Group 1 - Company reported Q3 performance with revenue of approximately 20.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 815 million yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [1] - As of the report, the company's market capitalization stands at 30.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has surpassed 4000 points, marking a significant resurgence after a decade of stagnation [1] - The technology sector is leading the market's transformation, indicating the emergence of a "slow bull" market pattern [1]

Core Insights - COFCO Sugar reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.537 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06% [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 370 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 23.57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue was 20.305 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.60% [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters was 815 million yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 29.86% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 白糖：外弱内强 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.47 | -0.5 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | -2 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5730 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -11 | 3 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5445 | -1 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 285 | 1 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西 9 月下半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 11%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴 西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16%；巴西 8 月出口 374 万吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同 比减少 5%。中国 9 月进口食糖 55 万吨（+15 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国 ...

Core Insights - The Fanjul family, with an estimated net worth of $4 billion, has been actively engaging with political figures for decades, with their most successful bet being on the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs on foreign competitors and encouraged Coca-Cola to use domestic cane sugar [2][3][4]. Group 1: Fanjul Family and Coca-Cola - The Fanjul family has been working to secure Coca-Cola's business, especially after Trump mentioned the benefits of cane sugar in a conversation with Coca-Cola's CEO [3][4]. - Coca-Cola is set to launch a new product line using American cane sugar, with the Fanjul family expected to play a significant role in the supply chain [4][5]. - The Fanjul family controls Florida Crystals, which produces 16% of the raw sugar in the U.S., and reported revenues of $5.5 billion in 2024 [5][4]. Group 2: Political Influence and Donations - The Fanjul family has donated over $7 million to Trump's fundraising committees since 2016 and has spent at least $24 million on political activities since 1977 [16]. - The family has historically supported both Democratic and Republican candidates, indicating a strategic approach to political influence [16]. - The U.S. government has maintained high sugar prices through market support and low-interest loans, benefiting the Fanjul family amid fluctuating global sugar prices [16][17]. Group 3: Business Operations and Controversies - The Fanjul family operates a vast empire in sugar and real estate, including Domino Sugar and Florida Crystals, and has faced criticism over environmental and labor practices [4][8]. - Central Romana, a major agricultural tourism enterprise in the Dominican Republic owned by the Fanjul family, has been accused of forced labor, but the family denies these allegations [13][14]. - The family has begun to emphasize sustainability in their operations, despite past criticisms regarding environmental impacts [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Newly - estimated global sugar surplus in the new season has been mostly raised, with sugar production in Thailand and India recovering, which will have a key impact on the supply side. India is expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 200 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production in the 2025/26 season, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase. China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4%. The import of sugar in the third quarter significantly accelerated. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons, and with the opening of the out - of - quota window for imported sugar, the pressure of later imports remains obvious. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease later. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the main contract position was 401,598 lots, a decrease of 6,562 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,795, a decrease of 390; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 79,016 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar was 586, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,282 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,356 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.9%; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports were 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 0.4982 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,367 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 454,100 tons, an increase of 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.17%, an increase of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.22%, an increase of 0.94%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.72%, a decrease of 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] Industry News - According to data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending October 22, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 86, compared with 90 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.384 million tons, compared with 3.7272 million tons the previous week [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic white sugar futures are stabilizing, with prices reflecting a slight decline in the early trading session on October 27 [1] - The main contract for white sugar closed at 5439 yuan/ton, down by 12 yuan, with a decrease of 0.22%, and trading within a range of 5414 to 5451 yuan [1] - As of late October, sugar production in Guangxi is nearing the end of its sales phase, with the new crushing season expected to start in early November [1] Group 2 - In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi is projected to produce 6.465 million tons of sugar, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points [1] - Cumulative sugar sales reached 6.0229 million tons by the end of September, an increase of 112,900 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 93.16%, down by 2.45 percentage points [1] - The industrial inventory at the end of September stood at 442,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.07%, while the monthly sales for September were 266,600 tons, a decrease of 186,800 tons year-on-year [1]

【10月27日云南白糖现货市场糖价小幅下调】10月27日早盘，国内白糖期货维持盘整。上午主力2601合 约收盘价5439元/吨，下跌12元，跌幅0.22%，最高5451元，最低5414元。 云南多家制糖企业点火烘 炉，准备开启新榨季生产，预计10月底或11月初有企业开榨。 省内主要制糖企业集团库存不多，报价 较稳定。今日上午昆明市场制糖企业集团报价5640元/吨，较上周五下调10元。 商家在祥云、广通、大 理仓库报价下调至5510 - 5530元/吨一线，成交情况待察。 云南省2024/25榨季累计产糖241.88万吨。截 至9月30日，累计销糖221.40万吨，销糖率91.54%，同比小幅下降，工业库存20.47万吨。9月单月销糖 13.17万吨。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 FUL hexun.con 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic white sugar futures are stabilizing, with prices reflecting a slight decline as the new sugar production season approaches in Guangxi [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 27, the main 2601 contract closed at 5439 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan, a decrease of 0.22%, with a high of 5451 yuan and a low of 5414 yuan [1] - Current spot prices from sugar enterprises remain around 5700 yuan/ton, while merchant quotes have been adjusted down to between 5620 and 5680 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Sales Data - For the 2024/25 sugar production season, Guangxi is expected to produce 6.465 million tons of sugar, an increase of 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points [1] - As of the end of September, cumulative sugar sales reached 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 112,900 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 93.16%, down by 2.45 percentage points [1] - The industrial inventory at the end of September stood at 442,100 tons, an increase of 17.07% year-on-year, while the monthly sales in September were 266,600 tons, a decrease of 18.68% year-on-year [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - **Dates**: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - **Rubber Series**: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - **Important Information**: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - **Important Information**: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].