Cotton is expected to be in an oscillatory state. Sugar is expected to maintain a weak state. Eggs are expected to be in a short - term bullish state and can consider reverse spreads [65][67][68]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4% in the first seven months. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the economy is under downward pressure, and it has entered a policy observation window. Exports have rebounded but face downward pressure. Overseas, inflation trends are crucial in the next few months [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by external and internal factors. The dollar index may be range - bound in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [6]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level [8]. - **Shipping Index**: The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices are rising due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is dominated by bulls [12]. - **Copper**: The price is mainly oscillatory, and investors need to be wary of weak demand [13]. - **Zinc**: Supported by low LME inventory and the fermentation of rate - cut expectations, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term [14]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term [15]. - **Tin**: The price has a small increase, and there is a possibility of further upward movement [16]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state due to supply - side disturbances [18]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are loose [20]. - **Lead**: It is in a state of long - short divergence, and the short - term trend is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: They are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. The supply of five major steel products has decreased, and demand has increased, with inventory accumulating [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, and the upward pressure is increasing [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market has production disturbances, and the coke market has room for price increases. They are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term [28]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are supported by costs. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the long - term demand is affected by the real - estate market [30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price has dropped for six consecutive days. The fundamentals are mixed, and there is a risk of supply surplus as seasonal demand weakens [34]. - **LPG**: The cost is falling, and the supply is loose. The demand has a slight improvement, and the 09 contract is weak [37]. - **PTA - PX**: The price has fallen. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA may have a supply - demand gap in August. It is recommended to buy to expand the processing fee at low prices [39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand contradiction of MEG is not significant, and the bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost [41]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is under pressure from new - device production, and the demand is weak [44]. - **PE**: It is affected by external factors. The current pressure is large, but there is an expectation of demand recovery in August [47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and styrene's supply is expected to be in surplus in August - September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has a slight increase. The domestic FU market is under downward pressure [51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has fallen due to the drag of crude oil. The supply is low, and the demand is weak [52]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds [53]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure. The futures have fallen, and the spot market is under pressure, but there is support from exports [55]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda**: They are in a volatile state. Soda ash has a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern. Glass is in a weak - balance state. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase [56][58][59]. - **Pulp**: It is in the process of bottom - building. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has seasonal support [60]. - **Logs**: The price is in an oscillation state. The 07 - contract delivery data provides a reference for future delivery, and the delivery cost is rising [61]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has increased, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight change [63]. Agricultural Products - **Live Hogs**: The price is weak and stable. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider reverse spreads [65]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Palm oil has a loose balance sheet, soybean oil has a good outlook for de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is in short - term consolidation [67]. - **Corn & Starch**: They are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. The corn price is stable or slightly weak, and starch is affected by cost and demand [68]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in an oscillatory state. The new - year US cotton signing is poor, and the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be tight at the end of the year [69]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to maintain a weak state. Brazil's sugar export has decreased, and India may allow sugar exports in the new season [70]. - **Eggs**: They are expected to be in a short - term bullish state. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and reverse spreads can be considered [72].

受行业运价影响，公司上半年实现运价同比下滑，但仍好于行业平均水平 上半年BHSI、BSI指数分别同比下降21.6%、30.0%，公司小灵便船、大灵便船分别实现TCE运价为 11,010美元/天及12,230美元/天，同比下滑7%、11%，分别较市场指数高出27%和40%。 上半年股份持续推进回购，分红比例稳定，资产负债表强劲 根据公司年初公告，2025年计划使用不超过3.12亿港元进行股份回购，截至6月底，公司已回购0.93亿 股，占年初股本的1.8%，已使用回购金额1.64亿港元。1H25公司年中分红比例约50%(不包括货船出售 收益)，公司维持稳定的分红政策。公司资产负债表保持强劲，截至1H25，公司现金净额为0.66亿美 元，此外公司通过可转债转股及偿还借款，长期借款较2024年年底大幅下降，进一步改善公司现金状 况，并减轻未来付息压力，根据公司公告，预计到8月14日公司可转换债券均完成转换或赎回。 中金发布研报称，维持太平洋航运(02343)盈利预测基本不变，当前股价对应9.8倍2025年市盈率和8.8倍 2026年市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级不变，考虑到行业风险偏好改善，上调公司目标价14.3%至2.4 ...

智通财经获悉，近期航运巨头纷纷上调运价。赫伯罗特宣布自2025年8月16日起征收亚洲至非洲航线的 旺季附加费(PSS)，具体航线涵盖以下三类：亚洲/大洋洲→西南非洲航线(包括安哥拉、刚果等港口)： 所有集装箱类型征收600美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)，冷藏箱至喀麦隆港口征收800美元/TEU35。亚洲/大洋 洲→南非航线：所有集装箱类型征收200美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)。亚洲/大洋洲→几内亚克里港口航线： 所有干货集装箱、罐式集装箱和特种箱征收600美元/TEU，冷藏箱征收800美元/TEU36。 此外，马士基自7月15日起上调多条航线运价:中国至南美东海岸(巴西、阿根廷等):上涨1000美元/TEU。 远东至西非航线:上调50美元/TEU;中东至东非航线:上调750美元/TEU。达飞同期对亚洲(不含日本)至红 海航线加收300美元/TEU。 有分析指出，航运价格上涨本质是供需矛盾、成本压力与战略博弈共同作用的结果。短期内附加费政策 仍将频繁调整，而长期看，绿色转型与数字化或成为平抑运价波动的关键变量。 具体而言，从供需结构性失衡来看，2025年8月正值传统外贸旺季，欧美市场为年底购物季备货推高运 输需求，尤 ...

