Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China is expanding its coverage to include more industries, with significant policy advancements in 2023 aimed at enhancing carbon emissions trading and promoting low-carbon technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon emissions trading market has officially expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, following the power generation sector [1][2]. - The government aims to gradually include key products from the petrochemical, chemical, paper, and aviation industries into the carbon market starting in 2026 [1][2]. - The expansion follows a "mature first, include first" principle, with scientific assessments submitted to the State Council for approval [1][2]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The cement industry was prioritized for inclusion due to its mature production processes and data foundation, while the aluminum smelting sector has a relatively low direct carbon emission impact [2]. - Approximately 730 steel enterprises are engaged in annual carbon emissions accounting, with long-process steel companies accounting for 90% of total emissions in the sector [2]. - The chemical industry presents complexities in product inclusion due to the variety of products and their respective emissions profiles, with over 200 million tons of key products currently reported [3]. Group 3: Paper Industry Dynamics - The paper industry, while not yet included in the carbon market, has a significant relationship with carbon emissions due to its energy consumption patterns, with coal accounting for 75% of its energy use [4]. - The industry utilizes self-owned power plants, which are already included in the carbon market, leading to potential challenges in accounting for emissions from self-generated steam [5]. - Opportunities for the paper industry include enhancing energy efficiency and utilizing biomass in self-owned power plants, which can contribute to carbon reduction efforts [6][7]. Group 4: CCER Mechanism and Development - The CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) mechanism currently allows for a 5% offset in the carbon market, with an estimated demand of approximately 400 million tons post-expansion [9][10]. - The existing CCER methodologies cover limited sectors, necessitating the development of additional methodologies to meet the growing demand for carbon credits [9][10]. - Expanding methodologies to include waste treatment and other sectors can facilitate low-carbon transitions and enhance the overall effectiveness of the carbon market [10].

Group 1 - The central theme of the article revolves around the insights from a high-level meeting and the market sentiment in July, particularly in the technology sector [1][3]. - The sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee focused on advancing the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing the need to address challenges such as low-price disorderly competition and to guide companies towards improving product quality [3][4]. - The policy direction for the second half of the year is expected to focus on reducing overcapacity and eliminating vicious competition, which has been highlighted in recent discussions and articles [3][4]. Group 2 - Specific industries that may benefit from the policy shift towards reducing internal competition and overcapacity include the new energy sector, automotive industry, traditional energy sectors like coal, and traditional manufacturing industries such as steel [4]. - The anticipated policy changes could lead to a reduction in supply while maintaining demand, potentially allowing prices to recover and improving financial performance for companies within these sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant declines in the first half of the year, with seven out of the top ten worst-performing stocks entering the delisting preparation period, highlighting the challenges faced by companies in the retail and other sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Company-Specific Insights - Renrenle (人人乐) has experienced a nearly 95% decline in stock price, with a current market capitalization of less than 150 million yuan [1]. - Renrenle, once a leading player in the retail sector with nearly 150 stores and peak revenues exceeding 12.9 billion yuan in 2012, has faced continuous losses since its first loss post-IPO in 2012 [1]. - As of 2023, Renrenle's audited net assets were -387 million yuan, worsening to -404 million yuan in 2024, triggering delisting risk warnings [1]. Group 2: Market Performance Overview - The top ten worst-performing stocks in the A-share market for the first half of the year include Renrenle, with a decline of 94.72%, followed by other companies such as Gongzhi (工智退) and Tuisu Pengbo (退市鵬博) with declines of 93.25% and 92.86% respectively [3]. - Excluding stocks that have entered the delisting preparation period and ST stocks, the next worst performers include Tianmao Group (天茂集团) with a 41.33% decline and Zhongbai Group (中百集团) with a 40.52% decline [4]. - The solar equipment sector is notably represented in the list of poor performers, indicating a broader downturn in the industry [5].