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天山铝业(002532):H1电解铝量稳价增,电解铝产能仍有增长
Huaxin Securities· 2025-09-04 05:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [10] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's H1 2025 revenue increased by 11.19% year-on-year to 15.328 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.51% to 2.084 billion yuan. The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 47.09% to 3.280 billion yuan [1][2] Production and Sales Summary - The production volume of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 remained stable at 585,400 tons, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1.1999 million tons. The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum rose by approximately 2.8% to 20,250 yuan per ton, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina increased by about 6% to 3,700 yuan per ton [2][3] - The external sales volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, and the external sales volume of alumina rose by about 7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's total revenue was 15.328 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.100 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The revenue contribution from various segments was 65.26% from raw aluminum, 24.20% from alumina, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, 6.89% from aluminum foil, and 1.55% from other segments [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 33.874 billion yuan, 35.207 billion yuan, and 37.396 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.594 billion yuan, 4.858 billion yuan, and 5.233 billion yuan for the same years [10][12]
建信期货铝日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price shows a relatively strong trend. Although it has not emerged from the off - season, the market sentiment is positive due to the impending Fed rate cut. The subsequent performance of the consumer side during the peak season should be monitored to see if it can break through the upper space [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen under the resonance of multiple factors, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be held [7]. - Alumina is in a weak fundamental situation, breaking through the 3000 mark and running weakly in the short - term, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the military parade may delay the peak - season time, and the inventory is still accumulating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum price first rose and then fell. The main contract tested around 20,900 and then declined again, closing at 20,710 at the end of the session, with a slight drop of 0.02%. The 09 - 10 spread was at a discount of - 10, the import window remained closed, and the spot import loss was - 1,354 yuan/ton [7]. - In the spot market, the selling sentiment was better than the buying sentiment, the purchasing power of downstream enterprises was weak, and the inventory accumulation suppressed the premium [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated following the Shanghai aluminum price. The negative spread between AD and AL was - 415. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap - aluminum industry leading to increased costs, the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the transfer and registration authority of some mineral species, aiming to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8]. - On August 4, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou District Dayuantao bauxite mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland. Key infrastructure construction has begun, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].
南山铝业国际(2610.HK):产能建设提速增厚利润 首次中期分红回馈股东
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-04 03:27
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in 1H25, with revenues and profits exceeding expectations, driven by higher sales prices and increased alumina production [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was approximately $597 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.0% [1] - Shareholder profit for 1H25 was about $248 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 124.2% [1] - Alumina sales volume reached 1.127 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of $529 per ton, a 36.9% increase [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 50.9%, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit increasing by 70.1% [1] Tax and Dividend Policy - The company will adhere to the OECD's global anti-base erosion rules starting January 1, 2025, leading to an increase in income tax to 15%, up approximately 6 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The company announced its first interim dividend post-listing, with a payout ratio of about 20% [1] Development Trends - The company is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia, with a total alumina production capacity of 3 million tons per year as of August 2025 [2] - The second phase of alumina production, with an additional capacity of 1 million tons, is progressing faster than expected and is projected to commence in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 [2] - The company benefits from cost advantages due to abundant bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, as well as logistical efficiencies from a deep-water port expansion [2] Competitive Advantages - The company enjoys tax incentives for 20 years in the Karangbata Economic Zone, enhancing its regional market reach [2] - Major shareholders possess strong industry advantages across the alumina production and bauxite supply chain, facilitating synergy and collaboration [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 7% and 9% to $374 million and $500 million, respectively [2] - The current A-share price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9x for 2025 and 6x for 2026, with a target price adjustment of 58% to HKD 52.59, indicating a 25% upside potential [2]
伦铝价格弱势震荡 9月3日LME铝库存持平
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-04 03:10
Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, opening at $2612.5 per ton and currently at $2602 per ton, with a decline of 0.46% [1] - On September 3, LME aluminum futures opened at $2623.0, reached a high of $2623.5, a low of $2607.0, and closed at $2614.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.29% [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is reported at 7.92, with an import loss of ¥1357.06 per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of ¥1358.87 per ton [2] Group 2 - As of September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures warehouse receipts totaled 59,557 tons, an increase of 903 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stand at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts remaining unchanged at 10,850 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 479,600 tons, also unchanged [2]
大行评级|瑞银:上调紫金矿业和洛阳钼业的目标价 重申“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-04 03:05
Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the performance of non-ferrous metal companies in the first half of the year remains robust, with Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining leading with profit growth exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining show strong profit growth of over 50% [1] - China Hongqiao and Jiangxi Copper follow, while China Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum's profits remain relatively flat [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The copper industry focuses on mergers and acquisitions, production growth, and niche metal business expansion [1] - The aluminum sector emphasizes dividend distribution and share buybacks [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS raises full-year profit forecasts for Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper by 6%, 11%, and 26% respectively [1] - The target prices for Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are increased to HKD 32.5 and HKD 16.5 respectively [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 27.1 [1] Group 4: Preferred Stocks - China Hongqiao remains UBS's top pick in the aluminum sector due to its potential for deleveraging and commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a target price of HKD 26.8 and a "Buy" rating [1]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250904
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The finished product is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and a weak performance [2][4] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a production resumption time around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished product continued to fluctuate downward, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [4] - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation. Factors to be concerned about are macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million, which supported investors' expectations of the Fed's monetary policy relaxation [3] - In September, the spot price of alumina is weakly running. The supply side has a slight increase in operating capacity and output, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise in September. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry changes little, and the high profit remains. The demand side shows signs of recovery in the downstream weekly start - up rate as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches [4] - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - The view is that the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Factors to be concerned about are macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6]
上海友升铝业股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市招股意向书提示性公告
上海友升铝业股份有限公司(以下简称"友升股份""发行人"或"公司")首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 的申请已经上海证券交易所(以下简称"上交所")上市审核委员会审议通过,并已经中国证券监督管理 委员会(以下简称"中国证监会")证监许可〔2025〕1616号文同意注册。《上海友升铝业股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市招股意向书》及附录在上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)和符合 中国证监会规定条件网站(中国证券网,网址www.cnstock.com;中证网,网址www.cs.com.cn;证券时 报网,网址www.stcn.com;证券日报网,网址www.zqrb.cn;经济参考网,网址www.jjckb.cn)披露,并 置备于发行人、本次发行保荐人(主承销商)国泰海通证券股份有限公司的住所,供公众查阅。 敬请投资者重点关注本次发行流程、网上网下申购及缴款、弃购股份处理等方面,并认真阅读同日披露 于上交所网站和符合中国证监会规定条件网站上的《上海友升铝业股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在 主板上市发行安排及初步询价公告》。 ■ 保荐人(主承销商):国泰海通证券股份有限公司 2025年9月4日 ...
