Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially comes into effect on January 1, 2026, covering six high-emission industries: steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen [6][8] - CBAM aims to address "carbon leakage" risks and is designed to push non-EU producers to adopt cleaner technologies [9][10] - The mechanism is seen as a green trade barrier, reflecting the EU's dual ambitions of revitalizing its economy and advancing global climate governance [6][25] - CBAM will significantly increase short-term carbon costs for China's high-emission industries, with the cost pressure ranking as follows: cement > steel > aluminum [6][19] - The report emphasizes the need for China's high-emission industries to accelerate their transition towards low-carbon technologies [6][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: CBAM as a Supplement to the EU Carbon Market - CBAM is introduced to mitigate "carbon leakage" risks and to impose carbon costs on high-emission trade goods [9][11] - The mechanism will gradually align with the EU carbon market reforms, with a shift from free allowances to paid certificates from 2026 to 2034 [15][16] Section 2: CBAM as a Green Trade Barrier - The introduction of CBAM is closely linked to the EU's green transition goals and aims to create a fair competitive environment while enhancing the EU's global leadership in climate action [25][26] - The mechanism is perceived as a response to internal and external pressures faced by the EU, including economic recovery post-COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions [27][28] Section 3: Short-term Carbon Costs for China's High-Emission Industries - The report highlights that China's high-emission industries face dual carbon cost pressures due to both domestic and international policies [20][21] - The transition to low-carbon practices is deemed essential for these industries to remain competitive in the evolving global landscape [20][22] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in low-carbon technologies and industries is crucial for high-emission sectors to adapt to CBAM and achieve green transformation [6][25] - The report suggests that companies with advanced technology and financial resources will likely enhance their international competitiveness through successful low-carbon transitions [6][25]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：地缘局势动荡 铝价高位偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 3 月 4 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强运行。市场担忧中东冲突可能长期化，通胀担忧加 剧，进而使得美联储的降息预期延迟。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 2.6%，维 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Investment rating for alumina: Neutral [8] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage strategy: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core Views - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a production cut in Qatar's aluminum industry, affecting 636,000 tons of production capacity. The Middle East accounts for about 10% of global aluminum production, with 70% for export. Although the probability of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is low, shipping may be affected, and concerns about an energy crisis have resurfaced due to rising natural gas prices. In China, there are no additional positive factors, and consumption is in a slow recovery period after the Spring Festival. Social inventories are still in a rapid accumulation cycle, and price transmission may be hindered. In the long term, macro - interest rate cuts and strong overseas consumption support a strategy of buying on dips [6]. - The Middle East crisis has a slightly negative impact on overseas alumina demand, but the expected increase in freight has stopped the decline in bauxite CIF prices. The supply surplus pressure has been alleviated due to production cuts by northern alumina plants, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. Spot prices tend to rise, but electrolytic aluminum plants have a low acceptance of price increases. The pressure on warehouse receipt inventory is difficult to relieve, but the spot market supply pressure is not obvious, and the short - term decline of the spot price is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,930 yuan/ton, with a change of 310 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 3, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,500 yuan/ton, the closing price was 23,905 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,820 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 611,850 lots, and the open interest was 257,380 lots [2]. Inventory - As of March 3, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 1.229 million tons, a change of 72,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 316,153 tons, a change of 21,365 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 461,550 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 3, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,640 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,605 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,660 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,755 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 311 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 3, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,786 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,807 yuan/ton, a change of 49 yuan/ton (1.78%) from the previous trading day. The highest price was 2,842 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,757 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 454,604 lots, and the open interest was 307,019 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 3, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 94,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,631 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 569 yuan/ton [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum industry in the Middle East is facing significant risks due to the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has raised concerns about production capacity, shipping capabilities, and energy supply risks in the region [1] - The production disruptions in the Middle East aluminum supply chain and the potential for a secondary energy crisis are critical issues that cannot be overlooked [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Historical context indicates that during