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire, with a trend strength of 1; Silver: Continuing to surge, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10] - Copper: Stronger LME copper spot prices support the price, trend strength is 1 [2][12][14] - Aluminum: Bullish, Alumina: Sharp rebound, Aluminum alloy: Bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 1, 0, 0 respectively [2][15][17] - Zinc: Short - term bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][18] - Lead: Bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][20][21] - Tin: Tight present but weak future expectations, trend strength is 0 [2][23][27] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and the smelting end limits the upside potential; Stainless steel: Weakening supply and demand, steel prices oscillating at low levels, trend strengths are both 0 [2][28][31] - Lithium carbonate: Increasing warehouse receipts but low total volume, short - term oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][32][34] - Industrial silicon: Affected by production cut news, pay attention to the upside space; Polysilicon: Market sentiment fermenting, also pay attention to the upside space, trend strengths are both 0 [2][35][38] - Iron ore: Repeated expectations, range - bound oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][39][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation; Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 0 [2][42][45] - Ferrosilicon: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation; Silicomanganese: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 1 [2][47][49] - Coke: Releasing sentiment, bullish oscillation; Coking coal: Inspection disturbances continuing to ferment, bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 0 and 1 respectively [2][50][53] - Steam coal: Demand yet to be released, wide - range oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][55][58] - Log: As the main contract approaches delivery, the game intensifies, trend strength is 0 [2][59][61] - p - Xylene: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; PTA: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG: Unilateral weakening [2][62][63] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2508 was 775.28, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 774.06, with a night - session increase of 0.12%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2508 was 8796, with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the night - session closing price was 8821.00, with a night - session increase of 0.88% [6] - **News**: Fed officials stated they are not ready to support a rate cut in the July meeting; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [7][11] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Copper main contract was 78,890, with a daily increase of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 79790, with a night - session increase of 1.14%. LME copper inventories decreased by 400 to 93,075, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread widened to 319.83 [12] - **News**: India's new copper smelter starts processing ore; JX Metal in Japan cuts refined copper production; China's May copper ore imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month [12][14] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20445, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2585. The closing price of SHFE Alumina main contract was 2948, and the closing price of Aluminum alloy main contract was 19715 [15] - **News**: The EU may lower tariffs on the US to reach a trade agreement [17] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22240, with a daily increase of 0.88%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 3025 to 119850 [18] - **News**: Not mentioned Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Lead main contract was 17225, with a daily increase of 0.20%. LME lead inventories decreased by 2000 to 273250 [20] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [21] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Tin main contract was 267,270, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300 [24] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of Stainless steel main contract was 12,635 [28] - **News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters trial production; A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumes production; An Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [28][31] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,580. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 60,600, up 400 [32] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 434 to 60745 [33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720, and the closing price of PS2508 was 31,715 [36] - **News**: Longi Green Energy's solar plant in Indonesia starts operation [36] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 705.5, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The price of PB ore was 701.0, unchanged [39] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0, hitting a new low since February 2022 [39] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2510 was 2,973, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.39% [43] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; a military parade will be held in Beijing [44][45] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Ferrosilicon 2508 was 5422, and the closing price of Manganese Silicon 2508 was 5672 [47] - **News**: The prices of Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon in the spot market increased [47][48] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2509 was 819.5, with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1395.5, with a daily increase of 0.58% [51] - **News**: Northern port coking coal prices are reported; CCI metallurgical coal index changes [51][52] Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading, with a previous opening price of 931.6000 [56] - **News**: Southern port and domestic origin prices of steam coal are reported [57] Log - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 818, with a daily increase of 0.9% [59] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [61] p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Fundamentals**: Not mentioned - **News**: Not mentioned