宏创控股: 中联资产评估集团有限公司关于关于《山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司关于关于山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申请的审核问询函(审核函〔2025〕130009号)之反馈意见回复》资产评估相关问题答复之核查意见(修订稿)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-09-03 16:08
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. is responding to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's inquiry regarding its asset purchase application, highlighting the valuation methods and results of its assets, which indicate significant appreciation in value. Asset Valuation Summary - The transaction employs both asset-based and income approaches for asset valuation, with the asset-based approach concluding a total equity value of 63.518 billion yuan, reflecting an appreciation of 20.778 billion yuan and a growth rate of 48.62% [1][2]. - The assessed assets include 43 subsidiaries, with 39 wholly-owned, 2 controlled, and 2 affiliated companies. Valuation for wholly-owned and controlling subsidiaries is based on net asset values multiplied by ownership percentages, while affiliated companies are valued based on their reported net assets [1][2]. - The primary sources of asset appreciation are inventory, fixed assets, construction in progress, and land use rights. Inventory valuation increases are attributed to profit considerations in semi-finished products, while fixed asset appreciation is due to rising replacement costs and longer economic lifespans compared to accounting depreciation [1][2][3]. - The transaction's price-to-earnings ratio is 3.49, lower than the industry average of 10.61 and comparable transaction average of 18.35, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.49, similar to the industry average of 1.52 [1][2]. Detailed Asset Assessment - The valuation of major asset categories under the asset-based approach shows significant increases, with total asset appreciation amounting to 19.81395 billion yuan, representing 95.36% of the total asset appreciation [1][2][3]. - Specific asset categories and their valuation methods include: - **Inventory**: Valued using replacement cost method, resulting in an increase of 800.49 million yuan [1][2][3]. - **Fixed Assets**: Valued using replacement cost method, leading to an increase of 6.7102857 billion yuan [1][2][3]. - **Land Use Rights**: Valued using market comparison and cost approach, resulting in an increase of 3.6277185 billion yuan [1][2][3]. - **Construction in Progress**: Valued considering reasonable financing costs, contributing to overall asset appreciation [1][2][3]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiaries engaged in electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum deep processing hold significant operational assets, leading to higher valuation increases compared to trading or under-construction subsidiaries [1][2][3]. - The top ten subsidiaries account for 89.21% of the total asset appreciation, with a combined increase of 18.536 billion yuan [1][2][3].
山东宏桥轻量化总公司:布局轻量化铝材,抢占空天、航海领域市场
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-03 14:34
近日,滨州市政府新闻办组织召开产业链上的山东好品牌——滨州"5210N"产业集群首场记者见面会,邀请到高端铝业千亿级产业集群、邹平市轻量化铝 特色产业集群以及沾化区铝基材料特色产业集群代表企业沉浸式讲述企业成长历程及品牌故事,并回答记者提问。其中,山东宏桥轻量化总公司对空天、 航海领域的轻量化铝材料布局,以及应对行业挑战的思路,成为现场焦点。 山东宏桥轻量化总公司技术部部长莫宇飞在见面会上介绍,在空天领域,企业已凭借现有技术积累切入商用航空航天市场,目前已为火箭生产提供型材, 下一步目标是进军航空领域,如开发适用于飞机蒙皮、骨架等部件的高性能铝合金材料,积极参与到大飞机、无人机等项目的配套研发中。 航海领域的突破同样亮眼。莫宇飞介绍,山东宏桥轻量化总公司已经开发出满足船级社标准的型材,填补了空白。下一步将重点推动产品的系列化和规模 化应用,从船体结构件向上层建筑等更广泛的部件拓展,为船舶的全面轻量化提供一站式解决方案。 谈及企业发展面临的挑战,莫宇飞坦诚分享了两大核心难题:首先是"技术迭代的挑战"。空天航海领域对材料的性能要求是永无止境的,比如追求更极致 的强度、更优异的耐腐蚀性和抗疲劳性能。这要求我们必须持 ...
天山铝业(002532):24万吨扩产项目推进,计划年度累计分红比例超预期
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 15.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 9.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, which is 44% of the net profit for that period, and aims for a cumulative dividend payout ratio of at least 50% for the year 2025, exceeding the previous year's ratio of 41.42% [6] - A 240,000-ton expansion project for electrolytic aluminum is progressing steadily, with the company aiming to increase its annual production capacity from 1.16 million tons to 1.4 million tons [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 31.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 12.8% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.08 yuan for 2025, with a gross margin of 23.2% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 16.7% for 2025 [2] Market Data - The closing price of Tianshan Aluminum on September 3, 2025, was 10.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 43.32 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 for 2025 [3] - The dividend yield is calculated at 3.81% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3]