the 2021-2022 energy crisis, aluminum prices and the sector experienced maximum increases of 60% and 100% respectively [1] - Looking ahead, concerns regarding supply in the aluminum industry are expected to lead to price increases that may exceed previous expectations [1] - The long-term supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum sector remain strong, supporting a bullish outlook for both aluminum prices and valuations [1] Additional Important Information - Qatalum, a joint venture under Hydro, officially ceased operations on March 3 due to a natural gas supply interruption, affecting a production capacity of 648,000 tons, which represents 0.9% of global capacity [1] - A full restart of Qatalum's operations is projected to take between 6 to 12 months [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East is the main driving factor for market fluctuations. Although the probability of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is low, actual shipping may be hindered, and concerns about an energy crisis have resurfaced. In the long term, with macro - interest rate cuts and strong overseas consumption, a strategy of buying on dips for hedging is still maintained. However, due to the slow recovery of domestic consumption and the rapid inventory accumulation cycle, the premium caused by geopolitical factors may be reversed later [6]. - For alumina, although the sea - freight of bauxite is currently stable, the Middle East crisis has raised concerns about rising freight. The supply surplus pressure has been alleviated due to production cuts by northern alumina plants, and the spot market price shows an upward trend, but the acceptance of price increases by electrolytic aluminum plants is poor. The pressure on warehouse receipt inventory is difficult to relieve, and the short - term downward space of the spot market is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,815 yuan/ton, closed at 24,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 760 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 483,091 lots, and the holding volume was 277,833 lots [2]. Inventory - As of March 2, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.229 million tons, with a change of 72,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 294,788 tons, with a change of 5,490 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,550 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 2, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,590 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,745 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,746 yuan/ton, closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, with a change of 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.58%. The highest price reached 2,782 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,740 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 365,789 lots, and the holding volume was 344,019 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 2, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,500 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 94,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,631 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 569 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy. - Arbitrage: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - **Strategy View**: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - **Strategy View**: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - **Strategy View**: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,059.85, down 2.1%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.8% to 8,701.91[1] - Total turnover in Hong Kong stocks was HKD 3,577 million, a decrease of 24.0% from HKD 2,884 million last Friday[1] - Energy, materials, and utilities sectors rose by 4.0%, 3.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors fell by 3.4%, 3.3%, and 3.1% respectively[1] Stock Highlights - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK) led the gainers, rising by 12.4% and 7.2% respectively[1] - JD Health (6618 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK) were the biggest losers, both down by 5.2%[1] Geopolitical Impact - Recent attacks by the US and Israel on Iran have heightened geopolitical tensions, affecting traditional energy supplies[2] - WTI crude oil prices rose to nearly USD 70, still below the USD 100-115 range seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict[2] - Gold prices increased to USD 5,300, reflecting market reactions to the geopolitical situation[2] Sector Analysis - The "Big Three" oil companies saw stock increases between 2.6% and 5.6%, while gold mining stocks like Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK) rose by 6.0%[2] - Airline stocks, including Cathay Pacific (293 HK) and Air China (753 HK), declined by 4.1% to 5.3%[2] Economic Indicators - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 52.4, slightly down from January's 52.6 but above the market expectation of 51.8[3] Automotive Sector - BYD (1211 HK) reported a 35.8% year-on-year decline in sales for the first two months of 2026, while its stock rose by 4.4%[4] - Geely (175 HK) saw a 1% increase in sales but its stock fell by 2.4%[4] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index dropped by 3.4%, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) only declining by 1.7%[5] - A clinical study confirmed Hansoh's core product, Fulaimei, showed significant improvements in blood sugar levels and weight loss in patients with severe obesity and type 2 diabetes[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease this week, and the operating capacity remains stable [3] - Demand side: Downstream processing has not fully recovered, and trading volume is average [3] - Profit: Industry theoretical profit has increased compared to last week [3] - Inventory: Social inventory has accumulated due to downstream holidays [3] - Market: Short - term fluctuations are large due to overseas macro - situation and macro factors, and the market is currently in a high - level shock [3] Alumina - Supply: Some enterprises will end maintenance and resume normal production, and the supply has increased this week. Overall, the supply is still in surplus, and there are still fundamental negative factors [4] - Demand: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable in the short term, and the demand for alumina continues