三十年期美债拍卖惨淡，长期美债收益率普涨、对美股构成压力。被视为鸽派的米兰即将担任美联储理事， 提振科技股情绪，纳指惊险收涨。苹果再涨 3%，几乎抹去了4月2日以来所有跌幅。 礼来绩后重挫14%。 10年期美债收益率涨2.43个基点。美元徘徊于98低点。特朗普签署行政令允许401K账户投资加密货币等， 比特币走高2%，以太坊涨5.6%。 华见早安之声 市场概述 黄金震荡上行0.76%，遇阻3400美元后回落。美俄会晤消息打压原油，美油较日高下挫近2%。 亚洲时段，沪指再创年内新高，稀土永磁午后大涨，恒指四连阳重返25000点，医药股下跌，国债、商品上涨。 要闻 中国7月按美元计 出口同比增长7.2%， 进口增长4.1%， 高技术产品前7个月进出口同比增8.4%。 稀土出口 环比跌23%， 大豆进口创 历史最 高， 铁矿石进口 连续三个月保持在1亿吨上方。 中国7月外汇储备规模环比下降0.76%，央行 连续第9个月增持黄金。 OpenAI最强模型 GPT-5来了，免费可用， Altman高呼迈向AGI一大步，微软抢先接入。 报道： 特斯拉解散 Dojo超级计算机团队， 马斯克的AI抱负遇挫。 历史性时刻！ 特朗 ...

近期航运巨头纷纷上调运价。赫伯罗特宣布自2025年8月16日起征收亚洲至非洲航线的旺季附加费 (PSS)，具体航线涵盖以下三类：亚洲/大洋洲→西南非洲航线(包括安哥拉、刚果等港口)：所有集装箱 类型征收600美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)，冷藏箱至喀麦隆港口征收800美元/TEU35。亚洲/大洋洲→南非航 线：所有集装箱类型征收200美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)。亚洲/大洋洲→几内亚克里港口航线：所有干货集 装箱、罐式集装箱和特种箱征收600美元/TEU，冷藏箱征收800美元/TEU36。 长期而言，智能集装箱与区块链技术的应用已降低10%的运营损耗，但头部企业需平衡技术投入与短期 盈利目标。马士基预计2026年无人船队将覆盖5%的亚非航线，届时人力成本占比有望从22%降至15%。 此外，马士基自7月15日起上调多条航线运价:中国至南美东海岸(巴西、阿根廷等):上涨1000美元/TEU。 远东至西非航线:上调50美元/TEU;中东至东非航线:上调750美元/TEU。达飞同期对亚洲(不含日本)至红 海航线加收300美元/TEU。 有分析指出，航运价格上涨本质是供需矛盾、成本压力与战略博弈共同作用的结果。短期内附加费政 ...

近期航运巨头纷纷上调运价。赫伯罗特宣布自2025年8月16日起征收亚洲至非洲航线的旺季附加费 (PSS)，具体航线涵盖以下三类：亚洲/大洋洲→西南非洲航线(包括安哥拉、刚果等港口)：所有集装箱 类型征收600美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)，冷藏箱至喀麦隆港口征收800美元/TEU35。亚洲/大洋洲→南非航 线：所有集装箱类型征收200美元/TEU(冷藏箱除外)。亚洲/大洋洲→几内亚克里港口航线：所有干货集 装箱、罐式集装箱和特种箱征收600美元/TEU，冷藏箱征收800美元/TEU36。 此外，马士基自7月15日起上调多条航线运价:中国至南美东海岸(巴西、阿根廷等):上涨1000美元/TEU。 远东至西非航线:上调50美元/TEU;中东至东非航线:上调750美元/TEU。达飞同期对亚洲(不含日本)至红 海航线加收300美元/TEU。 有分析指出，航运价格上涨本质是供需矛盾、成本压力与战略博弈共同作用的结果。短期内附加费政策 仍将频繁调整，而长期看，绿色转型与数字化或成为平抑运价波动的关键变量。 具体而言，从供需结构性失衡来看，2025年8月正值传统外贸旺季，欧美市场为年底购物季备货推高运 输需求，尤其亚洲至非洲、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trust in China's maritime judicial system by foreign parties involved in maritime disputes, highlighting successful mediation cases that showcase China's "Eastern experience" in resolving international maritime conflicts [1][2][5]. Group 1: Case Summaries - A case involving a shipping company from Singapore and a Turkish steel company resulted in a successful mediation at Dalian Maritime Court, where the parties reached a settlement of over $90,000 after the cargo was damaged during unloading [2]. - In another case at Ningbo Maritime Court, a collision between foreign vessels led to a claim of over $1.6 million, which was resolved through mediation involving a foreign shipowner's protection and indemnity association, demonstrating the effectiveness of collaborative dispute resolution [3][4][5]. Group 2: Judicial System and International Influence - China's maritime courts are increasingly recognized for their ability to handle international disputes, as evidenced by foreign parties voluntarily choosing Chinese courts for jurisdiction, reflecting the international credibility of China's maritime judicial system [5]. - The introduction of a multi-faceted dispute resolution mechanism, including litigation, arbitration, and mediation, is part of China's efforts to enhance its position as a preferred venue for international maritime and commercial dispute resolution [5].