研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,336 | 15 | 0.28% | 2,917 | 134 | 18,406 | 423 | | SR01 | | 5,370 | 17 | 0.32% | 175,985 | -3844 | 417,739 | 1039 | | SR05 | | 5,319 | 17 | 0.32% | 46,621 | 4626 | 179,121 | 8502 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Stabilizing Foreign Prices, Declining Zhengzhou Sugar Prices [1] Report Author - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Report Structure - Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies [2][5][46] - Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis [2][5][46] - Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking [2][5][46] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production forecasts for Brazil and India. International sugar prices show signs of bottoming out and are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - In the domestic market, sugar mills are gradually starting operations, increasing supply and sales pressure. However, considering factors such as tightened imports of syrup and premixes and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, which provides some support for the futures price. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. Key Points by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Given the significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, which are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and considering the high domestic sugar production cost and the current futures price near 5300, it is advisable to consider short - term long positions at low prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Go long on the January contract and short the May contract [4]. - Option strategy: Sell put options at low levels [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The ISO predicts a 1.63 - million - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption growing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Datagro has revised down the supply surplus forecast to 1 million tons, mainly due to reduced production in Brazil and India [8]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level. Although there are some changes in production factors, the overall output is still considerable. For example, the 2025/26 production is expected to be 45.02 million tons [9]. - In Thailand, the new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with an expected increase in exports [24]. - In India, the 2025/26 sugar season has started. The expected net sugar production is 30.95 million tons, and the government has approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar [33]. - **Domestic Market Conditions** - Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting operations. In Yunnan, 4 sugar mills have started operations as of now, and more are expected to start soon. In Guangxi, the number of operating sugar mills is also increasing [37]. - Import profits are relatively high, and in October, the import volume increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of sugar was 3.9054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [45]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - By October 31, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [14]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to November last year [20]. - **Thailand** - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. From January to September 2025, exports were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons [24]. - **India** - As of November 19, 2025, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra had started operations, and they had crushed 11.727 million tons of sugarcane, producing 868,100 tons of sugar [33]. - **China** - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, the total import volume of syrup and premixes was 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 2、基差：柳州现货5670，基差317（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进口 冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任 ...

中缅边境芒信通道"甜蜜产业"启航 首日通关甘蔗逾千吨 中新网普洱11月23日电 (付城盟)23日，位于中缅边境的云南孟连口岸芒信通道迎来2025至2026年度甘蔗 榨季跨境运输首批车队。当日的甘蔗通关量逾1000吨，为期半年多的甘蔗榨季，通关量预计达60万吨。 芒信通道位于中国西南边陲云南省普洱市孟连傣族拉祜族佤族自治县，是普洱市通向缅甸的通道之一。 勐康出入境边防检查站芒信分站有关负责人介绍，近年来，中缅双方不断加大农业经济合作，中国一些 企业到缅甸种植甘蔗，然后运回中国生产加工，芒信通道成为缅甸甘蔗入境的重要通道。一直以来，该 分站始终聚焦"境外种植、境内生产"跨境农业合作模式需求，以"靠前服务、精准普法、高效通关"三维 发力，全力保障这一"甜蜜产业"跨境运输顺畅通关。 榨季启动前，芒信分站主动搭建"警企连心桥"，组织驻地糖企召开座谈会，围绕运输时间节点、车辆运 力调配、驾驶员资质审核等核心诉求，与企业负责人深入交流，现场破解"高峰时段拥堵""雨季通关保 障"等难题，提前对外发布新榨季甘蔗运输入境通关提醒；此外，民警深入企业开展"送法上门"活动， 引导企业和从业人员依法合规开展业务，为榨季高效运转筑牢前期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **International Market**: The market is in a low - level consolidation phase. There is a weak expectation in the industry, with an anticipated restorative production increase and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the accelerated crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil and the expected significant increase in India's sugar production. Although sugar prices have dropped to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol is still pulling down the valuation. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's production and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - **Domestic Market**: It presents a situation of weak reality. The market expects a stable - to - increasing domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season, but the production cost in the Guangxi region has risen due to the decline in the sugar yield rate. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - **International Market**: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29), the WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%), and the price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). As of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots. As of November 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 610,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), and it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - **Domestic Market**: The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons), and the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 120,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons). The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - **International Market**: Low - level consolidation. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar will fluctuate weakly. Although sugar prices are at a phased low, the corn ethanol cost is still pulling down the valuation. Focus on Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's production and industrial policies [3][29]. - **Domestic Market**: Weak reality. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase steadily, but the production cost in Guangxi has risen due to the lower sugar yield. Zhengzhou sugar follows the raw sugar trend, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The out - of - quota import cost is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain high. Pay attention to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3.3 Macro Data - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29). - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%) [5]. 3.4 Price and Basis - The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 7,971 lots. According to the latest CFTC position report (New York raw sugar), as of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2,809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3,250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots, with a slight decrease in net long positions [9]. 3.5 Industry Data - Supply and Demand - **Global Supply and Demand**: The ISO expects a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. - **Brazil**: As of November 1, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 556 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; sugar production was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%; alcohol production was 26.95 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.91%; the cumulative ratio of sugar - producing cane was 51.97%, compared with 48.59% in the same period of the previous year. - **India**: As of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), with 3.4 million tons of sugar consumed for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons). - **Thailand**: The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. - **China**: The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that the sugar imports in October 2025 were 750,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [17][18].

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]

等待反弹继续做空 白糖周报 2025/11/22 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周原糖价格震荡，截至周五ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报14.77美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.08美分/磅，跌幅0.54%；价 差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.49美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.01美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差震荡，报5.6美元/吨，较之前一周上涨0.9美 元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报98美元/吨，较之前一周上涨3美元/吨。国内方面，本周郑糖价格下跌，截至周五郑糖1月合约收盘价报 5353元/吨，较之前一周下跌117元/吨，跌幅2.14%。广西现货报5480元/吨，较之前一周下跌180元/吨；基差走弱，报127元/吨，之前一周 下跌63元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报51元/吨，较之前一周下跌15元/吨；配额外现货进口利润小幅下跌， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful harvest of sugar beets in Shufu County, with an average income exceeding 2,700 yuan per mu, indicating a significant agricultural achievement [1][30]. Group 1: Agricultural Efficiency - The use of advanced agricultural technology has led to a doubling of harvesting efficiency, with specialized harvesting machines reducing the time required for manual harvesting from half a month to less than two days [12][13]. - Smart agricultural practices, including precision planting and intelligent irrigation systems, have improved crop yield and quality, with expected yields surpassing 6 tons per mu and higher sugar content compared to previous years [23][22]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The financial benefits for farmers are substantial, with a projected income of over 800,000 yuan from 300 mu of sugar beets, based on a purchase price of 450 yuan per ton [30]. - The establishment of long-term purchase agreements with sugar factories ensures stable sales channels for farmers, alleviating concerns about market access [27][29]. Group 3: Industry Development - The article discusses the growth of the sugar beet industry in the Kashgar region, with a total expected production of 1.08 million tons, marking a significant milestone [46]. - The integration of a complete industrial chain, including sugar production and by-product development, has been facilitated by partnerships with various enterprises, enhancing the overall value of sugar beets [42][36].