to be high [4] - Price: The spot price of alumina is stable this week, and the factory inventory continues to increase. Short - term supply disturbances still exist, and the short - term price bottom may gradually appear [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream Supply - Bauxite: China's bauxite production shows seasonal patterns, with data on national monthly production, provincial monthly production, monthly import volume, and port inventory [22][23] - Alumina: China's alumina production also has seasonal characteristics, including monthly production, provincial production, weekly operating rate, import volume, and import profit and loss [24][27][30] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum monthly production shows seasonality, along with Chinese electrolytic aluminum weekly production, net import, and spot import profit and loss [31][34][40] Downstream Demand - Product Output: Aluminum rod, profile, plate, foil, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production show seasonal patterns [41] - Operating Rate: The industry average weekly operating rate, as well as the weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum products, show seasonal characteristics [45][52] - Export: The export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products shows seasonality, and there are also data on aluminum product export profits [54][56] - Related Industries: There are data on real - estate (housing start and completion area, fixed - asset investment), power engineering (solar power investment, grid engineering investment), and automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production) [60][63][67] Inventory - Bauxite: Chinese bauxite monthly inventory shows seasonality, including overall and provincial inventories [65][68] - Alumina: Alumina enterprise in - plant inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts, and LME aluminum inventory show seasonal patterns [69][70] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory show seasonality [70][73] Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: Domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, and power coal prices are presented [75] - Energy Prices: Dutch natural gas TTF and European partial country electricity prices are shown [76] - Cost and Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum: The cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal increase in supply is slight and does not dominate the market. In the current situation of intensified game between macro - sentiment and fundamental data, the market needs time to digest, and it is difficult to have a trending market in the short term [4]. - The market's pricing focus is on "whether it far exceeds expectations" rather than "good or bad". Due to the lack of prominent unilateral contradictions in non - ferrous metals in the short term, the market over - trades expectations on key data, and data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations is interpreted as "falling short of expectations" [5]. - The long - term tight - balance supply - demand logic of aluminum has not been impacted, and the limited supply increase has limited impact on prices [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production - **Production Progress Update**: During the Spring Festival, overseas electrolytic aluminum plants were actively in production. Indonesia's Juwann Aluminum (Weida Bay/Small K Island) has reached full production; Indonesia's Pioneer Aluminum (in the same park as Juwann) is expected to start production in early Q3; Iceland's Grundartangi Aluminum Plant's resumption of production is advanced to the end of April; the actual production of Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park has slightly increased compared to the end - of - 2025 expectation [5]. - **Production Forecast Adjustment**: The report revises up the expected new overseas electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 to 760,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from before the Spring Festival. As of the report release, the actual production capacity is 10,000 tons more than the end - of - 2025 expectation [10]. - **Specific Factory Updates**: Four factory production expectations are revised up, including Juwann Aluminum reaching full production as expected, Pioneer Aluminum expected to start production in Q3, Grundartangi Aluminum advancing resumption to April, and Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park having good production progress [11]. 2. Domestic Aluminum Plant Production - **Domestic Production Remains Unchanged**: The expected new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects in 2026 are provided, with a total planned new capacity of 2093,000 tons, and a net increase of 1127,000 tons in 2026. The overall domestic production plan remains stable [14]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply - Demand**: The report provides supply - demand balance tables for overseas, China, and the world from 2020 - 2026E. The global supply of aluminum shows an increasing trend, and the consumption also shows growth. The market is in a tight - balance state, with small supply - demand gaps in different years [17]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Cost Factors**: Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, reaching the mid - 2021 level, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state with no significant changes [24]. - **Profit Changes**: The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8700 yuan/ton last week to 7000 yuan/ton this week due to the decline in futures aluminum prices. The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in the country has slightly increased to 16200 yuan/ton, mainly due to a 0.01 yuan/degree increase in the average electricity price [28]. 5. Internal - External Price Ratio - **Ratio Fluctuation**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum rose to a high at the beginning of the year and then declined. During the Spring Festival, LME aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and the domestic market followed but lacked follow - through [33]. 