合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 涨，注意风险控制。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 370 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11820 | | 25672 | 1552 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -145 | | 7210 | -60 ...

ljis 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 -1000 -2000 2020 2021 - 2022 - 2024 2023 2025 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 1500 14000 13000 - 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 500 11000 11000 400 0 10000 10000 300 -500 200 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 8000 2024/12/18 2025/1/8 025/2/19 025/4/16 025/1/1: 025/3/12 025/2/12 025/3/19 025/4/ 025/4/30 2025/5/" 025/1/2 2025/2/. )25/2/2 025/3/ 025/3/2 2025/1/ 025/4/ 025/4/2 025/1/2 024/12/2 025/5/1 rsis -521 卫星近月(约15d) -- 卫星现货 卫星远月(约45d) 现货-近月 现货-远月 东明成交量 东明底价 东明成交 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短期产能利用率有望逐步回升。br2506合约短线建议在11000-11800区间交易。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -5 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11370 | 24034 | -1070 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日 ...

ljis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/8 | | | 指标 | 4/9 | 4/29 | 4/30 | 5/6 | 5/7 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11350 | 11225 | 11080 | 11315 | 11375 | 60 | 150 | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 28799 | 32024 | 25984 | 25743 | 25104 | -639 | -6920 | | | 15:11 | BR2505成交量 | 188476 | 138804 | 128025 | 113965 | 121503 | 7538 | -17301 | | | | 仓单数量 | 16740 | 13660 | 11640 | 11640 | 11830 | 190 | -1830 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.60 | 11.72 | 11.16 | 11.06 | 10.61 | 0 | - 1 | | | | ...

ljis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/7 | | | 指标 | 4/8 | 4/28 | 4/29 | 4/30 | 5/6 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11925 | 11360 | 11225 | 11080 | 11315 | 235 | -45 | | | | | | | | | | | -13063 | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 23877 | 38806 | 32024 | 25984 | 25743 | -241 | | | | 播 正 | BR2505成交量 | 152229 | 130875 | 138804 | 128025 | 113965 | -14060 | -16910 | | | | 仓単数量 | 16740 | 13790 | 13660 | 11640 | 11640 | 0 | -2150 | | | | 虚实比 | 7.13 | 14.07 | 11.72 | 11.16 | 1 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-05-07 - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory. The inventory level is at the mid - year position, and it is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or load - reduction operation stage due to the holiday, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the br2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 and 11,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 25,104, with a week - on - week decrease of 639. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,470 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 190 tons [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 275 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.15 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.92 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 59.09 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 790 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 554.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1000 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons [2]. 3.1.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in manufacturers is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1790 tons; the weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in traders is 5100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1490 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The continuous increase of raw material butadiene has slightly alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises has increased. As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

下 灰安期货 | | | 指标 | 4/7 | 4/28 | 4/29 | 4/30 | 5/5 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 12552 | 11360 | 11225 | 11080 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 26579 | 38806 | 32024 | 25984 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | 居间 | BR2505成交量 | 4108 | 130875 | 138804 | 128025 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 仓単数量 | 16740 | 13790 | 13660 | 11640 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 虚实比 | 7.94 | 14.07 | 11.72 | 11.16 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 基差(顺丁-BR) | વેર | 140 | 275 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market has support at the lower end but limited driving forces. The market for butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the short - term, with cis - butadiene rubber showing support due to relatively low valuation despite a lack of fundamental drivers [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Judgment - **Static and Dynamic Valuation of Cis - butadiene Rubber Futures**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation has shifted slightly upward due to improved butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit for the market is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical lower valuation limit is 10,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices have rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene market has improved. Supply - side开工率 remains high, but the expectation of increased maintenance has risen. Short - term imports are limited, demand has increased, and inventories at production enterprises and ports have declined, strengthening price support [5] - **Cis - butadiene Fundamentals**: With the decline in the cost side, processing profits have increased, and the supply - side开工率 is expected to rise. Demand has significantly strengthened, and substitution demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the current fundamentals have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber [5] - **Cis - butadiene Futures**: The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the previous sharp decline, the valuation provides some support. The market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short - term, and future trends will depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [6] 3.2 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply Side** - **Capacity Expansion**: Butadiene capacity has been expanding to match the growth of downstream industries, with the expansion rate and amplitude being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [11] - **开工率 and Output**: The current开工率 remains high, and the output shows certain trends over time [12][13] - **Maintenance Situation**: Many enterprises have carried out or are planning maintenance, which will affect the supply [14] - **Import and Export**: Short - term imports are limited due to the small amount of ocean - going supplies [5] - **Demand Side** - **Capacity of Downstream Industries**: The capacities of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, with specific new capacity additions in different years and regions [16][17][24][25][26] - **开工率 and Operation of Downstream Enterprises**: The开工率 of downstream enterprises shows different trends, and some enterprises have operation and maintenance plans [21][22][23] - **Inventory Side**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories and port inventories have both declined, and the short - term port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, strengthening price support [5] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Supply** - **Output and开工率**: The output and开工率 show certain trends, and some enterprises have production and maintenance plans [36][37] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of cis - butadiene rubber production show different trends over time [38][39][40] - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show certain trends [41][42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is at a relatively high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventories, futures inventories, and trader inventories [46][47][48] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Demand** - **Tire Demand**: The inventory and开工率 of tires (full - steel and semi - steel) in Shandong Province show certain trends, which affect the demand for cis - butadiene rubber [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

中国合成橡胶行业市场规模测算逻 辑模型 头豹词条报告系列 王振阳、陈祖杰 | 年份 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据(人民币元) | 10,619 | 9,583 | 7,982 | 11,099 | 11,363 | 11,557.31 | 11,754.94 | 11,955.95 | 12,160.39 | 12,368.34 | | B1:增长率(b-a)/a*100% | - | -9.76% | -16.71% | 39.05% | 2.38% | 1.71% | 1.71% | 1.71% | 1.71% | 1.71% | 合成橡胶行业规模 | 1. 合成橡胶市场规模 | (结论图) | P3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 合成橡胶市场规模 | | P4 | | 3. 合成橡胶产量 | | P5 | | 4. ...