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding bankruptcy reorganization, emphasizing the increased complexity and requirements for companies seeking to revive through this process. Group 1: Key Practical Points of Bankruptcy Reorganization - If a bankrupt entity has lost financial independence due to the unified management of funds, it can undergo consolidated reorganization, followed by a hearing to gather opinions before a ruling [1] - Reorganization and restructuring can proceed simultaneously; if there are many small creditors with low repayment rates, a small creditor group can be established to improve their repayment ratio [1] - The liquidation team should hire intermediaries and experts to ensure asset preservation and value increase, introducing suitable strategic investors to implement the reorganization plan [1] - In cases of multiple related companies in bankruptcy, a competitive method can be used to appoint a joint administrator; for large entities with complete capacity and technical support, industry transformation and investment attraction can be employed [1][2] Group 2: Conditions and Strategies for Reorganization - The conditions for consolidated reorganization include a high degree of confusion among related enterprises' personalities and assets, making it difficult to distinguish between them without harming creditor interests [2] - For projects unsuitable for consolidated reorganization, a "bottom-up" reorganization order can be established, allowing subsidiaries to complete reorganization first, ensuring that lower-tier companies can repay internal loans to upper-tier companies [2] Group 3: Improving Reorganization Success Rates - The pre-reorganization model can enhance the success rate and efficiency of reorganization by incorporating assets and increasing shares to repay debts, thereby improving debt repayment rates and acceptance of the reorganization plan [3] Group 4: Challenges Faced by Companies - The average proportion of current liabilities for private listed companies reached 67% in 2023, significantly higher than the 48% for state-owned enterprises, indicating a reliance on short-term debt financing [7] - Among private enterprises entering reorganization from 2022 to 2024, 62% faced "short-term loans for long-term investments" issues, and 38% involved major shareholder fund occupation, with a secondary reorganization rate of 29% [8] Group 5: State-Owned Enterprises and Reorganization - The proportion of state-owned enterprise reorganization cases increased from 9% in 2022 to 15% in 2024, reflecting significant structural changes in ownership [9] - Supply-side reforms have led to successful transformations, such as a provincial steel group replacing outdated capacity with special steel production lines, improving profit margins [9]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/06/25 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/06/18 | 3200 | 3120 | 3190 | 3230 | 3160 | 3220 | | 2025/06/19 | 3200 | 3070 | 3180 | 3230 | 3160 | 3190 | | 2025/06/20 | 3200 | 3070 | 3180 | 3230 | 3150 | 3190 | | 2025/06/23 | 3200 | 3070 | 3170 | 3180 | 3150 | 3190 | | 2025/06/24 | 3150 | 3060 | 3150 | 3170 | 3140 | 3180 | | 变化 | -50 | -10 | -20 | -10 | -10 | -10 | | 日期 | 天津热 ...

南钢股份（600282）公告，公司副董事长、董事李国忠因工作变动申请辞去副董事长、董事等职务，辞 职后将不再在公司及其控股子公司任职，辞职申请自送达公司董事会之日起生效。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Core Points - The Trump administration is advancing another round of tariffs, which trade experts believe have stronger legal grounds than previous tariffs imposed on various countries [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into industries deemed critical to national security, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals, likely leading to tariffs on foreign-made products in these sectors [1][2] - The current 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum are impacting nearly $200 billion worth of goods, which is almost four times the amount during Trump's first term [1] - The expansion of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is seen as a potential move towards near-global tariffs, affecting a wide range of imported goods [2] Industry Impact - The anticipated tariffs on pharmaceuticals are expected to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [2] - The scope of the Section 232 tariffs has broadened to include consumer goods such as dishwashers and washing machines, which are now classified as critical to national security [2] - Ongoing investigations under Section 232 are injecting uncertainty into trade negotiations, as countries are wary of committing to agreements while these investigations are pending [5] Economic Implications - The current approach to tariffs may lead to increased inflation risks, as the range of products affected has expanded significantly compared to previous tariffs focused on upstream metals [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the new tariffs [6] - The potential outcomes of the expanded tariffs could include reduced product variety, inflation, or disrupted demand due to reliance on imported raw materials [6]