6. Downstream and Inventory - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream开工率 is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum plates, strips, and foils, which are at a historical low. Most downstream enterprises are expected to return to work after the Lantern Festival, and the开工率 is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of Monday, the electrolytic aluminum出库量 was 106,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from two weeks ago. As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 914,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from Monday. As of Wednesday, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,200 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod出库量 was 0 tons on Monday, a decrease of 42,000 tons from two weeks ago, and the social inventory of aluminum rods was 276,500 tons on Thursday, an increase of 13,000 tons from Monday. The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated after falling from a high this week [49][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream start - up will gradually rise and enter the peak season rhythm. Although the inventory pressure is large and the supply expectation has improved, the market trading logic has not changed. Coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation, aluminum prices are still driven. However, as the Middle East situation is expected to cool down, the sustainability of the market is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Indicators - The content shows the trends of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is given [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is stable compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions. Most mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are still in a shutdown state. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the Two Sessions. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental protection supervision are difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $60.5 per dry ton compared with before the holiday. The import ore price is stable in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, the procurement side is in a short - term wait - and - see period, and the miners' reluctance to sell is increasing. The shipping volume of Guinea bauxite continues to increase, and the spot supply of imported ore continues to increase, putting pressure on the ore price [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 93.5 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from before the holiday, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,659.9 yuan per ton, a rise of 28 yuan per ton from before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the holiday. The second - phase roasting end of a large alumina plant in Hebei was completely shut down due to policy influence, and the dissolution link continued to decline compared with before the Spring Festival. Two alumina enterprises in Shanxi are in the stage of maintenance. Supply - side disturbances support the alumina price [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.7 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday. With the strengthening of aluminum prices, the future supply expectation of electrolytic aluminum has improved. New production capacity: Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton project has entered the trial - production stage, Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase 80,000 - ton project is still under construction and is expected to reach full production within the year. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity, and there are rumors that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning may resume production. Overseas, Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project is in production and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 - ton of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is in production. The Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of Iceland's Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant will resume production half a year earlier than planned, starting at the end of April [20]. 3.5 Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly, and it will continue to increase in the short term. The report also shows the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2022 to 2026 [3][25][26][27][28]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 6.2% to 53.1% compared with before the holiday. The resumption of production in the first week after the holiday was slow. Most enterprises resumed work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, initially focusing on furnace pre - heating. On the demand side, the terminal industries resumed work in an orderly manner, but the release of orders was not obvious. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment and inventory digestion [31]. 3.7 Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 11.5% to 37% compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, profile enterprises gradually entered the resumption of work and production stage, and the operating level increased significantly compared with before the holiday. In the industrial profile sector, photovoltaic profiles performed relatively well, while in the building profile sector, the performance was still weak. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 4% to 67% compared with before the holiday. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the overall resumption of work in the industry was slow. Some enterprises completed equipment upgrading and maintenance during the Spring Festival and have gradually resumed work. The recovery rhythm of the downstream is different. There is no signal of warming in the building downstream, and there is a shortage of orders for curtain wall panels and aluminum veneers. Orders for high - value - added products such as automobile panels and aviation panels are relatively stable. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 4% to 57% compared with before the holiday. The power grid continued to place orders after the holiday, matching and revitalizing enterprise orders. The resumption of work of enterprises after the holiday slightly exceeded expectations. The downstream start - up and production will bottom out and rebound. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 55.8% compared with before the holiday. The holiday factor led to a general decline in enterprise operations, and the downstream enterprises had concentrated holiday time. The resumption of production after the holiday was slower than in previous years, and the overall demand was poor [39][44][48].